1912 - Bulgaria on super-steroids

This is not Bulgarwank.

It is a question of what-if order given the following premises:

Bulgaria spends the same amount or less of money which it spent OTL until the First Balkan War. NO technological ASB things. Everything is kept realistic in economical, technological, finansial, demographic aspect.


1. Army

In OTL - 639 567, from which Acting Army of 366 000 + 14 670 macedono-odrin militia ( with intelligence-diversion functions ). ( During WW1 the BG armed forces had 885 175 people! )... we know the exact data about the Three armies, the cavalry, the navy, aviation and militia in OTL.

In TTL - say 750 000, of which 500 000 Active army? Per instance Three armies 150 000 each + 25 000 militia + 25 000 cavalry

2. WEAPONS:

In OTL - everything is imported. The weapons bought are more or less modern, but very very expensive. The contemporaryu media wrote that the artilery guns came out 8 times more expensive per unit than the would-be cost of analogue German ones.

In TTL - in 1900 Bulgaria undertakes a plan for establishing of military-industrial complex.

2.1. rifles and machine guns

In OTL - "343 650 guns and rifles and 212 311 000 bullets ( incl. for the machine guns ) or about 600 bullets per barrel". ( It seems that this ratio defines the size of the Active Army + ( only 88 Maxim machine guns, which form only 36 heavy-machine guns groups. Everything is imported.

In TTL - 500 000+ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mondragón_rifle rifles + 1 500 000 000 bullets national production?

In OTL SIG almost goes insolvent because of the fact that Mexico did not pay the order.

In TTL - Bulgarian state can "save" SIG pouring in as capitals serious money which OTL went for buying expensive foreign weapons. In fact BG can buy-out SIG and to move it in BG. Thus BG would buy ready technologies and production machines ( which can make production machines, too ).

In OTL SIG has been contracted by Mexico on 160 swiss francs per piece in 1901, and if these are produced locally in BG ( say 50 000 units p.a. from 1900 to 1912 ), they would cost at they production cost of say between 80 and 120 swiss francs per unit.

Look the specs of these Mondragon Rifles: they use the same caliber as the Maxim machine guns but with several TIMES higher rate of fire. According to the contemporary 1912 nomenclature, Mondragons would be classified as "heavy heavy machine guns" ;) On single shot regime these have also not bad sniper qualities. With TTL choise for rifles BG would have half a million "heavy machine guns groups".

Producing the rifles BG would not only save money given OTL for imports, but would capitalize profits from establishing of industrial base.

Cost - 60-100 mln. lev ( equal to francs due to the Latin ( golden ) Monetary Union - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Monetary_Union

2.2. Artilery Guns

In OTL - 1116 guns bought super-costly from a french firm.

In TTL - 50 000 guns? How - in 1910 OTL the american Davis invents the Recoilless Gun http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_gun . The recoilless guns have the same firepower by caliber with mass of 10-12% of the standard ones. The recoilless gun is simply a pipe with shocks for increasing the velocity ( momentum ) of the exit gasses and dissipation. No moving parts. Well, it consumes between 200% and 1000% of the propelant of the classic ones, BUT with caliber of 150-200mm will weight only 40-50kg together with the support legs, and could be instantly moved with horses, donkeys, ... and on shoulders accross creeks, dales and bushes. The pipage and other few components could be easily and quickly produced en masse by simple, cheap factories in BG. The shells too. Such way on the same cost BG could have not a thousand guns , but dozens if not hundreds of thousands of artilery units. The artilery-infantry ratio would be 100+ guns per 1000 soldiers instead of 4 guns per 1000 soldiers as in OTL.

Such guns:




2.3. Navy

In OTL 6 pieces of small mine deposition small ships, bought AGAIN from Schneider.

