1914: Germany, Austria & Italy vs Serbia, Russia, France, Britain... and Spain?

[Tocomocho]

Last Christmas Eve, Spanish newspaper ABC published this article on a supposed 1914 plan that called Spain to join the Entente on the event of Italy's entry in WW1 on the side of its Triple Alliance "buddies", Germany and Austria-Hungary. Spain would provide its fleet rebuilt post-Moroccan crisis with British assistance, to join the French Mediterranean squadron and 50,000 men for Franco-British landings in Italy "and its nearby islands" (Sicily and Sardinia?). In addition, Spain offered to send 100,000 men more to the Franco-Italian border but the French general staff was less than enthusiastic with the idea.

Of course at this point the war was supposed to be solved in a matter of months. I can't see this war ever being as popular in Spain as in other countries either, what with people being sent to fight and die under foreign command, in a far place and fighting a country Spaniards have no ill feelings for...

Your thoughs?

 

[tenthring]

There is no good reason for Italy to join the war on the CP side. There wasn't a very good reason to join on the Entente side either, they really overestimated how well the Brits would do in forcing the straights.

While the Italians certainly put a little pressure on the side they go against, its pretty easy to defend against Italy no matter who they join. Italy would probably fall pretty fast against the Entente. The best bet for the CP might even be a neutral Italy, at least then they can import through the blockade.

The only possible way Italy could matter is if it somehow affected the way the Marne turned out in 1914. That requires immediate entry and fast mobilization, not sure even then. 1915-1917 are just worthless slogging matches on the western front. If anything a few less Entente troops there might mean a few less dumb offensives.

 

[SunilTanna]

What would Spain hope to gain in this scenario? And why did they want to fight Italy?

 

[MattII]

Well for Spain, I imagine Cameroon (or even just a part of it) would be a nice prize. I'm minded to ask where the Ottomans stand in all of this.

 

[Tocomocho]

What would Spain hope to gain in this scenario?

Prestige. Making up for 1898.

The article mentions the dispute over Tangiers. With Spain's entry, France would accept full Spanish control. IOTL it was put under international rule ("international" meaning a joint Spanish-French-British-and later Italian joint commission). Other than that, I can only think of some testimonial part of Cameroon (a la Belgian Ruanda-Urundi and Portuguese Kionga). I'm not sure the French would agree to revise Morocco's partition further.

And why did they want to fight Italy?

It is less that they wanted to and more that Britain and France needed to cover that front while the bulk of their attention was on Belgium and northern France.

Well for Spain, I imagine Cameroon (or even just a part of it) would be a nice prize. I'm minded to ask where the Ottomans stand in all of this.

Do Goeben and Breslau make it to Turkey? Do they bother?

 

[MattII]

What was Italy's food situation like at the time? Could she feed herself, or would she have acted as a dead-weight on the CP in that regard (assuming with Spain in the Entente that the Strait of Hercules is more-or-less sealed from CP shipping)?

 

[LordKalvert]

There is no good reason for Italy to join the war on the CP side. There wasn't a very good reason to join on the Entente side either, they really overestimated how well the Brits would do in forcing the straights.

While the Italians certainly put a little pressure on the side they go against, its pretty easy to defend against Italy no matter who they join. Italy would probably fall pretty fast against the Entente. The best bet for the CP might even be a neutral Italy, at least then they can import through the blockade.

The only possible way Italy could matter is if it somehow affected the way the Marne turned out in 1914. That requires immediate entry and fast mobilization, not sure even then. 1915-1917 are just worthless slogging matches on the western front. If anything a few less Entente troops there might mean a few less dumb offensives.

There are a lot of reasons why Italy could decide to join the Central Powers:

1) If the Germans battlefield success convinced them that the Germans were likely to win, then any offer from the Entente would be worthless

2) The Italians didn't like Austria but they didn't really relish Russia as a neighbor and they also had a lot of problems with France as well

3) Serbian expansionism could threaten Italian domination over the Adriatic as well. Disagreements with Serbian claims was one of the bigger stumbling blocks to Italian entry on behalf of the Entente

4) In a Central Power victory, the Germans would not be so beholden to Austria and they could offer Italy protection against Austria. Indeed, the Germans might come to think that partitioning Austria was in their interests

5) The Entente had a lot of territory that Italy could find quite useful- Algeria, Tunis and Morocco for one

6) Italy could offer the Germans a lot in WWI. Immediate entry would have been best as it could have drawn off five to ten French divisions while suppling troops for the Alsatian front. The Italian fleet could also disrupt French reinforcements from arriving from Algeria

But even later, Italian entrance could do a lot. It would effectively end Franco-British control over the Mediterranean and make that Sea hotly contested. It would likely be a no mans zone where nothing much got through at all for either side. This would effectively end the Gallopoli campaign, isolate Serbia and free up the Austrian forces sent to the Italian front. Russia and Serbia are going down hard in this scenario and Romania and Greece aren't getting involved unless they also join the CPs

These are serious gains for the Central Powers Given the close run thing that WWI is, Italian entrance on behalf of her Triple Alliance partners would definitely tilt the balance enough to give Germany the victory

 

[MattII]

Only if Spain stays out, otherwise the Entente can just seal the Strait of Gibraltar, and cut them off from the world. Also costs them Eritirea and Italian Somaliland, and probably also Libya.

 

[Tocomocho]

Any naval buffs? What do you think of a battle around Sardinia between France+Spain+Whatever the British send there vs Italy+Austria-Hungary+Whatever the Germans manage to scrap?

