1916 - No Ludendorff.

It's a bit crude but WI, sometime in the Spring or early Summer of 1916, General Erich Ludendorff falls downstairs and breaks his [expletive deleted] neck?

Presumably Hindenburg carries on. He's too much of a national icon to be dropped. But any thoughts on his new sidekick/organ grinder? Could Hoffmann get it? Seeckt? Groener even? Or are there other possibles I haven't thought of?

In this situation, does Hindenburg still take over later in the year, or does Falkenhayn get a reprieve? And if it is still Hindenburg, what might change in 1917/18?
 
Max Hoffmann would be the most logicl choice. He's an 'Easterner' and Hindenburg is used to him. But Hoffmann despises Hindenburg - and the latter most probably knows that.
Seeckt would be an excellent choice, but he's Falkenhayn's man - and thus unacceptable to the 'Easterners'.
Groener is all too junior - and so far has been only the railway specialist.

If Romania enters the war as IOTL, Falkenhayn will fall - and be replaced by Hindenburg (because Bethmann Hollweg believes that only with H. in command the German people will accept adverse peace terms). In this case, he would most probably be given a Western Front alter ego - either von Kuhl (who might decline) or von Loßberg.
 

abc123

Banned
Let's try it like this: what if somehow in 1916 both Hindenburg and Ludendorf are driving in same car and brakes go off and they both die in a car crash- what then?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Would August von Mackensen work?

He is Falkenhayn's protegee, so anything bad enough to get Falkenhayn fired probably assure Mackensen does not get the GHQ job. Now both are too good a commanders not to get army commands, as OTL shows, GHQ is just one level too high for Mackensen.

If you fire Falkenhayn, and kill of H&L, then you just have to go through the army commanders and find another one. It is what the Kaiser would have done. I don't think it would be the Crown Prince, but look for one of the army commanders in the east under H&L.
 
He is Falkenhayn's protegee, so anything bad enough to get Falkenhayn fired probably assure Mackensen does not get the GHQ job. Now both are too good a commanders not to get army commands, as OTL shows, GHQ is just one level too high for Mackensen.

If you fire Falkenhayn, and kill of H&L, then you just have to go through the army commanders and find another one. It is what the Kaiser would have done. I don't think it would be the Crown Prince, but look for one of the army commanders in the east under H&L.


And if it's not going to be Crown Prince Willy, presumably it can't be Rupprecht either. Sounds like we could be down to somebody quite obscure.

Of course if Hindenburg is also gone, that removes the obstacle to Hoffmann as Ludendorff's replacement.
 
If Ludendorff breaks his neck then I would expect as suggested by Rast for Max Hoffmann to replace him as Hindenburg's chief of staff.

Mackensen, the Crown Prince and others like that mentioned wouldn't be picked because they are commanders not staff officers.

The way the German system works the Chief of Staffs are very important especially when you have some like Crown Prince Wilhelm as a Army / Army Group commander. The chief of staff makes sure the commander doesn't do anything stupid and they issue the actual orders, in the name of their commander of course.

No need to sack Hindenburg to change his behavior if Ludendorff is gone.

Michael
 
If Ludendorff breaks his neck then I would expect as suggested by Rast for Max Hoffmann to replace him as Hindenburg's chief of staff.

Mackensen, the Crown Prince and others like that mentioned wouldn't be picked because they are commanders not staff officers.

The way the German system works the Chief of Staffs are very important especially when you have some like Crown Prince Wilhelm as a Army / Army Group commander. The chief of staff makes sure the commander doesn't do anything stupid and they issue the actual orders, in the name of their commander of course.

No need to sack Hindenburg to change his behavior if Ludendorff is gone.

Michael


Rather what I thought which was why I killed only Ludendorff.
 
As long as his aura as national hero wasn't damaged, Hindenburg would co-operate with almost every one; he wasn't picky personally.
 
One thing I wondered about (apart from the 800lb gorilla of USW) was the retirement to the Hindenburg Line in early 1917. Would Hoffmann (or Lossberg) have gone ahead with this? And what knock-on effects might it have if they didn't? Could the Germans have held out through 1917 on the old line?
 
The Alberich Retreat and USW were linked as elements of the same strategy:
Let the Navy do the work and save as many soldiers as possible while creating a sizeable reserve for counter attacks.

Holding the old line would have been possible, as in 1917 neither the French nor the British were capable of exploiting initial success. But it would have cost the Germans dearly in terms of manpower and material lost.
Even in OTL morale was bad at the end of 1917, and only the hope to achieve an end of the war with the 1918 spring offensive kept people going on.
Loßberg was considerd 'the' specialist for defensive operations. He would have executed Alberich for sure.
Hoffmann was the best operational head available in the General Staff, he may have tried some smaller offensives with limited objectives to interrupt Entente force build-up. (The offensive faction always claimed that the defense did cost as dearly as attack - but was worse for morale.)
 