In TTL - 1000 units of wooden torpedo boats. 50 feet each. 30-50 knots speed. BG production. Waterline on ~1m so they to be able to sneak in many rivers. Essentially nothing more than 17th century style Cossack Chaikas, furnished with compact power plant ( small powerfull steam engines 1000 francs each? ). Carrying 4-5 people crew, everyone armed with 100-bullet Mondragons. Carrying 4 torpedoes each ( BG production, too ) + a dozen recoilless guns. Cheap and easy for production, fast, light, with range of several hundred naval miles. When necessary to appear in a sea different from the Black sea - they can be easily shipped by train, carts, or ported accross land with human and animal force. Except as FAC ( Fast Attacking Crafts ) they have double usage as landing vessels moving 40-50 infantry people.

Such boats:

300px-Turbinia_At_Speed.jpg


1000-ish boats wouldn't cost more than 5 mln. francs.

2.4. Aviation

In OTL - 26 or 29 Berilio aircrafts and 1-2 tied baloons.

In TTL - 1000-2000 units of BG own production of Berilio design, with the more powerfull 100HP engines and heavier capacity and cruising speed of 100-ish km/h. According to historical invoices from WW1 one airplane is delivered on between $5000 and 8000 USD, the engines are separately invoiced on $700-800 USD. In OTL 1910 some Russian offers to BG for 250 000 levs ( francs ) to be established an workshop for airplanes production and pilots school. The interest of the BG military towards aviation exists from several years earlier. To be built 1000-2000 airplanes does not need more technology and know-how than making of 1000 horse driven phaitons. Only the engines or their components has to be imported, unless IF with moving the Swiss SIG in BG, the BGs do not buy also means of production of engines. The Chataldja bomb ( the grandmother of all free-fall boms used in WW1 and WW2 and nowadays ) is created by BG pilot and aviation constructor. The TTL BG "Berilio's" can carry 5-6 such. 4 flights a day on distance of 100km return = delivery of 0.5 tonnes explossive to the target by each airplane. The original used in the OTL Balkan war against Adrianople by the BG OTL forces Chataldja bomb has 20kg explosive and opens 2m deep and 4-5m wide "wound" in the ground.

The cost for having 1000+ airplanes together with the capital cost for the engine factory and airplane workshops would be less then 10 000 000 lev.

Such airplanes:

bleriot_xi_thulin_2.jpg


3. Demography - BG is not small at all in 1912. It has population twice bigger tham the ones of Greece or Serbia, and the total number of ethnic Bulgarians on the Balkans exceeds 7 mln. people. ( Roughly slightly over the half of the total Balkans population ). Heavily armed blitzkrieg is also a solution if fighting with multiple enemies is tight sequence - von Schliffen plan against France and Russia is the finest example. It is solution in demographic-ecionomical plan. Blitzkrieg allows tha attacker to limit the losses to the immediate ones, and to be avoided the capitalization of the expenses in wealth and human lives for the military effort. The long war destroys the weak. Vice versa the blitzkrieg knocks down giants. ( OTL example Japan vs. Russia in OTL 1904-1905. )

4. Finance and economy:

According to historical data we know that the volume of industrial production of BG for OTL 1912 is 120 000 000 levs ( i.e. swiss francs, Latin Monetary Union ). The GDP must've been between 1 and 2 billion levs p.a. The historical budgets of the Principality / Tsardom grow OTL steadily from 120-ish to 300-ish million levs in the period 1900-1911. In OTL in the period 1908-1912 BG spends steadily about 1/4th of its budget for military purposes - mainly import of armament. On cumulative estimations the monetary cost of the Balkan wars for Bulgaria is between 1.3 and 2 billion levs, and the analysis shows that this was bearable cost ( under 50% of GDP p.a. ), given the fact that indeed the Balkan wars OTL no matter how bitter for BG have not stumble its economical progress and the WW1 failure rocks and shocks significantly the BG economy. In 1915 OTL BG enters quite "fresh" the WW1. WW1 also proves that Romania and Serbia are conquerable even after the BG loss in the Second Balkan War and even with OTL army in matter of weeks.

