1894 - Japan buys the Philippines

[katchen]

Or by massive re-education combined with submergence of the original population by an overwhelming majority of new settlers, which is what the Japanese will do in the Philippines. The Japanese will start by requiring all Filipino schoolchildren to learn Japanese. At some point, all Filipinos will be required to take Japanese names. Then maintain "kamifuda" (ancestral tablets) in their homes. Intermarriage with Japanese may occur, although this has not happened with Korean Japanese. It will go easier in less densely populated Borneo.

 

[eliphas8]

Or by massive re-education combined with submergence of the original population by an overwhelming majority of new settlers, which is what the Japanese will do in the Philippines. The Japanese will start by requiring all Filipino schoolchildren to learn Japanese. At some point, all Filipinos will be required to take Japanese names. Then maintain "kamifuda" (ancestral tablets) in their homes. Intermarriage with Japanese may occur, although this has not happened with Korean Japanese. It will go easier in less densely populated Borneo.

Why would it work any better in the Philipines than with Korea? The Philipines is similarly populous and restive (only with added touches of religious hatred from the catholic community in the Phillipines) and the landscape is absolutely perfect for guerrilla warfare.

 

[DValdron]

I'm skeptical of the Japanese population displacing the Phillipino, or dramatically Japanese-ing them.

Like it or not, the two sets of Islands are in profoundly different climactic zones, rainfall zones, seasonal zones. The biological potential, particularly crops and plants and many domestic animals are quite different, and the Phillipines are host to various tropical diseases.

The bottom line is that Japanese Agriculture won't work and can't compete there without dramatic alterations, and its going to be competing with more effective indigenous agriculture. Japanese people are going to find the place hot, wet, uncomfortable and prone to disease, so settlement is not going to be popular.

Most likely, you'll see a similar form of imperialism as the Spanish and Americans practiced - administrators and plantation landowners, some cultural domination, language enforcement, etc. The Japanese due to proximity and lack of other options will probably invest much much more heavily and have a more profound effect. But the Phillipines are going to mostly stay the Phillipines.

Still, the ripples and butterflies are huge... particularly if Japan or Germany picks up Guam as well. And there may be cultural imports into Japan from the Phillipines.

 

[Namayan]

Why would it work any better in the Philipines than with Korea? The Philipines is similarly populous and restive (only with added touches of religious hatred from the catholic community in the Phillipines) and the landscape is absolutely perfect for guerrilla warfare.

Philippines being rebellious vs Japan will only happen if the POD does not take to the account local Philippine education and impression.

Rebellion vs Japan will only happen if Japan treats the Filipinos the same way as the Spaniards did. So if Japan embraces the aims of Philippine Propaganda movement 1870-1890s, I doubt there would be any large rebellion.

So if the Japanese embraces the aims of the movement it may look like this (based on OTL version demanded from Spain):
1) Equal rights by Japanese and Filipinos
2) Assimilation of Philippines as province of Japan
3) Restoration of Philippine representation to Japanese Diet
4) Secularization of Churches/parishes and the clergy
5) Create a public school system independent of the friars
6) Guarantee individual liberties(freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom to assembly, freedom to petition for action on all complaints)
7) Equal opportunity for Filipinos and Japanese to enter government service;

Still, the ripples and butterflies are huge... particularly if Japan or Germany picks up Guam as well. And there may be cultural imports into Japan from the Phillipines.

Well, depends on what Spain considers Philippines. Guam and the rest of the Spanish East Indies were controlled by the Spanish governor general in Manila and after that the local rebels of the First Republic of the Philippines by the Guams representation in the local Congress before the American occupation.

The distinct division between Philippines vs Palau and Guam happened only when the USA won the Philippine-American war.

 

[dannythegreat]

So if the Japanese embraces the aims of the movement it may look like this (based on OTL version demanded from Spain):
1) Equal rights by Japanese and Filipinos
2) Assimilation of Philippines as province of Japan
3) Restoration of Philippine representation to Japanese Diet
4) Secularization of Churches/parishes and the clergy
5) Create a public school system independent of the friars
6) Guarantee individual liberties(freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom to assembly, freedom to petition for action on all complaints)
7) Equal opportunity for Filipinos and Japanese to enter government service;

This would work, however there is no way the Japanese ever grant so many rights to a colonized people. In Korea (which is much more similar culturally to Japan than the Philippines) the Japanese forced locals to adopt Japanese names, administrators were nearly all from Japan, and during WWII the Koreans were used as forced labour and sex slaves. So it seems pretty unlikely that they would be any fairer to the Filipinos.

 

[PoorBoy]

This would work, however there is no way the Japanese ever grant so many rights to a colonized people. In Korea (which is much more similar culturally to Japan than the Philippines) the Japanese forced locals to adopt Japanese names, administrators were nearly all from Japan, and during WWII the Koreans were used as forced labour and sex slaves. So it seems pretty unlikely that they would be any fairer to the Filipinos.

