1900: Japan does not defeat Russia at the epic Naval battle?

1905: Japan does not defeat Russia at the epic Naval battle?

Some say that what was the beginning of Imperial Japan's agressive foreign policy was them defeating the Imperial Russian Fleet in 1905.

So what if this had not happened? Russia is able to defeat the Japanese Fleet?

What is left of Japanese imperialism?
 
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Some say that what was the beginning of Imperial Japan's agressive foreign policy was them defeating the Imperial Russian Fleet in 1900.

So what if this had not happened? Russia is able to defeat the Japanese Fleet?

What is left of Japanese imperialism?

You mean 1905?

Problem is for Russia is that they lack the infustructure to base a large navy in the Far East, eventualy the Japanese can re-build their fleet and attack again.

EDIT: By 1905 Japan allready held Korea and Taiwan and were competing with Russia for a sphere of influence in Manchuria.
 
Well, it would continue out the saga of "white military supremecy" for awhile...

The Japanese could either call it quits against Russia, or be stubborn as they were and counter attack soon after.
 
Well, it would continue out the saga of "white military supremecy" for awhile...

The Japanese could either call it quits against Russia, or be stubborn as they were and counter attack soon after.

Yeah 1905 really shattered that "Europeans allways beat natives" school of thought
 
The only way the Japanese could have lost that battle is by not turning up. The Japanese had better ships, tactics and officers. The Russians had nothing to offer in that particular battle other than somewhere for the Japanese to put their shells.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
It would further discredit Japan in the international community's eyes, as not only did they launch a surprise attack without declaring war, but they botched it. Now it's not, "Hrmm. Let's see what the Japs can do." It's, "How dare those monkeys think to trifle with European (i.e. white) country!"
 
Well, if they acctually made it to Vladivostok, they could clean up and refit and go at it.

But intercepted at the straits, it was very one-sided and you'd need major luck for the opposite to happen.
 
Yeah 1905 really shattered that "Europeans allways beat natives" school of thought

Technically what was shattered was 'European nation defeats Asian nation', there had always been history of 'Natives beat Europeans'. The imperial chronicles of Britain, France and Italy are littered with their defeats by African tribes.

Also, as pointed out, the Sino-Japanese War is more sign of growing aggressive Japanese expansion than their attack on Port Arthur.
 
Wonder if could influenced Japan not to seek more confrontation with the both Russia and their Neighbours?

Their is no way that the Japanese wouldn't have anthor go, Russia position in the Far East is tenuos.

Russia lacks any major allies in the area, has limited infustructure making any kind of offensive/large scale colonisation (Empire building) difficult (note Russia has only one railroad to the Far East that isn't even complete in sections, which every bullet going to the Far East to kill the Japanese has to travel along) but most importantly the Japanese don't have these constraints against them. A comparison would be the French holdings in the New World, due to Britains overwhelming supremecy in the region (and other factors) they were bound to fall to Britain eventualy.
 
The best shot you really have for this to happen is for the Russian naval command to put into effect the results of their 1903 (or 1902? I don't remember which one...) wargames where they decided that Vladivostok was a much better location to base their warships. The Japanese can't really Port Arthur the First Pacific Squadron very well, and an offensive onto the Primorsky (sp?) peninsula is going to seriously detract from the war in Manchuria.

If this happens, you're going to see

1. Rough going for the Japanese in Manchuria, with their offensive grinding to a halt due to enormous casualties.

2. A drive to Vladivostok that isn't going to be easy. Keeping Togo's fleet on-station nearby is going to be more difficulty logistically...Japan lost one-third of their battleships due to mines, any more is going to seriously curtail their use of their fleet.

3. The First Pacific Squadron not deteriorating in combat effectiveness, especially if Makarov stays alive and in command.

4. The Second Pacific Squadron meeting up with the First; instead of one a tired, demoralized Russian fleet going up against a victorious, rested Japanese fleet you will have a tired but not-demoralized Russian fleet meeting up with another tired and not-demoralized Russian fleet against a tired and possibly demoralized Japanese fleet: 2 > 1.

