Probably not. Pressure for reform had been building up for decades and was constantly being suppressed. The tension is there, but it's been there for a long time. You need a spark to set it off, some sort of dramatic event. Take away a lost war and things likely continue on as they have been. There is no Duma and you don't even get what little social and military reform did occur. Political parties remain underground and the Czar and ruling class remain blithely unaware of the pending danger.
When 1914 comes the Russians are absolutely confident they will crush the Germans and when they don't it will come as a shattering surprise. Unless the Czar actually has enough sense to make a separate peace with Germany (doubtful) when the breaking point comes some time in 1917 I expect a multi-sided civil war through out Russia. Not Red versus White but Finnish, Pole, Ukrainian, Georgian, Russian, Czarist, Anarchist, Republican, Socialist all fighting each other for their own goals.