1895 Triple Intervention leads to war

On the face of it, the Japanese fleet seems numerically superior to any one of the three European fleets stationed in the Pacific. If war does break out after the Triple Intervention nations push harder than OTL, and the Japanese manage to defeat all three fleets in detail, would the Europeans persevere, or would a diplomatic solution be reached? What kind of butterflies might we expect?

The Japanese are hopelessly out gunned by the Russians alone, the quality of the interventionists ships is vastly better than the Japanese and they are uniting at Cheefu. The plan, as drawn up by Makarov, calls for first attacking the Japanese transports supplying their forces in China. This means that the Japanese would be in the hopeless role of convoy escort when they get attacked

To get the Japanese fleet larger, you have to include a bunch of older ships too decrepit to leave coastal waters. particularly unarmored cruisers that wouldn't ast five minutes The Russians see their vital interests at risk and have had months to prepare both diplomatically and militarily. This "war" isn't going to last more than two weeks and the Japanese know it. They're just lucky the Russians were foolish enough to let them keep anything
 
The Japanese are hopelessly out gunned by the Russians alone, the quality of the interventionists ships is vastly better than the Japanese and they are uniting at Cheefu. The plan, as drawn up by Makarov, calls for first attacking the Japanese transports supplying their forces in China. This means that the Japanese would be in the hopeless role of convoy escort when they get attacked

To get the Japanese fleet larger, you have to include a bunch of older ships too decrepit to leave coastal waters. particularly unarmored cruisers that wouldn't ast five minutes The Russians see their vital interests at risk and have had months to prepare both diplomatically and militarily. This "war" isn't going to last more than two weeks and the Japanese know it. They're just lucky the Russians were foolish enough to let them keep anything
What was the Russian fleet consisting of at the time?
 
The Russians had in the Pacific the Battleship Nikolai, three armored cruisers, two protected cruisers, three unarmored cruisers, 6 gunboats and 9 torpedo boats. The Japanese fleet is really basically 8 protected cruisers 7 gunboats and maybe ten torpedo boats the rest being antiquated unarmored cruisers, older coastal defense ships and torpedo boats fit only for harbor defense. Torpedoes at the time were very crude with an effective range of at most 400 yards

Any counting tends to wildly inflate Japanese numbers because their entire fleet is their even if most of it isn't of any use. The older ships are used for harbor defense and training not for fighting a real war. The intervening powers only have ships fit for overseas service
 
The Russians had in the Pacific the Battleship Nikolai, three armored cruisers, two protected cruisers, three unarmored cruisers, 6 gunboats and 9 torpedo boats. The Japanese fleet is really basically 8 protected cruisers 7 gunboats and maybe ten torpedo boats the rest being antiquated unarmored cruisers, older coastal defense ships and torpedo boats fit only for harbor defense. Torpedoes at the time were very crude with an effective range of at most 400 yards

Any counting tends to wildly inflate Japanese numbers because their entire fleet is their even if most of it isn't of any use. The older ships are used for harbor defense and training not for fighting a real war. The intervening powers only have ships fit for overseas service
The Japanese also have the ironclad Fuso and the captured Chinese battleship
 
The Japanese also have the ironclad Fuso and the captured Chinese battleship

The Fuso is a twenty year old derelict that isn't going to stand up to the Russians, French or Germans and the captured Chinese vessel, while better, needs major repairs and overhauls. Pretty much the entire Japanese fleet is in tatters by this point and need major repairs- another mark in the interventionists favor. Compare the Fuso to the Nikolai, do you honestly think that it could withstand ten minutes of battle?

