1894 - Japan buys the Philippines

[katchen]

I disagree Eliphas8. The East Indies was where the Japanese were getting their fuel. And without the Americans, the French and Dutch were finished. Even if and when Hitler was defeated it would have been by the USSR and a Communist Netherlands and France were not going to get Indochina and Indonesia back. And the British were badly weakened by the war as well. Too badly weakened to take on Japan--and the indigenous people, most of whom Japan was going to give their independence as long as they would act as Japanese allies. Borneo, relatively underpopulated, I think Japan would keep and settle with Japanese. As the Japanese would do with New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and New Hebrides. And no, the Japanese did not want to conquer Australia!! Not even Northern Australia.
Those independent allied governments would be no more and no less Japanese puppets than the postwar Metaxa government in Greece was an American puppet. Or Trujillo in the Dominican Republic. Or Vargas in Brazil. Some of those governments, such as in Siam already existed. Others, like Chandra Bose's RSS regime in India were waiting in the wings. All had followings in their country.
One of the neat things about AH is that it enables us to unlearn a lot of what was taught to us as history in high school that is pure propaganda. The fact is that for all their faults the Japanese were to a degree, greatly admired in East and Southeast Asia, simply because they kicked the Tuans and Mems and Pukka Sahibs out of their countries. Given the opportunity, this time, the Japanese would not blow that admiration by attempting to colonize and micromanage every country they occupied during the war. It was unrealistic and Japan needed allies who recognized her hegemony, not more enemies--and many, including Emperor Hirohito knew it. What Japan was after was it's own Monroe Doctrine in Asia. (Which by the way is what China wants now, but China , bigger and as overbearing as Japan on her worst days is much more scary to people around it than Japan was during WWII.). Nobody wants the loss of freedom that would result from China making the rules.

 

[eliphas8]

Katchen you have said stuff like that several times but the problem is that's not how Japan rolled. They wheren't reasonable about the situation in their colonies and where so convinced they could do anything they tried to conquer China by themselves. I really don't believe they honestly intended to set those colonies in Asia they conquered free (or atleast any more free than Manchukuo was). And really you are kind of stepping just onto the side of apollogizing for their actions in World War II, just because it goes against what they teach in high school doesn't make it right and frankly Japan was hated enough in South East Asia that to this day the people of south east asia still hold a vitriolic hatred for their actions in the colonial period.

 

[Simreeve]

Japanese occupation of Borneo which they took it from the British by force already happened in OTL.

"already" by our own time, and when Britain also had to worry about the Germans & Italians, yes: "already" at a date much closer to that at which they would have purchased the Philippines from Spain, which is what we seemed to be talking about at the stage when I made my previous post, not feasible... Not unless Britain was facing serious problems elswehere at the relevant date too, anyway, which isn't a factor that had previously been mentioned here.

 

[Vingilótë]

Katchen you have said stuff like that several times but the problem is that's not how Japan rolled. They wheren't reasonable about the situation in their colonies and where so convinced they could do anything they tried to conquer China by themselves. I really don't believe they honestly intended to set those colonies in Asia they conquered free (or atleast any more free than Manchukuo was). And really you are kind of stepping just onto the side of apollogizing for their actions in World War II, just because it goes against what they teach in high school doesn't make it right and frankly Japan was hated enough in South East Asia that to this day the people of south east asia still hold a vitriolic hatred for their actions in the colonial period.

To add to this; I recall reading that in many parts of Asia; Imperial Japan holds the same status that Nazis hold in most of Central and Eastern Europe, and are actually considered worse by many. To them, the Nazis killed a lot of white people on another continent, the Japanese killed a lot of them.

 

[Namayan]

Because Japan was fighting outside it's means on borrowed time. Had the US not participated they would still have run out of fuel eventually and been too weakened by the losses in China and Indochina to be able to adequitely defend the Islands when the British and French come for their reckoning.

katchen already explained that the Japanese were already getting their oil from Borneo. First of all, the japanese would not need to go to Indo China if the OP timeline is followed. So the French is taken out of the equation. Even if Japan had to fight the French and the British, the Japanese can still win against both of them with the right political gestures to British/French conquered population(less brutality, total independence from britain/france) and a very different military thinking(focus on Aircraft Carriers and Submarines).

