This is not Bulgarwank.
It is a question of what-if order given the following premises:
Bulgaria spends the same amount or less of money which it spent OTL until the First Balkan War. NO technological ASB things. Everything is kept realistic in economical, technological, finansial, demographic aspect.
1. Army
In OTL - 639 567, from which Acting Army of 366 000 + 14 670 macedono-odrin militia ( with intelligence-diversion functions ). ( During WW1 the BG armed forces had 885 175 people! )... we know the exact data about the Three armies, the cavalry, the navy, aviation and militia in OTL.
In TTL - say 750 000, of which 500 000 Active army? Per instance Three armies 150 000 each + 25 000 militia + 25 000 cavalry
2. WEAPONS:
In OTL - everything is imported. The weapons bought are more or less modern, but very very expensive. The contemporaryu media wrote that the artilery guns came out 8 times more expensive per unit than the would-be cost of analogue German ones.
In TTL - in 1900 Bulgaria undertakes a plan for establishing of military-industrial complex.
2.1. rifles and machine guns
In OTL - "343 650 guns and rifles and 212 311 000 bullets ( incl. for the machine guns ) or about 600 bullets per barrel". ( It seems that this ratio defines the size of the Active Army + ( only 88 Maxim machine guns, which form only 36 heavy-machine guns groups. Everything is imported.
In TTL - 500 000+ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondragón_rifle rifles + 1 500 000 000 bullets national production?
In OTL SIG almost goes insolvent because of the fact that Mexico did not pay the order.
In TTL - Bulgarian state can "save" SIG pouring in as capitals serious money which OTL went for buying expensive foreign weapons. In fact BG can buy-out SIG and to move it in BG. Thus BG would buy ready technologies and production machines ( which can make production machines, too ).
In OTL SIG has been contracted by Mexico on 160 swiss francs per piece in 1901, and if these are produced locally in BG ( say 50 000 units p.a. from 1900 to 1912 ), they would cost at they production cost of say between 80 and 120 swiss francs per unit.
Look the specs of these Mondragon Rifles: they use the same caliber as the Maxim machine guns but with several TIMES higher rate of fire. According to the contemporary 1912 nomenclature, Mondragons would be classified as "heavy heavy machine guns"
On single shot regime these have also not bad sniper qualities. With TTL choise for rifles BG would have half a million "heavy machine guns groups".
Producing the rifles BG would not only save money given OTL for imports, but would capitalize profits from establishing of industrial base.
Cost - 60-100 mln. lev ( equal to francs due to the Latin ( golden ) Monetary Union - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Monetary_Union
2.2. Artilery Guns
In OTL - 1116 guns bought super-costly from a french firm.
In TTL - 50 000 guns? How - in 1910 OTL the american Davis invents the Recoilless Gun http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_gun . The recoilless guns have the same firepower by caliber with mass of 10-12% of the standard ones. The recoilless gun is simply a pipe with shocks for increasing the velocity ( momentum ) of the exit gasses and dissipation. No moving parts. Well, it consumes between 200% and 1000% of the propelant of the classic ones, BUT with caliber of 150-200mm will weight only 40-50kg together with the support legs, and could be instantly moved with horses, donkeys, ... and on shoulders accross creeks, dales and bushes. The pipage and other few components could be easily and quickly produced en masse by simple, cheap factories in BG. The shells too. Such way on the same cost BG could have not a thousand guns , but dozens if not hundreds of thousands of artilery units. The artilery-infantry ratio would be 100+ guns per 1000 soldiers instead of 4 guns per 1000 soldiers as in OTL.
Such guns:
2.3. Navy
In OTL 6 pieces of small mine deposition small ships, bought AGAIN from Schneider.
In TTL - 1000 units of wooden torpedo boats. 50 feet each. 30-50 knots speed. BG production. Waterline on ~1m so they to be able to sneak in many rivers. Essentially nothing more than 17th century style Cossack Chaikas, furnished with compact power plant ( small powerfull steam engines 1000 francs each? ). Carrying 4-5 people crew, everyone armed with 100-bullet Mondragons. Carrying 4 torpedoes each ( BG production, too ) + a dozen recoilless guns. Cheap and easy for production, fast, light, with range of several hundred naval miles. When necessary to appear in a sea different from the Black sea - they can be easily shipped by train, carts, or ported accross land with human and animal force. Except as FAC ( Fast Attacking Crafts ) they have double usage as landing vessels moving 40-50 infantry people.
Such boats:
1000-ish boats wouldn't cost more than 5 mln. francs.
2.4. Aviation
In OTL - 26 or 29 Berilio aircrafts and 1-2 tied baloons.
