1914 / 1915 Messina Earthquake

[ghappy1000]

What if there was an earthquake similar to otl Messina 6 years later than otl? Or maybe, the Avezzano Earthquake goes worse than otl. Would Italy stay neutral in WW1? And what about WW1 in general?

 

[ghappy1000]

Any takers? I presume there are no replies because the global impact is too similar to the 'Italy stays neutral' scenario?

 

[lukedalton]

Any takers? I presume there are no replies because the global impact is too similar to the 'Italy stays neutral' scenario?

Bingo, an even worse Avezzano earthquacke or a new natural disaster like that mean that in general italian attention will be directed towards that problem and with the relief effort ongoing there will be less men and resources for the army.
In the end Italy will accept the CP offert for neutrality and bide his time so yes it's basically an 'Italy stays neutral' scenario

 

[raharris1973]

Which is less implausible -

A) Italy staying out due to a geological POD that only manifest themselves on the earth's surface in the big 1914-1915 earthquake?

or

B) Italy staying out due to purely human political alterations?

 

[lukedalton]

Which is less implausible -

A) Italy staying out due to a geological POD that only manifest themselves on the earth's surface in the big 1914-1915 earthquake?

We are talking about an earthquake like the Messina of 1908 so it mean around 120.000 deaths and a couple of city leveled, between the humanitarian and economical consequence mean that Italy will have less resources to upgrade the army and so less incentive to being dragged in the massacre, plus the disaster will turn the collective attention of the Italian people away from the debate between neutralist and interventionist in a crucial moment of the negotiation between Rome and Vienna.