1904-1905 :: Russia keeps Manchuria

Valdemar II

Banned
For OTL see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

ATL: Russia wins that war, or Japan does not start that war. Russia keeps Manchuria. It is later settled, and its places named, by Russians, not Chinese. Its later industrial development benefits Russia, not Japan or China :: how will this affect WWII? Would Japan have attacked China, or anyone, in WWII?

There will likely not be a WWII, because WWI has good chance for not happening, or at least be different. If Russia win, AH are unlikely to annex Bosnia (so no murder of Franz Ferdinand), UK will see Russia as a greater threat, making them unlikely to join the Entern, Germany will be more careful to start a war with Russia.
 
I don't understand what you're saying about Industrialisation, Manchuria is resource rich but terribly placed for Industrialisation.

Why don't the Japanese start a war over it? Whilst Japanese victory in OTL was a massive stroke of luck in the long term the Japanese can outlast the Russians or at least get a ceasefire and rebuild.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Russia keeps Manchuria. It is later settled, and its places named, by Russians, not Chinese. Its later industrial development benefits Russia, not Japan or China :: how will this affect WWII? Would Japan have attacked China, or anyone, in WWII?
By 1904 Manchuria already had a population of nine million people, and more kept coming up from the Chinese home provinces. I don't see any serious attempt to turn the place into a settler colony; exploiting the resources is one thing, but actually clearing the local population or crowding it out with colonists is something entirely different.

Russia managed to hold on to Outer Manchuria because the region was sparsely settled at the time of annexation; Inner Manchuria is another story. Making it a Russian satellite state is plausible, but there is no way it will ever become majority-Russian. Even Kazakhstan never got more than a Russian plurality after decades of Soviet rule, and it isn't nearly as far away.
 
By 1904 Manchuria already had a population of nine million people, and more kept coming up from the Chinese home provinces. I don't see any serious attempt to turn the place into a settler colony; exploiting the resources is one thing, but actually clearing the local population or crowding it out with colonists is something entirely different.

Russia managed to hold on to Outer Manchuria because the region was sparsely settled at the time of annexation; Inner Manchuria is another story. Making it a Russian satellite state is plausible, but there is no way it will ever become majority-Russian. Even Kazakhstan never got more than a Russian plurality after decades of Soviet rule, and it isn't nearly as far away.

That and the logistical nightmare that would be colonisation, how do you support the population food wise without filling Chinese coffers and how do you get so many people from Russia proper along one flimsy rail line that is broken in several places
 
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