1914 - one more time - the start of it all

All,

This is based on Clive Ponting’s book ‘Thirteen days’. Re-reading it as it is a mighty good book and rather detailed.

It has a few conclusions which we can agree or disagree with. However, they are fairly well documented.

In essence: The unfinished business of the Balkan wars was the trigger. Other elements (naval race, train time tables, etc) made it all possible, but these were not the triggers.

Diplomacy had won the day before and could again.

AH was determined to have a show-down with Serbia even with the knowledge that it was nearly a given it would lead to war with Russia and that Germany would be pulled in then. And also that it would lead to a major European war.

The annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 surely put petrol on the fire – Serbian nationalism and aggressive behaviour.

One of the goals of AH was also to get Bulgaria into the triple-alliance. That might have restored the old power balance in the Balkans.

So, where AH saw a war with Russia as a natural extension on any clamp-down on Serbia and the trigger for a European war, it still looks as though Germany was a bit more ambivalent on that account.

According to Ponting, Germany did not believe that Russia would be interested in a war, even if AH went to war with Serbia. However, they also concluded that if Russia did so, this was just as good a time as any to have the show-down with Russia anyway.

In essence: AH and Germany left it up to Russia whether there would be a war over Serbia.

Germany also encouraged AH to get on with it while the sentiment in Europe (among the ruling elite) was in their favour. Nobody was really OK with killing of royals – at least among the royals.

It raises a few questions:
- What did the Serbian government (or the radical factions) in Serbia hope to get out of killing Ferdinand?
- Did Russia see this as an opportunity to have a show-down with Germany AND AH?

It leads into a few WI’s:

The classical: AH invades Serbia within a few days with what resources they had:
This could result in:

- AH gets a bloody nose because they under-estimated the Serbian army response and started with in-sufficient resources (the harvest leave).
- AH minorities start questioning the viability of AH
- AH starts to crumble into constituent parts
- Russia is not getting involved

This opens a few interesting spin-offs:

How will Europe look if AH disintegrates in 1914-1916?

The other classical: Diplomacy wins the date
- Hungary (Tisza) carries the day and an ultimatum is presented to Serbia which they can comply with
- Serbia is humiliated
- Russia stays out of it
Is it even possible?

The loose cannon: No blank cheque from Germany
- AH invades as per OTL
- Russia declares war
- Germany stays out of it, deciding that the timing is not now
- Germany tries out an agreement with Britain
- France gets isolated (again)

AH in a war in 1914 with Russia?
- Stalemate?
- Russia takes over Balkan
- Russia gets swamped in Balkan politics and gets to spend resources putting out fires all over
- Germany looking on with glee as Russia is facing an ‘Afghanistan’ or ‘Vietnam’ in 1914.

Which one could be the result if it just goes a little bit different?

Ivan
 
I think if Germany stays out, AH folds not long after and is humiliated, bur not dissolved. Conclusion is somewhere between AH overplayed it and Royalty is free game.
 
In essence: The unfinished business of the Balkan wars was the trigger. Other elements (naval race, train time tables, etc) made it all possible, but these were not the triggers.

The Russo-Japanese war was a major factor as well. The Sanborn argument that the Balkan Wars were the beginning of decolonization and started a domino effect is also interesting.

Diplomacy had won the day before and could again.
But the Concert had just recently failed to prevent a war in the Balkans, and merely altered the peace deal a bit?

AH was determined to have a show-down with Serbia even with the knowledge that it was nearly a given it would lead to war with Russia and that Germany would be pulled in then. And also that it would lead to a major European war.
Serbia had just recently been involved to three wars - one of them against the Ottomans - without further escalation, so in retrospect it was not so clear. And at the beginning they really had the sympathy of European monarchies on their side. But they dithered and then overplayed their hand.

The annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908 surely put petrol on the fire – Serbian nationalism and aggressive behaviour.
The annexation happened as it did because of the Russo-Japanese war, and the desperation of Russian diplomats to seek new foreign policy success. In itself the Serbian nationalism was powerless to bring the Hapsburgs down.

