All,
This is based on Clive Ponting’s book ‘Thirteen days’. Re-reading it as it is a mighty good book and rather detailed.
It has a few conclusions which we can agree or disagree with. However, they are fairly well documented.
In essence: The unfinished business of the Balkan wars was the trigger. Other elements (naval race, train time tables, etc) made it all possible, but these were not the triggers.
Diplomacy had won the day before and could again.
AH was determined to have a show-down with Serbia even with the knowledge that it was nearly a given it would lead to war with Russia and that Germany would be pulled in then. And also that it would lead to a major European war.
The annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 surely put petrol on the fire – Serbian nationalism and aggressive behaviour.
One of the goals of AH was also to get Bulgaria into the triple-alliance. That might have restored the old power balance in the Balkans.
So, where AH saw a war with Russia as a natural extension on any clamp-down on Serbia and the trigger for a European war, it still looks as though Germany was a bit more ambivalent on that account.
According to Ponting, Germany did not believe that Russia would be interested in a war, even if AH went to war with Serbia. However, they also concluded that if Russia did so, this was just as good a time as any to have the show-down with Russia anyway.
In essence: AH and Germany left it up to Russia whether there would be a war over Serbia.
Germany also encouraged AH to get on with it while the sentiment in Europe (among the ruling elite) was in their favour. Nobody was really OK with killing of royals – at least among the royals.
It raises a few questions:
- What did the Serbian government (or the radical factions) in Serbia hope to get out of killing Ferdinand?
- Did Russia see this as an opportunity to have a show-down with Germany AND AH?
It leads into a few WI’s:
The classical: AH invades Serbia within a few days with what resources they had:
This could result in:
- AH gets a bloody nose because they under-estimated the Serbian army response and started with in-sufficient resources (the harvest leave).
- AH minorities start questioning the viability of AH
- AH starts to crumble into constituent parts
- Russia is not getting involved
This opens a few interesting spin-offs:
How will Europe look if AH disintegrates in 1914-1916?
The other classical: Diplomacy wins the date
- Hungary (Tisza) carries the day and an ultimatum is presented to Serbia which they can comply with
- Serbia is humiliated
- Russia stays out of it
Is it even possible?
The loose cannon: No blank cheque from Germany
- AH invades as per OTL
- Russia declares war
- Germany stays out of it, deciding that the timing is not now
- Germany tries out an agreement with Britain
- France gets isolated (again)
AH in a war in 1914 with Russia?
- Stalemate?
- Russia takes over Balkan
- Russia gets swamped in Balkan politics and gets to spend resources putting out fires all over
- Germany looking on with glee as Russia is facing an ‘Afghanistan’ or ‘Vietnam’ in 1914.
Which one could be the result if it just goes a little bit different?
Ivan
This is based on Clive Ponting’s book ‘Thirteen days’. Re-reading it as it is a mighty good book and rather detailed.
It has a few conclusions which we can agree or disagree with. However, they are fairly well documented.
In essence: The unfinished business of the Balkan wars was the trigger. Other elements (naval race, train time tables, etc) made it all possible, but these were not the triggers.
Diplomacy had won the day before and could again.
AH was determined to have a show-down with Serbia even with the knowledge that it was nearly a given it would lead to war with Russia and that Germany would be pulled in then. And also that it would lead to a major European war.
The annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 surely put petrol on the fire – Serbian nationalism and aggressive behaviour.
One of the goals of AH was also to get Bulgaria into the triple-alliance. That might have restored the old power balance in the Balkans.
So, where AH saw a war with Russia as a natural extension on any clamp-down on Serbia and the trigger for a European war, it still looks as though Germany was a bit more ambivalent on that account.
According to Ponting, Germany did not believe that Russia would be interested in a war, even if AH went to war with Serbia. However, they also concluded that if Russia did so, this was just as good a time as any to have the show-down with Russia anyway.
In essence: AH and Germany left it up to Russia whether there would be a war over Serbia.
Germany also encouraged AH to get on with it while the sentiment in Europe (among the ruling elite) was in their favour. Nobody was really OK with killing of royals – at least among the royals.
It raises a few questions:
- What did the Serbian government (or the radical factions) in Serbia hope to get out of killing Ferdinand?
- Did Russia see this as an opportunity to have a show-down with Germany AND AH?
It leads into a few WI’s:
The classical: AH invades Serbia within a few days with what resources they had:
This could result in:
- AH gets a bloody nose because they under-estimated the Serbian army response and started with in-sufficient resources (the harvest leave).
- AH minorities start questioning the viability of AH
- AH starts to crumble into constituent parts
- Russia is not getting involved
This opens a few interesting spin-offs:
How will Europe look if AH disintegrates in 1914-1916?
The other classical: Diplomacy wins the date
- Hungary (Tisza) carries the day and an ultimatum is presented to Serbia which they can comply with
- Serbia is humiliated
- Russia stays out of it
Is it even possible?
The loose cannon: No blank cheque from Germany
- AH invades as per OTL
- Russia declares war
- Germany stays out of it, deciding that the timing is not now
- Germany tries out an agreement with Britain
- France gets isolated (again)
AH in a war in 1914 with Russia?
- Stalemate?
- Russia takes over Balkan
- Russia gets swamped in Balkan politics and gets to spend resources putting out fires all over
- Germany looking on with glee as Russia is facing an ‘Afghanistan’ or ‘Vietnam’ in 1914.
Which one could be the result if it just goes a little bit different?
Ivan