In TTL - 1000-2000 units of BG own production of Berilio design, with the more powerfull 100HP engines and heavier capacity and cruising speed of 100-ish km/h. According to historical invoices from WW1 one airplane is delivered on between $5000 and 8000 USD, the engines are separately invoiced on $700-800 USD. In OTL 1910 some Russian offers to BG for 250 000 levs ( francs ) to be established an workshop for airplanes production and pilots school. The interest of the BG military towards aviation exists from several years earlier. To be built 1000-2000 airplanes does not need more technology and know-how than making of 1000 horse driven phaitons. Only the engines or their components has to be imported, unless IF with moving the Swiss SIG in BG, the BGs do not buy also means of production of engines. The Chataldja bomb ( the grandmother of all free-fall boms used in WW1 and WW2 and nowadays ) is created by BG pilot and aviation constructor. The TTL BG "Berilio's" can carry 5-6 such. 4 flights a day on distance of 100km return = delivery of 0.5 tonnes explossive to the target by each airplane. The original used in the OTL Balkan war against Adrianople by the BG OTL forces Chataldja bomb has 20kg explosive and opens 2m deep and 4-5m wide "wound" in the ground.
The cost for having 1000+ airplanes together with the capital cost for the engine factory and airplane workshops would be less then 10 000 000 lev.
Such airplanes:
3. Demography - BG is not small at all in 1912. It has population twice bigger tham the ones of Greece or Serbia, and the total number of ethnic Bulgarians on the Balkans exceeds 7 mln. people. ( Roughly slightly over the half of the total Balkans population ). Heavily armed blitzkrieg is also a solution if fighting with multiple enemies is tight sequence - von Schliffen plan against France and Russia is the finest example. It is solution in demographic-ecionomical plan. Blitzkrieg allows tha attacker to limit the losses to the immediate ones, and to be avoided the capitalization of the expenses in wealth and human lives for the military effort. The long war destroys the weak. Vice versa the blitzkrieg knocks down giants. ( OTL example Japan vs. Russia in OTL 1904-1905. )
4. Finance and economy:
According to historical data we know that the volume of industrial production of BG for OTL 1912 is 120 000 000 levs ( i.e. swiss francs, Latin Monetary Union ). The GDP must've been between 1 and 2 billion levs p.a. The historical budgets of the Principality / Tsardom grow OTL steadily from 120-ish to 300-ish million levs in the period 1900-1911. In OTL in the period 1908-1912 BG spends steadily about 1/4th of its budget for military purposes - mainly import of armament. On cumulative estimations the monetary cost of the Balkan wars for Bulgaria is between 1.3 and 2 billion levs, and the analysis shows that this was bearable cost ( under 50% of GDP p.a. ), given the fact that indeed the Balkan wars OTL no matter how bitter for BG have not stumble its economical progress and the WW1 failure rocks and shocks significantly the BG economy. In 1915 OTL BG enters quite "fresh" the WW1. WW1 also proves that Romania and Serbia are conquerable even after the BG loss in the Second Balkan War and even with OTL army in matter of weeks.
SO, if ITTL 1900-1912 BG was spending the same way as in OTL a quarter of the national budget for build-up of a Supreme Armed Forces ( 1000 airplanes, 1000 FAC boats, 50 000 artilery guns, 500 000 machine guns - snipers, 750 000 total armed staff of which 500 000 active army ... ), the total sum of military expenses would be more or less the same as in OTL:
1900 - 30 000 000
1901 - 35 000 000
1902 - 37 000 000
1903 - 40 000 000
1904 - 45 000 000
1905 - 45 000 000
1906 - 50 000 000
1907 - 55 000 000
1908 - 60 000 000
1909 - 70 000 000
1910 - 80 000 000
1911 - 80 000 000
1912 - 90 000 000
------------
Totally : > 650 000 000 ( direct state military expenses ).
I repeat myself again , but if wars are short - 2-3 months per campaign, the cost of the army and the military effort as a whole would be times and times lower, which gives the paradoxal result that the Supreme Army TL would cost BG under 1 bln. lev, several times less than the OTL one.
Capital costs for establishment of BG own military-industrial base + the production of the cited above numbers and type of armaments would consume about 1/3rd of the cited above ( same as in OTL! ) military budget.
The rest 2/3rds or 400+ mln. SHALL be enough for:
- several billion bullets 0.303 Mauser.
- several hundred torpedoes
- fuel and other consumables for the boats and aircrafts
- several million shells for the recoilless guns
- several hundred thousands of free-fall aviation bombs
- food, clothes, shoes, logistics
- spare parts ...
and EVERYTHING.
The 600-700 mln. lev poured into the establishment of the military-industrial complex of BG will positivelly capitalize and will double effectivelly the nations GDP.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now:
WHAT such Supreme War machine can do to the neighbours?
