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WWI started with an Austian declaration of war against Serbia and a Russian mobilization.
The Kaiser initially wanted to fight only Russia but was told that German war plans required a universal mobilization involving the immediate invasion of Luxembourg and Belgium.

Suppose that either - 1. an alternate war plan existed which implemented a war solely on the Eastern Front or 2. the Kaiser insisted that - regardless of the plan - war would go forward only on the Eastern Front. In either case, Germany declares that it has no quarrel with France and will not take offensive action in the West.

Would France have entered the war? It is unclear but I think it is overwhelmingly likely that, in the absence of any aggressive activity by Germany in the West, the UK would have stayed neutral.
In scenario 2, Germany would have gotten off to a slower start. But it is very likely that Germany and Austria would have defeated Russia and Serbia.
Would the war have remained contained? Would the shift in the balance of power after a German victory have changed subsequent history?
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