"already" by our own time, and when Britain also had to worry about the Germans & Italians, yes: "already" at a date much closer to that at which they would have purchased the Philippines from Spain, which is what we seemed to be talking about at the stage when I made my previous post, not feasible... Not unless Britain was facing serious problems elswehere at the relevant date too, anyway, which isn't a factor that had previously been mentioned here.

If we place a one on one scenario, and consider some factors like local population of Sabah contains majority Dayaks and Filipinos. By establishing in this timeline that Northern Borneo will be attacked, Philippines would be assimilated to Japan to have any sign of Causus Belli for Japan to take Sabah/Northern Borneo.

Do you know how near Tawi Tawi, Philippines is from Sabah? Even Malaysia's modern navy cannot even intercept old boats going in and out from it, as proof of the recent turmoils there wherein Sulu Sultanates soldiers went there without Malaysia noticing it.

The Japanese have the resources to take on the British one on one.

The British hard the largest fleet in the world at the start of world war 2. But the Japanese had the largest Aircraft carrier fleet in the world when Japan entered World War 2. Difference in way of thinking and tactics of Britain and Japan would result for the Japanese doing an asymmetric thinking much like they did with Jeune École doctrine (Russo-Jap war) or a WW2 naval doctrine employing a larger Aircraft Carrier and Submarine fleet compared to a British focused on Battleships/Destroyers/Cruisers.

To add to this; I recall reading that in many parts of Asia; Imperial Japan holds the same status that Nazis hold in most of Central and Eastern Europe, and are actually considered worse by many. To them, the Nazis killed a lot of white people on another continent, the Japanese killed a lot of them.

Yes, this is true Japanese killed a lot in OTL. However, in order for Japan to go to Borneo, they need to pacify the Philippines which require them to accept the demands of the Philippine Propaganda Movement. Otherwise, Japan would be stuck in pacifying the Philippines and not enough resources to challenge the British in Borneo.

If you guys do not know, At one point in time during the 1930s, Japan accepted as immigrants expelled Jews from Europe until the more militaristic faction in the Japanese government took over and allied with Nazi Germany.

So a more benevolent Japan is very possible scenario as long as the right people are leading the Japanese Government.

 

[Brady Kj]

Would Japan be able and inclined to buy, rent, or ally itself with Northern Borneo?

 

[Simreeve]

If we place a one on one scenario, and consider some factors like local population of Sabah contains majority Dayaks and Filipinos. By establishing in this timeline that Northern Borneo will be attacked, Philippines would be assimilated to Japan to have any sign of Causus Belli for Japan to take Sabah/Northern Borneo.

So your suggested Japanese takeover of Sabah is several decades after their acquisition of the Philippines, rather than much closer to the latter event in time? I agree that that does work a bit better for Japan in terms of their own development relative to the British. On the other hand, of course, it means that North Borneo has been recognised as a British protectorate for longer too.

Do you know how near Tawi Tawi, Philippines is from Sabah? Even Malaysia's modern navy cannot even intercept old boats going in and out from it, as proof of the recent turmoils there wherein Sulu Sultanates soldiers went there without Malaysia noticing it.

In the event of Japan invading North Borneo, do you really think that the British would limit their actions to trying to block that passage? Try a naval blocakde between the Philippines and Japan, and attacks against Japanese trade elsewhere, too..

The Japanese have the resources to take on the British one on one.

The British hard the largest fleet in the world at the start of world war 2. But the Japanese had the largest Aircraft carrier fleet in the world when Japan entered World War 2. Difference in way of thinking and tactics of Britain and Japan would result for the Japanese doing an asymmetric thinking much like they did with Jeune École doctrine (Russo-Jap war) or a WW2 naval doctrine employing a larger Aircraft Carrier and Submarine fleet compared to a British focused on Battleships/Destroyers/Cruisers.

If the Japanese have been in the Philippines for decades then Britain has been paying even more attention to them during those decades than it did IOTL: You can't count on the TTL RN automatically being the same as the OTL one... or on Britain having as little land-based aviation in the region as IOTL, either.


EDIT: Additional Thoughts.