There is a reason the Japanese folded. They tried to get the British and Americans to help who turned them down and warned them that the Russians at least were serious. The Russians, French and Germans also have a lot more in reserve they can send out East- For example, the Russians had the Admiral Ushakov, Alexander II and Gangut as well as thre more armored cruisers that could be there in three months. The only reason these ships weren't sent out there already is becausethe Russians had, rightfully concluded that they already had more than enough
 
I have done a lot of research on this subject, and have what I believe to be a very accurate OOB for the 4 participants in May 95. The Japanese would have had to act quickly before further reinforcements arrived from Europe. The Japanese couldn't have engaged any earlier than mid to late May as they had to get their best fleet units back from the Pescadores and give them at least a minor service. Historically these ships arrived in Sasebo on 5 May. The Japanese would have had the advantages of a well drilled, homogeneous fleet, flush with victory and operating from home ports with good facilities. The allies had some heavy units with the Russians, but their training would have been suspect. The allies would have had three different fleets with different languages that had never operated together, and that were based in Chinese ports with poor repair facilities. Ultimately though, if the Allies were prepared to bring major units from Europe, then whether they were initially defeated or not, it would be irrelevant.

Russia - Vice Admiral Trytov, Siberian Flotilla:
Battleship - Imperator Nikolai I
Armoured Cruisers - Admiral Nachimov, Pamiat Azova, Vladimir Monomakh
Protected Cruisers - Admiral Kornilov, Rynda
Gunboats - Gremyashchi, Otvajni, Korietz, Mandjur, Bobr, Sivuch
Sloops - Kreiser, Razboinik, Zabiyaka
Torpedo Gunboats - Gaidamak, Vsadnik
Torpedo Boats - Borgo, Revel, Sungari, Sutchena, Sveaborg, Yantchikhe, Ussuri

France - Rear Admiral Count O. de Beaumont - Far East Naval Division
Old Armoured Cruiser- Bayard
Protected Cruisers - Alger, Islay
Old Cruiser - Duguay Trouin
Corvette - Forfait
Gunboat - Lion

Germany - Rear Admiral Paul Hoffman - East Asian Division
Protected Cruiser - Irene
Corvettes - Arcona, Marie
Gunboats - Iltis, Wolf

Japan - Vice Admiral Ito
Ironclad - Fuso
Coast Defence Ship - Hei Yen
Old Armoured Cruisers - Hiei, Kongo
Small Armoured Cruiser - Chiyoda
Protected Cruisers - Matsushima, Hashidate, Itsukushima, Yoshino, Naniwa, Takachiho, Akitsushima, Idzumi, Sai Yen
Small Crusers - Takao, Tsukushi, Yaeyama
Corvettes - Katsuragi, Yamato, Musashi, Kaimon, Tenryu, Amagi
Torpedo Gunboat - Kohei Go
Gunboats - Oshima, Banjo, Maya, Chokai, Atago, Akagi
Torpedo Boats - Fukuryu, Kotaka, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10.11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25
 
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The Russians had in the Pacific the Battleship Nikolai, three armored cruisers, two protected cruisers, three unarmored cruisers, 6 gunboats and 9 torpedo boats. The Japanese fleet is really basically 8 protected cruisers 7 gunboats and maybe ten torpedo boats the rest being antiquated unarmored cruisers, older coastal defense ships and torpedo boats fit only for harbor defense. Torpedoes at the time were very crude with an effective range of at most 400 yards

Any counting tends to wildly inflate Japanese numbers because their entire fleet is their even if most of it isn't of any use. The older ships are used for harbor defense and training not for fighting a real war. The intervening powers only have ships fit for overseas service

In fact most of the ships the allies had were fairly useless as well; old, slow, unarmoured corvettes, sloops and gunboats, which were common on colonial service. Germany and France had only 3 modern protected cruisers between them, of a similar standard to the Japanese modern cruisers. The Bayard, while powerful on paper was an ancient ship of wooden construction. The Russian battleship Nikolai was an awful ship. It had two low calibre, slow firing 12" guns of a similar nature to the eight 12" guns on the Chinese battleships, which proved of little use to them. Yalu proved that it was quick firing 6" and 4.7" guns, well handled, that overpowered the slow firing Chinese. The Nikolai also had the high unarmoured sides that proved extremely vulnerable to such rapid firing high explosive shells. The Russian crews were not up to the same standard as the Japanese and I think their ships would have suffered in a similar fashion.

I honestly believe that the Japanese would have won a fleet engagement between the two sides as of May 95'. Their problem however, and one to which there was no solution, was the ability of the three powers to massively reinforce from Europe.
 
