1911 The First World War

Chapter One: the Russian Revolution and the Road to War

When revolution broke out in Russia, no one was initially concerned. The 19th Century had been full of various rebellions, and except for the kingdom of France, all the major powers had overcome them.

Even as the unrest stretched into 1908, concern was focused on the Balkans as Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria took advantage of weakness in the Ottoman and Russian Empires to annex Bosnia and Herzegovina and declare independence respectively.

But by the end of 1908, the Tsar and his family had fled to Britain, and Russia was split with a Bolshevik Soviet ruling Moscow and the East, while a fragile coalition of Royalists and Republicans centered in St. Petersburg held the West.

1911 saw war between Italy and the Ottoman Empire, a second crisis in Morocco, and insurrection in Poland and Ukraine. By then, there was grave concen in Austria-Hungary, which didn't want the unrest to spread to their own Polish and Ukranian populations. The Austrians closed their North Eastern border, sent the army into Galicia, and offered to host a conference in Vienna to deal with the declining international situation.

Most of the major powers agreed, including the Ottomans, who could have coined the term 'frenemy' in their relationship with the Austrians, and Germany and Italy, who both planned to use conference to force concessions. But Russia was in no position to send a single delegation to Vienna, and a forming League of Balkan states made it known they were in favor of war with the Ottoman Empire. And it turned out that the conference never took place anyway.

On 11 October 1911, Poland declared independence. Although the minority populations in Germany and Austria-Hungary weren't mentioned, the declaration spurred riots throughout Galicia. Neither Soviet Russia, nor the declining 'White' Russian government could do anything to restore order in Poland, which was believed needed in order to deal with Galicia. The Austrian government issued the Krakow proclamation that first recognized, and then immediately declared war on Poland.

France, still an ally of White Russia which nominally controlled Poland, issued an ultimatum to Austria to stand down from the Russian border. But Germany, which had its own Polish minority population, issued a full mobilization in support of Austria-Hungary. Within a few days, Germany had declared war on both France and Poland (Russia was notable in its exclusion), and Austria was sending troops across the border.
 
Chapter Two: Stalemate

The beginning of what started off as the Polish War was a disappointment to all involved. Britain was reluctantly brought in when Germany violated Belgium's neutrality, Belgium was quickly overrun, and though Germany took a good chunk of France at first, the Belgians held on long enough for the French to dig in and prevent a quick knockout.

On the Eastern Front, Poland was conquered in 8 weeks, which was extremely bad for the Austrian army too. The Imperial Court was of the opinion that was 7 weeks longer than it should take a Great Power to defeat a country that hadn't had an army since the 1700s. The Austrian heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand went about making some plans for a course correction while Austria considered its options.

To the South, the Ottoman Empire had been driven out of Europe, and there were some who thought the Ottomans needed to be bailed out before a too powerful Balkan state could menace Austria. But in the end, it seemed wisest to break the deadlock in France.

Paris fell within a week, and France surrendered. Britain however, did not give up, even after Germany announced it was leaving Belgium and restoring her to her prewar status, save an agreement to allow German troops to cross through to France (who would be the ones paying for this 'restoration').

Britain held firm, and their blockade held firm. The Central Powers took nothing but an Austrian protectorate of Poland and a slightly altered border with France. All while having no imports and no way to defend Germany's colonies.

This was when Germany looked South. Activating a secret clause in the French peace treaty where reparations could be paid in military action, Germany approached the Ottomans with a shocking offer. Germany, Austria, and France would deal with Italy and the Balkan League. And in exchange, the Ottoman Empire would allow German and Austrian troops to cross Ottoman territory to attack the one part of the British Empire still within reach: Egypt.
 
Nice idea, though I expect Britain would have at least made known what it DID want from the war, by this point - the blockade has to be leaky at some points, aiming as it does at all of Europe from the Pyrenees to the Baltic, so 'just keep up the blockade' is very annoying to the Germans, but not a war winner.

