1918: Finland has all of Karelia

What if at the end of WWI independent Finland had all of Karelia (Karel'skaya A.S.S.R.) up to the White Sea, including the Murmansk peninsula?
 
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I take it you mean WW1?

The Russian Far North was held by Entente-sponsored Whites until, IIRC, 1920, and Finland doesn't want to pick a fight with the Entente; and by 1920, the Red Army can bat aside any Finnish attempt on this vital strategic target.

A differant border in Karelia is possible, but Russia won't give up its far-north ports and Finland doesn't particularly want them.
 
It might work if the western powers were willing to support the Finns instead of the whites. Most of the allies forces were kept around Archangel
 

yourworstnightmare

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Donor
Finland did never claim Murmansk or ever really cared for reaching the White Sea. However reaching Onega would probably be possible if Finland really pushed for a larger Karelia.
 

Old Airman

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Taking into account that Finnish government of the day ruled over bitterly divided country fresh from civil war (which it won due to foreign military intervention or, rather, had been installed by occupant power to administer occupied territory) I'm not sure Finns were in position to disturb Red Russia. It didn't intervene in OTL Finnish civil war. Result might have been different in 1920.
 
It seems that around 1900 Ingria was nearly solidly Finnish (or similar)-speaking except for the built-up area of St.Petersburg.

How similar are Finnish and Estonian? Can they understand each other's languages?
 
It seems that around 1900 Ingria was nearly solidly Finnish (or similar)-speaking except for the built-up area of St.Petersburg.

How similar are Finnish and Estonian? Can they understand each other's languages?

I belive (as a Swede) that Finnish and Estonian are fairly close - but there are big differences in that "close". Also, by 1918 languages such as English or Finnis had far more regional differences. BBC English hadn't started to spread, so one finn may understand one estonian dialect - but not a different dialect.
 
It seems that around 1900 Ingria was nearly solidly Finnish (or similar)-speaking except for the built-up area of St.Petersburg.

Not really. Working from the 1897 census, in the districts making up Ingria, there were 183,859 Russians (including Belorussians and Ukrainians, but their numbers were trivial and they'd prefer Slavic rule in any hypothetical scenario anyway) against 138,990 Finnic peoples (including Finns, Estonians, Ingrians, "Chuds", whatever they are, and a few Komi and Mordvar who lost their trains somewhere; but the Finns are the main component): a substantial minority, but not "solid". Generally, the proprotion was about halfers except on the outskirts of main cities, which tilts it in the Slav direction.

But that excludes all the urban centres: not only Petersburg and the associated towns that were still counted seperately (Peterhof, Oranienbaum, Kronstadt, Tsarkoye Selo,and Pavlovsk) but also Gatchina, Narva, Shlisselburg, and Yamburg (now Kingisepp). Each one was overwhelmingly Russian, with the exception of Narva (Russian-Estonian halfers).

And St.Peterburg dwarfs the lot, in any case.

How similar are Finnish and Estonian? Can they understand each other's languages?

You'd do better to ask a Finn and an Estonian; but if you're thinking what I'm thinking that you're thinking :)p) I don't see the dynamic duo forming a pan-Finnic state during the RCW. They were sympathetic, but their societies were very differant so they had differant desires for what independence should bring them and didn't want to have to obey the ruliers of the other. And both were too sensible to go mucking around near Petersburg in search of a land connection.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
It seems that around 1900 Ingria was nearly solidly Finnish (or similar)-speaking except for the built-up area of St.Petersburg.

How similar are Finnish and Estonian? Can they understand each other's languages?

Finnish and Estonian are as related as English and Swedish, if you haven't been taught the language you don't understand it, but it isn't hard for a Finn to learn Estonian.

Ingria; Some of the "Finnish" population there were actually Finns, while others were Ingrians, a related people. However Finland had no claims on Ingria.
 