One of the goals of AH was also to get Bulgaria into the triple-alliance. That might have restored the old power balance in the Balkans.
The Balkan Wars had gutted Bulgaria, so they were reluctant to make radical moves so soon after the last defeat. And Ferdinand wanted to play both sides, as was his habit.

So, where AH saw a war with Russia as a natural extension on any clamp-down on Serbia and the trigger for a European war, it still looks as though Germany was a bit more ambivalent on that account.
Konrad is a pivotal figure here as far as A-H is concerned.

According to Ponting, Germany did not believe that Russia would be interested in a war, even if AH went to war with Serbia. However, they also concluded that if Russia did so, this was just as good a time as any to have the show-down with Russia anyway.
As they concluded that Russian railway construction and recovery from the Russo-Japanese war would force them to change their war plans anyhow within three years. Here the lack of civilian control of the German military is an important factor.

In essence: AH and Germany left it up to Russia whether there would be a war over Serbia.

Germany also encouraged AH to get on with it while the sentiment in Europe (among the ruling elite) was in their favour. Nobody was really OK with killing of royals – at least among the royals.
And Wilhelm II still considered himself as a diplomatic mastermind who could make a deal with "dear cousin Nicky" if need be.
It raises a few questions:
- What did the Serbian government (or the radical factions) in Serbia hope to get out of killing Ferdinand?
A new war that would destroy the Hapsburgs and allow them to create Greater Serbia.
- Did Russia see this as an opportunity to have a show-down with Germany AND AH?
Russian leadership, just like their colleaques at Vienna, felt that they were honour-bound to intervene and could not stand another defeat.


The classical: AH invades Serbia within a few days with what resources they had:
This could result in:

- AH gets a bloody nose because they under-estimated the Serbian army response and started with in-sufficient resources (the harvest leave).
- AH minorities start questioning the viability of AH
- AH starts to crumble into constituent parts
- Russia is not getting involved

This opens a few interesting spin-offs:

How will Europe look if AH disintegrates in 1914-1916?

Everyone pointing A-H as a doomed dysfunctional anachronism has so far failed to credible explain why exactly they nevertheless soldiered on so long at the OTL world war, sustaining over a million casualties and only showing signs of breaking apart after the war was clearly lost and when their home front started to suffer from famine, diseases and lack of coal?

Now, as for the POD: AH initially gets a bloody nose, but pushes eventually to Belgrade by sheer numbers. At this point Grey and others call forth an international conference that might yet again succeed at defusing the crisis.

The other classical: Diplomacy wins the date
- Hungary (Tisza) carries the day and an ultimatum is presented to Serbia which they can comply with
- Serbia is humiliated
- Russia stays out of it
Is it even possible?
Yes, but the time window from the assassination is extremely short.

The loose cannon: No blank cheque from Germany
- AH invades as per OTL
- Russia declares war
- Germany stays out of it, deciding that the timing is not now
- Germany tries out an agreement with Britain
- France gets isolated (again)

A-H would not go in alone against Russia and Serbia, and the Triple Alliance would suffer irreplaceable damage. By this time Grey has stacked the Foreign Office with firmly anti-German diplomats, and the fundamental geopolitical situation is intact: France and Russia are threats to vital British colonial territories, whereas Germany is merely a naval challenger and an economic competitor. Thus it makes no sense for Britain to change course. They courted Germany earlier and got rebuked, after all.

AH in a war in 1914 with Russia?
- Stalemate?
- Russia takes over Balkan
- Russia gets swamped in Balkan politics and gets to spend resources putting out fires all over
- Germany looking on with glee as Russia is facing an ‘Afghanistan’ or ‘Vietnam’ in 1914.

Which one could be the result if it just goes a little bit different?

Ivan
Russia would win a war against A-H, but Germany could not sit such a war out and hope to prevail against the Entente afterwards.
 
Germany entering the war is essential for the start of hostilities. Thats why they were blamed for it.
 
It raises a few questions:
- What did the Serbian government (or the radical factions) in Serbia hope to get out of killing Ferdinand?
- Did Russia see this as an opportunity to have a show-down with Germany AND AH?

