1920: Progressivism Triumphant, the Fifth Party System and Beyond A Wikibox TL
- Thread starter Ohheckitsian
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- 1920 herbert hoover usa
1923 in Armenia
Under the Armenian Mandate, elections for the Governor of the mandate took place every 4 years, starting in 1921, while the legislature of the mandate would be elected every two years under the existing party-list proportional system, starting in 1923. While general Christophor Araratov won the first governor's election in an upset over the ruling Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the ARF still dominated the legislature. This prevented much of the proposals from supporters of Araratov, who favored closer ties to the United States, and increased humanitarian aid to Armenia, believing that forging closer ties to Americans could provide protection for Armenia. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation only thought the mandate to be a necessary evil, that they should exit whenever Armenia was stabilized.
As of 1923, Armenia was anything but stable. A refugee crisis had been ongoing for several years as Armenian diaspora, displaced by the Armenian genocide and years of war, flooded back into the mandate, causing issues for the recovering nation. Another major issue was the Turkish nation, though battered and bruised following the Greco-Turkish war, reconquered the Italian holdings in Anatolia, an action that made many Armenians fear they would be next. Finally, the debate over Armenian relations with America continued, largely separated between supporters and opponents of Araratov.
Heading towards the election, the Armenian Populist Party positioned itself as the main pro-Araratov party, though Araratov himself would continue not to affiliate with any party. The Populists maintained their base of largely liberal, middle class citizens, in contrast to the lower-class Socialist base of the ARF. The Populists favored increased ties to the United States, and an aggressive infrastructure plan to try and ease the refugee crisis. Another new party, the Commonwealth Party, was backed largely by the Armenian upper class, and was criticized for receiving funding from American copper mining tycoons, interested in Armenian resources. As the name implies, this party supported a referendum on entering commonwealth status with the United States, and was a big tent of many ideologies.
Due to the Armenian electoral system, no party was able to secure a clear majority. The ARF lost many of their seats, while the Populist Party and Commonwealth Party gained heavily. In the single digits were a variety of minor parties, most catering to a specific nationality. No party secured a majority, and most minor parties wanted no part in a coalition. The Commonwealth Party held firm in its requirement for a commonwealth referendum as part of any coalition government, which the Populist Party did not wish to support. Thus, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation took power in a minority government, with support from the Independent Peasants Union.
As of 1923, Armenia was anything but stable. A refugee crisis had been ongoing for several years as Armenian diaspora, displaced by the Armenian genocide and years of war, flooded back into the mandate, causing issues for the recovering nation. Another major issue was the Turkish nation, though battered and bruised following the Greco-Turkish war, reconquered the Italian holdings in Anatolia, an action that made many Armenians fear they would be next. Finally, the debate over Armenian relations with America continued, largely separated between supporters and opponents of Araratov.
Heading towards the election, the Armenian Populist Party positioned itself as the main pro-Araratov party, though Araratov himself would continue not to affiliate with any party. The Populists maintained their base of largely liberal, middle class citizens, in contrast to the lower-class Socialist base of the ARF. The Populists favored increased ties to the United States, and an aggressive infrastructure plan to try and ease the refugee crisis. Another new party, the Commonwealth Party, was backed largely by the Armenian upper class, and was criticized for receiving funding from American copper mining tycoons, interested in Armenian resources. As the name implies, this party supported a referendum on entering commonwealth status with the United States, and was a big tent of many ideologies.
Due to the Armenian electoral system, no party was able to secure a clear majority. The ARF lost many of their seats, while the Populist Party and Commonwealth Party gained heavily. In the single digits were a variety of minor parties, most catering to a specific nationality. No party secured a majority, and most minor parties wanted no part in a coalition. The Commonwealth Party held firm in its requirement for a commonwealth referendum as part of any coalition government, which the Populist Party did not wish to support. Thus, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation took power in a minority government, with support from the Independent Peasants Union.
1. What are these people doing?:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Socialist or Progressive)
Donald J. Trump (Prohibition)
Joe Biden (Democratic)
Bernie Sanders (Progressive)
Jeb Bush (Republican)
2. Is there shift of the Solid South as OTL?
Not the original author, but I'll spare them some time: As of 1924 (when this TL is currently at) none of these people were born yet, nor would they be for at least another decade.