You're now talking about Japan moving against British North Borneo in the late '30s or early '40s, with both empires having armed forces comparable to those that their OTL equivalents had around that date, yes? But with a POD in 1894, consider all of the factors that might change the correlation of forces away from the OTL pattern:
Does the kinder, gentler Japan that you're invoking to explain how it assimilates the Philippines successfully still get involved in a Sino-Japanese War and then a Russo-Japanese War at about the same dates as IOTL? Does it stay out of WW1, especially if (as seems likely) it bought Spain's colonies in Micronesia as part of the package and there are therefore fewer German colonies around to seize? If WW1 still features a Russian Revolution, then does Japan still intervene in eastern Russia? If there's still a Washington Naval Treaty (or close equivalent) then doesn't a neutral Japan probably face even stricter limits under that (relative to both the British Empire and the USA) than a former-Ally Japan did IOTL... or the attempt at creating a treaty fail altogether which could also mean a stronger RN? Especially if Japan wasn't a WW1 ally, and still builds up its forces as IOTL, doesn't its presence in the Philippines encourage the European nations with colonies in the region to build up their own defences thereabouts more than IOTL too? What's happening in Europe itself during these decades? Does a pro-independence movement still develop in the Philippines, perhaps (especially if nobody else is interested in the possibility) with Bolshevik backing? Does "kinder, gentler Japan" still get involved in China during the 1920s/30s? Does "kinder, gentler Japan" still get taken over by militarists during the late 1920s/early 1930s? If such a takeover does occur, doesn't that probably mean stricter policies in the Philippines and thus more unrest for Japan to have to deal with there? If such a takeover doesn't occur, doesn't that make Japan attempting to seize British North Borneo less likely?

 

[Brady Kj]

It seems to me that Japan wouldn't be able to successfully take Northern Borneo by force, and that Britain would only be interested in letting Japan have it if nobody knows there's oil there. It also seems to me that Japan wouldn't be kinder and gentler from taking the Philippines unless it also takes a place with oil, and therefore has a comfortable supply of resources.

Is there something I don't know about?

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

What era is relevant when natural gas becomes important? Because IOTL there are large natural gas deposits in the Philippines, particularly in the Spratlys. But in case Japan buys the Philippines from Spain, can they also expand into the OTL Spratlys?

 

[mosodake]

I'm skeptical of the Japanese population displacing the Phillipino, or dramatically Japanese-ing them.

Like it or not, the two sets of Islands are in profoundly different climactic zones, rainfall zones, seasonal zones. The biological potential, particularly crops and plants and many domestic animals are quite different, and the Phillipines are host to various tropical diseases.

Southern Japan is almost tropical. In the time period being considered, most of the major diseases in the Philippines were also widespread in Japan. Possibly more widespread considering the higher overall population density. As far as domestic animals are considered, I am not aware of any in the Philippines that are not also found in some part of Japan.

The bottom line is that Japanese Agriculture won't work and can't compete there without dramatic alterations, and its going to be competing with more effective indigenous agriculture. Japanese people are going to find the place hot, wet, uncomfortable and prone to disease, so settlement is not going to be popular.

Why would Japanese agriculture not work? Japanese agriculture is only marginally different from Taiwanese agriculture, and Taiwanese agriculture works very well throughout the island, the southern part of which is similar in climate to the Philippines. Most of the main carbohydrate sources for Japan are tropical plants (rice, taro, sweet potato, yams), and are major components of the Filipino diet as well. Both countries inherited the same agricultural package (with modifications) from the Asian mainland. The only major alteration that might be necessary would be to shift to local varieties of the same crops. Japan in the summer is hot, wet, and humid. Disease and insect pressures are extremely high--probably not all that different from the Philippines.

 

[katchen]

katchen already explained that the Japanese were already getting their oil from Borneo. First of all, the japanese would not need to go to Indo China if the OP timeline is followed. So the French is taken out of the equation. Even if Japan had to fight the French and the British, the Japanese can still win against both of them with the right political gestures to British/French conquered population(less brutality, total independence from britain/france) and a very different military thinking(focus on Aircraft Carriers and Submarines).



If we place a one on one scenario, and consider some factors like local population of Sabah contains majority Dayaks and Filipinos. By establishing in this timeline that Northern Borneo will be attacked, Philippines would be assimilated to Japan to have any sign of Causus Belli for Japan to take Sabah/Northern Borneo.

Do you know how near Tawi Tawi, Philippines is from Sabah? Even Malaysia's modern navy cannot even intercept old boats going in and out from it, as proof of the recent turmoils there wherein Sulu Sultanates soldiers went there without Malaysia noticing it.

