[1930s AH] - Ethiopia Takes The Colonies?

See above. What if Menelik II is more aggressive in prosecuting the war, and sees to continuing the war after the Battle of Adawa? Could he successfully prosecute the war to an extent of conquering Italian Somaliland and Italian Eritrea, and moreover, could he hold them in a post-war treaty?

And as a sidenote perhaps dipping slightly into ASB territory, could the British have been convinced to relinquish British Somaliland over to the Ethiopians in exchange for continuing the initial purposes of the protectorate in: "securing a supply market, checking the traffic in slaves, and excluding the interference of foreign powers."
 
If Menelik takes Somalia and Eritrea, the Italians will be back. His whole strategy in the war was to show the Italians he could win, which he accomplished at Adwa. If he takes the Italian colonies, the Italians have to deal with actual territorial losses rather than just a humiliation. They'd at least retake their colonies, and depending on how that goes reinvade Ethiopia.
 
Menelik don't have the resources to continue the war, expecially in that manner, after Adwua even if victorious, his army was in an horrible situation in terms of supply and logistic chain; basically he risk to find himself in the same condition of the italian aka overstreched.

Italy seeked terms due to a mix of political internal crisis due to the fall of Crispi and protest for waste of money and men in colonial adventure, so everybody in Rome decided to cut the loss (even because many will have not agreed to the adventure from the beginning)...but the ethiopians actively try to take Eritrea mean that a retreat from the colonies is not an option and the war will continue and even if costly victory achieved.

To take over Italian Somalia first need to full pacify Ogaden as his control of the territory at the time was...iffy
 
Menelik got the best result he could from Adwa. His control was very tenuous over the army, since Ethiopia was very backwards by European standards in terms of organisation and society. What he could have done was use the moment to push for reforms of Ethiopia more than what OTL occurred.

Even if he took Eritrea and Somalia, he'd be having to fight quite a bit of resistance there which would tie down Ethiopian resources for years to come.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Menelik couldn't pursue the Italians into Eritrea or Somalia without French and Russian help. Neither would because they had achieved their real objective with the fall of Crispi. With Crispi gone, the French and Russians began a policy of reconciliation with the Italians to drive them out of the arms of the English and the Triple Alliance- more the former than the latter at first

Menelik himself had no real need to pursue the Italians and the prisoners gave him leverage. He had gotten what he wanted.

The Ethiopians, Russians and French turn to the bigger prize of the Sudan in a race with the British

For the Ethiopians to get the colonies, things need to go real bad in Italy. Rudini wouldn't mind leaving Africa but the King would have none of it. If the rioting gets a lot worse so the question is Africa or the throne, he's likely to see reason.

If that happens, the British probably end up buying Menelik off with a nice chunk of the Sudan, Ethiopia allies with the French and the Russians as insurance against the British and there is no invasion under Mussolini
 
Of course, let me respond this to other questions.

Okay, why would Ethiopia want to gain the Sudan when Menelik is barely trying to hold his own territory. Menelik, in addition to fighting the war with Italy and beginning the westernization of Ethiopia, also spent the majority of reign fighting a low-level succession war with the son of his predecessor, Ras Mengesha Yohannes. (Along with the latter's successors, it's a complicated mess.)
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Of course, let me respond this to other questions.

Okay, why would Ethiopia want to gain the Sudan when Menelik is barely trying to hold his own territory. Menelik, in addition to fighting the war with Italy and beginning the westernization of Ethiopia, also spent the majority of reign fighting a low-level succession war with the son of his predecessor, Ras Mengesha Yohannes. (Along with the latter's successors, it's a complicated mess.)

The Ethiopian-Italian war needs to be put into the general scramble for Africa. Menelik has the support of Russia and France to fight the Italians whom he defeats.

With that done, Franco-Russian interests move towards the Sudan. The British make the first move sending Kitchener to defeat the Mahdi who is rather loosely supported by Menelik

The French move East towards Fashoda while the Ethiopians move west with the intention of making the Nile the border between them. The whole region is a no mans land with no real government

The scheme isn't bad if the British get bogged down fighting in the north.

In the end, the British are rather generous when the Ethiopian Sudanese border is settled
 
Top