Well, how about the Japanese treating the Filipinos like the Taiwanese, and treating the islands as a 'model colony' like Taiwan?

 

[Vingilótë]

Well, how about the Japanese treating the Filipinos like the Taiwanese, and treating the islands as a 'model colony' like Taiwan?

Japanese rule over Taiwan still involved a healthy amount of repression, violence, Japanization, and general treatment of Taiwanese as second-class citizens.

 

[The Sandman]

So how likely is it that the USA goes to war in order to steal them, in this scenario?

After all, the Japanese aren't white. In the 1890s, that's kind of a big deal should you have something the US (or any European country) wants.

Might be an especially nasty one-two punch; the Triple Intervention forces Japan to relinquish significant gains from the Sino-Japanese War, followed by the white nations of Europe turning a blind eye when the equally white Americans grab the Philippines from the non-white Japanese.

 

[DValdron]

Why would the US want it.

 

[Brady Kj]

My assumption was that the Spanish American War would play out similarly to OTL, but with one less country having to suffer from it. Am I mistaken? Would the US fight against Japan instead, or in addition to Spain, to acquire East Asian ports?
Now, if the Philippines gets to live free of that war, and in peacetime isn't treated worse than the European powers, than this is a slightly better world that OTL. And if Japan somehow also peacefully obtains territory with oil, it may decides it's not worth the effort to fight to expand its empire, then we may be looking at a much better world, with fewer countries suffering when world wars occur. If it acquires Borneo, that would work nicely, but I'm not familiar with a connection between the Philippines and Borneo, other than proximity. Is Japan likely to get part of Borneo in the same purchase?

 

[DValdron]

Wasn't Cuba and Puerto Rico the key issues for the Spanish American war? Domination of the Caribbean?

I always had the impression that the Phillipines and Guam were literally afterthoughts. Is that incorrect? I believe initially Americans were somewhat conflicted as to whether they even wanted the Phillipines. So far as I know, acquiring a complex of Pacific Rain forest Islands was not part of deep American strategic thinking initially. The Americans were ideologically 'free traders'.

So I'm doubtful that the Americans might make a play for the Phillipines. Maybe the Germans, or the British or French, under some circumstances. But... Americans, doubtful.

There might be some blowback if a Spanish American War takes place. The Spanish will not be splitting their admittedly obsolete fleet between the Caribbean and the far Pacific, and might well have more troops, ammunition and supplies for Cuba and Puerto Rico and might well have more financial resources to fight the war effectively. That's assuming that a Spanish American war of some sort happens... not unlikely.

I'm quite interested, however, in how Phillipines ownership might re-direct Japanese political and economic priorities, and in particular Japanese expansionism.

One issue is that really, there's nowhere to go from the Phillipines - You have the Dutch West Indies, French Indochina, German New Guineau, Portugese Timor, the Pacific Islands are all divided up.

Would we see Japanese expansionism picking a fight with the Dutch? The Portugese? Would this divert the Japanese from their war with Russia? Change the timing of that War? Would it divert the Japanese from Korea? Unlikely? From China? It might well change the timing and goals of a China campaign.

How would the Japanese economy change if linked to the Phillipines. would the Phillipines change Japanese economic and political priorities? Would there be investment? What sort of investment? What infrastructure would the Japanese build there? Where would the capital come from? And would this represent a diversion of Capital from existing purposes? Would we see a less industrialized Japan? Or a more industrialized Phillipines? Would Japan be more aggressively mercantile and trade oriented?

 

[Brady Kj]

My understanding was that the goal of the war was to get Cuba and Puerto Rico. I do know that Americans were entirely conflicted about all of the territories during the entirety of the war. This was partly because many Americans didn't want to see the country turn into an empire, though they didn't seem to mind acquiring large territories when those territories are on the continent. Another reason they didn't want these territories was because they were full of brown people, and they were afraid those brown people could become citizens. I believe the Philippines were their least favorite. However, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that powerful people in the government intended to gain trading ports next to Asia.

 

[DValdron]

My understanding was that the goal of the war was to get Cuba and Puerto Rico. I do know that Americans were entirely conflicted about all of the territories during the entirety of the war. This was partly because many Americans didn't want to see the country turn into an empire, though they didn't seem to mind acquiring large territories when those territories are on the continent. Another reason they didn't want these territories was because they were full of brown people, and they were afraid those brown people could become citizens. I believe the Philippines were their least favorite. However, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that powerful people in the government intended to gain trading ports next to Asia.