Having the Germans aim to force a victory sounds logical, but what is Britain doing to force its own victory?
 
Nice idea, though I expect Britain would have at least made known what it DID want from the war, by this point - the blockade has to be leaky at some points, aiming as it does at all of Europe from the Pyrenees to the Baltic, so 'just keep up the blockade' is very annoying to the Germans, but not a war winner.

Having the Germans aim to force a victory sounds logical, but what is Britain doing to force its own victory?

Let them come? The infrastructure to the middle east supported ~300,000 Ottoman troops OTL after more of the Rail line was finished. Given the Germans required a bigger logistical tail than the Turks, say that would be about one german army. With their superior logistics the British had ~million men in the middle east once they geared up. 3 or 4 to one only goes one way. Since the Germans are determined how many armies will they lose before they give up? 3, 4? Maybe the British can goad them into sending more until they run out of men.
 
Let them come? The infrastructure to the middle east supported ~300,000 Ottoman troops OTL after more of the Rail line was finished. Given the Germans required a bigger logistical tail than the Turks, say that would be about one german army. With their superior logistics the British had ~million men in the middle east once they geared up. 3 or 4 to one only goes one way. Since the Germans are determined how many armies will they lose before they give up? 3, 4? Maybe the British can goad them into sending more until they run out of men.
But that's not a war-winning strategy, it's a draw-securing strategy. Which, in my opinion, should only work if the British at the same time make clear what they DO want out of the draw.

Germany is not some cackling maniac that must have a victory, it's a great power with interests - so the easiest way to secure a draw is to make clear what draw is acceptable to Britain.
 
Thanks for all the replies. I honestly never considered how the Germans would take the Belgian forts. After giving it some thought, I think the most probable explanation is that the early communist revolution spurred concern and an arms build-up in Germany. As far as Britain goes, I've added more of that to this chapter.

Chapter Three: The British Position

By the time France invaded Italy, a country it had had a hand in creating, British public opinion was that continental Europe had lost its collective minds.

Britain was still technically at war with Austria and Germany. What they wanted was a return to the Splendid Isolation of the previous century, but no one had any idea how to do that. Some wags jokingly hoped Germany, France, and Austria were wiped out in the Turkish desert, and they could start Europe over from scratch.

The British plan was to form a second coalition, the way it had against Napoleon. But the Austrian and German armies cooled their heels in Budapest during the peace talks with France, allowing the Emperor to cancel its compromise with Hungary. And then Romania signed on to attack Bulgaria. Currently, there was no one on the continent strong enough to ally against the Great Powers rampaging across Europe

France and Austria were being very careful during their invasion of Italy to neutralize Italian forces with a minimum of civilian damage, indicating that they weren't planning on leaving after they'd forced Italy out of the Balkans. Britain put out some feelers to Italy, declared Egypt an official protectorate after the Ottomans agreed to the German proposal, and reinforced the Egyptian frontier.

And hoped that by the time Europe sued for peace, Britain could put it back together.
 
Chapter Four: Army and Navy

Infrastructure in the Middle East was not equipped to handle a modern war, and given reluctance from Austria and Romania about spreading their forces too thin, the forces arriving in Palestine to face off against British Egypt were almost completely Prussian.

What forces they had were clearly insufficient to invade Egypt. A plan was developed to transport and equip the army in Palestine by sea, but further problems presented themselves. France reminded her allies that the treaty they signed made military assistance voluntary, and hadn't renounced France's alliance with Britain. Attacking Italy was one thing, but the French Navy would not assist in equipping the Egyptian invasion.

Without French assistance, the Austrian and Ottoman fleets would be unable to get past the British Mediterranean fleet to establish an invasion force that could take Egypt. The German High Seas Fleet, backed by the German Emperor, refused to run the gauntlet past the British Home Fleet, Gibraltar, and Malta, citing far too high risks. The invasion of Egypt was permanently postponed.

