1894 - Japan buys the Philippines

It's more surprising if Yamagata declared himself as "King of the Philippine Islands", which is impossible because aside from the fact that most Filipinos are Roman Catholic, he'll earn the wrath of the Imperial Japanese Government (and the Emperor himself, possibly).
 
It's more surprising if Yamagata declared himself as "King of the Philippine Islands", which is impossible because aside from the fact that most Filipinos are Roman Catholic, he'll earn the wrath of the Imperial Japanese Government (and the Emperor himself, possibly).

Yamagata declaring himself Emperor would be an impossible scenario. He is after all the President of the Privy council of the Emperor paying with the Emperor's money.

The scenario really is absorption of the Philippines to Japan whether it be a colony or a province or a protectorate and how it affects world events.

Being Roman Catholic will not be a hindrance to any cultural acceptance to Japan since before 1899, Philippines was not even an English speaking society nor culturally related to American culture that it is today. Even the politics of the Philippines did not even coincide with USA back then which resulted to war and occupation of the Philippines.
 
The scenario really is absorption of the Philippines to Japan whether it be a colony or a province or a protectorate and how it affects world events.

Being Roman Catholic will not be a hindrance to any cultural acceptance to Japan since before 1899, Philippines was not even an English speaking society nor culturally related to American culture that it is today. Even the politics of the Philippines did not even coincide with USA back then which resulted to war and occupation of the Philippines.
I stand corrected. If the Philippines will become a Japanese colony, at least they're self-governing, with Yamagata as Governor-General.
 
They do not need to overwhelm the Filipinos. The longest time that Japanization of Philippines would happen is 40 years. In OTL 1901, Filipinos did not know how to speak English. The Americans changed both the linguistic and cultural aspect of the Philippines by World War 2.

Apples and oranges. America during this time was the single richest and most industrialized state, and one of the de facto most powerful states on Earth. It's population was ten to twenty times that of the Phillipines. It's GDP was probably something on an order of well over a hundred times that of the Phillipines, and the United States was motivated to invest moderately heavily in the Phillipines for access to Asian markets beyond.

In contrast, Japan has perhaps six times the Phillipines population, it is dramatically less industrialized, much less wealthy, and simply doesn't have the same kinds of resources and ability. Even if Japan was to invest dramatically in the Phillipines, its not going to be anywhere near the American historical level... unless its prepared to bite deeply into its GDP, in which case, the money has to come from somewhere... the army? Agriculture? Industry? The Navy? Etc.


The Katipunan can stop existing once the Propaganda movement's demands are met.

That central demand being for foreign overlords to get their ass out of the Phillipines, no more second class citizenship, and Philippines for Philippinos? Yeah, I see some problems for the Japanese in there.

Of course this is a big if, if Japan accepts all the demands of the Propaganda movement. If Japan doesn't, any purchase of the Philippines would be met by force.

Philosophically, the Katipunan is going to be at least as opposed to Japanese ownership as to Spanish ownership. Hell, they'll be a lot more opposed to Japanese ownership, because there won't even be the moderation of Spanish and Catholic cultural influences. To the Philippinos, the Japanese will be utterably and intolerably alien on a much greater scale.



OTL 1894, British Borneo was still not a crown colony and was still under the British North Borneo Company. Japan can still impose its will to Sabah in behalf of Sulu .

You're assuming that the British government puts far less of a priority on its 'company' proxies than it would put on directly administered territory.

I think that might be ignoring the reality of British Bureaucracy, Commerce and Politics.

Directly administered territories were under the control of the British colonial office, and borders and territories could be negotiated as part of overall policy.

But territories under the control of a chartered company were a different kettle of fish. They weren't necessarily under the control or jurisdiction of the colonial office, but rather, of shareholders and directors in London with a personal commercial stake in these territories. A threat to these territories amounted to a threat to the fortunes of prominent citizens who would go screaming loudly to the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, Parliament, the Bureaucracy and the Royal Navy.

You seem to assume that if the territory was held as a British 'company' possession, rather than a direct colonial holding, it would be easier to take away. Frankly, that's a rather facile assumption and I don't think you can take it for granted. The real situation could well have been entirely the opposite.