SO, if ITTL 1900-1912 BG was spending the same way as in OTL a quarter of the national budget for build-up of a Supreme Armed Forces ( 1000 airplanes, 1000 FAC boats, 50 000 artilery guns, 500 000 machine guns - snipers, 750 000 total armed staff of which 500 000 active army ... ), the total sum of military expenses would be more or less the same as in OTL:

1900 - 30 000 000
1901 - 35 000 000
1902 - 37 000 000
1903 - 40 000 000
1904 - 45 000 000
1905 - 45 000 000
1906 - 50 000 000
1907 - 55 000 000
1908 - 60 000 000
1909 - 70 000 000
1910 - 80 000 000
1911 - 80 000 000
1912 - 90 000 000
------------
Totally : > 650 000 000 ( direct state military expenses ).

I repeat myself again , but if wars are short - 2-3 months per campaign, the cost of the army and the military effort as a whole would be times and times lower, which gives the paradoxal result that the Supreme Army TL would cost BG under 1 bln. lev, several times less than the OTL one.

Capital costs for establishment of BG own military-industrial base + the production of the cited above numbers and type of armaments would consume about 1/3rd of the cited above ( same as in OTL! ) military budget.

The rest 2/3rds or 400+ mln. SHALL be enough for:

- several billion bullets 0.303 Mauser.
- several hundred torpedoes
- fuel and other consumables for the boats and aircrafts
- several million shells for the recoilless guns
- several hundred thousands of free-fall aviation bombs
- food, clothes, shoes, logistics
- spare parts ...
and EVERYTHING.

The 600-700 mln. lev poured into the establishment of the military-industrial complex of BG will positivelly capitalize and will double effectivelly the nations GDP.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

Now:

WHAT such Supreme War machine can do to the neighbours?

Hint from OTL WW1: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_Campaign_(World_War_I)#Casualties
 

BlondieBC

Banned
This is not Bulgarwank.

It is a question of what-if order given the following premises:

Bulgaria spends the same amount or less of money which it spent OTL until the First Balkan War. NO technological ASB things. Everything is kept realistic in economical, technological, finansial, demographic aspect.


1. Army

In OTL - 639 567, from which Acting Army of 366 000 + 14 670 macedono-odrin militia ( with intelligence-diversion functions ). ( During WW1 the BG armed forces had 885 175 people! )... we know the exact data about the Three armies, the cavalry, the navy, aviation and militia in OTL.

In TTL - 50 000 guns?
Such guns:


2.3. Navy

In OTL 6 pieces of small mine deposition small ships, bought AGAIN from Schneider.

In TTL - 1000 units of wooden torpedo boats. 5

2.4. Aviation

In OTL - 26 or 29 Berilio aircrafts and 1-2 tied baloons.

In TTL - 1000-2000 units of BG own production of Berilio design
Such airplanes:

Boy, this looks like a wank. How on earth are you getting all this money? Are you assuming it takes the money spent on the 1st and 2nd Balkan wars and this is the peace time budget? You don't get war time budgets in peace time. The Germans spent 600 million marks fighting a 100k man tribe in Africa. You can't assume if the Kaiser avoids the war that he can just order 10-20 more dreadnoughts. It is not how budgets work.

As to what it can do, Bulgaria is a second rate power, so it can do nothing without the approval of at least a few Great Powers. As to WW1, the Serbs collapsed when OTL army was attacked by Bulgaria, so likely any month Bulgaria choose to join, the Serbs still fall fast. The Serbs did not have enough men to defend against the AH and Bulgarians without Greek help, which is not coming. So to your question of what happens if this army exists. Well, the Bulgarians are planning to use it, so they probably call a mobilization the first week of August 1914, and are mobilized by September. Serbia falls by end of October. The Bulgarians have enough to crush the Serbs and leave sizeable defensive forces against he Ottomans. Now for other issues.

1) The number of bullets seems way to high. How many did the say French or Germans have per soldier? I doubt you go above this number.

2) 50K artillery pieces, way, way to high. How big is the crew per gun?

3) 1000 torpedo boats is way, way to high. Germany had 144. Bulgaria probably would have majority of torpedo tubes mounted on all classes of ships in all navies.