The French army had set up a stable front line in Northern Italy, but although it looked like they were now quiet, the French were keeping very busy diplomatically. They assisted the White Russian territories of Finland, Ukraine, and the Baltic republics in forming a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union and Germany. They contacted the Poles and mediated an alliance with the White Russians. And they made plans to launch a new invasion of Germany.

And then France approached Austria with an astonishing ultimatum: break with Germany and join them in breaking the war's deadlock. Or face the horrors of a two front war.
 
Chapter Five: the French Coalition

The Austrians surrendered in April 1915, quickly enough that the Germans were suspicious. But as intelligence came in, it became clear that the Germans had pushed their main ally until they simply ran out of armies.

The former White Russian republics, deemed the Little Entente, had crossed over into Poland and East Prussia at the beginning of April, in numbers the Austrian occupation force couldn't handle. And when uprisings spread to Budapest, Austria pulled out of Poland and Galicia altogether to deal with them. Luckily, France's offer was still open.

The ceasefire allowed Austria to keep her conquests in Northern Italy in exchange for giving up Galicia to an independent Poland. But France's primary goal was sealing the Austrian border so the bulk of the German army was trapped several hundred miles away from the invading French army. Austria had already withdrawn her Balkan forces to the border to protect it.

France had easily overcome the troops protecting Alsace-Lorraine and was pushing deep into Southern Germany, whose states threatened to withdraw from the Empire altogether. It seemed incomprehensible to the German High Command that the war could end like this. They ordered their forces across still occupied Serbia to smash through the Austrian line at Belgrade.

Archduke Franz Ferdinand raced south to personally take command of the force he'd upgraded. He sent a note to the Emperor saying that he hoped that they'd learned from their experiences in Poland and they'd be able to make a good showing against the Prussians.
 
Thanks for all the replies. I honestly never considered how the Germans would take the Belgian forts. After giving it some thought, I think the most probable explanation is that the early communist revolution spurred concern and an arms build-up in Germany. As far as Britain goes, I've added more of that to this chapter.
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The Germans started work on the seige howitzers in 1905 in response to the Russo-Japanese War. And they were only ready in June 1914, all two of them. If you want them in 1911, you need the Germans to start work around 1901-02. And you need a reason for them to build them. Historically it was the use of a dismounted Japanese 12" naval gun in the seige of Port Arthur. You need one M-F of seige with improvised super heavy artillery used. May I suggest St Petersburg with a dismounted gun from a Baltic Fleet battleship. You'd need the battleship disabled first so they'd think of taking the gun off. Not sure how to swing that one.
 
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BooNZ

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The Germans started work on the seige howitzers in 1905 in response to the Russo-Japanese War. And they were only ready in June 1914, all two of them. If you want them in 1911, you need the Germans to start work around 1901-02. And you need a reason for them to build them. Historically it was the use of a dismounted Japanese 12" naval gun in the seige of Port Arthur. You need one M-F of seige with improvised super heavy artillery used. May I suggest St Petersburg with a dismounted gun from a Baltic Fleet battleship. You'd need the battleship disabled first so they'd think of taking the gun off. Not sure how to swing that one.

The Arming of Europe by David G. Herrmann indicated the Germans already had 6x 305mm siege mortars in 1905, but I have misplaced my hard copy. I also understand contrary to expectations, many of Belgium fortifications were reduced by massed German heavy artillery (<151mm) - not only siege artillery. The impact of the super heavy artillery was subsequently overstated.

Regarding the siege of Port Arthur, the Japanese efforts were impaired by the loss of Hitachi Maru in Feb-1904 with 18 Krupp 11-inch (280 mm) siege howitzers. This suggests the Germans were already familiar with the concept and construction of super heavy siege artillery.
 