The Japanese have the resources to take on the British one on one.

The British hard the largest fleet in the world at the start of world war 2. But the Japanese had the largest Aircraft carrier fleet in the world when Japan entered World War 2. Difference in way of thinking and tactics of Britain and Japan would result for the Japanese doing an asymmetric thinking much like they did with Jeune École doctrine (Russo-Jap war) or a WW2 naval doctrine employing a larger Aircraft Carrier and Submarine fleet compared to a British focused on Battleships/Destroyers/Cruisers.



Yes, this is true Japanese killed a lot in OTL. However, in order for Japan to go to Borneo, they need to pacify the Philippines which require them to accept the demands of the Philippine Propaganda Movement. Otherwise, Japan would be stuck in pacifying the Philippines and not enough resources to challenge the British in Borneo.

If you guys do not know, At one point in time during the 1930s, Japan accepted as immigrants expelled Jews from Europe until the more militaristic faction in the Japanese government took over and allied with Nazi Germany.

So a more benevolent Japan is very possible scenario as long as the right people are leading the Japanese Government.

Yes, that is a fascinating story. One can read about it in "The Fugu Plan" by Marvin Tokayer www.amazon.com/The-Fugu-Plan-Untold-Japanese/.../083480350X . Even after WWII began and Japan closed access from the USSR, the Japanese never mistreated the Jews they accepted. On the other hand though, a number of Jews damn near starved to death along with all the other Europeans in the Dutch East Indies in Japanese internment camps near Bandung, Java. I knew a woman in Australia whose uncle was one of thosw who almost starved.

 

[Namayan]

doesn't that make Japan attempting to seize British North Borneo less likely?

For acceptance of the Filipinos of Japanese occupation, demands must be immediate or face armed resistance.

Takin northern Borneo can be dealt politically/military or financially by 1894. If military option, Japan can focus on torpedo boats, subs, smaller ships while we know the british focuses on dreadnoughts/battleships. The most likely will happen is Japan cancels the rent of Britain in northern Borneo. Does everyone even know the British were paying rent to sulu sultanate until they left Malaysia? Nowadays, the Malaysia government is still paying rent to the sulu sultanate.

The military option can still happen later where Japan would have the military advantage over Britain. Whatever happens, if the Japanese do not take Sabah/northern Borneo 1894, they will stiill take it later on ww2 or by konfrontasi or even today either by force or peaceful means due to the landlord status being held by the sulu sultanate which will pass on to Japan upon appeasing all Filipinos/Sulu.

For an interesting note, if Japan does control Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines and northern Borneo, Japan would have almost triple the land area of OTL Japan and almost the same population as OTL USA. So there is a possibility that TTL Japan would have the same economic size as OTL USA. So the impact of Japan in world events including ww2 may be different.

What era is relevant when natural gas becomes important? Because IOTL there are large natural gas deposits in the Philippines, particularly in the Spratlys. But in case Japan buys the Philippines from Spain, can they also expand into the OTL Spratlys?

Late 19th century to early 20th century. But those deposits aren't sufficient for Japan. You really need at least Sabah to fill those industrial needs of the early 20th century. Yes, Japan might expand to spratlys especially if they turn out as one of the superpowers in ttl. It is too near the Philippines and northern Borneo for another power controlling it. In military strategic sense, Spratlys for the Philipines is like Korea for Japan.

Yes, that is a fascinating story. One can read about it in "The Fugu Plan" by Marvin Tokayer www.amazon.com/The-Fugu-Plan-Untold-Japanese/.../083480350X . Even after WWII began and Japan closed access from the USSR, the Japanese never mistreated the Jews they accepted. On the other hand though, a number of Jews damn near starved to death along with all the other Europeans in the Dutch East Indies in Japanese internment camps near Bandung, Java. I knew a woman in Australia whose uncle was one of thosw who almost starved.

Yes, the good and the bad happened. But, we just pointed out that Japan treatment of others is varied and would be dependent on who is leading in Tokyo.

 

[DValdron]

Southern Japan is almost tropical. In the time period being considered, most of the major diseases in the Philippines were also widespread in Japan. Possibly more widespread considering the higher overall population density. As far as domestic animals are considered, I am not aware of any in the Philippines that are not also found in some part of Japan.