Hint from OTL WW1: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_Campaign_(World_War_I)#Casualties
It is a question of what-if order given the following premises:
Bulgaria spends the same amount or less of money which it spent OTL until the First Balkan War. NO technological ASB things. Everything is kept realistic in economical, technological, finansial, demographic aspect.
1. Army
In OTL - 639 567, from which Acting Army of 366 000 + 14 670 macedono-odrin militia ( with intelligence-diversion functions ). ( During WW1 the BG armed forces had 885 175 people! )... we know the exact data about the Three armies, the cavalry, the navy, aviation and militia in OTL.
In TTL - say 750 000, of which 500 000 Active army? Per instance Three armies 150 000 each + 25 000 militia + 25 000 cavalry
2. WEAPONS:
In OTL - everything is imported. The weapons bought are more or less modern, but very very expensive. The contemporaryu media wrote that the artilery guns came out 8 times more expensive per unit than the would-be cost of analogue German ones.
In TTL - in 1900 Bulgaria undertakes a plan for establishing of military-industrial complex.
2.1. rifles and machine guns
In OTL - "343 650 guns and rifles and 212 311 000 bullets ( incl. for the machine guns ) or about 600 bullets per barrel". ( It seems that this ratio defines the size of the Active Army + ( only 88 Maxim machine guns, which form only 36 heavy-machine guns groups. Everything is imported.
In TTL - 500 000+ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondragón_rifle rifles + 1 500 000 000 bullets national production?
In OTL SIG almost goes insolvent because of the fact that Mexico did not pay the order.
In TTL - Bulgarian state can "save" SIG pouring in as capitals serious money which OTL went for buying expensive foreign weapons. In fact BG can buy-out SIG and to move it in BG. Thus BG would buy ready technologies and production machines ( which can make production machines, too ).
In OTL SIG has been contracted by Mexico on 160 swiss francs per piece in 1901, and if these are produced locally in BG ( say 50 000 units p.a. from 1900 to 1912 ), they would cost at they production cost of say between 80 and 120 swiss francs per unit.
Look the specs of these Mondragon Rifles: they use the same caliber as the Maxim machine guns but with several TIMES higher rate of fire. According to the contemporary 1912 nomenclature, Mondragons would be classified as "heavy heavy machine guns"
Producing the rifles BG would not only save money given OTL for imports, but would capitalize profits from establishing of industrial base.
Cost - 60-100 mln. lev ( equal to francs due to the Latin ( golden ) Monetary Union - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Monetary_Union
2.2. Artilery Guns
In OTL - 1116 guns bought super-costly from a french firm.
In TTL - 50 000 guns? How - in 1910 OTL the american Davis invents the Recoilless Gun http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_gun . The recoilless guns have the same firepower by caliber with mass of 10-12% of the standard ones. The recoilless gun is simply a pipe with shocks for increasing the velocity ( momentum ) of the exit gasses and dissipation. No moving parts. Well, it consumes between 200% and 1000% of the propelant of the classic ones, BUT with caliber of 150-200mm will weight only 40-50kg together with the support legs, and could be instantly moved with horses, donkeys, ... and on shoulders accross creeks, dales and bushes. The pipage and other few components could be easily and quickly produced en masse by simple, cheap factories in BG. The shells too. Such way on the same cost BG could have not a thousand guns , but dozens if not hundreds of thousands of artilery units. The artilery-infantry ratio would be 100+ guns per 1000 soldiers instead of 4 guns per 1000 soldiers as in OTL.
Such guns:
2.3. Navy
In OTL 6 pieces of small mine deposition small ships, bought AGAIN from Schneider.
In TTL - 1000 units of wooden torpedo boats. 50 feet each. 30-50 knots speed. BG production. Waterline on ~1m so they to be able to sneak in many rivers. Essentially nothing more than 17th century style Cossack Chaikas, furnished with compact power plant ( small powerfull steam engines 1000 francs each? ). Carrying 4-5 people crew, everyone armed with 100-bullet Mondragons. Carrying 4 torpedoes each ( BG production, too ) + a dozen recoilless guns. Cheap and easy for production, fast, light, with range of several hundred naval miles. When necessary to appear in a sea different from the Black sea - they can be easily shipped by train, carts, or ported accross land with human and animal force. Except as FAC ( Fast Attacking Crafts ) they have double usage as landing vessels moving 40-50 infantry people.
Such boats:
1000-ish boats wouldn't cost more than 5 mln. francs.
2.4. Aviation
In OTL - 26 or 29 Berilio aircrafts and 1-2 tied baloons.
