1920: Progressivism Triumphant, the Fifth Party System and Beyond A Wikibox TL

If anyone has questions about specific states, candidates, or anything of that sort, please let me know. The Senate and Governor elections should come next, and the consequences and aftermath of the House elections will be posted at a later date.
 
I must at first admit that I have had my eye on this project since it started, but I have been consistently.... delayed.... from putting my thoughts to paper. I also feel that I must explain the philosophy of the criticisms that follows beforehand; while I hold that all timelines are inherently plausible on the basis of unknowable variables, the best stories are those that adhere to a strict sense of.... well let us call it "strict" plausibility, where the variables in question are ones that can be observed and understood. When someone is capable of visualizing the equation and operating the mathematics they are left with fewer questions as to the "how" and, therefore, tend not to be as skeptical as to the concept as a whole. Now this isn't absolute, but in my experience that tends to usually be the case.
Now my own criticisms may be subject to innate biases, though given the time period I don't believe it should be an issue, and I won't claim to know more than the next. Take from the following what you may.
Now then, let us see:
So this is problematic in several different ways. While Herbert Hoover was indeed popular amongst some Progressives, he was actually incredibly weak outside of the intellectual circles, and his own campaign was mortally wounded when he opted to try and defeat Hiram Johnson on his home turf. Hoover also fairly definitively threw in his lot with Harding after the Republican Convention, endorsing him and actively decrying the movement to establish a Third Party. He doesn't much fit the profile that you are looking for.
Most at the time were united around the idea of nominating Senator Bob La Follette, least those that weren't Georgists, but there were discussions that also revolved around the possibility of nominating either North Dakota Governor Lynn Frazier or Henry Ford. Obviously La Follette would be the strongest candidate of those that had been considered and the most likely in those scenarios where the Committee of 48 actually succeeds in putting together a ticket and a platform, but the caveats to that are you wouldn't have a split amongst the Progressives, and there is a strong possibility that the Socialists might withdraw their own ticket and fuse with the Progressives.
The alternative to that then is to nominate Henry Ford which would have caused .... well quite a scene. The Socialists would still be running their own ticket as they'd never agree to endorse someone like Ford, and it is actually conceivable that Hiram Johnson might bolt given Ford was a strong supporter of the United States joining the League of Nations, least at the time anyways.
As for running-mates... well I suppose I'd throw Kansas Governor Henry Justin Allen at Henry Ford, though that is in part because I am not sure what Allen's views are in regards to the League. Hiram Johnson has a slew to pick from given the number of Progressives that made up the "irreconcilables", but I think that Nebraska Senator George Norris fits better in a regional aspect as opposed to William Borah.
<Democrats and Prohibition>
Now this has its own issues. William Bryan was indeed nominated by the Prohibition Party in it's first go around that year, but for him to realistically accept that the Democrat's would need to nominate a "Wet" ticket. As you can imagine that is a tall order, and I've tried to wrap my head around it. The closest I could get was if Mitchell Palmer were to ally himself with Charles Murphy and endorse a "Wet" plank, which in this case would have been allowing light beers/wines/ciders, as well as a plank advocating for the recognition of the Irish Republic. The problem with that calculation though is that while Palmer would gain a number of delegations in the Northeast, especially important ones like New York and New Jersey, he is just as likely to lose delegations in the South and West that were "Dry", in this case the biggest loss being Georgia with 28. That means that Palmer would be in the ~380 range even taking all this into account. Assuming that he can make an arrangement with Cox and some of the other Northern delegations (Indiana and Connecticut) that would put him in the ~500 range.
There would need to be some sort of stampede in Palmer's favor, which actually is what the New York gambit was hoped to trigger, and I may be undercutting Palmer's support slightly as some delegates might care less whether the platform is "Wet" or "Dry". The "Two-Thirds Rule" for nominations would have to go so as to then allow a nomination by majority, however its repeal would in and of itself require 2/3rds of the vote in favor so.... well there's the rub. I'd argue that it manages to get repealed as a desperation measure, and indeed there were talks about repealing it in both 1920 and 1924; both times it was nixed by delegates favorable to McAdoo.
Ironically, given the amount of influence that Charles Murphy would have had in the nomination battle, it is virtually certain that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would have ended up being nominated for the Vice Presidency, partially in an effort to mollify those who had favored McAdoo (Roosevelt lead the minority of New York delegates who favored him), partially to add.... star power for lack of a better term; they thought that the Roosevelt name would gain them an advantage.
Now from this point, William Jennings Bryan running for the Prohibition Party nomination makes sense as he was for strict enforcement of the 18th Amendment, and while the Republican Party was in sympathy with him on this he could never throw his lot in with them. An argument could be made for Bryan going over to the Progressives as his name was mentioned in some circles, but he was strongly in favor of the League and might have seen Ford's nomination as a coup of sorts, leaving each faction as incompatible with his beliefs. On the topic of a running-mate, while Billy Sunday was also nominated, he actually had endorsed Harding earlier that July and wouldn't run. Given the conduct I have seen in the records of the Democratic Convention, I would strongly suggest Richmind P. Hobson of Alabama in his stead.
The Socialists would be a mite stronger given the divided field, but a lot of damage had already been done amongst the schism that cut the Party in two between its Anti-War and Pro-War factions, and much of its potential voter base would be drawn in by the likes of Ford, Johnson or Bryan. The idea of the Wilson Administration pardoning any Leftists is unfortunately laughable considering how Wilson himself reacted when such petitions were put before him, and truth be told there was not much public sympathy for the Socialists in the first place given their perceived connections to the Bolsheviks; for many, while prison time was a tad much, they didn't mind them being censored from the political arena.
......
Now you'll have to forgive me as, while I have more to say, this has taken a while to write up, and I need to concentrate on other matters for the time being.
 
