1920 election if Hughes won in 1916

1) Who would Democrats run?

If he's still physically fit, probably ex-President Wilson - who after all probably still won the popular vote. If not it could b any of a host of possibles. The OTL choice, James M Cox, is as likely as anyone.

2) How certain is it that Dems would win?

Not certain , but highly probable.

1916 was so close that neither side can afford to lose any support. And, as OTL, people will be fed up with wartime regimentation and be longing for a return to normal, and the peace treaty, whatever its precise terms, is sure to leave lots of people disappointed. OTL this hit the Democrats hard, TTL it will hit the Republicans. Maybe not as hard as the Democrats were, since Hughes (who lived until 1948) probably won't collapse the way Wilson did, but I don't see him being re-elected. Pity, I like him.
 
I've always been intrigued but the Hughes in 1916 scenario as it certainly leads to 1920 Democratic win.

It is quite possible the defeat of Wilson in 1916 gives the conservative branch of Democratic party the edge in 1920

This likely means a Democratic 1920s and it is unlikely they would do much more than GOP did in terms of economic reforms

We could see President Hoover sweep into power in 1932 on a progressive platform
 
It is quite possible the defeat of Wilson in 1916 gives the conservative branch of Democratic party the edge in 1920

I would think that the opposite might be the case--resentment over "profiteers" and the state of the economy under the pro-business Republicans and the belief that the US should never have gotten into the war (and that maybe Wilson, despite his 1916 peace campaign, shares some of the blame for not being as dovish in 1915-16 as Bryan) could lead the Democrats to nominate someone to the left of the OTL candidate Cox. (Bryan might even try for a fourth nomination--though I don't think the party is going to go *that* far...) Now I can see conservative Democrats arguing the opposite: "we lost in 1916 because we were too radical and lost the Northeast without sufficient compensation in the West--why, we didn't even [in this ATL] carry California"... But on the whole I think the heart of the party will be on the left. The only times in OTL the party nominated really conservative presidential candidates was when it didn't have much of a chance to win (1904 and 1924).
 
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