Ludendorff wasn't exactly senior when he got the job, so I'm not sure being relatively junior is enough of a reason to rule Groener out?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Ludendorff wasn't exactly senior when he got the job, so I'm not sure being relatively junior is enough of a reason to rule Groener out?

In August 1914, Ludendorff was a Generalmajor (brigadier general) in his own right, Groener was a Lieutenant-Colonel.
But yes, seniority alone won't decide, as Hoffmann also was a Lieutenant-Colonel.

Groener - although a brilliant railway specialist - had no history of operational activity in a higher staff; the railway folks were rather viewed as part of the logistical background to operations.
 
I am thinking that if both Hindenburg and Ludendorf are dead: Mackensen / Seeckt almost needs to be the new leadership, just because Germany needs a big name for the morale effect and those are the best names Germany has.

Any German leadership that:

1) avoids the unrestricted submarine campaign
2) doesn't messup the economy like the OTL Hindenburg plan

(and assuming the Russians leave the war in December 1917 as in OTL)

Germany is in pretty good shape to secure a compromise peace with the Allies.

I don't think any other German leaders other than Hindenburg/Ludendorf would have the clout to railroad unrestricted submarine warfare through, even if they thought personally it was a good idea.
 

Deleted member 1487

As long as his aura as national hero wasn't damaged, Hindenburg would co-operate with almost every one; he wasn't picky personally.

Which, IMHO makes Hoffmann, the architect of most of the H-L success on the Eastern Front, about as certain as Ludendorff's replacement as anything. Its not for nothing that he took over OberOst in 1916 and handled Brest-Litovsk.


In August 1914, Ludendorff was a Generalmajor (brigadier general) in his own right, Groener was a Lieutenant-Colonel.
But yes, seniority alone won't decide, as Hoffmann also was a Lieutenant-Colonel.

Groener - although a brilliant railway specialist - had no history of operational activity in a higher staff; the railway folks were rather viewed as part of the logistical background to operations.
Groener also had no economic experience and he got the War Ministry to salvage the Hindenburg Programme. As far as the General Staff went, he was part of the Moltke clique that essentially ran the war in 1914 until Falkenhayn showed up and Hentsch discredited himself at the Marne. By 1916 he had been involved in the General Staff pretty heavily and was a strong critic of Falkenhayn, though he lacked name recognition. Nevertheless, he was pretty skilled and might well replace Ludendorff by default if Hindenburg decides not to replace Ludendorff before he shows up to OHL and takes stock of the personalities there. Ludendorff apparently thought highly of him.
 
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Deleted member 1487

One thing I wondered about (apart from the 800lb gorilla of USW) was the retirement to the Hindenburg Line in early 1917. Would Hoffmann (or Lossberg) have gone ahead with this? And what knock-on effects might it have if they didn't? Could the Germans have held out through 1917 on the old line?

Hoffmann probably would, not sure about Lossberg, but I'd venture a guess and say yes. I think by August 1916 the only person at OHL that wanted to hold everything was Falkenhayn, which he did only for political reasons by that time (i.e. to prevent H-L from using any retreat to criticize him). Ludendorff when he showed up to to OHL was pretty much a coordinator of opinions, rather than the brain behind policy.
Check out 'If Germany Attacks' for a pretty good description of how German defensive policy/doctrine evolved, which is more detailed than 'Dynamics of Doctrine' the US army monograph on the subject.

As to holding on if not...well I think they could have and it would have been harder for the Allies by 1918, but it would have reduced German reserves badly, so it may have been hard to hold the extra mileage...but if without Ludendorff there is no USW (which I think was not exactly a given), then those extra men can come from the East.
 
Groener also had no economic experience and he got the War Ministry to salvage the Hindenburg Programme.

He didn't get the war ministry (Kriegsministerium) but the war office (Kriegsamt), which again is more in the realm of logistics. - I do not deny that Groener was capable, he simply didn't have the 'name of fame'.
Even in 1918, he only was third choice (von Seeckt was too far away and would have taken too long to arrive; von Kuhl declined; thus they called Groener).
As for him being part of informal OHL leadership that only goes as far as the influence of the railway department went, i.e. checking the feasability of operational ideas under the aspect of rail transport. This, however, included that the railway department always was very well informed about operational plannning, thus possibly giving the false imprssion that Groener had any say in it.
 
Then the Kaiser sticks with Falkhenhayn to the bitter end as he REALLY hated the guys in OberOst. I mean really. It took a lot of doing for them and von Bethmann-Hollweg to overcome the Kaiser's objections, that and the Brusilov Offensive. No Ludendorff = very different Eastern War, one where Germany may actually do better if it leads to the rise of someone like Max Hoffman or von Mackensen who were actually suited to army command, which Ludendorff.....was not.
 
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