At least, that's assuming this TL hasn't gone ASB and someone's invented a time-machine in the intervening period.
On that note, @Ohheckitssian, as much as I realise most of these are fringe figures in the context of a US-centric time-line, what would be the fates of the following people?
- Alexandre Millerand / Gaston Doumerge
- Sun Yat-sen / Chiang Kai-shek
- Emperor Taisho / Tanaka Giichi
- Gustav Stressemann / Fredrich Ebert
- Jozef Pilsudzki / Tomas Masaryk
- Washington Luis / Pedro Ospina Vasquez
Also, great timeline, I look forward to where you take it.
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DO NOT post current politics (and every mothers son/daughter you listed is a current politician_ outside of Chat.
I think it's self-understood that these people, especially the youngest of them have been butterflied away. Also, talking about current figures, apart from breaking the forum rules, ruins the natural flow of the story, which hasn't even reached the second presidential election featured.
Hopefully, @Ohheckitsian, would take TTL the furthest away in the 20th century he can or even more, but let's concentrate on the 1924 issues, not spoil the entire century.
I’ll try to detail on these people sometime soon, and hopefully have an update out in the next couple of weeks. Sorry for the lack of any updates.
That's fine.
Take your time, as long as you're happy with the updates, that's all that matters in the end.
(also, for the record, I'd even be fine if you merely mentioned them in passing as opposed to a specific biography; I'm curious in how the world at large is developing, and I noticed that their respective nations were being overlooked is all.)
What happen to Libertarian Party and Green Party?
The Libertarian Party was founded in 1971 and the Green party wasn't founded until 2001. Neither have even come close to existing ITTL. We're still in the early 20th century and both parties will most likely be butterflied out of existence.
Anyways, getting back on track, I think it should be noted that much of the social climate will start to differ from here. While there most likely was a reactionary backlash, the effects are most likely dampened with a much more hands on Progressive government. This makes much of the hard-traditionalist push in the rural areas that characterized the 1920s smaller.
Related to this, the abscence of national Prohibition will also butterfly away or alter a good amount of speakeasy culture (so the popular perception of the "1920s" will be somewhat different here).
There likely will be similarities, such as the Great Migration (railway connections + AAs wanting to move from the Jim Crow South will probably lead them to other regions), emergence of popular culture/mass media (technologigal improvements and more audiences still exist), and rural cultural movements (rural America still feels some level of resentment), but changes in the POD will make the direction of social movements much more different in the future.
Personal Note: My personal social headcanon is that the German-American identity goes much more stronger in this TL, as they likely won't be on the recieving end of nearly as much Xenophobic sentiment as OTL.
Related to this, the abscence of national Prohibition will also butterfly away or alter a good amount of speakeasy culture (so the popular perception of the "1920s" will be somewhat different here).
There likely will be similarities, such as the Great Migration (railway connections + AAs wanting to move from the Jim Crow South will probably lead them to other regions), emergence of popular culture/mass media (technologigal improvements and more audiences still exist), and rural cultural movements (rural America still feels some level of resentment), but changes in the POD will make the direction of social movements much more different in the future.
Personal Note: My personal social headcanon is that the German-American identity goes much more stronger in this TL, as they likely won't be on the recieving end of nearly as much Xenophobic sentiment as OTL.
The Hoover Administration and the Ruhr Crisis: 1922-1923
After Armenian intervention in 1921, Hoover's administration was paralyzed in its ability to address foreign policy. With isolationism being supported among most parties, and the American populace at the time, Hoover struggled to pursue an internationalist foreign policy, despite American membership in the League of Nations. Aside from the Washington Naval Conference, there would be no major foreign policy action until late 1922.