Now you'll have to forgive me as, while I have more to say, this has taken a while to write up, and I need to concentrate on other matters for the time being.
Thank you for the criticisms, I’ll take it into consideration.
Edit: Yes, some of the early parts of this timeline don’t quite come together as well as I wish they would. After I finish with the 1922 midterms, I’ll try to rework it so it flows better.
 
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Thank you for the criticisms, I’ll take it into consideration.
Edit: Yes, some of the early parts of this timeline don’t quite come together as well as I wish they would. After I finish with the 1922 midterms, I’ll try to rework it so it flows better.
Does that mean retcons are happening? Will that mean that most of the stuff in 1920 will be changed?
 
Does that mean retcons are happening? Will that mean that most of the stuff in 1920 will be changed?
As of right now, I think I am planning on retconning some of the earliest updates. If retcons do happen, then it will likely just include updates preceding “Republican Electoral Votes”, with minor rewrites to later updates in order to fit in with the rewritten 1920. The retconned updates would stay up though, but be removed from threadmarks and replaced with the new updates.
 
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Woodrow Wilson
It was the morning of January 15th, 1920. President Wilson, who had be incapacitated for weeks due to a severe stroke and bouts with the flu, was unconscious in his quarters. His aide, Dr. Cary T. Grayson, attempted to wake the President, but to no avail. Fearing the worst, Wilson is quickly rushed to the hospital, where he is pronounced dead on the scene due to complications from the flu.
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Soon after, Vice President Thomas R. Marshall was sworn in as the 29th President of the United States.

At this point in time, most of America had not known of Wilson's condition. The news spread quickly following his death, however. Any sympathy Marshall received due to the death of Wilson was quickly cancelled out by the scandal of hiding the President's condition from the general public, despite Marshall's claims that Wilson's condition was hidden from him as well.. President Marshall, though wishing to seek a term in his own right, announced that he would not be seeking a term of his own, weighed down heavily by the scandal. With the public against him, Marshall made no effort to push anything through Congress, relegated to the role of a caretaker President. However, Marshall made one important decision during the months after Wilson's death. With the Treaty of Versailles still in Congress, Marshall opted to compromise with the Reservationists, getting the Treaty ratified in February with most Lodge Reservations.
 