Japan also had industrialized and had already a modern navy which its military doctrine was specifically made to defeat a more superior force, like the British.

I think that you overstate Japan's reach there. I don't see it being a credible threat to the British Navy until at least the 1930's. And as for logistics, well, the British Navy has no shortage of bases and logistical platforms in the region.
 
Apples and oranges. America during this time was the single richest and most industrialized state, and one of the de facto most powerful states on Earth. It's population was ten to twenty times that of the Phillipines. It's GDP was probably something on an order of well over a hundred times that of the Phillipines, and the United States was motivated to invest moderately heavily in the Phillipines for access to Asian markets beyond.

In contrast, Japan has perhaps six times the Phillipines population, it is dramatically less industrialized, much less wealthy, and simply doesn't have the same kinds of resources and ability. Even if Japan was to invest dramatically in the Phillipines, its not going to be anywhere near the American historical level... unless its prepared to bite deeply into its GDP, in which case, the money has to come from somewhere... the army? Agriculture? Industry? The Navy? Etc.

That central demand being for foreign overlords to get their ass out of the Phillipines, no more second class citizenship, and Philippines for Philippinos? Yeah, I see some problems for the Japanese in there.

I think you are overthinking and have little understanding of Philippine history. Having a better industry does not mean better assimilation. When the Americans arrived in the Philippines, it took USA 10 years just to pacify the Philippines.

Spanish only opened their educating system to the Filipinos 30 years before 1890s, where majority of the educated in the Philippines are Spanish speaking by 1894.

We all know Japan is not the same as USA and we are making a possible scenario for Japan to occupy the Philippines at less cost.

Of course this is a big if, if Japan accepts all the demands of the Propaganda movement. If Japan doesn't, any purchase of the Philippines would be met by force.

Philosophically, the Katipunan is going to be at least as opposed to Japanese ownership as to Spanish ownership. Hell, they'll be a lot more opposed to Japanese ownership, because there won't even be the moderation of Spanish and Catholic cultural influences. To the Philippinos, the Japanese will be utterably and intolerably alien on a much greater scale.

Being alien does not mean it is not possible. The Filipinos are fighting because of discrimination. If you want to know the level of it, it is much like how the Blacks where having in the USA before Civil rights movement multiplied 10 times.

Any nation welcoming equality is better than the Spanish. It is still possible for Philippines to assimilate within Japan. But, like I said in the previous posts, it is more likely that Philippines will become either a colony, if propaganda movement demands are not accepted, protectorate, if Japan accepts independence, a province, if Japan accepts Propaganda movement demands.



You're assuming that the British government puts far less of a priority on its 'company' proxies than it would put on directly administered territory.

I think that might be ignoring the reality of British Bureaucracy, Commerce and Politics.

Directly administered territories were under the control of the British colonial office, and borders and territories could be negotiated as part of overall policy.

But territories under the control of a chartered company were a different kettle of fish. They weren't necessarily under the control or jurisdiction of the colonial office, but rather, of shareholders and directors in London with a personal commercial stake in these territories. A threat to these territories amounted to a threat to the fortunes of prominent citizens who would go screaming loudly to the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, Parliament, the Bureaucracy and the Royal Navy.

You seem to assume that if the territory was held as a British 'company' possession, rather than a direct colonial holding, it would be easier to take away. Frankly, that's a rather facile assumption and I don't think you can take it for granted. The real situation could well have been entirely the opposite.

I think that you overstate Japan's reach there. I don't see it being a credible threat to the British Navy until at least the 1930's. And as for logistics, well, the British Navy has no shortage of bases and logistical platforms in the region.

Like I said in the last post you responded, Japan has a chance whether it is small to win versus Britain. The most important which you apparently disregarded is that, the best chance for the Japanese was really to buy Borneo which every single person who responded to me like you utterly disregarded and which I have to repeat myself over and over again.
 
I think you are overthinking and have little understanding of Philippine history.

Quite possible on both points. But that doesn't actually change anything.

Having a better industry does not mean better assimilation. When the Americans arrived in the Philippines, it took USA 10 years just to pacify the Philippines.