Why would Japanese agriculture not work? Japanese agriculture is only marginally different from Taiwanese agriculture, and Taiwanese agriculture works very well throughout the island, the southern part of which is similar in climate to the Philippines. Most of the main carbohydrate sources for Japan are tropical plants (rice, taro, sweet potato, yams), and are major components of the Filipino diet as well. Both countries inherited the same agricultural package (with modifications) from the Asian mainland. The only major alteration that might be necessary would be to shift to local varieties of the same crops. Japan in the summer is hot, wet, and humid. Disease and insect pressures are extremely high--probably not all that different from the Philippines.

I can stand to be corrected.

 

[DValdron]

I think that the problem I am seeing is that many are positing the simultaneous existence of two different Japans.

The first Japan is the 'kinder gentler' version which somehow takes the Philippines and grants sufficient local independence and tolerance as to defuse the local independence movements which erupted in the late stages of the Spanish Occupation and went on to ferociously resist the American Occupation for a decade.

This Japan will in many ways act quite unlike the historical Japan of the era which was often quite racist, intolerant and brutal to subject peoples like the Taiwanese, the Koreans, the Manchurians, even its own Ainu minority.

But who knows. Anything is possible.

But then, somehow, a second irreconcilable Japan exists simultaneous to this one. This is an aggressive, expansionist, militaristic Japan. This Japan will proceed to colonize the Philippines with Japanese people, in no way upsetting or displacing local Philippinos. It will proceed to secure its interests by picking fights with and winning against European colonial powers, specifically Britain, at the height of their power.

I dunno.

Recognizing that there were a diversity of views and opinions in the Japanese government and Japanese society is one thing. That does not imply a heterodoxy of policy.

 

[Vingilótë]

I think that the problem I am seeing is that many are positing the simultaneous existence of two different Japans.

The first Japan is the 'kinder gentler' version which somehow takes the Philippines and grants sufficient local independence and tolerance as to defuse the local independence movements which erupted in the late stages of the Spanish Occupation and went on to ferociously resist the American Occupation for a decade.

This Japan will in many ways act quite unlike the historical Japan of the era which was often quite racist, intolerant and brutal to subject peoples like the Taiwanese, the Koreans, the Manchurians, even its own Ainu minority.

But who knows. Anything is possible.

But then, somehow, a second irreconcilable Japan exists simultaneous to this one. This is an aggressive, expansionist, militaristic Japan. This Japan will proceed to colonize the Philippines with Japanese people, in no way upsetting or displacing local Philippinos. It will proceed to secure its interests by picking fights with and winning against European colonial powers, specifically Britain, at the height of their power.

I dunno.

Recognizing that there were a diversity of views and opinions in the Japanese government and Japanese society is one thing. That does not imply a heterodoxy of policy.

I think one thing interesting to note is that this 'schziophrenic Japan' does bring to mind the propaganda campaign waged by Japan during the Second World War. During the war, for example, it's official claim was that it had gone to war for the defense of East Asia against the white man, and it had made token gestures towards the proclamation of independent states in South Asia, including the Philippines. There was some idea in Japan's propaganda that the people of East Asia were to all work together towards this goal, which would mean some peoples would provide resources, some peoples would provide labor, and those people who betrayed the cause of Asia would have to be "disciplined" by Japan.

In rather sharp contrast to reality, however, the Japanese plan actually amounted to little more than binding the various states of Asia into Japanese satellite states; provision of resources was actually little more than a byword for open plunder, provision of labor meant that millions of people were carried off into slavery (the vast majority of whom never returned home), and the discipline itself resulted in the deaths of millions, not to mention countless other disgusting crimes.

The fundamental problem springs from the fact that people ignore the fact that rarely if ever does a country expend what can easily be a phenomenal amount of blood and treasure for the sake of other countries, and arguably only at phantom benefits for itself. I am not accusing anyone of being militarist Japan apologists, but fundamentally, when a country bothers going through the trouble of spending so much blood and treasure, it is not likely to be doing so solely for the self-interest of others. To assume as much, of a country which in addition to having spent the aforementioned, and which furthermore, already had an extremely vocal segment proclaiming the overcrowdedness of their country, where racial rhetoric was also playing a major role in justifying expansion, where by the militarist era, Japan was also already convinced (at least partly accurately) of a critical shortage of resources and need for strategic depth, most of which the leadership figured could also be gotten from other countries, is asking a bit much.