The Progressive, Democratic, and Prohibition Conventions of 1920
It all started at the Republican Convention. Dark horse Warren Harding won out after several ballots, much to the frustration of the party's Progressive wing. This frustration continued with the Vice Presidential nomination. When delegates overruled Harding's selection of Irvine Lenroot to nominate conservative governor Calvin Coolidge, that was the final straw. Hiram Johnson and Robert La Follette immediately stormed out of the convention, leading to progressive figures, such as Leonard Wood and Herbert Hoover from holding out on endorsing Harding. Determined not to split the vote, La Follette and Johnson opted to hold a Progressive Convention. A vicious deadlock ensued on the first three ballots, leading to some Progressives to push a "Draft Hoover" movement, which captured Hoover's attention. This led Hoover to jump in on the fourth ballot, placing him in a strong third. On the fifth ballot, Hoover jumped into second, behind Johnson, and rapidly consolidated delegates from the many dark horses present at the convention. After another two ballots of deadlock, Leonard Wood, seeing which way the wind was blowing, endorsed Hoover, giving a speech before the entire convention. On the ninth ballot, Hoover finally won out over Johnson as La Follette's support collapsed, leading to Hoover capturing the Progressive nomination. To minimize discontent from isolationist Progressives, Hoover chose Johnson ally William Borah as his Vice Presidential nominee.
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This news overjoyed Democrats, who believed they could repeat the 1912 election, triumphing over a split Republican Party once again. However, Democrats divided themselves, specifically over the issue of Prohibition. Attorney General A. Mitchell Palmer, campaigning on a continuation of Wilsonianism, led from early on in the convention, due to sympathy for the late Wilson from Democratic delegates. However, he lacked a clear path to the nomination, and opted to make a gambit that would, if successful, lead to his nomination. To try and push northeastern delegates to his side, Palmer called for a plank repealing some parts of Prohibition, allowing for weaker alcoholic beverages to be drunk, and a plank to recognize the Irish Republic. This gambit paid off for Palmer, as he expanded his lead over William McAdoo and James Cox, but he still fell short of the 2/3 delegates needed to be nominated. This strategy also backfired somewhat, as the dry faction of the party was opposed to these policies, and three-time candidate William Jennings Bryan was especially opposed. However, Bryan failed to have his name placed into contention as the convention drug on, as there were very few delegates sympathetic to him. Bryan also tried to stump for candidates outside of the top 3 contenders that were more aligned with him, but he could not crack into their support. As the ballots drug on to the 50s, with McAdoo and Cox both coming nowhere close to Palmer, delegates voted on and successfully repealed the 2/.3 rule, allowing Palmer to be nominated on the next ballot. As a show of gratitude for the northeastern delegates that led to his nomination, Franklin D. Roosevelt was nominated Vice President, which only increased anger from supporters of Prohibition and Bryan.
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Despite being a party man, Bryan found himself struggling to support the Democratic ticket. With the very overtly "Wet" ticket that had been nominated, Bryan decided to bolt from the party, running for the Prohibition nomination, and found himself easily nominated on the ballot. Since Palmer had pushed for support in the Northeast, Bryan pushed for support in the South, nominating war hero and former Representative Richmond P. Hobson of Alabama as his Vice Presidential candidate.
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The 1920 Election and Warren Harding
With four major candidates, the 1920 election seemed to be anyone's game after Bryan accepted the Prohibition nomination. However, Palmer, who ran mostly on the legacy of the Wilson administration, which had been falling apart at the time of his death, was though to be a clear fourth place. Palmer, however, continued his strategy of appealing to the northeast, hoping to narrowly place in the top three with a deadlocked electoral college. For Harding, his path to victory seemed to be holding the Republican northeast, while winning midwestern states such as Michigan and Ohio to place in the top three. Bryan mainly ran in the plains and upper south, hoping to peel off the states that opposed Palmer's wet campaign strategy. Bryan and Hoover both targeted newly enfranchised women voters, which would give them a massive edge over the other candidates. Hoover also ran a 48 state strategy, believing that he was the only candidate that could win outright. Hoover faced issues with some of the left-most Progressives, which supported his economic policy but disapproved of his interventionist tones. However, politicians such as Johnson and La Follette campaigned alongside Hoover despite their disagreements with him, leading many of these isolationist Progressives to back Eugene Debs, who had been running his campaign from prison. Many called for Debs to be pardoned, but Marshall refused to pardon him.