5. Everyone decides this isn't working (Japanese can't make progress with SLOC threatened, Russia can't put enough troops down TSR), and we have a return to status quo.

6. The European powers conclude that Japan is a moderate-sized power that bit off a little bit more than it could chew, and the diplomatic situation in the Far East returns to its position c. 1900.
 
The best shot you really have for this to happen is for the Russian naval command to put into effect the results of their 1903 (or 1902? I don't remember which one...) wargames where they decided that Vladivostok was a much better location to base their warships. The Japanese can't really Port Arthur the First Pacific Squadron very well, and an offensive onto the Primorsky (sp?) peninsula is going to seriously detract from the war in Manchuria.

If this happens, you're going to see

1. Rough going for the Japanese in Manchuria, with their offensive grinding to a halt due to enormous casualties.

2. A drive to Vladivostok that isn't going to be easy. Keeping Togo's fleet on-station nearby is going to be more difficulty logistically...Japan lost one-third of their battleships due to mines, any more is going to seriously curtail their use of their fleet.

3. The First Pacific Squadron not deteriorating in combat effectiveness, especially if Makarov stays alive and in command.

4. The Second Pacific Squadron meeting up with the First; instead of one a tired, demoralized Russian fleet going up against a victorious, rested Japanese fleet you will have a tired but not-demoralized Russian fleet meeting up with another tired and not-demoralized Russian fleet against a tired and possibly demoralized Japanese fleet: 2 > 1.

5. Everyone decides this isn't working (Japanese can't make progress with SLOC threatened, Russia can't put enough troops down TSR), and we have a return to status quo.

6. The European powers conclude that Japan is a moderate-sized power that bit off a little bit more than it could chew, and the diplomatic situation in the Far East returns to its position c. 1900.

Won't the Japanese just bide their time and attack again later? < Please read post #10
 
Won't the Japanese just bide their time and attack again later? < Please read post #10

Well...no. Not for at least a decade. The costs of the Russo-Japanese War practically bankrupted Japan. Even assuming that Russia adds no modern ships to their combined Pacific fleet after the war, and assuming that Japan loses its two battleships OTL, and that Russia loses, say, four due to various causes, you have a naval situation in the Sea of Japan as follows:

Russian Battleships: 11
Japanese Battleships: 4

The next time when these numbers draw even again, assuming the Russians don't add any more ships (which is unlikely, as funding for the military won't be cut because the 1905 Revolution won't take place, making the Russian government far stronger than in OTL), is probably when the Kawachi class gets completed: in 1912. This is assuming there isn't any more economic trouble in Japan than in OTL due to not having influence in Manchuria.

That's just the naval equation. Japanese forces never defeated Russian soldiers again after 1905. Granted that there aren't a lot of occasions to look at (1939-40 skirmishes, 1945), but the fact of the matter is Japan's ability to defeat Russia in a land war ends with the completion of the TSR in 1916. By this time there are so many butterflies (Russia isn't thought of as being quite so weak, considered by UK to be more of a threat in Far East, no 1905 Revolution) that there's no telling what the diplomatic situation is, and if it's even possible for Japan to attack Russia.

To be honest, I think militarism in Japan is done after a failed offensive war (how many failed offensive wars did it take for Japan to lose its imperialistic tendencies in OTL?), barring the complete collapse of the Russian position in Manchuria due to other circumstances. So we get a industrialized, relatively peaceful Japan forty years earlier than in OTL; one that is probably a good regional ally of the United Kingdom.
 
Their is no way that the Japanese wouldn't have anthor go, Russia position in the Far East is tenuos.


bobbis14,

No it wasn't, and it was growing stronger.

Russia lacks any major allies in the area..

So did Japan.

... has limited infustructure making any kind of offensive/large scale colonisation (Empire building) difficult...

So did Japan.

... (note Russia has only one railroad to the Far East that isn't even complete in sections, which every bullet going to the Far East to kill the Japanese has to travel along)...