And at significant financial cost to the United States, and possibly horrific costs to the population of the Philippines.

That movement which opposed the United States is still there in this ATL, and capable of opposing the Japanese on the same terms.

You are correct that better industry does not mean better administration or assimilation. But it does mean more resources, more money, more manpower and more tools and equipment, more firearms and ammunition and supplies are available.


Spanish only opened their educating system to the Filipinos 30 years before 1890s, where majority of the educated in the Philippines are Spanish speaking by 1894.

One of the results being an independence movement chock full of western ideas and influences, dedicated to getting foreign overlords out.


We all know Japan is not the same as USA and we are making a possible scenario for Japan to occupy the Philippines at less cost.

Well, yes and no. Look, it might not seem like it to you, but I'm a fan. I like the idea of Japan acquiring the Philippines. This seems like a major shift for Japan and a major potential realignment in the region with interesting consequences going in all directions. I don't think anyone's ever done any significant work.

But having said that, I'd rather not handwave all the issues away in favour of some wank.


Being alien does not mean it is not possible.

Human nature being what it is .... not impossible. But exponentially more difficult. The Katipunan exist. They are a major gathering force in the Philippines. They have a list of grievances against the Spanish a mile long.

Suddenly, their country is sold out from under them by the Spanish to the ... Japanese? The Phiippinos weren't consulted. No one asked them if they wanted to be sold to the Japanese. The Japanese don't speak any of their language. The Japanese are alien to Catholicism which has taken root. The Japanese have no previous experience in the Philippines, they don't know the people, the local politics, nothing. All the Japanese know is that they bought the place and now they are making plans.

That's a collision course if every I saw one. Maybe it's possible to get off that collision course. But it seems to me that you don't just handwave it away, you have to make some sort of argument or present evidence.

Now I'm sorry if I'm pissing in your swimming pool, but there it is.


The Filipinos are fighting because of discrimination. If you want to know the level of it, it is much like how the Blacks where having in the USA before Civil rights movement multiplied 10 times.

Given the treatment of the Ainu minority, or given Japanese conduct in Korea and Taiwan during this historical period, how is it possible to argue that the Philippines somehow get a better ride?


Any nation welcoming equality is better than the Spanish.

Well, that was the American's stock in trade, wasn't it? They were selling equality, democracy, and all that. That was American ideology. And yet, it didn't stop the Philippine insurrection. How are the Japanese going to do better, when their cultural ideology doesn't endorse equality? They won't even pay the lip service that the Americans did. You're almost certain to have an insurrection of some sort.


It is still possible for Philippines to assimilate within Japan.

In any number of ways - many of them quite painful, expensive and difficult. The ponies option is there too, it's just a lot less likely.


But, like I said in the previous posts, it is more likely that Philippines will become either a colony, if propaganda movement demands are not accepted,

Independence, autonomy, self rule, etc., and essentially a whole list of things antithetical to the Japanese, who have just expended a whole lot of money and resources buying the thing from the Spanish.... only to find the natives saying 'you don't own shit, here are our demands.' Collision course.


protectorate,

On a piece of territory they purchased outright? Hmmmm.


if Japan accepts independence, a province, if Japan accepts Propaganda movement demands.

Well, except that Japan was hardly a full parliamentary democracy, and Provinces didn't have that much autonomy.


Like I said in the last post you responded, Japan has a chance whether it is small to win versus Britain.

Agreed. Japan has a small chance. Tiny. Perhaps remote. Okay.


The most important which you apparently disregarded is that, the best chance for the Japanese was really to buy Borneo which every single person who responded to me like you utterly disregarded and which I have to repeat myself over and over again.

Fair catch. We haven't been discussing that prospect. So let's do it.

So far as I can tell, the United States is just about unique in its history for having acquired a significant proportion of its territory through purchase - notably the Louisiana purchase, the Gadsden Mexican Purchase, Alaska and the Virgin Islands.

By and large, however, states do not just sell their territories. For the critical American purchases - we had large tracts which the owning country put almost no value on, which was costly or likely to be lost or forfeit easily, where the purchaser had a position of strength and the seller a position of extreme weakness.