By early October, the race seemed to be neck and neck between Harding, Hoover, and Bryan. Literary Digest polls in several key states came back inconclusive, though Hoover held a narrow lead. It seemed that the election would go to the House of Representatives, which would likely cause a Harding victory. However, Harding's campaign came quickly tumbling down by mid-October. News broke that Harding had fathered an illegitimate child with his mistress, leading to major backlash from Republicans. Several withdrew their endorsement of Harding, and Harding stopped campaigning. Along with the obvious reasons for suspending speeches, the campaign had taken serious tolls on Harding's health, as the stress and aggressive campaigning complicated his existing health issues. Due to how close election day was, and Harding going silent except to his closest advisors, Republicans could not replace Harding on the ballot. As Election Day came, it looked to be an even race between Bryan and Hoover, with everything coming down to key states in the plains.
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But in the end, Hoover ran away with the election, narrowly winning the electoral college through wins in key states in the west and northeast. Bryan was able to win the upper south, along with a handful of states in the plains. Palmer's northeastern strategy led him to strong 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the typically Republican area, but he only won states in the deep south. The major shock of the night was Debs, who managed to win Oklahoma and Arizona, which would help to drive consolidation of Socialist parties in the coming years. Harding's affair had tanked his entire campaign, winning only 5 states and 12% of the vote. Along with his campaign, his affair being revealed tanked the Senator's already precarious health as well. Despite ending campaign events to rest in mid-October, Harding continued to be extremely stressed, and had been bedridden since late October, complaining of chest pains. His health did not recover, and he suffered a heart attack on election night, being pronounced dead after his wife called doctors into his quarters. Frank B. Willis, an ally of Harding who narrowly won his Senate election against strong Progressive and Socialist candidates, took Harding's Senate seat 3 days later, upon his win being announced.
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I see you did away with ultra-splitter Hiram Johnson, changed Bryan's running mate and made the Democrats nominate their (arguably) worst possible candidate, Palmer. Honestly, if they wanted to nominate a Wilsonian so much, they might as well have coercedMarshall to run for a full term instead and repeat the "don't change horses midstream" adage as much as possible.

Oh, and is that illegitimate child of Harding's real?
 
Marshall to run for a full term instead and repeat the "don't change horses midstream" adage as much as possible.
Marshall would’ve ran for a term of his own had Wilson’s condition been revealed publicly. But since he himself knew very little about it, and the massive scandal surrounding it being covered up, Marshall decided agains running.
Oh, and is that illegitimate child of Harding's real?
Yup, in 1919, Harding had his only child Elizabeth with his mistress Nan Britton. In OTL this was covered up until 1927, when Britton revealed the info to the public, here it gets leaked right in the midst of the election.
 
1922 Senate Elections should hopefully be posted tomorrow. I have almost everything done, I just have to finIsh making another box and do the write up.
 
1922 Senate Elections
In the state of New York, rapid expansion of the Progressive Party led to contention between the many factions of the party that were taking form. In New York, several candidates ran to take the Progressive nomination for Senate. Leading the pack was Fiorello La Guardia, President of the New York City Board of Aldermen. Guardia was an early supporter of Hoover, and backed both social and economic reform, also standing firmly opposed to the Tammany Hall political machine. New York Supreme Court Justice Robert F. Wagner ran on a similar platform to Guardia, but had the backing of Tammany Hall. 1920 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Franklin Roosevelt jumped ship to the Progressives, pushing for support from the many Democrats that adopted the Progressive banner. Roosevelt had the backing of former Governor Al Smith. Activist Lillian Wald also ran on an isolationist platform, campaigning extensively in the rural areas of the state, hoping that this would be enough to beat out the vote of New York City, which was being split among the other leading candidates. Finally, Progressive Congressman Louis Will ran, but his support was limited to the area around his district.
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In the end, La Guardia won out, thanks to massive support and turnout in New York City. His opposition to Tammany also brought him enough support from the rest of the state to beat out Wagner, who fell short in one of the first major battles between the wings of the party. In the general election, La Guardia defeated incumbent Republican Senator William M. Cadler, one of the many pickups that Progressives had in their first midterm.

A much closer election happened in New Jersey, where suffragette Alice Paul ran against Republican Senator Joseph S. Frelinghuysen and Democratic Governor Edward I. Edwards. Paul benefited from massive turnout among women, and being the only candidate from South Jersey, allowing her to run up the margin in these counties with little contention. Frelinghuysen and Edwards ran against each other in the Northern half of the state, but National Democrats had few resources to put into New Jersey, focused more on playing defense against the other parties. Edwards did well despite this, but fell into third place as Paul narrowly defeated Frelinghuysen.
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Progressives made massive gains in the Senate, but Prohibitionists and Socialists also had their successes. Socialists picked up Arizona due to their strength their, and narrowly won Indiana thanks to Eugene Debs running for the seat. Prohibition strength in Nebraska brought them that seat, but they managed to gain Tennessee as well. The Prohibition nominee was former governor Thomas Clarke Rye, a supporter of Prohibition and Bryan. He gained the support of both the Progressive and Republican Parties of Tennessee, as both wanted to see his opponent ousted. Incumbent Democratic Senator Kenneth McKellar was a supporter of Wilson's agenda, but took a sharp turn right following his death. He opposed the farm relief policies Hoover pushed for, which contributed to Rye's support from the other major parties. Despite the hatred of McKellar, Rye had an uphill battle overcoming Democratic strength in Tennessee. Bryan, Hobson, and Prohibition Governor of Tennessee Albert H. Roberts stumped extensively for Rye, and he won by less than 100 votes, a major success for Prohibitionists.
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Nationally, the outcome of the Senate mirrored that of the House. Progressives made big gains, putting them ahead of Republicans, at the cost of both them and the Democrats.
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With 36 seats, Progressives were able to appoint La Follette majority leader, with the backing of their caucus, the Socialists, some Prohibitionists, and several Republicans and Democrats representing states that Hoover won in 1920.
 
