It's more surprising if Yamagata declared himself as "King of the Philippine Islands", which is impossible because aside from the fact that most Filipinos are Roman Catholic, he'll earn the wrath of the Imperial Japanese Government (and the Emperor himself, possibly).
I stand corrected. If the Philippines will become a Japanese colony, at least they're self-governing, with Yamagata as Governor-General.The scenario really is absorption of the Philippines to Japan whether it be a colony or a province or a protectorate and how it affects world events.
Being Roman Catholic will not be a hindrance to any cultural acceptance to Japan since before 1899, Philippines was not even an English speaking society nor culturally related to American culture that it is today. Even the politics of the Philippines did not even coincide with USA back then which resulted to war and occupation of the Philippines.
They do not need to overwhelm the Filipinos. The longest time that Japanization of Philippines would happen is 40 years. In OTL 1901, Filipinos did not know how to speak English. The Americans changed both the linguistic and cultural aspect of the Philippines by World War 2.
The Katipunan can stop existing once the Propaganda movement's demands are met.
OTL 1894, British Borneo was still not a crown colony and was still under the British North Borneo Company. Japan can still impose its will to Sabah in behalf of Sulu .
Japan also had industrialized and had already a modern navy which its military doctrine was specifically made to defeat a more superior force, like the British.
Apples and oranges. America during this time was the single richest and most industrialized state, and one of the de facto most powerful states on Earth. It's population was ten to twenty times that of the Phillipines. It's GDP was probably something on an order of well over a hundred times that of the Phillipines, and the United States was motivated to invest moderately heavily in the Phillipines for access to Asian markets beyond.
In contrast, Japan has perhaps six times the Phillipines population, it is dramatically less industrialized, much less wealthy, and simply doesn't have the same kinds of resources and ability. Even if Japan was to invest dramatically in the Phillipines, its not going to be anywhere near the American historical level... unless its prepared to bite deeply into its GDP, in which case, the money has to come from somewhere... the army? Agriculture? Industry? The Navy? Etc.
That central demand being for foreign overlords to get their ass out of the Phillipines, no more second class citizenship, and Philippines for Philippinos? Yeah, I see some problems for the Japanese in there.
Of course this is a big if, if Japan accepts all the demands of the Propaganda movement. If Japan doesn't, any purchase of the Philippines would be met by force.
Philosophically, the Katipunan is going to be at least as opposed to Japanese ownership as to Spanish ownership. Hell, they'll be a lot more opposed to Japanese ownership, because there won't even be the moderation of Spanish and Catholic cultural influences. To the Philippinos, the Japanese will be utterably and intolerably alien on a much greater scale.
You're assuming that the British government puts far less of a priority on its 'company' proxies than it would put on directly administered territory.
I think that might be ignoring the reality of British Bureaucracy, Commerce and Politics.
Directly administered territories were under the control of the British colonial office, and borders and territories could be negotiated as part of overall policy.
But territories under the control of a chartered company were a different kettle of fish. They weren't necessarily under the control or jurisdiction of the colonial office, but rather, of shareholders and directors in London with a personal commercial stake in these territories. A threat to these territories amounted to a threat to the fortunes of prominent citizens who would go screaming loudly to the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, Parliament, the Bureaucracy and the Royal Navy.
You seem to assume that if the territory was held as a British 'company' possession, rather than a direct colonial holding, it would be easier to take away. Frankly, that's a rather facile assumption and I don't think you can take it for granted. The real situation could well have been entirely the opposite.
I think that you overstate Japan's reach there. I don't see it being a credible threat to the British Navy until at least the 1930's. And as for logistics, well, the British Navy has no shortage of bases and logistical platforms in the region.
I think you are overthinking and have little understanding of Philippine history.
Having a better industry does not mean better assimilation. When the Americans arrived in the Philippines, it took USA 10 years just to pacify the Philippines.
Spanish only opened their educating system to the Filipinos 30 years before 1890s, where majority of the educated in the Philippines are Spanish speaking by 1894.
We all know Japan is not the same as USA and we are making a possible scenario for Japan to occupy the Philippines at less cost.
Being alien does not mean it is not possible.
The Filipinos are fighting because of discrimination. If you want to know the level of it, it is much like how the Blacks where having in the USA before Civil rights movement multiplied 10 times.
Any nation welcoming equality is better than the Spanish.
It is still possible for Philippines to assimilate within Japan.
But, like I said in the previous posts, it is more likely that Philippines will become either a colony, if propaganda movement demands are not accepted,
protectorate,
if Japan accepts independence, a province, if Japan accepts Propaganda movement demands.
Like I said in the last post you responded, Japan has a chance whether it is small to win versus Britain.
