1899: Sulu/Marshall Swap

Throughout 1898 and into 1899, before a disagreement about Samoa, the United States and Germany were in negotiations for an island swap; the Germans were willing to hand over an atoll in the newly-acquired Marshall Islands to the United States in exchange for an island in the Sulu Archipelago. While the first German offer of Taongi was rejected outright, the second offer of Eniwetok was being considered up until 1899.

So, what would have happened if the Americans traded an island in the Sulu Archipelago (assume for the sake of argument that it's Tawi-Tawi) to Germany for Eniwetok in 1899? What happens in 1914 to Tawi-Tawi; if it's captured and annexed by Japan, what implications does this have on any future Pacific War? What does an American Eniwetok mean for any future Pacific War?
 
Throughout 1898 and into 1899, before a disagreement about Samoa, the United States and Germany were in negotiations for an island swap; the Germans were willing to hand over an atoll in the newly-acquired Marshall Islands to the United States in exchange for an island in the Sulu Archipelago. While the first German offer of Taongi was rejected outright, the second offer of Eniwetok was being considered up until 1899.

So, what would have happened if the Americans traded an island in the Sulu Archipelago (assume for the sake of argument that it's Tawi-Tawi) to Germany for Eniwetok in 1899? What happens in 1914 to Tawi-Tawi; if it's captured and annexed by Japan, what implications does this have on any future Pacific War? What does an American Eniwetok mean for any future Pacific War?
A different island holds the nuclear bomb tests?

Seriously, an isolated American island surrounded by Japanese ones isn't going to hold out any longer than Guam did, and will have essentially zero impact on an alt-Pacific War. IMO.
 
A different island holds the nuclear bomb tests?

Seriously, an isolated American island surrounded by Japanese ones isn't going to hold out any longer than Guam did, and will have essentially zero impact on an alt-Pacific War. IMO.

And a Japanese Tawi-Tawi, which is the more interesting result?
 
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