1905 Austro-Hungarian War

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

In my research for the 'Ausgang on the Ausgleich' thread I came across this historical almost-war between Austria and Hungary. Hungary's parliament was demanding control of the Hungarian army, being resisted by Vienna and pushing the matter to the wire. The issue was eventually solved with Franz Josef threatening to widen the Hungarian suffrage to a universal one (thus removing the Magyar majority) and the Hungarian parliament backing down. But so tense did things get that Vienna had already issued war orders to corps commanders, ready to take on and take out the Hungarians. So - there's the what if...?

Grey Wolf
 

David S Poepoe

Banned
I think Chief of Staff Conrad was advocating such a move as early as 1902 or so. With Italy involved in Libya and Russia involved in the Far East, 1905 would be the perfect year to put those pesky Magyars into place once and for all. I would give the Magyars a few weeks at most before all opposition is moped up by the Imperial and Royal Army. The Army will figure out if it needs to carry out any reforms from how it finally mobilized and fought, so things will probably be very different in 1914.

The ungainly arrangement of the two parliaments will finally be done away with and the Hungarian internal tarrifs will be dropped also. The Empire's finances will be in a better state. All around I think it would have been a short and successful preemptive war.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Very interesting indeed.

A reformed Austrian army and economy will probbaly mean both Russia and Italy out of the war by 1917 latest, so the German stormtroopers in the spring offensive of 1918 will be backed up by a couple of million battlehardened Austrians - good bye Entente - Pershing or not.

If the 1905 events also means the Slavs being given more room in a federation like state, this could mean the Danube Empire having a long future ahead of it.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Matthew Craw

An Austro-Hungarian civil war in 1905 would most certainly butterfly away the 1914 war entirely, so speculations as to how it would have been effected are a little pointless, moreover, I doubt a 2-3 week campaign against the hungarians would yield many lessons of military value to teh Habsburgs, they'd certainly learn far less than the Russsians did in 1904-05.

What terms would a victorious Franz Josef have imposed? full integ4ration of hungary into the Empire, with universal sufferage would probably have arrived, thouhg perhaps with special arrangements for Croatia.

This would have restored the pre-1867 Hungarian problem and made OTL's problems with discontended minorities seem relatively minor by comparison, would parliamentary government in Vienna even have been possible by 1914?
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Yeah, I was looking at that and thinking 'How do you have a democratic Hungary that hates you ?'

It would seem to me the options would be

1. full democratisation in a unitary structure
2. full democratisation in a duality, where Magyars are no longer the majority in Hungary
3. military occupation of Hungary as per pre 1867
4. a new federal alternative, not very Franz Josef-like

Of these, option two with a bit of three thrown in seem the most likely to me

Grey Wolf
 

Matthew Craw

options one and two certainly make the most sense, and you will need some three mixed in. But why preserve the duality when the Magyars are pretty much totally alienated anyway? would other Hungarian ethnic roups have cared whether they were ruled from Budapest or Vienna?

The magyars might not have been the majority (unbless you count the jews as magyars), but they'd have had huge advantages in wealth, organisation and cohension over the otehr ethnic groups, A military occupation and imperial control over teh administration would be the minimum needed to prevent a reassertion of magyar dominance.

it seems that,unless it leads to Magyar cooperation, the duality creates a lot of administrative problems and doesn't really confer any benefits.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

The problem I see with the unitary option is that you either get rid of the regional assemblies (which would be very unpopular in places like Croatia, for example) or you turn Hungary INTO a region which won't go down well either, to put it mildly...

Grey Wolf
 

David S Poepoe

Banned
Grey Wolf said:
Yeah, I was looking at that and thinking 'How do you have a democratic Hungary that hates you ?'

It would seem to me the options would be

1. full democratisation in a unitary structure
2. full democratisation in a duality, where Magyars are no longer the majority in Hungary
3. military occupation of Hungary as per pre 1867
4. a new federal alternative, not very Franz Josef-like

Of these, option two with a bit of three thrown in seem the most likely to me

Grey Wolf
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Well, I think things are really up in the air and anything is possible. Fritz Fischer wrote a whole book on Germany's Great War aims that were entirely decided upon after years of war and he attributed them to plans the Germans had in July 1914! War and success may change things - and make Franz Josef change his mind on certain issues.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Well, you have to look at what the options mean in effect

IF Franz Josef decided to abolish the Ausgleich completely, he will probably have to split Transylvania off from Hungary proper and give it a regional assembly like in Croatia or Dalmatia. Otherwise he is leaving a difficult problem in place. But doing so, could create problems of their own. If this is done, and a unitary structure is created then Hungary is downgraded to the same status as Dalmatia, Slavonia, Croatia etc. Alternatively ALL the regional assemblies are abolished which seems to me to be creating torubles where they don't exist.

I don't see Franz Josef as radical. I think he would tinker, change things but not unleash a possible storm. Thus, my opinion on the outcome is that either of these occur :-

1. The Dual Monarchy remains, but Hungary has a universal franchise, probably sees Transylvania split off into an autonomous region with its own assembly and possibly sees the union of Croatia and Slavonia, and possibly Dalmatia.

