1914 - Italy, Greece & Romania join in

It is 1914 and the Race to the Sea has finished. Entente and German forces are now locked into an attritional struggle at Ypres, as per OTL.

In Romania, King Carol I is dead as per OTL.

Also OTL, on the Eastern Front, Russian forces, despite suffering setbacks against the Germans in East Prussia, are driving deep into Galicia, are besieging significant Austro-Hungarian forces at Przemysl and have also defeated German forces at the battle of Vistula River and look poised to invade German Silesia. (although that's just an illusion at this point - or is it?)

Furthermore, ITTL, the High Seas Fleet tried to score a win against the Royal Navy, but instead got severely mauled, whilst in Greece King Constantine I has recently died from natural causes, and the government is now firmly in the hands of Venizelos.

Under these circumstances, Britain and France promise Italy, Greece & Romania whatever they wanted to hear, and the three nations agree to join the war together on November 1st.

How much can the Entente profit from this?
 
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Well the big thing is Greece, with her in the war from the beginning there is a way to supply the Serbs immediately and frankly Bulgaria being surrounded by the Entente can think twice to enter the war...at least on the side of the CP, reaaally big changes for the Balkan and Gallipoli campaign
 

nbcman

Donor
There may not be a Gallipoli campaign as the Ottoman Empire hadn't formally entered the war by 1 November 1914. Maybe the Ottomans could have convinced the Entente powers that the Black Sea raids were an error and agreed to the Entente terms.
 
There may not be a Gallipoli campaign as the Ottoman Empire hadn't formally entered the war by 1 November 1914. Maybe the Ottomans could have convinced the Entente powers that the Black Sea raids were an error and agreed to the Entente terms.
According to wiki:
On 2 November the Grand Vizier expressed regret to the Allies for the operations of the Navy. The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Sazonov, declared that it was too late and that Russia considered this raid an act of war. The Ottoman Cabinet explained in vain that hostilities were begun without its sanction by German officers serving in the Navy. The Allies insisted on reparations to Russia, the dismissal of German officers from the Goeben and Breslau, and the internment of the German ships until the end of the war.

On 5 November, before the Ottoman Government responded, the United Kingdom and France also declared war on the Ottomans.

Would this change ITTL?
 
Yeah, the Black Sea raid probably won't happen. And if it does, it will be a truly independent initiative of the German officers, and not a German-Ottoman plot (as it was in OTL). In which case the Ottoman government would drop the German personnel and connections ASAP and spend the rest of the war in a state of very benevolent neutrality towards the Entente.

Assuming, at least, that Greece, Romania and Italy have all joined the war before the end of October.
 
Yeah, the Black Sea raid probably won't happen. And if it does, it will be a truly independent initiative of the German officers, and not a German-Ottoman plot (as it was in OTL). In which case the Ottoman government would drop the German personnel and connections ASAP and spend the rest of the war in a state of very benevolent neutrality towards the Entente.

Assuming, at least, that Greece, Romania and Italy have all joined the war before the end of October.

I had them join on November 1st. Guess that complicates things a bit, no?
 
I had them join on November 1st. Guess that complicates things a bit, no?

Well, its not like their prep for war/shift in diplomatic stance could happen quickly without the Turks noticing. My guess is as the world opinion continues to shift against Germany, Enver is going to start losing some influence in the Triumvirate and perhaps even lose faith in siding with Germany himself. While they may join on Nov. 1, the butterflies have started flapping well before then.
 
Let's examine both issues separately

Option 1.
Ottomans join as OTL

Option 2.
Ottomans prevent the Black Sea raid at the last possible second and remain neutral
 
likely i think they would still Join, but spend a bit more time building up forces and prepping for the sneak attacks. if Italy is already in the Entente, then the Ottomans, wanting Territory back, while likely include that in their negotiations for end-war territorial shifts. Bulgaria would build their armies earlier, and would still go to war wanting their territory BACK from Serbia/Greece/Romania, and we see the Balkan front just become a extension of the Eastern front. so, likely, not much change, just escalation earlier and more potential gains.

as for the rest of the war, that's interesting. with Greece/Italy/Romania in the war, all of them not fully prepared, A-H is surrounded on all sides. Germany then would likely just Dig in and eliminate fronts 1 by 1, sending troops to deal with Montenegro, Serbia, Romania, Fortify the Alpine front to stop the Italians, and then focus down Greece. Promising more territory from to Bulgaria/The Ottomans would be better for them to give them more incentive to join. Germany would also start looking for allies to distract the British. Promising Finland to Sweden would be a Start, but they need people like Argentina and other outliers to bring in more outer threats for britain to deal with until they can focus down Russia and France. if those 2 fall, it's Game over Germany wins. in all likelihood, same result
 