 

[katchen]

Firstly, the circumstances are markedly different in 1894 than they are 44 years later in 1940. OTL. The Filipinos, for example, have increased in number from 7 million to 16.5 million due to a combination of better sanitation and economic growth under American rule. (The population of the Philippines may pass 100 million this year). Japan cannot overwhelm the Philippines with colonists in 1940 the way they did in 1894. Borneo, maybe, but not the Philippines.
Secondly, what Japan would be doing was not particularly unkind by the sandards of 1894--the year of Wounded Knee in the United States. And they won't be encountering the ferocity of resistance that Japan encountered from Filipinos in 1941-44 OTL or even the United States did fromAguinaldo 1898-1901, since that rebellion is not as well developed and will not be recieving any support from abroad.
As for Borneo, the Japanese may not need to take any of it from the British by force. Nor will they want to do so. Don[t forget that this is the same Great Britain that negotiated away Northeast New Guinea , retaining only Papua as a buffer to Australia and the Soomon Islands. Sabah and Sarawak are low on Great Britain 's list of priorities or they would not still be company owned. Labuan Island is rather more important to Great Britain, as is the Sultanate of Brunei, itself. Those, the UK will insist on keeping. Any more Japanese expansion in the area will have to come by pacifying parts of the East Indies before the Dutch can get to them. Places like Sestern New Guinea. If the Japanese follow the German lead and simply build a colony at Hollandia Bay, leaving Merauke to the Dutch and not craowding Australia, there should be little problem with the UK there. Or other places like Eastern Borneo or northern Sulawesi or some of the as yet unoccupied Moluccas. I just haven't got hold of that detailed an island by island TL of when the Duch finally finished ocupying the East Indies to be able to definitely say where. But I do know that in 1894 th4e Dtutch had not completed fcolonizing the Dutch East Indies. That would not be finished until 1910 OTL.

Of course by the 1940s the Philippines were not going to be content to be Japan's puppet. The Philippine leadership was not content to be an American Protectorate any longer than until it's 1946 independence date either. Nobody in East and Southeast Asia wanted to be anybody's puppet government, including postwar Japan and South (or North) Korea. And thanks to the rivalry between the US and the Ussr and China, nobody has had to. More than anything else, it is the freedom of East and Southeast Asian nations to triangulate between the US and now China that has enabled them to grow economically and secure good terms for themselves that permit economic growth. And of course they are at it again, tilting toward the US to resist

 

[DValdron]

Firstly, the circumstances are markedly different in 1894 than they are 44 years later in 1940. OTL. The Filipinos, for example, have increased in number from 7 million to 16.5 million due to a combination of better sanitation and economic growth under American rule. (The population of the Philippines may pass 100 million this year). Japan cannot overwhelm the Philippines with colonists in 1940 the way they did in 1894.

There were only what... 40 million Japanese in 1894. They're not producing a population surplus sufficient to overwhelm the Phillipines.

And you do realize that colonizing the locals with your surplus population is generally not well received by the locals? Hasn't really worked out well anywhere.

Secondly, what Japan would be doing was not particularly unkind by the sandards of 1894--the year of Wounded Knee in the United States. And they won't be encountering the ferocity of resistance that Japan encountered from Filipinos in 1941-44 OTL or even the United States did fromAguinaldo 1898-1901, since that rebellion is not as well developed and will not be recieving any support from abroad.

Excuse me, but you're kidding right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Insurrection#Philippine_Revolution

The Philippine Revolution began in August 1896, upon the discovery of the anti-colonial secret organization Katipunan by the Spanish authorities. The Katipunan, led by Andrés Bonifacio, was a liberationist movement and shadow government spread throughout much of the islands whose goal was independence from Spain through armed revolt. In a mass gathering in Caloocan, the Katipunan leaders organized themselves into a revolutionary government and openly declared a nationwide armed revolution.[1] Bonifacio called for a simultaneous coordinated attack on the capital Manila. This attack failed, but the surrounding provinces also rose up in revolt. In particular, rebels in Cavite led by Emilio Aguinaldo won early victories.

The Katipunin organization was founded in 1892, but benefitted from several decades of previous Philippino nationalism and insurgencies. By the middle of 1896, the Phillipines were heavily infiltrated by a secret organization which had established chapters and forces in much of the provinces. That doesn't come into being overnight. That takes time, organization and commitment from a lot of people.