Chapter Six: the Battle of the Line

The Prussian army was far from home and dependant on the Ottomans for its supply lines. But it was still far stronger than the Austrian force holding Belgrade. The Austrian and French Mediterranean fleets engaged the Ottoman fleet in the hopes of disrupting the Prussian supply chain. But there was still little to do except hope that the line would hold until the French and Polish armies could force a German surrender.

The seige of Belgrade was the most brutal of the war. The Prussian army pushed the Austrians back block by block. The Austrians earned some goodwill with the Serbs by evacuating the civilians, but proceeded to lose that by detonating every building as they pulled out.

The Austrians lost two thirds of their forces as they were driven to the Danube. The official Austrian line emphasized combat losses, but Serbian sources state that disease cost several thousand lives over the course of the 8 week standoff. Casualties included the heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who took a stray bullet 2 weeks in and succumbed to infection shortly before the decision was made to withdraw from Belgrade.

The Austrians held the Danube river for the entirety of the seige, and they were able to evacuate Belgrade while the Austrians shelled the Prussians for cover. The Austrian army regrouped with reinforcements from Hungary for a final battle against the Prussians. The aged Austrian Emperor travelled to the site of the coming battle to review his troops before being taken back to Budapest to await the outcome.

But there was to be no battle. Before the Prussian army reached the Austrians, word reached them that the war was over. Polish forces had taken Berlin and the Kaiser had abdicated. Though Austrian tradition counted one further casualty. That night the Austrian Emperor, exhausted by the stress of war, died in his bed.
 
Chapter Seven: an Imperfect Peace

The Peace Conference ended up being held in Paris in September of 1915. This did not stop the Austrians from parading its battered soldiers through the streets as a visible reminder of their sacrifices. To the annoyance of the French and Polish leadership, it seemed as though after starting the war, brutally suppressing the Hungarians, and then switching sides, Austria was now being portrayed in the media as a plucky hero that drew the line to save civilization. Even after Austria moved troops into Silesia to 'help Poland maintain order' and then refused to leave.

France actually had little to complain about. It got to keep its conquests in Northern Italy and got Alsace-Lorraine back. It was allied with all the major powers, and got to reengineer the German Empire the way it wanted it.

By the time of the conference, there really was no German Empire. The Kaiser had been pressured to abdicate, but the kings of Bavaria, Saxony, and Wurttemberg had withdrawn from the Empire anyway. The Great Powers had decided however, that a smaller, less Prussian Germany was more desirable than a return to the disorganized states of the old German Confederation. No matter what its constituent states wanted.

Prussia was stripped down to its origins in East Prussia as a type of retirement community for the Hohenzollerns. Poland added Posen and West Prussia to its territory from Russia, and Galicia in Austria, which held onto Silesia in addition to its conquests in Northern Italy.

Prussian territory in Germany itself was divided between a restored Kingdom of Hannover, several smaller states, and the new Kingdom of Brandenburg, which was to be given to whomever the kingdoms decided would be German Emperor. In the hope of gaining British favour for a country isolated from a ring of alliances, the crown was given to the grandson of Queen Mary of the UK's favorite aunt, the Grand Duke of Mecklenburg-Strelitz, who reigned as Frederick II.

The big winner was the Ottoman Empire. It had been decided by the Great Powers that the conflicts of the previous century had been the result of Prussian avarice and avarice directed against Turkey. The clock was turned back to 1908 (except for Austria and Bosnia-Herzegovina of course), and Bulgaria's independence was cancelled.

The Bulgarian Tsar, now again a prince, recieved a surprising gift though. The Great Powers had decided that the Ottoman Empire needed a strong bulwark against being nibbled to death. And so the Principality of Bulgaria was given administration of European Turkey for as long as it remained a loyal Ottoman client state. Bulgaria happily accepted the agreement.

Britain was happy with its peace treaty, which had somehow balanced power in Europe the way it wanted. But there was still concern about the Soviets in the East. And the Balkan states that remained independent were massively frustrated by the way they'd been trod on. They weren't about to forget it.
 
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