In fact most of the ships the allies had were fairly useless as well; old, slow, unarmoured corvettes, sloops and gunboats, which were common on colonial service. Germany and France had only 3 modern protected cruisers between them, of a similar standard to the Japanese modern cruisers. The Bayard, while powerful on paper was an ancient ship of wooden construction. The Russian battleship Nikolai was an awful ship. It had two low calibre, slow firing 12" guns of a similar nature to the eight 12" guns on the Chinese battleships, which proved of little use to them. Yalu proved that it was quick firing 6" and 4.7" guns, well handled, that overpowered the slow firing Chinese. The Nikolai also had the high unarmoured sides that proved extremely vulnerable to such rapid firing high explosive shells. The Russian crews were not up to the same standard as the Japanese and I think their ships would have suffered in a similar fashion.

I honestly believe that the Japanese would have won a fleet engagement between the two sides as of May 95'.

The parties involved disagree.

The Russians have no intention of fighting a fleet engagement. Their plan is to attack the Japanese transports resupplying the mainland army. Forced into a convoy protection role, the Japanese would be forced to divide their forces and be saddled with slow unprotected ships to defend. The Russians would attack the transports and disengage. Nor is it likely that the Russians would make the same mistakes as the Chinese did at the Yalu







Their problem however, and one to which there was no solution, was the ability of the three powers to massively reinforce from Europe.

Which totally moots the issue. The allies have the firepower to destroy the Japanese fleet and partition her Empire. Japan knows this and unless someone will fight for them, they must back down
 
The parties involved disagree.

The Russians have no intention of fighting a fleet engagement. Their plan is to attack the Japanese transports resupplying the mainland army. Forced into a convoy protection role, the Japanese would be forced to divide their forces and be saddled with slow unprotected ships to defend. The Russians would attack the transports and disengage. Nor is it likely that the Russians would make the same mistakes as the Chinese did at the Yalu

The Russians may well have had that intention. It was similar to their plans for 1904, but it didn't work out for them then, and I don't believe they could make it work in 1895 either. But as I said, that is all irrelevant. The Japanese could see the long game and knew they would be ultimately doomed, however successful they might be initially. They then concentrated on building a 1st rate fleet, and isolating Russia in the east by alliance with Britain.
 
The Russians may well have had that intention. It was similar to their plans for 1904, but it didn't work out for them then, and I don't believe they could make it work in 1895 either. But as I said, that is all irrelevant. The Japanese could see the long game and knew they would be ultimately doomed, however successful they might be initially. They then concentrated on building a 1st rate fleet, and isolating Russia in the east by alliance with Britain.

I don' see the debate here. The Russians are penned up and have free reign of the ocean. They are in position to interfere with any effort to resupply the Japanese army. Japan cannot force a fleet engagement and reinforcements are readily available.

The Russians made some crucial mistakes after 1895 such as not pressing their advantage here, delaying buding a Pacific fleet and not adhering to the Chinese alliance

There is, however, nothing that Japan can do in 1895
 
I don' see the debate here. The Russians are penned up and have free reign of the ocean. They are in position to interfere with any effort to resupply the Japanese army. Japan cannot force a fleet engagement and reinforcements are readily available.

The Russians made some crucial mistakes after 1895 such as not pressing their advantage here, delaying buding a Pacific fleet and not adhering to the Chinese alliance

There is, however, nothing that Japan can do in 1895

There is plenty the Japanese can do in 1895 IMO. They can blockade the Russian fleet in Cheefu while they re-supply their troops. Even perhaps making the dreaded conquest of Peking. The only way the Russians can immediately change this is for a fleet engagement, as reinforcements would take months to arrive from Europe. I don't think the Russians had a great naval advantage on their own based on my comments previously. You obviously believe the opposite, but if this is not debatable, then so be it.
 
There is plenty the Japanese can do in 1895 IMO. They can blockade the Russian fleet in Cheefu while they re-supply their troops. Even perhaps making the dreaded conquest of Peking. The only way the Russians can immediately change this is for a fleet engagement, as reinforcements would take months to arrive from Europe. I don't think the Russians had a great naval advantage on their own based on my comments previously. You obviously believe the opposite, but if this is not debatable, then so be it.