The most important which you apparently disregarded is that, the best chance for the Japanese was really to buy Borneo which every single person who responded to me like you utterly disregarded and which I have to repeat myself over and over again.
I agree with Kingsguard in substance, though perhaps not in detail.
The notion of a Japanese Philippines seems at least remotely plausible, and it has a major potential to change literally everything in Asia in almost utterly unpredictable ways. That's fascinating.
If I seem argumentative on this thread, I apologize. I don't see the Katipunan vanishing away in this TL, considering how developed they already were, and their trajectory in the remainder of the Spanish and American era OTL. Given the state of Japanese politics and economic and political development in the 1880's and 1890's, I find myself really skeptical that an insular and xenophobic society would handle a colonial venture flawlessly. I'm profoundly skeptical that the Japanese could go on to simply evict British interests in Borneo.
Having said all that, the stage is set for all kinds of bizarre shenanigans, and I prefer detail and complexity.
I don't see Japan being satisfied with Micronesia which really represents a few mostly 'worthless' dots. They're stalled or stymied by Europeans in the rest of southeast asia. Does this lead them into conflicts with the Portugese in Timor? With the Germans in Papua? With the Dutch in Indonesia? All of these are second order Colonial powers, perhaps more tempting for revanchism.
Does this increase the militarism of the entire region? Is there more commercial investment overall? More conflict and tension?
Or do things develop differently? Do the various colonial powers, including the Philippines develop a regional pact, a consensus?
I don't see Japan ignoring China altogether. That's just too big and tempting. But controlling the Philippines, with its large and prosperous Chinese minority, might affect Japan's approach to China.
I do see Japan being even more naval and militaristic in some respects. It's not just defending the home islands now.
Anyway, utterly fascinating.
Fair points all, but one thing to remember is that a great many of Japan's mineral resources could be provided by the Philippines, to say nothing of plenty of agricultural land and rich fishing grounds. While it may not kill the desire for greater expansion, I can easily see it getting a breathing spell, biding it's time until what Japan currently held was fully developed and integrated. After all, Korea, The Philippines, Taiwan, Karafuto, Micronesia and some slivers of Manchuria/China is nothing to sneeze at.
Japan may be short of resources. But one natural resource that Japan does have a fair bit of in the ground, paradoxically is gold:Quite possible on both points. But that doesn't actually change anything.
And at significant financial cost to the United States, and possibly horrific costs to the population of the Philippines.
That movement which opposed the United States is still there in this ATL, and capable of opposing the Japanese on the same terms.
You are correct that better industry does not mean better administration or assimilation. But it does mean more resources, more money, more manpower and more tools and equipment, more firearms and ammunition and supplies are available.
One of the results being an independence movement chock full of western ideas and influences, dedicated to getting foreign overlords out.
Well, yes and no. Look, it might not seem like it to you, but I'm a fan. I like the idea of Japan acquiring the Philippines. This seems like a major shift for Japan and a major potential realignment in the region with interesting consequences going in all directions. I don't think anyone's ever done any significant work.
But having said that, I'd rather not handwave all the issues away in favour of some wank.
Human nature being what it is .... not impossible. But exponentially more difficult. The Katipunan exist. They are a major gathering force in the Philippines. They have a list of grievances against the Spanish a mile long.
Suddenly, their country is sold out from under them by the Spanish to the ... Japanese? The Phiippinos weren't consulted. No one asked them if they wanted to be sold to the Japanese. The Japanese don't speak any of their language. The Japanese are alien to Catholicism which has taken root. The Japanese have no previous experience in the Philippines, they don't know the people, the local politics, nothing. All the Japanese know is that they bought the place and now they are making plans.
That's a collision course if every I saw one. Maybe it's possible to get off that collision course. But it seems to me that you don't just handwave it away, you have to make some sort of argument or present evidence.
Now I'm sorry if I'm pissing in your swimming pool, but there it is.
Given the treatment of the Ainu minority, or given Japanese conduct in Korea and Taiwan during this historical period, how is it possible to argue that the Philippines somehow get a better ride?
Well, that was the American's stock in trade, wasn't it? They were selling equality, democracy, and all that. That was American ideology. And yet, it didn't stop the Philippine insurrection. How are the Japanese going to do better, when their cultural ideology doesn't endorse equality? They won't even pay the lip service that the Americans did. You're almost certain to have an insurrection of some sort.
In any number of ways - many of them quite painful, expensive and difficult. The ponies option is there too, it's just a lot less likely.
Independence, autonomy, self rule, etc., and essentially a whole list of things antithetical to the Japanese, who have just expended a whole lot of money and resources buying the thing from the Spanish.... only to find the natives saying 'you don't own shit, here are our demands.' Collision course.