That doesn't really apply here. We're talking about the British Empire at the height of its wealth and power, with worldwide holdings, including major possessions - Malaysia, Hong Kong, India, Burma, Australia, Pacific Islands in the region. For British interests, there's no weakness or vulnerability which would motivate them to sell.

On the other side of the coin, I'm not seeing where Japan gets the capital or resources to buy? What are they going to use? Coupons? Monopoly money? An easy no down payment lay away plan? .... Okay, that sounds sarcastic, I don't mean it to be hurtful.

But the reality is that for this hypothetical purchase... Japan's short on resources. The seller isn't motivated to sell, which means it's probably not going to come cheap. In this ATL Japan's incredibly overstretched. It just purchased the Philippines, and its likely that the Philippines will be a huge financial drain for at least ten or fifteen years. It's trying to industrialize and modernize and that is sucking up vast amounts of capita. There may be wars with Russia or China, adventures in Korea.

Where is the money going to come from that Japan will use for this?

Again, I'm not adverse to this stuff, I think that it's a potentially very interesting prospect for a timeline.
 
This remains a fascinating scenario - I could easily see Japan in this scenario giving up on China or further conquests, save maybe Micronesia or dividing Manchuria with Russia. Instead, I could see them expending most of their energy on Nipponizing and integrating what they have, making Korea, Taiwan and the Phillipine Islands as integral to Japan as Kyushu or Hokkaido.

An unfortunate outcome for the Koreans and Phillipinos obviously, but it would no doubt butterfly any dreams of going to war with the West for a generation or two.
 
I agree with Kingsguard in substance, though perhaps not in detail.

The notion of a Japanese Philippines seems at least remotely plausible, and it has a major potential to change literally everything in Asia in almost utterly unpredictable ways. That's fascinating.

If I seem argumentative on this thread, I apologize. I don't see the Katipunan vanishing away in this TL, considering how developed they already were, and their trajectory in the remainder of the Spanish and American era OTL. Given the state of Japanese politics and economic and political development in the 1880's and 1890's, I find myself really skeptical that an insular and xenophobic society would handle a colonial venture flawlessly. I'm profoundly skeptical that the Japanese could go on to simply evict British interests in Borneo.

Having said all that, the stage is set for all kinds of bizarre shenanigans, and I prefer detail and complexity.

I don't see Japan being satisfied with Micronesia which really represents a few mostly 'worthless' dots. They're stalled or stymied by Europeans in the rest of southeast asia. Does this lead them into conflicts with the Portugese in Timor? With the Germans in Papua? With the Dutch in Indonesia? All of these are second order Colonial powers, perhaps more tempting for revanchism.

Does this increase the militarism of the entire region? Is there more commercial investment overall? More conflict and tension?

Or do things develop differently? Do the various colonial powers, including the Philippines develop a regional pact, a consensus?

I don't see Japan ignoring China altogether. That's just too big and tempting. But controlling the Philippines, with its large and prosperous Chinese minority, might affect Japan's approach to China.

I do see Japan being even more naval and militaristic in some respects. It's not just defending the home islands now.

Anyway, utterly fascinating.
 
I agree with Kingsguard in substance, though perhaps not in detail.

The notion of a Japanese Philippines seems at least remotely plausible, and it has a major potential to change literally everything in Asia in almost utterly unpredictable ways. That's fascinating.

If I seem argumentative on this thread, I apologize. I don't see the Katipunan vanishing away in this TL, considering how developed they already were, and their trajectory in the remainder of the Spanish and American era OTL. Given the state of Japanese politics and economic and political development in the 1880's and 1890's, I find myself really skeptical that an insular and xenophobic society would handle a colonial venture flawlessly. I'm profoundly skeptical that the Japanese could go on to simply evict British interests in Borneo.

Having said all that, the stage is set for all kinds of bizarre shenanigans, and I prefer detail and complexity.

I don't see Japan being satisfied with Micronesia which really represents a few mostly 'worthless' dots. They're stalled or stymied by Europeans in the rest of southeast asia. Does this lead them into conflicts with the Portugese in Timor? With the Germans in Papua? With the Dutch in Indonesia? All of these are second order Colonial powers, perhaps more tempting for revanchism.