2. The Dual Monarchy becomes a Triple Monarchy with Croatia, Slavonia and Dalmatia united in a third kingdom separate from Hungary. Hungary gets the universal franchise and Transylvania gets an assembly

Grey Wolf
 

Gladi

Bright day
Austria-Hungary-Illyria would be deadly insult to Czechs. And please note Czechs are not nation of Shweiks at this time!! They almost recieved Ausgleich before and when were denied it blocked Austrian Assembly. Bohemia was the most industialized part of Empire at time and Czech nationals were at its prime with people who in OTL later constructed Czechoslovakia. Franz Joseph did not like us very much but I would not say even he would do that. Further, he just mobilized lot of Czechs and Slovaks to put down Magyars, do you believe they would just proclaim vivat kaiser and koenig and support him? You have over six million Czechs; yes even with two million Slovaks less people than already dealt with Magyars, but together they consist of almost a majority. I would not believe that unless ATL is different in havind different Ferenz Jozsko; that he would deadly alienate third of empire.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Gladi said:
Bright day
Austria-Hungary-Illyria would be deadly insult to Czechs. And please note Czechs are not nation of Shweiks at this time!! They almost recieved Ausgleich before and when were denied it blocked Austrian Assembly. Bohemia was the most industialized part of Empire at time and Czech nationals were at its prime with people who in OTL later constructed Czechoslovakia. Franz Joseph did not like us very much but I would not say even he would do that. Further, he just mobilized lot of Czechs and Slovaks to put down Magyars, do you believe they would just proclaim vivat kaiser and koenig and support him? You have over six million Czechs; yes even with two million Slovaks less people than already dealt with Magyars, but together they consist of almost a majority. I would not believe that unless ATL is different in havind different Ferenz Jozsko; that he would deadly alienate third of empire.
Click to expand...

Thank you very much for your input :) I had of course overlooked this aspect. Do you believe, therefore, that a unitary solution is the only one that would work ? I cannot really see a Quadruple Monarchy... But in a unitary empire, how would the Hungarians fit in ?

Grey Wolf
 

Gladi

You are welcome.
Franz Josef the dinosaur he was in OTL would never federalize empire. he did not do so when whole minority regiments were desserting him. His family members mayy try to foce him though. Rule by Austrians solely was impossible, they consisted only of 24% of population ( even with magyars rulers had only 44%). Looking on thing I would say that either France or Britain or Germany support him to create puppet state; or he would falll victim paace coup and "retired" by his family with Franz II being crowned; which would change WWI, maybe even butterfly it away completely.
 

Gladi

Susano said:
You mean Austrian Germans, surely? Austrian they were all, or at least all sans Hungary, heh.
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I mean Austrians, not other citizen of Austria-Hungary Magyars, Slovaks, Czechs or same-language speaking Bavarians, Prussians, Shwabs, Saxons and others.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

I am intrigued as to what Conrad wanted from this, have read that he foresaw conflict against Hungary and Italy at the same time. btw David, Libya doesnt come along till 1911 so Italy is fully free to do what it wants. The question is whether it would do anything, and whether Conrad would pre-empt them or just divert additional forces to the border ? One can assume some degree of German mediation if it came near to a dispute

Grey Wolf
 

Susano

Banned
I mean Austrians, not other citizen of Austria-Hungary Magyars, Slovaks, Czechs or same-language speaking Bavarians, Prussians, Shwabs, Saxons and others.
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Interesting. By that logic, what are you? A Bohemian?
 

Gladi

Susano said:
Interesting. By that logic, what are you? A Bohemian?
Click to expand...

Either Czech from Czechia or Czechoslovak (my father being Czech mother Slovak). OR Czechomoravianslovakgermanpolegypsy choose for yourself ;) . But also a Bohemian as member of nationality, though the real name of nationality is Czech, it almost two milennias since Boii lived here. Even in modern germany certain (Bavarians) groups still differ from average German (Bavarians!) quite distinctly (Bavarians!!). In Austria-Hungary people felt same we were citizens of it but we were Czeshi not Rakushaci- Czechs not Austrians.
 

Valamyr

Banned
Susano said:
Interesting. By that logic, what are you? A Bohemian?
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I think his logic is sound.

Should a 1760's american should be called a Briton?

The peoples of the austrian empire generally felt no special love for their austrian rulers and it makes sense to say that the country was a patchwork of many nations.
 

Susano

Banned
There were differnt ethnicities in Austria-Hungary, but there was no own austrian ethnicity. There never was one, and there is none. So, what else are "Austrians" other than the inhabitants (without any ethnical or national connection) of Austria, or at least the Austrian half of the empire?

For future rference, Prussians, Swabians, Saxonians etc can be summarised as Germans. Oh, and yes, there is a Bavarian seperatist party. I think it scored under 1% last election in Bavaria itself, just for the record. And hell, there is even still a hanoverian secessionist party, but im not even sure it run last time in Lower Saxony, lol.

This cultural diversity is why we have a federal Republic (and why the Kaiserreich, too, was federal, even more so than nowadays Germany). Still its one nation!
 
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