Well, American policy was somewhat neurotic and conflicted. The goal was to get Cuba, but politics got so cross-eyed that they had to let it go. I don't think that there would be enough of a consensus to go after the Phillipines in any meaningful way. They have Hawaii as a pacific station. And the policy is Free Trade with China, Japan, etc.

 

[Namayan]

So it seems pretty unlikely that they would be any fairer to the Filipinos.

Well, it is possible that Japan will treat the Philippines differently from Korea. Philippines is already Westernized, educated in European way of life, most of the leaders are even educated in Europe. While Korea just came from the Korean empire and had already a bloody history with Japan pre 19th century which make the locals more resistant.

They be not fairer to the Filipinos but there is possibility that they might due to Philippines being in a highly different situation with Japan.

Japanese rule over Taiwan still involved a healthy amount of repression, violence, Japanization, and general treatment of Taiwanese as second-class citizens.

Taiwan was mostly Chinese. Japan has a very different treatment of the Chinese due to the history between the two.

One issue is that really, there's nowhere to go from the Phillipines - You have the Dutch West Indies, French Indochina, German New Guineau, Portugese Timor, the Pacific Islands are all divided up.

Would we see Japanese expansionism picking a fight with the Dutch? The Portugese? Would this divert the Japanese from their war with Russia? Change the timing of that War? Would it divert the Japanese from Korea? Unlikely? From China? It might well change the timing and goals of a China campaign.

How would the Japanese economy change if linked to the Phillipines. would the Phillipines change Japanese economic and political priorities? Would there be investment? What sort of investment? What infrastructure would the Japanese build there? Where would the capital come from? And would this represent a diversion of Capital from existing purposes? Would we see a less industrialized Japan? Or a more industrialized Phillipines? Would Japan be more aggressively mercantile and trade oriented?

This will really butterfly Japan's decision on China. With Philippines, Japan would not need to go to Manchuria and China for the Resources. With the acquisition of the Philippines, all the resources they need are already there except for oil and rubber, Which is available in Borneo.

The most plausible is Northern Borneo since Japan would have Causus Belli to acquire it, thru Sulu Sultanate. Either they repurchase it back from the British or take it by force.

For strategic purposes, Japan will still take Korea and the Sakhalin. With the Purchase of the Philippines, Japan will acquire all Spanish East Indies, which means Guam, Palau, Marianas Islands, etc. Expanding beyond those Pacific Islands would be a good question.

So a Russian war is still feasible because of Sakhalin.

With the above Scenario, World War 2 might be different for Japan, and they might not ally themselves with Axis powers, since Chiang Kai-Shek is closer to Nazi Germany and might align with the Axis instead, while the Japanese will be part of the Allies.

 

[katchen]

Japanese had no problem settling in Hawaii. And they were just working on plantations there with no chance of getting title to their own land. So settling in the tropics are not going to be a problem---particularly for Japanese from Kyushu, Shikoku and the Ryukyu Islands, when it comes to settling the Philippines.Japanese farmers would much rather migrate and have a chance at land of their own than have their wives keep on killing newborn babies if they cannot afford to raise them
(lest one think this statement is too outrageous, here is the source)
Mabiki: Infanticide and Population Growth in Eastern Japan, 1660-1950 [Hardcover]

Fabian Drixler (Author)




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by Fabian Drixler

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Publication Date: June 3, 2013
This book tells the story of a society reversing deeply held worldviews and revolutionizing its demography. In parts of eighteenth-century Japan, couples raised only two or three children. As villages shrank and domain headcounts dwindled, posters of child-murdering she-devils began to appear, and governments offered to pay their subjects to have more children. In these pages, the long conflict over the meaning of infanticide comes to life once again. Those who killed babies saw themselves as responsible parents to their chosen children. Those who opposed infanticide redrew the boundaries of humanity so as to encompass newborn infants and exclude those who would not raise them. In Eastern Japan, the focus of this book, population growth resumed in the nineteenth century. According to its village registers, more and more parents reared all their children. Others persisted in the old ways, leaving traces of hundreds of thousands of infanticides in the statistics of the modern Japanese state. Nonetheless, by 1925, total fertility rates approached six children per women in the very lands where raising four had once been considered profligate. This reverse fertility transition suggests that the demographic history of the world is more interesting than paradigms of unidirectional change would have us believe, and that the future of fertility and population growth may yet hold many surprises.)

If there is considerable Japanese migration to the Philippines and Borneo, assimilation of Filipinos and Borneans becomes much easier despite the differences in religion. Resistance to Japanization becomes as futile as the resistance of the Uighur and Tibetans to Sinicization OTL. And how much more territory Japan may attempt to acquire may depend upon how much more resources Japan actually needs after the mineral wealth of the Philippines and accessible parts of Borneo are developed.

 

[Brady Kj]

I wonder if Japan would be neutral in the world wars, and if those wars are similar, perhaps the US would be more involved in the second one than the first.