Sorry to have taken so long to get back to you but there are several problems with your plans

Describing the Nikolai as "awful" is a bit much. The ship would take a pounding at Tsushima including a 12 inch shell and two 8 inch shells and still stood. inn 1895, the Japanese have nothing of the sort. Also at Tsushima, the Nakhimov engaged the Idzue and dispatched her quite easily even though the Japanese modernized her in 1902. She would take over 30 hits from Japanese armored cruisers that Japan lack in 1895 There's nothing in the Japanese order of battle that amounts to much except the protected cruisers.

The torpedo craft, while numerous proved unable to do much against anything but Chinese ships that were already crippled. I see no reason to expect anything more against the Russians. Torpedoes were awful in 1895 with limited range, low speed, air bubbles that made them easy to track and no gyroscope to control their track

As for operations, you admit that the Japanese would be unable to engage until late May. Unfortunately for them, the Russians put the Japanese transports under their guns on April 18. They will be sunk or surrendered in the opening round

Blockading Chefu is way beyond Japan. The ships lack wireless and would need to keep a constant watch on the harbor. Ships cannot stay at sea indefinitely and need to return to base for repairs and replinishment. The blockading force needs to be about three times that of the force blockaded to take into account ships en route and at port. Japan couldn't blockade Port Arthur even with the vastly stronger forces of 1905. They aren't blockading Chefu in 1895.

Its practically impossible to force a fleet engagement. The Japanese had to drive the Russians out of Port Arthur by land to force the fleet from its base and did trap the Russians trying to run the straits of Tsushima. Neither is happening in 1895

I know of no one at the time who thought your proposed strategy offered any hope for Japan. Kazi did argue that the Japanese fleet was stronger but the Grand Duke Alexi pretty much destroyed his arguments

As for Russian crews, the Pacific ships had been under Tyrtov who had gotten them ready during the long months of the Japanese War or the Mediterranean fleet under Makarov who had them up to his usual level of efficiency
 
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Sorry to have taken so long to get back to you but there are several problems with your plans

Describing the Nikolai as "awful" is a bit much. The ship would take a pounding at Tsushima including a 12 inch shell and two 8 inch shells and still stood. inn 1895, the Japanese have nothing of the sort. Also at Tsushima, the Nakhimov engaged the Idzue and dispatched her quite easily even though the Japanese modernized her in 1902. She would take over 30 hits from Japanese armored cruisers that Japan lack in 1895 There's nothing in the Japanese order of battle that amounts to much except the protected cruisers.

The torpedo craft, while numerous proved unable to do much against anything but Chinese ships that were already crippled. I see no reason to expect anything more against the Russians. Torpedoes were awful in 1895 with limited range, low speed, air bubbles that made them easy to track and no gyroscope to control their track

As for operations, you admit that the Japanese would be unable to engage until late May. Unfortunately for them, the Russians put the Japanese transports under their guns on April 18. They will be sunk or surrendered in the opening round

Blockading Chefu is way beyond Japan. The ships lack wireless and would need to keep a constant watch on the harbor. Ships cannot stay at sea indefinitely and need to return to base for repairs and replinishment. The blockading force needs to be about three times that of the force blockaded to take into account ships en route and at port. Japan couldn't blockade Port Arthur even with the vastly stronger forces of 1905. They aren't blockading Chefu in 1895.

Its practically impossible to force a fleet engagement. The Japanese had to drive the Russians out of Port Arthur by land to force the fleet from its base and did trap the Russians trying to run the straits of Tsushima. Neither is happening in 1895

I know of no one at the time who thought your proposed strategy offered any hope for Japan. Kazi did argue that the Japanese fleet was stronger but the Grand Duke Alexi pretty much destroyed his arguments

As for Russian crews, the Pacific ships had been under Tyrtov who had gotten them ready during the long months of the Japanese War or the Mediterranean fleet under Makarov who had them up to his usual level of efficiency

So this is debatable, good.

Sure, Nikolai is durable. So were the Chinese BB's, but they were overwhelmed by QF guns, and their slow firing pieces had no real reply. I expect the same fate for Nikolai.