In contrast to the general prosperity and economic growth in America at the time, Germany's economy was collapsing. The government, led by president Friedrich Ebert and a revolving door of Chancellors, struggled to pay back reparations owed to the Entente. By 1922, Germany regular struggled to pay back the raw materials owed to France, leading the French government 5o threaten to occupy the Ruhr region of Germany. As tensions mounted between the nations, Hoover, alongside British Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin, sought to relieve this by calling for negotiations between Belgium, France, America, and Britain. Italy was invited as well, but was unable to attend due to the outbreak of Civil War weeks before the negotiations were set to begin. America's delegates to the negotiations included Ambassador to the United Kingdom Charles Dawes, Secretary of State Frank Kellogg, and director of the American Relief Association in Europe Walter Lyman Brown. After months of negotiations, a settlement was reached, in which the French government promised not to occupy the Ruhr region, Germany's reparations would be eased from 132 billion gold marks to 112 billion, Germany would pay 800 million gold marks for five years after the implementation of the plan, then 2 billion per year after that, and America would loan 250 million per year to Germany. All the powers involved agreed to the plan, though the French government only reluctantly came around after pressure from the United States and United Kingdom.
The implementation of this plan in 1923 had an immediate impact on the Weimar Republic, with American loans enabling the fractured economy to rebuild. This was a victory for Chancellor Joseph Wirth, who intended on resigning his post prior to British and American calls for negotiations. It gave a sense of stability to the Weimar government, though this would not last forever. The negotiations had the opposite impact on the French government, as Prime Minister Raymond Poincare, who initially planned the occupation of the Ruhr, was completely humiliated, and the French economy beginning a decline.
In contrast to the general prosperity and economic growth in America at the time, Germany's economy was collapsing. The government, led by president Friedrich Ebert and a revolving door of Chancellors, struggled to pay back reparations owed to the Entente. By 1922, Germany regular struggled to pay back the raw materials owed to France, leading the French government 5o threaten to occupy the Ruhr region of Germany. As tensions mounted between the nations, Hoover, alongside British Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin, sought to relieve this by calling for negotiations between Belgium, France, America, and Britain. Italy was invited as well, but was unable to attend due to the outbreak of Civil War weeks before the negotiations were set to begin. America's delegates to the negotiations included Ambassador to the United Kingdom Charles Dawes, Secretary of State Frank Kellogg, and director of the American Relief Association in Europe Walter Lyman Brown. After months of negotiations, a settlement was reached, in which the French government promised not to occupy the Ruhr region, Germany's reparations would be eased from 132 billion gold marks to 112 billion, Germany would pay 800 million gold marks for five years after the implementation of the plan, then 2 billion per year after that, and America would loan 250 million per year to Germany. All the powers involved agreed to the plan, though the French government only reluctantly came around after pressure from the United States and United Kingdom.
The implementation of this plan in 1923 had an immediate impact on the Weimar Republic, with American loans enabling the fractured economy to rebuild. This was a victory for Chancellor Joseph Wirth, who intended on resigning his post prior to British and American calls for negotiations. It gave a sense of stability to the Weimar government, though this would not last forever. The negotiations had the opposite impact on the French government, as Prime Minister Raymond Poincare, who initially planned the occupation of the Ruhr, was completely humiliated, and the French economy beginning a decline.
An overview of the Socialist, Prohibition, and Progressive parties in 1924, alongside those running for their nominations
In the last four years, America has undergone a rapid political shift. What was originally a system dominated by two parties, the Democrats and Republicans, has quickly been shattered, mainly by the Progressives, but with the Socialist and Prohibition parties as well. The Presidency is controlled by Herbert Hoover, a Progressive trying to unite various wings of his party. The Senate is controlled by a coalition of Progressives, Socialists, and Prohibitionists, with a handful of Democrats and Republicans supporting as well. Though, Democrats and Republicans still control the House in a coalition, with Prohibitionists, Progressives, and Socialists trying to topple this headed in to the 1924 elections. While the Democrats and Republicans continue to hold conventions ran by party leaders to choose their presidential nominees, the other three parties have opted for expanding the existing primary system, after an agreement in 1923.