On a piece of territory they purchased outright? Hmmmm.
Well, except that Japan was hardly a full parliamentary democracy, and Provinces didn't have that much autonomy.
Agreed. Japan has a small chance. Tiny. Perhaps remote. Okay.
Fair catch. We haven't been discussing that prospect. So let's do it.
So far as I can tell, the United States is just about unique in its history for having acquired a significant proportion of its territory through purchase - notably the Louisiana purchase, the Gadsden Mexican Purchase, Alaska and the Virgin Islands.
By and large, however, states do not just sell their territories. For the critical American purchases - we had large tracts which the owning country put almost no value on, which was costly or likely to be lost or forfeit easily, where the purchaser had a position of strength and the seller a position of extreme weakness.
That doesn't really apply here. We're talking about the British Empire at the height of its wealth and power, with worldwide holdings, including major possessions - Malaysia, Hong Kong, India, Burma, Australia, Pacific Islands in the region. For British interests, there's no weakness or vulnerability which would motivate them to sell.
On the other side of the coin, I'm not seeing where Japan gets the capital or resources to buy? What are they going to use? Coupons? Monopoly money? An easy no down payment lay away plan? .... Okay, that sounds sarcastic, I don't mean it to be hurtful.
But the reality is that for this hypothetical purchase... Japan's short on resources. The seller isn't motivated to sell, which means it's probably not going to come cheap. In this ATL Japan's incredibly overstretched. It just purchased the Philippines, and its likely that the Philippines will be a huge financial drain for at least ten or fifteen years. It's trying to industrialize and modernize and that is sucking up vast amounts of capita. There may be wars with Russia or China, adventures in Korea.
Where is the money going to come from that Japan will use for this?
Again, I'm not adverse to this stuff, I think that it's a potentially very interesting prospect for a timeline.
In 1846, the island of Labuan on the west coast of Sabah was ceded to Britain by the Sultan of Brunei and in 1848 it became the British Crown Colony of North Borneo.[17][18] Following a series of transfers, the rights to North Borneo were transferred to Alfred Dent, whom in 1881 formed the British North Borneo Provisional Association Ltd (predecessor to British North Borneo Company).[19] In the following year, the British North Borneo Company was formed and Kudat was made its capital. In 1883 the capital was moved to Sandakan. In 1885, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany signed the Madrid Protocol of 1885, which recognised the sovereignty of Spain in the Sulu Archipelago in return for the relinquishment of all Spanish claims over North Borneo.[20] In 1888 North Borneo became a protectorate of the United Kingdom.
James Brooke was appointed Rajah by the Sultan of Brunei on 18 August 1842. Brooke ruled the territory, later expanded, across the western regions of Sarawak around Kuching until his death in 1868. His nephew Charles Anthoni Johnson Brooke became Rajah after his death; he was succeeded on his death in 1917 by his son, Charles Vyner Brooke, with the condition that Charles should rule in consultation with his brother Bertram Brooke.[8] The Sarawak territories were greatly enlarged under the Brooke dynasty, mostly at the expense of areas nominally under the control of Brunei. In practice Brunei had only controlled strategic river and coastal forts in much of the lost territory, so most of the gain was at the expense of Muslim warlords and of the de facto independence of local tribes.
The Brooke dynasty ruled Sarawak for a hundred years and became famous as the "White Rajahs", accorded a status within the British Empire similar to that of the rulers of Indian princely states.
In the 1880s, as the decline of the Bruneian Empire continued, and Brunei lost much of its territory to the ruling White Rajahs of the neighbouring Kingdom of Sarawak. Sultan Hashim Jalilul Alam Aqamaddin appealed to the British to stop further encroachment.[34] The "Treaty of Protection" was negotiated by Sir Hugh Low and signed into effect on 17 September 1888. The treaty did state that the Sultan "could not cede or lease any territory to foreign powers without British consent" – but it also enabledBritain's control over Brunei's external affairs and made it a British protectorate (which continued until 1984).[6] When the Kingdom of Sarawak annexed Brunei's Pandaruan district in 1890, the British did not take any action to stop it, as they did not regard either Brunei or the Kingdom of Sarawak as 'foreign' (per the Treaty of Protection). This final annexation by Sarawak left Brunei with its current small land mass and separation into two parts.[35]
As for land availability in the Philippines, I was able to find that the total acreage under cultivation increased OTL in the Philippines from 2.28 million hectares to 7.7 million hectares with an average farm size of 3.5 hectares.
This provides ample scope (once independence movements are suppressed) for at least 1 million farm families from Japan to gain land in the Philippines.