Does this increase the militarism of the entire region? Is there more commercial investment overall? More conflict and tension?

Or do things develop differently? Do the various colonial powers, including the Philippines develop a regional pact, a consensus?

I don't see Japan ignoring China altogether. That's just too big and tempting. But controlling the Philippines, with its large and prosperous Chinese minority, might affect Japan's approach to China.

I do see Japan being even more naval and militaristic in some respects. It's not just defending the home islands now.

Anyway, utterly fascinating.

Fair points all, but one thing to remember is that a great many of Japan's mineral resources could be provided by the Philippines, to say nothing of plenty of agricultural land and rich fishing grounds. While it may not kill the desire for greater expansion, I can easily see it getting a breathing spell, biding it's time until what Japan currently held was fully developed and integrated. After all, Korea, The Philippines, Taiwan, Karafuto, Micronesia and some slivers of Manchuria/China is nothing to sneeze at.
 
Fair points all, but one thing to remember is that a great many of Japan's mineral resources could be provided by the Philippines, to say nothing of plenty of agricultural land and rich fishing grounds. While it may not kill the desire for greater expansion, I can easily see it getting a breathing spell, biding it's time until what Japan currently held was fully developed and integrated. After all, Korea, The Philippines, Taiwan, Karafuto, Micronesia and some slivers of Manchuria/China is nothing to sneeze at.

Yeah, but you forget human nature. The more people get, the more they want.

The only thing a millionaire wants is more millions. The only thing a billionaire wants is power and influence to go with all that money.

Give Japan the critical resources it needs, and it will only become more ambitious, not less.

That's just how people are. Deep down, everyone is Tsalal.
 
I suspect that, given how difficult it is to keep the Philippines in peace with Japan, the Japanese would be more interested in negotiating peace agreements with the Philippine people than trying to change Filipino culture to make the Philippines just like the Japanese. I'd assume that all Japan wants is more land and resources, not assimilation.
 
As a Filipino, It would be nice to see a rather different Philippines and a rather different Japan and a rather different world. This is a crucial moment in Japanese history. It could end in many ways.

.... but Namayan, if you're a Filipino like me, and to Filipinos reading this thread..., despite our attraction to Japan during the 1890s as well as large parts of Asia in standing up to the white man; do you really think that the Japanese would be benevolent enough to us? And they would accept the Propaganda Movement's programs? I think as part of a slow Japanization programme. Might be. And the American subjugation of our country lasted for 10 years and a lot of atrocities! What can these Japanese give to us where we don't share a lot of history with them? And for us to accept their "Divine Emperor"? Come on.

A slow Japanization process can be done though. But at the risk of terrorism in the colony that might not allow Japan to look so outward in Asia, thanks to us. I don't see a rosy Japanese take over, but it could be done. And it might be good for Japan in the long run in being more diverse and acceptive of the "gaikojins".

I see us as Japan's blacks in the long run. And a Filipino prime minister?! :eek:

Hmmmm...
 

katchen

Banned
Japan rich in gold

Quite possible on both points. But that doesn't actually change anything.



And at significant financial cost to the United States, and possibly horrific costs to the population of the Philippines.

That movement which opposed the United States is still there in this ATL, and capable of opposing the Japanese on the same terms.

You are correct that better industry does not mean better administration or assimilation. But it does mean more resources, more money, more manpower and more tools and equipment, more firearms and ammunition and supplies are available.




One of the results being an independence movement chock full of western ideas and influences, dedicated to getting foreign overlords out.




Well, yes and no. Look, it might not seem like it to you, but I'm a fan. I like the idea of Japan acquiring the Philippines. This seems like a major shift for Japan and a major potential realignment in the region with interesting consequences going in all directions. I don't think anyone's ever done any significant work.

But having said that, I'd rather not handwave all the issues away in favour of some wank.




Human nature being what it is .... not impossible. But exponentially more difficult. The Katipunan exist. They are a major gathering force in the Philippines. They have a list of grievances against the Spanish a mile long.