But that's only if they have enough oil to modernize as they want. I'm still not convinced that can happen, and I still don't see how the conquest of northern Borneo is plausible.

 

[katchen]

As you can see from these few paragraphs, the rights to North Borneo is owned by a company. It was only in 1888 that the British even established a protectorate over the place. It's just a matter for the Japanese of buying out the company and then persuading the Brits to part with North Borneo, which they might be willing to do.
(Beer please take note also. This could also affect your TL).



n 1865, the United States Consul to Brunei, Charles Lee Moses, obtained a 10-year lease for the territory of North Borneo from the Sultan of Brunei. However, the post-Civil War United States wanted nothing to do with Asian colonies, so Moses sold his rights to the Hong Kong-based American Trading Company of Borneo owned by Joseph William Torrey, Thomas Bradley Harris, Tat Cheong and possibly other Chinese merchants. Torrey began a settlement at the Kimanis River mouth, which he named Ellena. Attempts to find financial backing for the settlement were futile, and disease, death and desertion by the immigrant labourers led to the abandonment of the settlement towards the end of 1866. Harris died in 1866 and Torrey returned to America in 1877, he died in Boston, Massachusetts, in March 1884. With the imminent termination of the lease at hand in January 1875, Torrey managed to sell his rights to the Consul of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in Hong Kong, Baron Von Overbeck. Von Overbeck managed to get a 10-year renewal of the lease from the Temenggong of Brunei, and a similar treaty from the Sultan of Sulu on 22 January 1878. To finance his plans for North Borneo, Overbeck found financial backing from the Dent brothers (Alfred and Edward). However, he was unable to interest his government in the territory. After efforts to sell the territory to Italy for use as a penal colony, Von Overbeck withdrew in 1880, leaving Alfred Dent in control. Dent was supported by Sir Rutherford Alcock, and Admiral Sir Harry Keppel.
In July 1881, Alfred Dent and his brother formed the British North Borneo Provisional Association Ltd and obtained an official Royal Charter 1 November the same year. In May 1882, the North Borneo Chartered Company replaced the Provisional Association. Sir Rutherford Alcock became the first President, and Alfred Dent became Managing Director. In spite of some diplomatic protests by the Dutch, Spanish and Sarawak governments, the North Borneo Chartered Company proceeded to organize settlement and administration of the territory. The company subsequently acquired further sovereign and territorial rights from the sultan of Brunei, expanding the territory under control to the Putatan river (May 1884), the Padas district (November 1884), the Kawang river (February 1885), the Mantanani Islands (April 1885), and additional minor Padas territories (March 1898).
The Company established a foundation for economic growth in North Borneo by restoring peace to a land where piracy and tribal feuds had grown rampant. It abolished slavery and set up transport, health and education services for the people. Chinese immigrants were wooed to boost the small population of less than 100,000. Through the combined effort of the locals and immigrants, towns, farms, a timber industry, tobacco and rubber plantations began to thrive.
Protectorate of Britain[edit]





















In 1888, North Borneo became a protectorate of Great Britain, but its administration remained entirely in the hands of the North Borneo Chartered Company, with the crown reserving only control of foreign relations.

 

[Simreeve]

The most plausible is Northern Borneo since Japan would have Causus Belli to acquire it, thru Sulu Sultanate. Either they repurchase it back from the British or take it by force.

Ha. Ha. Ha.
No.

 

[Namayan]

I wonder if Japan would be neutral in the world wars, and if those wars are similar, perhaps the US would be more involved in the second one than the first.

But that's only if they have enough oil to modernize as they want. I'm still not convinced that can happen, and I still don't see how the conquest of northern Borneo is plausible.

Sabah is more feasible for faster occupation since there are Filipinos settled there more than Malays. It is still considered by the Sultanate of Sulu as part of Sultanate and still considered by Sulu as being only rented by the British even up today.

The rest of Borneo would require for Japan to create Causus Belli.

The resources of Japan are much closer than Britain. Besides taking of Borneo does not need to be 1894 since the OP stated only purchase of the Philippines in 1894.

In OTL, Japan already forced Britain out of Borneo. Had the Americans not participated WW2, it would have been permanent.

Ha. Ha. Ha.
No.

Japanese occupation of Borneo which they took it from the British by force already happened in OTL. Why not in an alternate timeline? This is the same rationality the British said when Singapore, British Malaya, British Borneo will never be conquered and the Japanese were inferior to the British in every way.

 

[eliphas8]

In OTL, Japan already forced Britain out of Borneo. Had the Americans not participated WW2, it would have been permanent.

Because Japan was fighting outside it's means on borrowed time. Had the US not participated they would still have run out of fuel eventually and been too weakened by the losses in China and Indochina to be able to adequitely defend the Islands when the British and French come for their reckoning.