Socialist Party: The most decentralized of the five major parties, the Socialists are the most divided and have the most conflict between factions. Various factions have been trying for dominance following their surprise success in 1920, with the party absorbing many smaller leftist parties, and some radicals from the major parties jumping ship to take advantage of Socialist performances in their states. Major candidates for president in 1924 include:
Socialist Party: The most decentralized of the five major parties, the Socialists are the most divided and have the most conflict between factions. Various factions have been trying for dominance following their surprise success in 1920, with the party absorbing many smaller leftist parties, and some radicals from the major parties jumping ship to take advantage of Socialist performances in their states. Major candidates for president in 1924 include:
- Edwin J. Brown, Governor of Washington 1921-Present, Age 60: After a narrow win in the governor's race in 1920, Edwin "Doc" Brown has served an uncontroversial three years. Brown has tried to work alongside Progressives in the state legislature when possible, pushing for expanded labor organizing and expanding infrastructure within the state. His lax policies towards Prohibition have brought him the ire of Seattle's Prohibition mayor Bertha Knight Landes, who has accused him of corruption. Brown hopes to prove himself as an uncontroversial pick to Socialist Party members, and win over urban members of the party.
- Theodore Debs, Representative of Indiana's 5th District 1923-Present, Age 60: Running in the 1922 midterm and winning in an upset over Incumbent Everett Sanders, Theodore is the brother of Socialist Party standard-bearer Eugene Debs, and is hoping to take up the mantle of the five-time nominee. Running on a platform nearly identical to that of 1920 (sans the planks already passed within the first years of the Hoover administration, such as a national minimum wage), Debs has the backing of several major labor unions, along with several major members of the party, including Caucus Chair Victor Berger. Debs is the clear front runner for the nomination, with the anti-Debs vote being split several ways.
- William Z. Foster, Union Organizer, Age 43: Foster is the most radical of the candidates seeking the nomination, involved in several strikes in his career since joining the Socialist Party. Though flirting with the Communist Party at various points within the 1920s, Foster has remained a staunch syndicalist and proponent of direct action. His union connections have given him some influence within the Socialist Party, though his criticism of electoralism and calls to stop cooperation with the Progressive Party have made him toxic to much of party leadership. Nonetheless, Foster has given an alternative to many radicals within the party.
- George W.P. Hunt, Arizona Governor 1912-1917, 1917-1919, Arizona Senator 1923-Present, Age 65: A massive force in the Arizona Democratic Party, Hunt jumped ship to the Socialists after their strong performance in the 1920 Presidential Election. Hunt's opposition to big business and support of labor unions has been central to his career. His jump to the Socialist party brought many of his supporters with him, cementing Socialist power in Arizona after Eugene Debs' win there in 1920. Hunt is one of the most moderate candidates out of those running, and he could win over many populists and progressives with his ideology.
- E.R. Meitzen, Representative of Texas' 9th District 1921-Present: Coming from the Meitzen family, a powerful force within Texas leftism, Meitzen has found himself allied with Representative Huey Long upon his election to the house. Long has provided much support to Meitzen in his re-election to the house, with sound trucks and campaign flyers covering the district. Meitzen is relatively unknown to many Socialist members outside the south, and he is well aware of the fact. Meitzen's candidacy is mainly a vessel for Long-backed candidates around Louisiana, stumping for candidates in east Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and even some in Oklahoma, challenging the Socialist faction there. Despite this, Meitzen is still in a strong position to win some Southern States in the primary, and could play an important role for Long and his allies at the convention.
- William E. Rodriguez, Mayor of Chicago 1923-Present, Age 45: The first Hispanic city council member from Chicago, Rodriguez came out of his 1918 retirement to run for mayor of the city in 1923. Rodriguez ran a very-local campaign, looking to fix the problems of the city's public transit. He overcame Democratic and Republican political machines, as well as Progressive and Prohibitionist candidates, to win with the backing of Senator Eugene Debs and the cities labor unions, and immediately got to work implementing his agenda. Rodriguez has stated that he has no intention of accepting the nomination if he wins, but instead is running to bring a focus on Civil Rights to the party, believing that the Progressives have moved far more on the issue than Socialists.
- Charles Solomon, Representative from New York's 8th District 1921-Present, Age 35: Rounding out the list of candidates is Charley Solomon, who was previously expelled from the New York state legislature due to his status as a Socialist. After this expulsion, Solomon ran for Congress, winning election and re-election by respectable margins. Solomon hopes to leverage his recognition within New York City and the party, alongside his youth to keep Social Democracy within the mainstream.