4) Again on airplanes, way way to high. Probably majority of all airplanes in all armies of the world. How many men per plane counting ground crews?
 
A very intersting proposal, and certainly, if it's at all feasible, this upsized Bulgarian military certainly would become a dominant regional power probably. However, there is one thing I think needs to be pointed out:

The 600-700 mln. lev poured into the establishment of the military-industrial complex of BG will positivelly capitalize and will double effectivelly the nations GDP.

With so much money being devoted into the war effort, does this not create a few isues?

First: isn't Bulgaria going down the same road of Nazi Germany's "War Or Bust" economic strategy essentially, wherein the nation will utterly collapse into economic ruin due to the over-militarisation of the state's economy, UNLESS there's a general or regional war with which further government contracts can feed the ever-increasing and insatiable beast of this military-industrial complex? After a certain point, even if the Government doesn't want a war, it will be necessary in order to sustain the economy...and then what?

Second: Even if that isn't so, wouldn't the 12-year build-up (roughly) of the military not shock Bulgaria's neighbours into an equal hyper-militarisation, and thus essentially negate any of the advantages that Bulgaria might get through its massive modernisation campaign and modest increase in military size? Bulgaria's new military is almost entirely geared now to an offensive war, and her neighbours won't allow her to force one. This new Balkan War you'll have will be a coalition likely against Bulgaria, not some Bulgarian offensive war to take an Aegean port and unify the ethnic Bulgarians of the region under one state in the process.

Third: Maybe my understanding of things is a little off, but wasn't the notion of aerial bombing only realised really in 1911/12 during the war in Libya between Italy and the Ottomans? If so, would a Bulgaria whose air force is little more than (in OTL) a couple dozen monoplane scout aircraft really be interested in such a massive investment in such a nascent technology, one which took at least another 3-4 years, even for the Great Powers who truly have the financial resources and military incentive, to really take off (no pun intended)?

Fourth: Regarding the Mondragon - I can easily imagine it being taken up, but in a simplified version, perhaps with the gas-operated cycling removed to simplify production. These guns, from what I've read were also terribly unreliable, at least initially, in actual combat conditions, prone to jamming and stoppages due to the delicate nature of that gas system, especially early on. So why go with it, and not some locally-licensed Mauser or the like? As appealing as having a native arms manufacturer moving over to Bulgaria in the face of possible bankruptcy may be, when SIG nearly collapses because of Mexico's civil war and inability to pay for the orders it placed...I can't imagine them simply moving to Bulgaria of all places. There's just no incentive there really, given that the company might very well be nationalised into some sort of government arsenal because it's pretty much the only supplier of the (new) service rifle for the nation. They'd never physically move, maybe the ownership of SIG would change or something...but it's just beyond me why they'd transit half the continent almost simply because a third-rate or fourth-rate (OTL at least) country is inviting them with promises of money.
 
Boy, this looks like a wank. How on earth are you getting all this money? Are you assuming it takes the money spent on the 1st and 2nd Balkan wars and this is the peace time budget? You don't get war time budgets in peace time. The Germans spent 600 million marks fighting a 100k man tribe in Africa. You can't assume if the Kaiser avoids the war that he can just order 10-20 more dreadnoughts. It is not how budgets work.

Budget: The OTL estimates show that less than 1/3rd of the Balkan wars expenses have been done in the peacetime 1900-1912. So to say planned expenses. The other 2/3rds I assume evaporated during the military efforts.
But the OTL statistic shows that this was totaly bearable expenditure. Something which this time OTL Bulgaria definitelly can afford. The WW1 was what pushed Bulgaria in downward course for entire century.

I keep on defending the notion that such Super-army is technologically, demographically, financially, economically, ... feasible.

As to what it can do, Bulgaria is a second rate power, so it can do nothing without the approval of at least a few Great Powers.

I agree on this, but you know, the 2nd rate power's "credit rating" before the 1st rate powers, its so to say value as a friend or foe is dictated by the actually expressed "power-traits" of the 2nd rate one. OTL Bulgaria have already won some points before the Great powers with its self-unification of 1886 , and this culminated in the Declaration of Independence of 1908.

