On the face of it, the Japanese fleet seems numerically superior to any one of the three European fleets stationed in the Pacific. If war does break out after the Triple Intervention nations push harder than OTL, and the Japanese manage to defeat all three fleets in detail, would the Europeans persevere, or would a diplomatic solution be reached? What kind of butterflies might we expect?
The Japanese are hopelessly out gunned by the Russians alone, the quality of the interventionists ships is vastly better than the Japanese and they are uniting at Cheefu. The plan, as drawn up by Makarov, calls for first attacking the Japanese transports supplying their forces in China. This means that the Japanese would be in the hopeless role of convoy escort when they get attacked
To get the Japanese fleet larger, you have to include a bunch of older ships too decrepit to leave coastal waters. particularly unarmored cruisers that wouldn't ast five minutes The Russians see their vital interests at risk and have had months to prepare both diplomatically and militarily. This "war" isn't going to last more than two weeks and the Japanese know it. They're just lucky the Russians were foolish enough to let them keep anything