- Keith Neville, Senator from Nebraska 1923-Present, Age 40: The son of a populist congressman, Keith Neville was elected governor of Nebraska at just 32 years old in 1916. He was defeated for re-election two years later, and in another two years was attending the Democratic Convention, where he bolted to Prohibition alongside Jennings Bryan. Neville planned on trying to recapture the governors office, but these plans fell through when Charles Bryan announced his intention to run. In two years, Neville ran for an open senate seat after the retirement of Democratic Senator Gilbert Hitchcock, winning easily. Now, Neville seeks to jump to the presidency, with the backing of most Prohibition Party officials, including Charles Bryan. Neville is running on a very mainstream platform for the party, consisting of strong enforcement of federal prohibition, increased farm aid, an Equal Rights amendment, and isolationism.
- Sidney Johnston Catts, Representative from Florida's 3rd District 1921-Present, Age 61: Previously the only Prohibition governor in the whole country, Catts was term-limited in 1920 and opted to run for Congress, winning over Representative John Harris Smithwick. Catts is heavily racist, anti-Catholic, and all around bigoted, and a proponent of a Southern Democratic breakaway party. The Prohibition party is merely Catts vehicle to split the Democratic party, which he is also expressed his intention to run for the nomination of.
- James B.A. Robertson, Governor of Oklahoma 1919-1923, Age 53: Robertson was one of the first defectors to the Prohibition Party, in the middle of his first and only term as governor. His advocacy for women's rights and prohibition is a standard position among the party. His term as governor was marked by racial tensions, only narrowly avoiding many disasters, including an incident in Tulsa that nearly escalated into race riots until Robertson preemptively called in the national guard. He lost reelection to Socialist Oscar Ameringer in 1922, criticized on race relations, his support of prohibition, and scandals. After this, Robertson moved to a presidential run, though his gubernatorial term cast a shadow over this.
- Edith Wilson, Governor of Virginia 1922-Present, Age 52: The widow of Woodrow Wilson, Edith moved to Virginia following her husband's untimely death. One switch to the Prohibition Party later, Wilson found herself in the governor's mansion, though with a Democrat-filled state legislature. Aggressive Prohibition enforcement and road construction have been the focus of her term. Now running for president, Wilson looks for the return of Wilsonian democracy, though she has been criticized by some who claim her negligence after Wilson's stroke led directly to his death.
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States 1921-Present, Age 50: President of the United States following the 1920 Election, Hoover's term has been marked by broad change, expanding upon the legacies of Roosevelt and Wilson. Hoover is broadly approved by most in the Progressive Party, as well as America as a whole. The cooperation with Prohibition and Socialist parties, alongside unity among Progressives allowed Hoover to accomplish much within his first years. America's general prosperity following the post-war recovery has given Hoover significant political capital, and he now seeks to expand upon the work already accomplished in his first term. Progressive plans call for Constitutional amendments outlawing child labor, giving equal rights to women, and recall elections of federal officials. Hoover seeks to win re-election, winning the House, and add onto the accomplishments of his first term. Hoover is backed by most of the Progressive Party, with his strongest support coming from moderate and mainstream factions.
- William Borah, Vice President of the United States 1921-Present, Age 59: After being added to the ticket in 1920 to bring unity among the various Progressive factions, William Borah has launched a campaign to take down the incumbent Hoover. Though agreeing with Hoover in most regards, Borah, and the bloc of Progressives supporting him, have large disagreements with the President. Though some Borah backers cite Hoover's focus on social issues and his refusal to enact a stricter immigration policy as there reason for opposing him, Borah himself opposes Hoover for foreign policy disagreements. Borah, a staunch isolationist, has had private disagreements with Hoover's moves to get America more involved in the world's politics. Hoover and Borah's relationship had been very icy behind the scenes due to these disagreements, with Borah given little information compared to other cabinet members Hoover was closer to. Some allied to Borah have also claimed Hoover planned to dump him from the ticket in 1924 even before his run, though Hoover has not commented on this. Borah now seeks to dump Hoover from his own ticket, with the backing of other isolationists such as Hiram Johnson, and some of the most radical Progressives, such as the Minnesota delegation.
I’ve tried to find his birth date but haven’t come up with anything yet
Not sure, it hasn't been active for months. The author might be very busy with college stuff.