No railroads

Screw the populations and whose where. The rail lines in Karelia run between Murmansk, Archangel, Moscow, and Leningrad. Unless the Finns are occupying all of Karelia, much of the Kola Peninsula, all the territory around Lake Lagoda, AND all of Leningrad:eek: you can't supply/control Karelia from Finland, period.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Donor
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Ingria and this map for part of north Ingria that OTL tried to secede from Russia and join Finland after WWI.
Yes, but they only got passive support from Helsinki. The Finnish government was more eager to get parts of East Karelia. Finland was especially eager to get the muncipalities of Repola and Porajärvi, buut ultimately traded their claims for Petsamo and access to the Arctic Ocean. I think a more active Finland combined with a more chaotic Russia could have given Finland access to Onega, but that would be max.
 
Yeah, the Finns had romantic-nationalist ideas but they weren't stupid. They knew that without being backed by the Entente to the hilt, nothing that could be described as a "Finnish invasion of Russia" was going to end well, so they restricted themselves to sending volunteer bands into Karelia; but outside Repola and Porajarvi, the Karelians themselves were pretty apathetic and the expeditions quickly fell apart. The Finns were even more cautious about Ingria, where the Soviets, as seen in 1939, thought the border was rather unfortunately close to Leningrad already.
 
I belive (as a Swede) that Finnish and Estonian are fairly close - but there are big differences in that "close". Also, by 1918 languages such as English or Finnis had far more regional differences. BBC English hadn't started to spread, so one finn may understand one estonian dialect - but not a different dialect.

From my experience with Finns they seem to enjoy comparing words with Estonians but they're really not all that close, its not like Swedish and Norwegian. More like...I dunno...English and German or somesuch.
 
Yeah, the Finns had romantic-nationalist ideas but they weren't stupid. They knew that without being backed by the Entente to the hilt, nothing that could be described as a "Finnish invasion of Russia" was going to end well, so they restricted themselves to sending volunteer bands into Karelia; but outside Repola and Porajarvi, the Karelians themselves were pretty apathetic and the expeditions quickly fell apart.

You pretty much nailed it. To get seriously more land than in the OTL Tartu Treaty, Finland would need a great power sponsor and/or the Russian government doing the negotiating should be in very big trouble.

The Finns were even more cautious about Ingria, where the Soviets, as seen in 1939, thought the border was rather unfortunately close to Leningrad already.

Indeed. There *were* some leading Finns who thought that Finland should give up even more land on the isthmus in exchange for Petsamo, Repola, Porajärvi and possible extra areas north of the Ladoga, both to avoid a future sticking point with Russia and to unite as much Finnic areas as possible.

Somewhere I've seen this called "an industrialist's border": there is plenty of raw material for paper mills (as well as hydroelectric possibilities) in those areas, and the idea was sponsored, among others, by the wood industry magnate, general and later minister Rudolf Walden (a member of the Tartu delegation).

Given that these are pretty nearly the borders Stalin would have given Finland in 1939, this alt-Tartu could have created some pretty interesting butterflies in regards to Finno-Soviet relations in the interwar period.

Tyr said:
From my experience with Finns they seem to enjoy comparing words with Estonians but they're really not all that close, its not like Swedish and Norwegian. More like...I dunno...English and German or somesuch.

Not like Swedish and Norwegian, definitely. But closer than English and German. There are a lot of common words, but they very often mean different things. This is partly due to the fact that both languages borrow heavily from Germanic neighbours, but Finnish from Swedish and Estonian from German. Estonian is a bit more "urban" and many words are shortened: I believe that to our friends south of the gulf Finnish sounds somewhat archaic, long-winded and wordy. Estonian, on the other hand, has something of a sing-song quality to it. But then, of course, Finnish is so monotonous it is embarrassing...

There is, to a Finn, a humorous side in listening to Estonian. After the 80s, when we first started receiving TV programmes from Soviet Estonia, mock-Estonian has become something of a Finnish TV comedy staple. I believe it works the other way too...
 
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For Finland to make more territorial gains then one of three things would need to take place: 1) World War I ends as it did but the western allies decide early on to back the Finns in the region as a counter weight to the Red Army, 2) World War I ends in a stalemate and the Germans are thus still a player and back their allies the Finns or 3) The Russian Civil War Continues leaving the Reds much weaker and allowing the Finns to move into the region. Sweden also provides much more backing.
 
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