I've been trying to figure out for a while what would happen to Europe's alliance structure if Prussia got dismantled after an alternate Seven Year's War.
Many people think the Austro-French alliance would break down as there's no longer the common enemy of Prussia to defeat any more. I'm increasingly thinking this isn't the case. France's main threat is Britain and Austria's main threat is Russia, and neither would want to be closely encircled. Austria has also already concluded that Britain is an unreliable ally and Britain would be even more unreliable now that Austria ditched her once. On top of this, there's an exchange of territories between Parma and the Southern Netherlands that is still in the interests of both parties.
More critically, a number of powerful individuals in both royal courts have staked their reputations and careers on the alliance working out, having marginalised those against it, and having made bitter enemies of them. There are also marriages between the Bourbons and the Habsburgs happening, which would be thrown into disarray.
If we also look from Russia's perspective, its only a few years before Catherine the Great comes in. She was pro-Enlightenment until the French Revolution, and looked favourably upon liberal Britain and sought her friendship in OTL. However, what held her back from a full alliance was worries about Britain's strength upsetting the balance of power. I think these worries will pale in this timeline compared to Austria getting Silesia and possibly Parma, and dismembering her only rival in central Europe.
My only question is the strength the Russian-French alliance, where my knowledge is not great. It doesn't seem to be that strong of an alliance, as they were on opposite sides of the War of the Austrian Succession. The alliance from Russia's perspective was mainly a legacy of Elizabeth's anger at Prussia. However, the Russian court did speak French and admire French culture, but I'm not sure how much significance that had.
(*By "Austria" I mean the Habsburgh monarchy but I used Austria for ease...)
Many people think the Austro-French alliance would break down as there's no longer the common enemy of Prussia to defeat any more. I'm increasingly thinking this isn't the case. France's main threat is Britain and Austria's main threat is Russia, and neither would want to be closely encircled. Austria has also already concluded that Britain is an unreliable ally and Britain would be even more unreliable now that Austria ditched her once. On top of this, there's an exchange of territories between Parma and the Southern Netherlands that is still in the interests of both parties.
More critically, a number of powerful individuals in both royal courts have staked their reputations and careers on the alliance working out, having marginalised those against it, and having made bitter enemies of them. There are also marriages between the Bourbons and the Habsburgs happening, which would be thrown into disarray.
If we also look from Russia's perspective, its only a few years before Catherine the Great comes in. She was pro-Enlightenment until the French Revolution, and looked favourably upon liberal Britain and sought her friendship in OTL. However, what held her back from a full alliance was worries about Britain's strength upsetting the balance of power. I think these worries will pale in this timeline compared to Austria getting Silesia and possibly Parma, and dismembering her only rival in central Europe.
My only question is the strength the Russian-French alliance, where my knowledge is not great. It doesn't seem to be that strong of an alliance, as they were on opposite sides of the War of the Austrian Succession. The alliance from Russia's perspective was mainly a legacy of Elizabeth's anger at Prussia. However, the Russian court did speak French and admire French culture, but I'm not sure how much significance that had.
(*By "Austria" I mean the Habsburgh monarchy but I used Austria for ease...)