Let's examine both issues separately

Option 1.
Ottomans join as OTL

Option 2.
Ottomans prevent the Black Sea raid at the last possible second and remain neutral

Option 1

with Romania and Italy in the fight, the Russians are in great shape. The need for repeated attacks on East Prussia is gone as the Germans are moving East to save Austria. No more need to draw them off by attacking hopeless terrain. The Italians and Romanians should draw off what remains of the Austrian army and the six divisions the Russians have on the Romanian frontier are free for redeployment lot fith

What do the Bulgarians do? With both Romania and Greece in the war, it seems that the chances of the Germans just dropped like a rock. The Bulgarians are opportunistic territory seekers and probably attack the Ottomans for some crumbs

Option 2

Ottoman neutrality is a war winner for the Entente. Not only do the Russians get supplies, fifteen divisions are freed from the Caucus front in 1914. Couple this with the six on the Romanian border and the Austrians that the Romanians and Italians are going to keep busy, its hard to see Austria lasting until Christmas
 
Option 1

with Romania and Italy in the fight, the Russians are in great shape. The need for repeated attacks on East Prussia is gone as the Germans are moving East to save Austria. No more need to draw them off by attacking hopeless terrain. The Italians and Romanians should draw off what remains of the Austrian army and the six divisions the Russians have on the Romanian frontier are free for redeployment lot fith

What do the Bulgarians do? With both Romania and Greece in the war, it seems that the chances of the Germans just dropped like a rock. The Bulgarians are opportunistic territory seekers and probably attack the Ottomans for some crumbs

Option 2

Ottoman neutrality is a war winner for the Entente. Not only do the Russians get supplies, fifteen divisions are freed from the Caucus front in 1914. Couple this with the six on the Romanian border and the Austrians that the Romanians and Italians are going to keep busy, its hard to see Austria lasting until Christmas
While I overall agree with your statement, I think we underestimate the defensive capabilities of the KUK Army and overestimate the capacities of the Italian and Romanian Armies in 1914: Italy OTL was still reequipping at a frantic pace in 1915, notably in terms of artillery and automatic weapons. In that regard, the Romanian situation is even more precarious.
For me, Italy and Romania joining the war won't lead to a collapse of A-H within months. BUT it will surely result in the end of any offensive capacities for the KUK: they will have to defend the Carpathian mountains, the Alps-Slovenia and Transylvania. Sure these regions heavily favour the defenders but still: it will require a very significant number of men to man those new fronts. So Russian southern flank is completely secured in that regard since A-H won't have enough ressources to threaten them in Galicia. In that case, the offensives and counter-offensives in Central Poland against Germany could have interesting results since Russia could devote ressources so far used against the Austrians.
Greece joining the Entente (and the Greek Army was fairly pro-French after 1913) is basically a game-changer for Serbia and Montenegro: Greece has 14 Divisions so we can guess that she can send 9 Divisions to assist the Serbians. The Serbians themselves have 12 Divisions and Montenegro 40 000 men. Plus France can now send a ton of field guns, shells and rifles to Serbia without problem. Now Serbia doesn't need to go full offensive: they just need to hold the border with the equivalent of 20 Divisions: it's another front for the KUK, one which again needs men.
So for me, A-H is now unable to launch any offensive (unless Dear Conrad gets stubborn and decides to still relieve Premzyl like OTL, in which case A-H is indeed screwed) and will probably (if not certainly) unable to assist the Germans in the ITTL version of Gorlice-Tarnow Offensive (if there is any). The results of these are enormous since, IMHO, it was this offensive which broke Russia's back and limited their capacities for the rest of the war.

The SUblime Porte will remain neutral. Period. It was Talaat Pasha who was the real head of the CUP (not Enver) and the man was a cautious dude. Even OTL he hesitated for a long time before joining Enver.
Bulgaria? Eastern Thrace is really tempting for them and Britain will surely favour them in that regard since the one who controls Eastern Thrace controls the straits (to control Constantinople is'nt enough in that regard and who wants Constantinople?).
 
