18th Century Russian alliances

I've been trying to figure out for a while what would happen to Europe's alliance structure if Prussia got dismantled after an alternate Seven Year's War.

Many people think the Austro-French alliance would break down as there's no longer the common enemy of Prussia to defeat any more. I'm increasingly thinking this isn't the case. France's main threat is Britain and Austria's main threat is Russia, and neither would want to be closely encircled. Austria has also already concluded that Britain is an unreliable ally and Britain would be even more unreliable now that Austria ditched her once. On top of this, there's an exchange of territories between Parma and the Southern Netherlands that is still in the interests of both parties.

More critically, a number of powerful individuals in both royal courts have staked their reputations and careers on the alliance working out, having marginalised those against it, and having made bitter enemies of them. There are also marriages between the Bourbons and the Habsburgs happening, which would be thrown into disarray.

If we also look from Russia's perspective, its only a few years before Catherine the Great comes in. She was pro-Enlightenment until the French Revolution, and looked favourably upon liberal Britain and sought her friendship in OTL. However, what held her back from a full alliance was worries about Britain's strength upsetting the balance of power. I think these worries will pale in this timeline compared to Austria getting Silesia and possibly Parma, and dismembering her only rival in central Europe.

My only question is the strength the Russian-French alliance, where my knowledge is not great. It doesn't seem to be that strong of an alliance, as they were on opposite sides of the War of the Austrian Succession. The alliance from Russia's perspective was mainly a legacy of Elizabeth's anger at Prussia. However, the Russian court did speak French and admire French culture, but I'm not sure how much significance that had.


(*By "Austria" I mean the Habsburgh monarchy but I used Austria for ease...)
 
My only question is the strength the Russian-French alliance, where my knowledge is not great. It doesn't seem to be that strong of an alliance, as they were on opposite sides of the War of the Austrian Succession. The alliance from Russia's perspective was mainly a legacy of Elizabeth's anger at Prussia. However, the Russian court did speak French and admire French culture, but I'm not sure how much significance that had.

I wouldn't put too much stock into that; Frederick the Great also loved French culture.
 
IMHO what's more probable is that greater contact between France and Russia means either Austria siding with one or the other or alternately a Franco-Russian precursor of the Cold War. The question of partitions of Poland ITTL is going to be very interesting if they happen at all in this respect. Russia may patent the satellite state concept a couple of centuries earlier here, as a counter to Austria, while France at least initially will be looking at Austria more than Russia.
 
I take it the relationship was anything special then?

I wouldn't.

A good comparison would probably be China from the 1980s to today. A lot of West Europeans didn't really see it as a Great power until the 1770s, when suddenly it's carving up Poland and whupping the Ottomans. It was a rising power in the east, which people didn't really know how to grasp.

The British in particular were awful at negotiating with Russia; they kept trying to get Catherine to join the Revolution; when she asked for Minorca in return for, you know, going to war, they refused.

By the 1780s the French were sniffing around for an Anglo-French alliance to oppose the incipient Prussian-Russian alliance, but the British had no interest in that either.
 
IMHO what's more probable is that greater contact between France and Russia means either Austria siding with one or the other or alternately a Franco-Russian precursor of the Cold War. The question of partitions of Poland ITTL is going to be very interesting if they happen at all in this respect. Russia may patent the satellite state concept a couple of centuries earlier here, as a counter to Austria, while France at least initially will be looking at Austria more than Russia.

What do you mean by "greater contact" and by "precursor of the Cold War"?
 
What do you mean by "greater contact" and by "precursor of the Cold War"?

Exactly what I said. Greater Contact because Russian contact with Western Europe in a direct sense had been limited before the SYW, a precursor of the Cold War because France and Russia would be great powers without equal, while Austria would be in the Brazil situation of always having and always will have great potential.
 
Exactly what I said. Greater Contact because Russian contact with Western Europe in a direct sense had been limited before the SYW, a precursor of the Cold War because France and Russia would be great powers without equal, while Austria would be in the Brazil situation of always having and always will have great potential.

It seems like your scenario and mine don't need to disagree. The one Austria sides with is France, and Russia is on the other side (with Britain). In terms of great powers without equal, what about Britain?

So I now think Franco-Austria and Anglo-Russian blocs are very plausible. The question is which ones do the other states join: the Ottomans, Saxony, rump Brandenburg...
 
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