Nachimov is IMO the best ship the Russians had. Idzumi is the oldest of the 'fast' IJN protected cuisers and the weakest with no QF guns. By 05 her guns had been massively downgraded from 2 x 10" and 6 x 6", to only 2 x 6" and 6 x 4.7". This is not a good comparison of ships.

TB's were extremely successful against the Chinese. Both Materially and Morally. They destroyed the Chinese battleship Ting Yuen along with others in night attacks on Wei Hei Wei. I expect the same at Cheefu. They were also very numerous and could operate from local ports (Wei Hei Wei and Port Arthur).

The 'friendly advice' wasn't even given until the 23 April, and the Japanese obviously had time to consider it. They just have to stall and then make a surprise attack on Cheefu as is their style.

The Russians projected no power from Port Arthur in 05, and this is with the IJN based much further away. A Blockade does not have to be tight inshore with an entire fleet to be effective.

Yeah, Makarov was a great commander, but he wasn't in charge, and I just don't rate the Russians in comparison to the Japanese. The Russians instigated the conflict against the 'inferior' Japanese. It would not look good for them to cower in port, although they may well have ended up doing just that.

I actually agree with you that it was not a good move for the Japanese to fight, and they knew it too. I am just saying that if they had, all was not initially hopeless.
 
So this is debatable, good.

Sure, Nikolai is durable. So were the Chinese BB's, but they were overwhelmed by QF guns, and their slow firing pieces had no real reply. I expect the same fate for Nikolai.

Nachimov is IMO the best ship the Russians had. Idzumi is the oldest of the 'fast' IJN protected cuisers and the weakest with no QF guns. By 05 her guns had been massively downgraded from 2 x 10" and 6 x 6", to only 2 x 6" and 6 x 4.7". This is not a good comparison of ships.

TB's were extremely successful against the Chinese. Both Materially and Morally. They destroyed the Chinese battleship Ting Yuen along with others in night attacks on Wei Hei Wei. I expect the same at Cheefu. They were also very numerous and could operate from local ports (Wei Hei Wei and Port Arthur).

The 'friendly advice' wasn't even given until the 23 April, and the Japanese obviously had time to consider it. They just have to stall and then make a surprise attack on Cheefu as is their style.

The Russians projected no power from Port Arthur in 05, and this is with the IJN based much further away. A Blockade does not have to be tight inshore with an entire fleet to be effective.

Yeah, Makarov was a great commander, but he wasn't in charge, and I just don't rate the Russians in comparison to the Japanese. The Russians instigated the conflict against the 'inferior' Japanese. It would not look good for them to cower in port, although they may well have ended up doing just that.

I actually agree with you that it was not a good move for the Japanese to fight, and they knew it too. I am just saying that if they had, all was not initially hopeless.

Ok let's go through this one more time:

1) Your assertion that the Nikolai was an awful ship is refuted by its ability to take a far greater pounding at Tsushima than the Japanese could deliver in 1895. The same is true of the Nakhimlov

2) The Japanese do not have the ability to blockade anything. You have asserted this with no support from the contemporary sources. I cannot square this assertion with the Japanese Navy admitting that they could not guarantee control over the Korea straits

3) The Japanese torpedo boats were ineffective at Weiheiwei until the Japanese army had seized the ports guns and destroyed the protective booms. Not happening at Chefu

4) The Russian fleet sortied many times from Port Arthur during 1904. Chefu is further from the Japanese bases, the Japanese fleet is inferior to the Russians and can't be kept united at all times The idea is preposterous

5) Makarov was in charge of the Mediterannean fleet. He had it up to snuff- so much for your claims that the Japanese sailors were superior to the Russians He's also in charge of planning

6) You assume that the Russians. French and Germans won't notice the Japanese efforts and just wait to be attacked. Again not happening. The Russians already put the Japanese transports under their guns on April 18/30 they will be destroyed

7) Yeah, it is hopeless for them to fight Not only to do they have to deal with the forces the Allies have in the Pacific, they would have to do something about the massive reserves the French, Russians and Germans have. If they try to resist, their fleet will be sunk, the Chinese army transported to ravage the Japanese homeland and Japan would have to accept partition
 
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