While I overall agree with your statement, I think we underestimate the defensive capabilities of the KUK Army and overestimate the capacities of the Italian and Romanian Armies in 1914: Italy OTL was still reequipping at a frantic pace in 1915, notably in terms of artillery and automatic weapons. In that regard, the Romanian situation is even more precarious.
For me, Italy and Romania joining the war won't lead to a collapse of A-H within months. BUT it will surely result in the end of any offensive capacities for the KUK: they will have to defend the Carpathian mountains, the Alps-Slovenia and Transylvania. Sure these regions heavily favour the defenders but still: it will require a very significant number of men to man those new fronts. So Russian southern flank is completely secured in that regard since A-H won't have enough ressources to threaten them in Galicia. In that case, the offensives and counter-offensives in Central Poland against Germany could have interesting results since Russia could devote ressources so far used against the Austrians.
Greece joining the Entente (and the Greek Army was fairly pro-French after 1913) is basically a game-changer for Serbia and Montenegro: Greece has 14 Divisions so we can guess that she can send 9 Divisions to assist the Serbians. The Serbians themselves have 12 Divisions and Montenegro 40 000 men. Plus France can now send a ton of field guns, shells and rifles to Serbia without problem. Now Serbia doesn't need to go full offensive: they just need to hold the border with the equivalent of 20 Divisions: it's another front for the KUK, one which again needs men.
So for me, A-H is now unable to launch any offensive (unless Dear Conrad gets stubborn and decides to still relieve Premzyl like OTL, in which case A-H is indeed screwed) and will probably (if not certainly) unable to assist the Germans in the ITTL version of Gorlice-Tarnow Offensive (if there is any). The results of these are enormous since, IMHO, it was this offensive which broke Russia's back and limited their capacities for the rest of the war.

The SUblime Porte will remain neutral. Period. It was Talaat Pasha who was the real head of the CUP (not Enver) and the man was a cautious dude. Even OTL he hesitated for a long time before joining Enver.
Bulgaria? Eastern Thrace is really tempting for them and Britain will surely favour them in that regard since the one who controls Eastern Thrace controls the straits (to control Constantinople is'nt enough in that regard and who wants Constantinople?).

Wars end when there is no longer any hope for victory. The people abandon the effort and mass desertions, failure to report for conscription and the sick lists grow. It doesn't take the government to throw in the towel. How long do the Germans and the Austrians hold out when this news hits? Its a powerful blow.

Probably, the Russians still go after Austria. Taking them down is the whole reason Russia is in the war. They might start pushing their allies to make an offer to the Germans. Something along the lines of Alsace and Lorraine for German Austria. Even if unfounded rumors of the sort take hold, the Austrians could collapse

From a purely military point of view, I agree with you. Austria could probably hold out until 1917 if the Ottomans and Bulgarians still join- which I doubt. If the Ottomans join, I'd put Bulgaria in the allied camp. If the Ottomans stay neutral (most likely) then Bulgaria stays neutral. In that case, the Austrians military will collapse no later than January 1, 1916. Probably a collapse in morale brings them down earlier- maybe the harvest in 1915
 
Wars end when there is no longer any hope for victory. The people abandon the effort and mass desertions, failure to report for conscription and the sick lists grow. It doesn't take the government to throw in the towel. How long do the Germans and the Austrians hold out when this news hits? Its a powerful blow.

Probably, the Russians still go after Austria. Taking them down is the whole reason Russia is in the war. They might start pushing their allies to make an offer to the Germans. Something along the lines of Alsace and Lorraine for German Austria. Even if unfounded rumors of the sort take hold, the Austrians could collapse

From a purely military point of view, I agree with you. Austria could probably hold out until 1917 if the Ottomans and Bulgarians still join- which I doubt. If the Ottomans join, I'd put Bulgaria in the allied camp. If the Ottomans stay neutral (most likely) then Bulgaria stays neutral. In that case, the Austrians military will collapse no later than January 1, 1916. Probably a collapse in morale brings them down earlier- maybe the harvest in 1915
I never said A-H could hold until 1917. I just said that A-H would hold at least several months so beyond 1914. But I wasn't very clear in the earlier post so my bad.
So for me, if A-H doesn't launch offensives during the winter of 1914-1915, can hold hold the line until late 1915-early 1916. After this, they will be forced IMHO to accept a peace which will lead to significant territorial losses (Galicia and Krakow; at least Trentino less Bozen and Triest, romanian parts of Transylvania and probably something for Serbia-Montenegro) or being purely dismantled a few months later. But IF Conrad gets stubborn and loses 800 000 men like OTL during the winter 1914-1915, then yes, these losses plus the three new fronts against Italy/Romania/Serbia-Greece will force A-H to sue for peace in Spring 1915. In which case, Germany's position is really but really precarious.
Agree with you for the Ottoman-Bulgarian part.
 
At the end I'm saying we would see massive changes to the Ottoman territory. Because you said they would allow whatever they wanted to hear, Greece would most certainly take a big bite out of Western Anatolia.
 
At the end I'm saying we would see massive changes to the Ottoman territory. Because you said they would allow whatever they wanted to hear, Greece would most certainly take a big bite out of Western Anatolia.
they promise what they wanted to hear

(subtle, yet important difference :p )
 
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