In TTL - 1000-2000 units of BG own production of Berilio design, with the more powerfull 100HP engines and heavier capacity and cruising speed of 100-ish km/h. According to historical invoices from WW1 one airplane is delivered on between $5000 and 8000 USD, the engines are separately invoiced on $700-800 USD. In OTL 1910 some Russian offers to BG for 250 000 levs ( francs ) to be established an workshop for airplanes production and pilots school. The interest of the BG military towards aviation exists from several years earlier. To be built 1000-2000 airplanes does not need more technology and know-how than making of 1000 horse driven phaitons. Only the engines or their components has to be imported, unless IF with moving the Swiss SIG in BG, the BGs do not buy also means of production of engines. The Chataldja bomb ( the grandmother of all free-fall boms used in WW1 and WW2 and nowadays ) is created by BG pilot and aviation constructor. The TTL BG "Berilio's" can carry 5-6 such. 4 flights a day on distance of 100km return = delivery of 0.5 tonnes explossive to the target by each airplane. The original used in the OTL Balkan war against Adrianople by the BG OTL forces Chataldja bomb has 20kg explosive and opens 2m deep and 4-5m wide "wound" in the ground.
The cost for having 1000+ airplanes together with the capital cost for the engine factory and airplane workshops would be less then 10 000 000 lev.
Such airplanes:
3. Demography - BG is not small at all in 1912. It has population twice bigger tham the ones of Greece or Serbia, and the total number of ethnic Bulgarians on the Balkans exceeds 7 mln. people. ( Roughly slightly over the half of the total Balkans population ). Heavily armed blitzkrieg is also a solution if fighting with multiple enemies is tight sequence - von Schliffen plan against France and Russia is the finest example. It is solution in demographic-ecionomical plan. Blitzkrieg allows tha attacker to limit the losses to the immediate ones, and to be avoided the capitalization of the expenses in wealth and human lives for the military effort. The long war destroys the weak. Vice versa the blitzkrieg knocks down giants. ( OTL example Japan vs. Russia in OTL 1904-1905. )
4. Finance and economy:
According to historical data we know that the volume of industrial production of BG for OTL 1912 is 120 000 000 levs ( i.e. swiss francs, Latin Monetary Union ). The GDP must've been between 1 and 2 billion levs p.a. The historical budgets of the Principality / Tsardom grow OTL steadily from 120-ish to 300-ish million levs in the period 1900-1911. In OTL in the period 1908-1912 BG spends steadily about 1/4th of its budget for military purposes - mainly import of armament. On cumulative estimations the monetary cost of the Balkan wars for Bulgaria is between 1.3 and 2 billion levs, and the analysis shows that this was bearable cost ( under 50% of GDP p.a. ), given the fact that indeed the Balkan wars OTL no matter how bitter for BG have not stumble its economical progress and the WW1 failure rocks and shocks significantly the BG economy. In 1915 OTL BG enters quite "fresh" the WW1. WW1 also proves that Romania and Serbia are conquerable even after the BG loss in the Second Balkan War and even with OTL army in matter of weeks.
SO, if ITTL 1900-1912 BG was spending the same way as in OTL a quarter of the national budget for build-up of a Supreme Armed Forces ( 1000 airplanes, 1000 FAC boats, 50 000 artilery guns, 500 000 machine guns - snipers, 750 000 total armed staff of which 500 000 active army ... ), the total sum of military expenses would be more or less the same as in OTL:
1900 - 30 000 000
1901 - 35 000 000
1902 - 37 000 000
1903 - 40 000 000
1904 - 45 000 000
1905 - 45 000 000
1906 - 50 000 000
1907 - 55 000 000
1908 - 60 000 000
1909 - 70 000 000
1910 - 80 000 000
1911 - 80 000 000
1912 - 90 000 000
------------
Totally : > 650 000 000 ( direct state military expenses ).
I repeat myself again , but if wars are short - 2-3 months per campaign, the cost of the army and the military effort as a whole would be times and times lower, which gives the paradoxal result that the Supreme Army TL would cost BG under 1 bln. lev, several times less than the OTL one.
Capital costs for establishment of BG own military-industrial base + the production of the cited above numbers and type of armaments would consume about 1/3rd of the cited above ( same as in OTL! ) military budget.
The rest 2/3rds or 400+ mln. SHALL be enough for:
- several billion bullets 0.303 Mauser.
- several hundred torpedoes
- fuel and other consumables for the boats and aircrafts
- several million shells for the recoilless guns
- several hundred thousands of free-fall aviation bombs
- food, clothes, shoes, logistics
- spare parts ...
and EVERYTHING.
The 600-700 mln. lev poured into the establishment of the military-industrial complex of BG will positivelly capitalize and will double effectivelly the nations GDP.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now:
WHAT such Supreme War machine can do to the neighbours?
Hint from OTL WW1: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_Campaign_(World_War_I)#Casualties