As to WW1, the Serbs collapsed when OTL army was attacked by Bulgaria, so likely any month Bulgaria choose to join, the Serbs still fall fast. The Serbs did not have enough men to defend against the AH and Bulgarians without Greek help, which is not coming. So to your question of what happens if this army exists. Well, the Bulgarians are planning to use it, so they probably call a mobilization the first week of August 1914, and are mobilized by September. Serbia falls by end of October. The Bulgarians have enough to crush the Serbs and leave sizeable defensive forces against he Ottomans. Now for other issues.

Thank you first for the August 1914 thing. Yes with super-army there are two ways of the things to evolve:
1. The TTL Balkan war BG-vs.-all directly triggers WW1 in 1912-1913.
2. TTL Super-army-ed BG waits until WW1 to erupt which is highly improbable, because WW1 was aticipated and even desired, but its shear size and consequences understated by all parties. It was a "black swan".
SO, the probability for p.1. is higher. Towards it also drag event-flows from OTL. The Balkan Union of Greece-Monenegro-Serbia-Bulgaria - the Anti-Ottoman League was in process of forming nevertheless OTL.

I think the most plausible scenario would be: BG immitates active participation in the Balkan League, but realizes that its natural enemy are rather its non-Ottoman neighbours and BG uses its participation in the Balkan League to intelligence, lobby, deceive the "allies".

The analysis of the BG political and military elite leads them into only one solution, which is "No neighbours, no problem".

1) The number of bullets seems way to high. How many did the say French or Germans have per soldier? I doubt you go above this number.

I do not know, but from the other hand big powerful counries do have very serious other committments and completely different expenditures structure. In OTL and TTL BG from the beginning of XXth century, the productivity is matter of how much physically they can produce given they buy the right machines. The metals are not problem -- BG is sizeable producer of copper, led, etc. even now in OTL.

2) 50K artillery pieces, way, way to high. How big is the crew per gun?

One fireteam ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fireteam ) or half or third of a ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squad ) or thus 2-3 artilery guns per EACH squad. ( regarding from the specs of say XM-29 150mm recoiless projector -- http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/archive/nucweapons/davyc ).
Every fireteam or squad member is also heavy-machine-gun unit on his own. And sniper.


With Recoilless artilery and Automatic rifles you get even higher units and fire-wall mobility than with motorized infantry later OTL / TTL.

2465712767_e76d2d2e75.jpg



3) 1000 torpedo boats is way, way to high. Germany had 144. Bulgaria probably would have majority of torpedo tubes mounted on all classes of ships in all navies.

Do not take it as "Torpedo Boats" but as torpedo boats , lower case. Cheap mass produced wooden hulls, cheap mass produced engines - some very robust and simple either steam or diesel ones ... More of a use-and-throw boats. In OTL Balkan war one ( real ) torpedo boat managed to harm seriously the Ottoman gun-ship Hamidiye. Imagine dozens of such "kamikazing" with 4 torpedoes each, with 4-6 recoilless guns and 4-6 heavy machine guns ... even the mightiest ships from any Great power armada. The concept fight the elite and expensive with cheap and numerous ALWAYS works.

4) Again on airplanes, way way to high. Probably majority of all airplanes in all armies of the world. How many men per plane counting ground crews?

OTL WW1 the evolved aviation was from both sides. Using aviation against an enemy without ANY airstrike or anti-aircraft means is very very deadly. The strategical advantage would last only few years and will be only against the weak, not the Powers, but so what?

Also an aircraft from the down of aviation is very cheap and flimsy thing. It is made from wood, cloth, piano strings ... a nation which can make carts and wine barrels can easily produce aircrafts and such torpedo boats ... if it can obtain or better make the engines...
 
Geredis,

A very intersting proposal, and certainly, if it's at all feasible, this upsized Bulgarian military certainly would become a dominant regional power probably. However, there is one thing I think needs to be pointed out:

With so much money being devoted into the war effort, does this not create a few isues?