That's what the Japanese are buying when they purchase the Philippines in 1894. A secret, parallel state rapidly developing and readying to make its break out. A whole population of people, an organized population of people who are not going to accept Japanese colonists or second class citizenship in their own homes.

During the Spanish American war, the Philippino's pretty much beat the Spanish on their own. The Philippine insurrection that followed on after the Spanish one, lasted for years, and by some reckoning, as much as 10% of the population was killed. That's not a docile people going down easily.

It's entirely possible that the Philippino's might well revolt when faced with a new alien occupier like Japan, particularly one that has any tendency to be harsh. And while Japan might be as or more ruthless than the US, they don't have the US wealth to sustain an occupation.

On top of that, I'm not at all sure that the Philippino resistance would have no international support. I could see several European powers, or America, supporting an insurrection for various reasons, running from sentimentality, to free trade, to hope of territorial gains, to just keeping the Japanese from nosing around Borneo.

You can't wish this stuff away. You have to deal with it.

As for Borneo, the Japanese may not need to take any of it from the British by force. Nor will they want to do so.

Well, considering that little project would have 'military disaster' written all over it.... I think that the Japanese would want to avoid taking by foce.

Don[t forget that this is the same Great Britain that negotiated away Northeast New Guinea , retaining only Papua as a buffer to Australia and the Soomon Islands.

Yeah, but they negotiated away to Germany, and they were on pretty good terms with Germany at the time, and Papua and the Solomon's were seen as pretty worthless.

Sabah and Sarawak are low on Great Britain 's list of priorities or they would not still be company owned.

But the fact that they're company owned is actually an obstacle to negotiating. The British government isn't going to negotiate away what it technically does not own directly. They'll think of the lawsuits...

 

[PoorBoy]

I see that opinions in this thread are diverse and all over the place, and for good reason: The time between 1894 and 1905 is a very critical moment in Japanese history, where one wrong move may send it the path of 20th Century China (OTL), and a series of very fortunate events may cause it to surpass the USA OTL.

In other words, this is a time period where Chaos Theory is jacked up a million-fold! Too many variables and too many possible outcomes.

We may as well end up with the Philippines and Japan as BFFs forever, or have them struggle against each other for 60 years, or even trigger WWI prematurely and end up with Hitler, Churchill, Mussolini, and Stalin all dead, and WWII may not even happen.

The best course of action, of course, is to make a TL to flesh this out. And of course, if we have 2 different people writing TLs on this, we may have completely different outcomes, depending on whether Japan goes the 'benevolent' or 'evil' route, or the European powers gang up on Japan, or one of the Great Powers signs an alliance with Japan.

Sorry to digress.

 

[Namayan]

There were only what... 40 million Japanese in 1894. They're not producing a population surplus sufficient to overwhelm the Phillipines.

They do not need to overwhelm the Filipinos. The longest time that Japanization of Philippines would happen is 40 years. In OTL 1901, Filipinos did not know how to speak English. The Americans changed both the linguistic and cultural aspect of the Philippines by World War 2.

You can't wish this stuff away. You have to deal with it.

The Katipunan can stop existing once the Propaganda movement's demands are met.

Of course this is a big if, if Japan accepts all the demands of the Propaganda movement. If Japan doesn't, any purchase of the Philippines would be met by force.

Well, considering that little project would have 'military disaster' written all over it.... I think that the Japanese would want to avoid taking by foce.

But the fact that they're company owned is actually an obstacle to negotiating. The British government isn't going to negotiate away what it technically does not own directly. They'll think of the lawsuits...

OTL 1894, British Borneo was still not a crown colony and was still under the British North Borneo Company. Japan can still impose its will to Sabah in behalf of Sulu .

But just to make it simpler and to take away all this debate on who will win if Japan invades Borneo or if even the British would even participate, the cheapest viable option really for Japan is just to buy Northern Borneo/Sabah from the British North Borneo Company.

The point I made several post ago was Japan had the means to take Northern Borneo by force since , with Philippine purchase, Northern Borneo was too near Japan's Mare Nostrum. So logistics will be very easy for Japan. Japan also had industrialized and had already a modern navy which its military doctrine was specifically made to defeat a more superior force, like the British.

 

[Faeelin]

Guys, why does Spain agree to selling its Catholic subjects to a non-white, non-Christian power?