The Serbian government as such did not participate in the plot. The "radical" faction within Serbia (or rather, the Black Hand) wanted Franz Ferdinand dead because they believed A-H was preparing to invade Serbia before the end of the year, and that killing him was the only way to prevent the war.

Russia did not want an opportunity for a showdown with Germany and A-H - at least not at this point. Like Serbia, Russia did not feel ready. In fact, it refused some pretty good opportunities to undermine A-H throughout 1913 and 1914 because they were terrified of upsetting Germany and/or A-H.

The classical: AH invades Serbia within a few days with what resources they had:

The likely result is A-H getting a bloody nose and seeing that they'll have to undertake a proper mobilization. By this point, Europe has woken up from its stupor and A-H receives warnings from Russia and the Entente - possibly even an ultimatum of some sort. Then it's up to A-H:
-If they choose to continue the war, the other powers join in and we have a very similar situation to OTL's war.
-If they fold before international pressure, the matter is brought before a conference of the Great Powers, or put to arbitration before the Hague. A-H is humiliated but not to the point where it immediately crumbles.

As to the other options - a diplomatic solution is possible, if unlikely. Austria facing Russia alone doesn't seem possible. Germany will jump in on Austria's behalf and the rest of the Entente will jump in on Russia's behalf.
 
Great input. Many things raised.

It is still a bit unclear whether Russia was seeing a conflict with AH and Germany at some point in time (shorter time frame really). 1914 was probably a bit too early for Russia but then when? If at all.

If only AH and Germany perceive Russia as a threat and Russia is not aiming at a war - short time at least, it is failed diplomacy.

Serbia's goals: Did they consider that a European war could be the result? If so, it is a bit reckless.

If they had hoped to upset AH and maybe even get someone more amicable into being the heir, well and good.

The interesting part is if Tisza persuaded all to play diplomacy and not going the military route.

Ivan
 
There could be one more twist in this:

Britain and Russia were both competing in Iran (Persia). Persia was divided into three zones, Russia, Britain and piece n the middle.

However, Russia was aiming at ending this agreement which Britain was not happy about. It would give Russia access to the ports in the South. … and ndia was still very much a part of the game.

So, if Russia and Britain have a fall-out over Persia, will it then mean that Britain will not support Russia in Europe? British support for France was not done with great enthusiasm.
 
I would combine two factors:
If Germany doesnt give a blank cheque and instead tries to steer AH towards a potentially peaceful solution than Tisza can be more adamant and steadfest as well and maybe carry the day. This doesnt mean that Germany doesnt get involved if war breaks out - they really cant afford to sit back and see AH getting destroyed- they just dont go out of their way to assure Vienna of it.

And just one more thing: AH in 1914 was not on the verge of collapse or revolution. Without the war or some other major cathaclysm I think it would have endured in some form for quite a while.
 
One thing before we officially close this one:

USA

Would/could they have been a part of a solution/negotiation in July?
 
IOTL: no. Wilson floated the idea of mediation / arbitration and was essentially ignored. He was an unknown to the various chancelleries. In another timeline, with TR in the White House, I'd bet on it fairly heavily. TR was well known and more than that, well liked and respected throughout Europe. And he has the credentials in the form of the negotiated end to the Russo-Japanese war to demonstrate he can get it done.
 
Was the us not rally interested? or were they just ignored?

Ponting is leaning towards the first option.

one of the reasons for it all to come off the rails was the cumbersome exchange of info. Telegrams had to be made up, coded, decoded, etc.

Telephones were to some extent invented, but why not being used in a more constructive fashion?

The other one is the exchange through ambassadors. Not always reliable as they did paint the truth in their preferred colours.

Could Wilhelm had gone on to the train to see 'cousin Nicky'? Or Zimmerman to go see Sazonov?

Were there any innovative ways to stop it before it started?

The only other thing which might have made it less likely is if the leaders at the time had an idea of the horrors they were going to unleash? It looks (according to Ponting) that they did talk about the most horrible event, the unspeakable misery etc etc. But did they have any idea really?

Ivan
 
Top