 

[TRH]

I doubt Italy would enter quickly no matter what happens. They needed to wait till 1915 to recover from the 1911 war, and even then, they should have waited longer. Lukedalton tends to get drawn to threads involving Italy in WWI, and he tends to be the expert on the subject, so expect elaboration from him before long. Of course, he'll start by pointing out that even Italian neutrality would take a lot of doing, since at least under Salandra they leaned pro-Entente a lot more strongly than people appreciate.

 

[lukedalton]

I doubt Italy would enter quickly no matter what happens. They needed to wait till 1915 to recover from the 1911 war, and even then, they should have waited longer. Lukedalton tends to get drawn to threads involving Italy in WWI, and he tends to be the expert on the subject, so expect elaboration from him before long. Of course, he'll start by pointing out that even Italian neutrality would take a lot of doing, since at least under Salandra they leaned pro-Entente a lot more strongly than people appreciate.

Damn i'm that predicatble? Need to get a life

Joking aside what TRH said above is totally correct, any thought of enter the war immediately was squashed by the real report regarding the supply situation, plus by that time relationships between rome and Vienna was at a very historical low.
If you want Italy in the war from day one, at least Giolitti need to accept the 'just before the war is launced' Ottoman proposal for a administrative control of Libya but the OE retaining formal possession of the land. In this manner Italy don't deplete is resources, the socialist will not be burn badly by supporting the war and some bad diplomatic exchange between the two technically allied nation of Italya and A-H will not happen; naturally there will be no or a totally different Balkan war.

 

[torten]

On Naval battles, Italy had 2 dreadnought at the start of the war, though one had just entered service. They gained three more Dreadnoughts in mid 1915, And one more in 1916, plus 4 decent modern Pre dreadnoughts. France had 4 dreadnoughts in 1914, and a lot of pre dreadnoughts. Factoring in that the royal navy could have sent a battlecruiser or two in 1914, the Italians would be completely destroyed if they left port in 1914 as a naval force.

Also, France might give Spain some more of Morocco just to get the Spanish support.

 

[BlondieBC]

What was Italy's food situation like at the time? Could she feed herself, or would she have acted as a dead-weight on the CP in that regard (assuming with Spain in the Entente that the Strait of Hercules is more-or-less sealed from CP shipping)?

Food would be an issue, but my understanding is that coal is the bigger issue.

While Italy joining the CP is benefit to the CP from OTL, IMO the best use for the CP is a neutral but pro-CP leaning Italy that may enter the war near the end. And besides leaking on the embargo, there are thing that Italy can do for the CP. Keeping a portion of its troops near the French border will tie down many corps of French troops badly needed in defending Paris in 1914. Now this is from memory, but in IOTL seems like France moved about 300K troops from Southern France after Italy indicated it would not join the CP. Don't remember which month. Actions like this can have profound effects on the war by weakening Western Entente attacks and allowing the CP more of the initiative.

 

[BlondieBC]

Only if Spain stays out, otherwise the Entente can just seal the Strait of Gibraltar, and cut them off from the world. Also costs them Eritirea and Italian Somaliland, and probably also Libya.

Yes, largely agree, so just like OTL where Italy joined because it thought Austria was about to break and it would be a relatively easy walk to Vienna, you need ITTL for Italy to think the Entente is about to fold. The view does not have to be correct, just believed.

I really have trouble getting Italy on the CP side before late 1915 or more realistically 1916. Even in a scenario where A-H avoids disaster and the Ottomans have some good luck (Wiking's Conrads turns East TL), it is still not a clear quick CP win. Ottomans will run into logistical issues as Black Sea shipping is shut down, and the Ottomans deal with 2nd or 3rd class rail and road network. You get battles in the east for Austria that while are wins compared to OTL will look to observers of TTL as bloody and inconclusive fights. Both views are correct in a way. You can probably get Serbia falling earlier and Bulgaria entering the war sooner, but not sure this does a lot for Italy entering. So really 1916 is the earliest likely time I can see Italy trying to pull what Benny the Moose would do and join a war "right before the win" for easy territorial gains. And all this against the almost sure loss of colonies as you pointed out. Against the Uk fleet causing them fits. And against attacking into rough terrain into France. And with a food and coal shortage.

Just hard to see before you get into the internal politics of Italy as others have pointed out.

 

[BlondieBC]

Any naval buffs? What do you think of a battle around Sardinia between France+Spain+Whatever the British send there vs Italy+Austria-Hungary+Whatever the Germans manage to scrap?

The big CP ships probably mostly stay in port except for possibly a few quick trips out when the odds are favorable. The bigger Entente issue will be the smaller ships (U-boats, AMC, cruisers, mines, destroyers) likely effectively shutting down the Med Sea as merchant shipping. While not the only option, the likely result is a sea that has few to no merchant shipping for the duration of the war beside possibly very short runs between ports along relatively safe coast lines. Entente cuts at easy to defend check points (Gibraltar and Suez) and harasses Med with ships from these bases. Italy probably can keep Entente ships off its coast most of the time.

Italy has massive supply issues. Entente has some issues related to slower ships being force to divert either around Africa or South America. A lot depends on the exact month Italy joins.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

On Naval battles, Italy had 2 dreadnought at the start of the war, though one had just entered service. They gained three more Dreadnoughts in mid 1915, And one more in 1916, plus 4 decent modern Pre dreadnoughts. France had 4 dreadnoughts in 1914, and a lot of pre dreadnoughts. Factoring in that the royal navy could have sent a battlecruiser or two in 1914, the Italians would be completely destroyed if they left port in 1914 as a naval force.

Also, France might give Spain some more of Morocco just to get the Spanish support.

But A-H had three dreadnought ready to support their Italian ally (and a fourth nearing completion).

You really need a better performing Austria-Hungary for Italy joining the CP though.