Suddenly, their country is sold out from under them by the Spanish to the ... Japanese? The Phiippinos weren't consulted. No one asked them if they wanted to be sold to the Japanese. The Japanese don't speak any of their language. The Japanese are alien to Catholicism which has taken root. The Japanese have no previous experience in the Philippines, they don't know the people, the local politics, nothing. All the Japanese know is that they bought the place and now they are making plans.

That's a collision course if every I saw one. Maybe it's possible to get off that collision course. But it seems to me that you don't just handwave it away, you have to make some sort of argument or present evidence.

Now I'm sorry if I'm pissing in your swimming pool, but there it is.




Given the treatment of the Ainu minority, or given Japanese conduct in Korea and Taiwan during this historical period, how is it possible to argue that the Philippines somehow get a better ride?




Well, that was the American's stock in trade, wasn't it? They were selling equality, democracy, and all that. That was American ideology. And yet, it didn't stop the Philippine insurrection. How are the Japanese going to do better, when their cultural ideology doesn't endorse equality? They won't even pay the lip service that the Americans did. You're almost certain to have an insurrection of some sort.




In any number of ways - many of them quite painful, expensive and difficult. The ponies option is there too, it's just a lot less likely.




Independence, autonomy, self rule, etc., and essentially a whole list of things antithetical to the Japanese, who have just expended a whole lot of money and resources buying the thing from the Spanish.... only to find the natives saying 'you don't own shit, here are our demands.' Collision course.




On a piece of territory they purchased outright? Hmmmm.




Well, except that Japan was hardly a full parliamentary democracy, and Provinces didn't have that much autonomy.




Agreed. Japan has a small chance. Tiny. Perhaps remote. Okay.




Fair catch. We haven't been discussing that prospect. So let's do it.

So far as I can tell, the United States is just about unique in its history for having acquired a significant proportion of its territory through purchase - notably the Louisiana purchase, the Gadsden Mexican Purchase, Alaska and the Virgin Islands.

By and large, however, states do not just sell their territories. For the critical American purchases - we had large tracts which the owning country put almost no value on, which was costly or likely to be lost or forfeit easily, where the purchaser had a position of strength and the seller a position of extreme weakness.

That doesn't really apply here. We're talking about the British Empire at the height of its wealth and power, with worldwide holdings, including major possessions - Malaysia, Hong Kong, India, Burma, Australia, Pacific Islands in the region. For British interests, there's no weakness or vulnerability which would motivate them to sell.

On the other side of the coin, I'm not seeing where Japan gets the capital or resources to buy? What are they going to use? Coupons? Monopoly money? An easy no down payment lay away plan? .... Okay, that sounds sarcastic, I don't mean it to be hurtful.

But the reality is that for this hypothetical purchase... Japan's short on resources. The seller isn't motivated to sell, which means it's probably not going to come cheap. In this ATL Japan's incredibly overstretched. It just purchased the Philippines, and its likely that the Philippines will be a huge financial drain for at least ten or fifteen years. It's trying to industrialize and modernize and that is sucking up vast amounts of capita. There may be wars with Russia or China, adventures in Korea.

Where is the money going to come from that Japan will use for this?