1922 Governor's Races
The year was 1922. While factional divides flared up across Senate and House elections, the many elections for governors were much less partisan. In traditionally Republican Connecticut, Democratic Representative Augustine Lonergan took a shot at running for governor. His opponent, Republican Charles A. Templeton, was much more conservative, having been Lieutenant Governor for the last 2 years. Lonergan had the backing of the Connecticut Progressive Party, which helped to put him over the line against Templeton. With Dems having narrowly won races in both Connecticut and Rhode Island, some Democratic officials wondered whether A. Mitchell Palmer's northeastern strategy in 1920 could work in the future. Palmer himself certainly thought so, sharing his thoughts on a local radio station, which added to speculation that he would run again in 1924.
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Though close, the Connecticut governor's race was relatively tame, nothing like the chaos of the Alabama governor's race. Prohibition Vice Presidential nominee Richmond P. Hobson ran for the Prohibition, Republican, and Progressive nominations, winning all three and officially running under the Prohibition party. The Democratic nomination was between moderate William W. Brandon, and Bibb Graves, who had the secret backing of the Ku Klux Klan, which had gone through a resurgence in some areas of the country, though it was most powerful in southern states such as Alabama. Graves narrowly won the nomination battle due to voter suppression by the Klan, which was documented and published in papers across the country. President Hoover threatened to get involved, stating he would use the 1871 Enforcement Act to prevent voter suppression if incumbent governor Thomas Kilby didn't take precautions against the KKK. Though some Southern Democrats continued to support Graves despite this, some, including Senator Oscar Underwood, refused to endorse a candidate in the race. Prohibition Party officeholders around the country came to stump for Hobson, but the most helpful was Senator Thomas E. Watson, a leading figure in the Prohibition Party's populist wing. Having abandoned the Democrats the previous year, Watson campaigned heavily across Alabama, and was vital in drudging up ancestral support from his Presidential runs to score a comfortable victory for Hobson.
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Through all of this, the Progressives managed to pick up several governorships, with Prohibitionists and Socialists picking up 1 each. Though Democrats had a net loss of one, they remained confident looking towards the future, hoping that they could rebound in the coming years despite massive losses in the Senate and House races. Republicans suffered the most losses for governor races, being caught at an extreme low point in the party. With the midterms finished, figures from all 5 main parties began looking forward to 1924, 1923 would be a year of international upheaval, continuing the post-war chaos of the last several years...
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So looking at the new updates, it seems that there are changes in the party coalitions from the previous update.

While the Democrats seem to still be occupied by Southern Landowner Conservatives(which are still in a power struggle against the Prohibition-supporting poor farmers), with the new changes, it seems as if there is a larger moderate to progressive faction thanks to Palmer. Particularly in the Northeast, the Progressive and Democratic Parties seems to be doing a fusion thing and possibly pushing for more labor reforms backed by immigrant voters against the Republicans, who I still assume to be occupied by well-established Protestants. (Socialists could also be getting votes from blue collar immigrants).

Speaking of Socialists, though they do have a base in the North in places like WI, they seem to struggle to break thru as a second major party due to the immense power of Progressives from farmers and city dwellers alike.

Given that there is a huge regional variance, I might have to make one big writeup on what is happening in each region specifically.
 
Given that there is a huge regional variance, I might have to make one big writeup on what is happening in each region specifically.

Yeah redoing the first few updates really made me have to flesh out the party factions a bit more, and there’s a lot of different factions in all five major parties, which each have bases in certain regions of the country, though there is still much infighting.
 
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