(Trying another one of these peace ideas. Thanks for indulging me). In a situation where Germany figures out that unrestricted submarine warfare will not work and does not try it. The war plods along without USA entry. This is really a hopeless and grim situation for all involved.
a) Germany is motivated to make peace because it doesn't have a war winning idea, the blockade is really starting to hurt, the Murmansk railway is opening, so there is the threat the Russia could receive western supplies and equipment of all kinds.
b) Russia is motivated (Kerensky Russia by this time), because it is broke, its people want peace, and here there is no USA loans coming.
c) Britain and France are facing real financial difficulties without USA loans, Frances army had its mutiny, while handled, there is real doubts about ever resuming the offensive under the circumstances.
d) Austria-Hungary wants peace, just hasn't been able to figure out how to do it.
By July 1917, all the factions are willing to talk, the USA, the Dutch and the Vatican are willing to help mediate. Germany is in the power position. Its sits on occupied territory everywhere. Russia is obviously shaky, But the Allies can still resist, if only on the defense.
The hardest faction to convince is in Germany, its leadership took Germany to war, and millions are dead and gigantic treasure spent, and would have to settle for a compromise peace, it might mean revolution and the end of the monarchy. The Kaiser, with some prodding from the Crown Prince decide to be on the right side of history and strongly advocate for peace, The Kaiser offering to step down (in favor of his son) if it would help.
The USA floats the idea of Belgian Congo being used to compensate Germany in a compromise peace (happened in OTL). A conference in the Hague of all the various powers meets, war activity at the fronts minimizes.
Germany takes this USA idea and doubles down. Agrees to peace on France and Russia's pre - war boundaries, in exchange for a German favorable division of Portuguese and Belgian colonies.
(all going to Germany, except for southern Mozambique to Britain.
Luxembourg to be annexed by Germany.
Serbia, Montenegro and Albania to be divided between Italy, Bulgaria and Austria.
Romanian Dobruja is split, Southern half to Bulgaria, Northern Half is under Turkish occupation for 20 years.
Everywhere else is prewar boundaries.
The Allies keep seized German and Austrian merchants in compensation for losses and damages.
All powers agrees to a 10 year naval holiday on naval construction and limits to 50% of Britain thereafter.
Germany agrees to setup a fund for compensation of French and Belgian private property destroyed.
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Would the Allies agree to such a peace under such circumstances? I think yes. Britain gets naval security, picks up a colonial acquisition, no losses, and Britain is the lead player for the Allies.
Russia has no choice
France has no choice without Britain and Russia and at least doesn't lose anything and gets her occupied territory back.
Belgium is at least liberated.
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Opinions? Is this plausible?
a) Germany is motivated to make peace because it doesn't have a war winning idea, the blockade is really starting to hurt, the Murmansk railway is opening, so there is the threat the Russia could receive western supplies and equipment of all kinds.
b) Russia is motivated (Kerensky Russia by this time), because it is broke, its people want peace, and here there is no USA loans coming.
c) Britain and France are facing real financial difficulties without USA loans, Frances army had its mutiny, while handled, there is real doubts about ever resuming the offensive under the circumstances.
d) Austria-Hungary wants peace, just hasn't been able to figure out how to do it.
By July 1917, all the factions are willing to talk, the USA, the Dutch and the Vatican are willing to help mediate. Germany is in the power position. Its sits on occupied territory everywhere. Russia is obviously shaky, But the Allies can still resist, if only on the defense.
The hardest faction to convince is in Germany, its leadership took Germany to war, and millions are dead and gigantic treasure spent, and would have to settle for a compromise peace, it might mean revolution and the end of the monarchy. The Kaiser, with some prodding from the Crown Prince decide to be on the right side of history and strongly advocate for peace, The Kaiser offering to step down (in favor of his son) if it would help.
The USA floats the idea of Belgian Congo being used to compensate Germany in a compromise peace (happened in OTL). A conference in the Hague of all the various powers meets, war activity at the fronts minimizes.
Germany takes this USA idea and doubles down. Agrees to peace on France and Russia's pre - war boundaries, in exchange for a German favorable division of Portuguese and Belgian colonies.
(all going to Germany, except for southern Mozambique to Britain.
Luxembourg to be annexed by Germany.
Serbia, Montenegro and Albania to be divided between Italy, Bulgaria and Austria.
Romanian Dobruja is split, Southern half to Bulgaria, Northern Half is under Turkish occupation for 20 years.
Everywhere else is prewar boundaries.
The Allies keep seized German and Austrian merchants in compensation for losses and damages.
All powers agrees to a 10 year naval holiday on naval construction and limits to 50% of Britain thereafter.
Germany agrees to setup a fund for compensation of French and Belgian private property destroyed.
----------------------------------------
Would the Allies agree to such a peace under such circumstances? I think yes. Britain gets naval security, picks up a colonial acquisition, no losses, and Britain is the lead player for the Allies.
Russia has no choice
France has no choice without Britain and Russia and at least doesn't lose anything and gets her occupied territory back.
Belgium is at least liberated.
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Opinions? Is this plausible?