Again, I'm not adverse to this stuff, I think that it's a potentially very interesting prospect for a timeline.
Japan may be short of resources. But one natural resource that Japan does have a fair bit of in the ground, paradoxically is gold:
The Hishikari mine is one of the largest gold mines in Japan and in the world.[1][not in citation given] The mine is located in Japan.[1] The mine has estimated reserves of 8 million oz of gold[1] and is being developed by Nordgold.[citation needed]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hishikari_minemall-scale gold mining is said to have started at Toi around 1370 during the period of the Ashikaga Bakufu.[1] The gold mine was operated on a large scale from the time of Tokugawa Ieyasu in the late 16th century.[2] Several mines were open in 1577, but Tokugawa Ieyasu endeavored to their development from 1601.[1] He put the exploitation of the mine under the responsibility of Gold Mine Minister (金山奉行) Ōkubo.
Toi was one of several goldmines of the Izu Peninsula, such as Yugashima or Nawaji,[2] totaling about 60 gold mines in Izu alone.[1] The gold and silver produced by these mines permitted the production of Tokugawa coinage, and allowed for the prosperity of the Tokugawa. The city of Toi itself became highly prosperous, with numerous trades flooding in to service the workers and the administration at the gold mine, so that Toi became known as "Toi Sengen" (土肥千軒, "Toi of the 1,000 shops")http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toi_gold_mine.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toi_gold_mine#cite_note-tm-1
ado experienced a sudden economic boom during the Edo era when gold was found in 1601 at Aikawa (相川?). A major source of revenue for the Tokugawa shogunate, the mines were worked in very severe conditions.
A manpower shortage led to a second wave of "exiles" coming to Sado, although this time it was not imposed as a sentence for a committed crime. By sending homeless people (the number of whom was growing in Japanese cities at the time) to Sado from the 18th century, the Shogunate hoped to solve two problems with one move. The homeless were sent as water collectors and worked in extremely hard conditions, with a short life expectancy. The mine at its peak in the Edo era produced around 400 kg of gold a year (as well as some silver). The small settlement of Aikawa quickly reached a population of around 100,000. The mine closed in 1989.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sado,_Niigata .


Japan can pay for a great deal of imports simply with gold--which can pay for the Philippines too--which has a lot more gold.
As for land availability in the Philippines, I was able to find that the total acreage under cultivation increased OTL in the Philippines from 2.28 million hectares to 7.7 million hectares with an average farm size of 3.5 hectares.

pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/download/153/699
clipped from Google - 7/2013
The Cost of Property Rights: Establishing Institutions on the ...

www.wcfia.harvard.edu
www.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/.../Maurer-Iyer.pdf

This provides ample scope (once independence movements are suppressed) for at least 1 million farm families from Japan to gain land in the Philippines.

And as far as North Borneo is concerned, the fact of the matter is that that particular colony has been UP FOR SALE. Japan isn't going to just take North Borneo. Japan will be buying North Borneo. And if an equitable price can be reached with the Sultan of Brunei ( then under UK protection as a UK protectorate) on buying out the leases of the Rajajh Brookes, perhaps Sarawak as well.
If Japan can buy these places--no complaints. The only places in North Borneo the Japanese will definitely NOT be allowed to buy will be Labuan Island (it's a British colony and has a coal mine) and Brunei itself (which has a major oilfield, Jerudong)_.








 
I'm starting to feel bad for not being persuaded by your arguments. It feels like I'm kicking a puppy. I recognize you're passionately invested in this idea, or these ideas, but I don't feel that more than a hypothetical 'in potentio' case is made, which doesn't amount to more than wishful thinking. I'm prepared to continue to listen, and I think I want to be persuaded. But....

North Borneo amounts to three British holdings. Sabah, Sarawak and Brunei. Now, regarding Sabah:

In 1846, the island of Labuan on the west coast of Sabah was ceded to Britain by the Sultan of Brunei and in 1848 it became the British Crown Colony of North Borneo.[17][18] Following a series of transfers, the rights to North Borneo were transferred to Alfred Dent, whom in 1881 formed the British North Borneo Provisional Association Ltd (predecessor to British North Borneo Company).[19] In the following year, the British North Borneo Company was formed and Kudat was made its capital. In 1883 the capital was moved to Sandakan. In 1885, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany signed the Madrid Protocol of 1885, which recognised the sovereignty of Spain in the Sulu Archipelago in return for the relinquishment of all Spanish claims over North Borneo.[20] In 1888 North Borneo became a protectorate of the United Kingdom.

So, as of 1885, all Spanish claims are renounced and abandoned, and a treaty between the United Kingdom, Spain and Germany signs off, and 1888, North Borneo is a protectorate. Where is Japan's window of opportunity to purchase? The British are not in the business of selling protectorates.