Yeah, a single railroad on which Russia managed to move several army corps to the theatre and then supply them. Lots of naval stores were moved too. Russian logistics were not the issue, the issue was Russian leadership, both political and military, instead.

... but most importantly the Japanese don't have these constraints against them.

Yeah, Japan only has to ship everything across the Sea of Japan and Yellow Sea and then use the equally sparse rail net in Korea and the Liaodong peninsular.

A comparison would be the French holdings in the New World, due to Britains overwhelming supremecy in the region (and other factors) they were bound to fall to Britain eventualy.

There are so many differences between those two historical events that your "comparison" is actually nothing of the sort.

Douglas has this exactly right. Japan never again managed to defeat Russia after 1905 on either land or sea and far too many of Japan's "victories" during the war were pyrrhic in nature. Japan's capture of Port Arthur had everything to do with the defeatism of it's commanders and nothing to do with the actual military situation. Even the last great Japanese "victory" at Mukden was more of a Russian withdrawal than anything else.

Japan was stretched to the breaking point by this war and was actually bankrupt when she signed the Treaty of Portsmouth. Witte knew this and delayed the negotiations until Japan was desperate enough to drop it's demands for an indemnity.

If Russia had been less worried with the festering internal troubles that would become the Revolution of 1905, she would have taken the offensive in early 1906 and drove the Japanese back out of Manchuria at the very least.

Even Japan's celebrated naval "advantage" was razor thin, having more to do with leadership and amazing luck than anything else. If Makarov hadn't gone down with his flagship after it hit a mine, if Vitgeft hadn't been killed by a lucky hit on the bridge an hour before dusk during the Battle of the Yellow Sea, or if the Russians had taken their own advice and based out of Vladivostok instead of Port Arthur both the naval and land wars would have been very different.

Even Tsushima is overblown. The battle was nothing but a turkey shoot. Rozhestvensky had been saddled with ships he didn't want along on the expedition, the trip from Europe had left the vessels in poor repair, the ships were carrying extra coal on their decks, and his second-in-command's death a few days earlier had been covered up for morale purposes. The only thing surprising about the battle is how long it took the Russians to give up.

If you feel comfortable reading English I can recommend a few books about the war you may find interesting.


Bill
 
Can we see at this timeline a new version of "Pearl harbour"? I mean, if the japanese lost the Russo-Japanese war and somehow there were no Russian revolution or just a minor conflict, what we get? An imperial Russia with two large pacific naval bases in 1930's with Bubnov-class battleships, and Imperial Japan, which will seek revenge. Is it possible that the Japanese will attack Port Arthur again, somewhere late 1930's with lots, lots of planes?
 

Onyx

Banned
Russia somewhat, was a good on the defense, during the Siege of Port Arthur, the Japs just ran to the walls while the Russian guns mowed them down, I've seen some pictures of multiple bodies on the front of the trenches and such, Japan suffered much more casualties than Russia as well. The Japanese did a horrible job in Sieging Port Arthur, and if Makarov was alive at the time, they could've won the Naval Battles.
Another reason that why Russia lost, is that it was unstable at the time, it was at critical point for the Russians. Of all the Great Power nations to fight Japan, Russia would be the worst to fight them, IMO

Russia was a pretty damn strong nation enough to win the war, but the reason why they lost was that the internal troubles they had back at home, they either keep on fighting, or face Revolution I guess.
 
Japanese victory in RJW was probably the best example of ASB in action. How often do you have a direct hit of ammo storage on admiral's (Togo's) flag ship staring fire and then second hit rupturing some water (or was it steam?) pipe to exterminate the fire on one side and two most capable admirals killed by lucky shots sequentially (Makarov and Vitgeft) on other side?
 
First battles...

If, in the opening rounds of the war, both fleets had been chewed up mopre, to the point of near mutual anhilation, then Japan's looking at the possibility of another fleet showing up. Sure, worn from its around the world trip, but with no Jananese battleships left...
 
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