First: isn't Bulgaria going down the same road of Nazi Germany's "War Or Bust" economic strategy essentially, wherein the nation will utterly collapse into economic ruin due to the over-militarisation of the state's economy, UNLESS there's a general or regional war with which further government contracts can feed the ever-increasing and insatiable beast of this military-industrial complex? After a certain point, even if the Government doesn't want a war, it will be necessary in order to sustain the economy...and then what?

Wellll, No. OTL 1900-1912 BG is on path of industrialization, hence the over-development would simply accelerate this trend. All industry developed and all capital investments are "double use". An engines factory can be used not only for making aircraft ot boat engines. A recoilless guns plant is usefull tool in pipe making. In fact such accelerated industrialization would be covered by the internal market only...

I rather envision, BG to evolve the Super-army as an Ultimate Weapon against the neighbours, and after it achieves its goal - to physically exterminate the neighbours on the Balkans to use the result for diplomatic and by other means solidification of the achievements.

Second: Even if that isn't so, wouldn't the 12-year build-up (roughly) of the military not shock Bulgaria's neighbours into an equal hyper-militarisation, and thus essentially negate any of the advantages that Bulgaria might get through its massive modernisation campaign and modest increase in military size? Bulgaria's new military is almost entirely geared now to an offensive war, and her neighbours won't allow her to force one. This new Balkan War you'll have will be a coalition likely against Bulgaria, not some Bulgarian offensive war to take an Aegean port and unify the ethnic Bulgarians of the region under one state in the process.

I think the military build up could be hidden by the inertia of thinking. Matter of secrecy and deceivement.

Third: Maybe my understanding of things is a little off, but wasn't the notion of aerial bombing only realised really in 1911/12 during the war in Libya between Italy and the Ottomans? If so, would a Bulgaria whose air force is little more than (in OTL) a couple dozen monoplane scout aircraft really be interested in such a massive investment in such a nascent technology, one which took at least another 3-4 years, even for the Great Powers who truly have the financial resources and military incentive, to really take off (no pun intended)?

Bulgaria is one of the bombing aviation pioneers in OTL world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_Air_Force#First_and_Second_Balkan_Wars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_bomb#Early_bombs

BGs first in the world designed special bombs for aircraft bombing. The Italians before them were throwing grenades by hand.

"Chataldja" bomb design was bought by the Germans and had global impact in OTL WW1.

This means that Bulgarians appreciated the role of aviation pretty pretty early in OTL.

And as I said in the previous post -- it is NOT massive investment. 2000 engines would cost less than 2 000 000 USD. The rest of the construction is childish kiting.

Fourth: Regarding the Mondragon - I can easily imagine it being taken up, but in a simplified version, perhaps with the gas-operated cycling removed to simplify production. These guns, from what I've read were also terribly unreliable, at least initially, in actual combat conditions, prone to jamming and stoppages due to the delicate nature of that gas system, especially early on. So why go with it, and not some locally-licensed Mauser or the like? As appealing as having a native arms manufacturer moving over to Bulgaria in the face of possible bankruptcy may be, when SIG nearly collapses because of Mexico's civil war and inability to pay for the orders it placed...I can't imagine them simply moving to Bulgaria of all places. There's just no incentive there really, given that the company might very well be nationalised into some sort of government arsenal because it's pretty much the only supplier of the (new) service rifle for the nation. They'd never physically move, maybe the ownership of SIG would change or something...but it's just beyond me why they'd transit half the continent almost simply because a third-rate or fourth-rate (OTL at least) country is inviting them with promises of money.

Of course a nationally supported effort for adoption of automatic rifles as a primary weapon for the infantry ( together with 150-200mm Recoilless Guns ), would lead also to improvements of design. About SIG, we are talking about take-over of a semi-insolvent company. Swiss gvt can intervene with nationalization ( examples of such Swiss gvt practices? ) , but rather they go after the money / market.

===
 
Top