Now, let's turn to Sarawak:

James Brooke was appointed Rajah by the Sultan of Brunei on 18 August 1842. Brooke ruled the territory, later expanded, across the western regions of Sarawak around Kuching until his death in 1868. His nephew Charles Anthoni Johnson Brooke became Rajah after his death; he was succeeded on his death in 1917 by his son, Charles Vyner Brooke, with the condition that Charles should rule in consultation with his brother Bertram Brooke.[8] The Sarawak territories were greatly enlarged under the Brooke dynasty, mostly at the expense of areas nominally under the control of Brunei. In practice Brunei had only controlled strategic river and coastal forts in much of the lost territory, so most of the gain was at the expense of Muslim warlords and of the de facto independence of local tribes.

The Brooke dynasty ruled Sarawak for a hundred years and became famous as the "White Rajahs", accorded a status within the British Empire similar to that of the rulers of Indian princely states.

I don't see the British walking away or selling out the Brook Dynasty. I'm sorry, it just doesn't seem feasible.

In the 1880s, as the decline of the Bruneian Empire continued, and Brunei lost much of its territory to the ruling White Rajahs of the neighbouring Kingdom of Sarawak. Sultan Hashim Jalilul Alam Aqamaddin appealed to the British to stop further encroachment.[34] The "Treaty of Protection" was negotiated by Sir Hugh Low and signed into effect on 17 September 1888. The treaty did state that the Sultan "could not cede or lease any territory to foreign powers without British consent" – but it also enabledBritain's control over Brunei's external affairs and made it a British protectorate (which continued until 1984).[6] When the Kingdom of Sarawak annexed Brunei's Pandaruan district in 1890, the British did not take any action to stop it, as they did not regard either Brunei or the Kingdom of Sarawak as 'foreign' (per the Treaty of Protection). This final annexation by Sarawak left Brunei with its current small land mass and separation into two parts.[35]

All cites are from the Wikipedia, for what they're worth.

So what's left?

Is there anything to justify this notion that Japan could simply buy these territories?

And assuming that Japan has gold... well, what did they use it for in OTL? I would expect that Japan would be producing the same amounts of gold, more or less in this timeline as in OTL. In OTL, these gold resources were used for something somewhere. You're talking about diverting from that resource. Assuming that Japan could magic up gold, how much would they need?

As for this:

As for land availability in the Philippines, I was able to find that the total acreage under cultivation increased OTL in the Philippines from 2.28 million hectares to 7.7 million hectares with an average farm size of 3.5 hectares.

An interesting statistic. To be honest, I've only been able to open one of your links, and that was for a 40 page paper examining the issues of the imposition of American land tenures which was pretty tough going. I'm assuming that your reference to increase of acreage is from the period 1903 to 1918? That seems to be the yardstick. From the little I could make of the paper, at best, land usage doubled during that time. But that doubling was also brought about by increase in population, and the development of infrastructure which opened cultivation areas. Your one million Japanese settlers are going to be competing with indigenous Phillipino for the same land, and many of the factors such as infrastructure improvements will facilitate Philippino expansion.

This provides ample scope (once independence movements are suppressed) for at least 1 million farm families from Japan to gain land in the Philippines.

Suppressing the independence movement is easier said than done. The Spaniards could not do it. The Americans took a decade.
 
Last edited:
Japan diverting its meagre resources into the Philippines while confronting the Qing Empire in the Korean peninsula?

Hardly thinkable in my opinion. Japan at the time was too much focused to the Peninsula.
 
Foreign Intervention

At least, with the Phil's. in the way, they won't dare pressure the Japanese to give up on Manchuria.
 
There could be an interesting twist for their reasoning. A book called "Conversation of Three Drunkards" laid out a case for Japan to begin expansion, essentially into China but overall as a source of strength and resources against the West. Perhaps the Philippines become a compromise - create an early equivalent to the Co-Prosperity Sphere where puppet governments rule over nominally independent or very lightly governed colonies, set an example by treating the people well (at least a lot more than most European powers would, not necessarily as equals) and say 'hey we remember what it was like only 30 years ago, now let us help you and be partners in the long-run'. Pull it off the right way and Japan avoids a lot of the ill will generated in much of Asia while potentially gaining access to significant resources.
 
Short of loss in a war, it's not plausible for Catholic Spain to sell these islands to a non-Christian power. Getting them sold to a Protestant power is challenging enough as it is.
 
Top