1894 - Japan buys the Philippines

Vingilótë

Vingilótë

I recently read that in 1894, Yamagata Aritomo, one of the genro, made an offer to Spain to purchase the Philippines for 40 million pounds. Obviously, this deal did not go through.

My question is, is it likely at all that this deal goes through, and if so, what would be the consequences of the deal?
 

MarshalBraginsky

Banned
I forgot. So in this case has the First Sino-Japanese War started yet? If that is the case, then I don't see Yamagata wanting to break the treasure box for the Philippines. However, you might want to prevent the First Sino-Japanese War from breaking out if Yamagata's plans to purchase the Philippines were to succeed. Delaying that war would also delay the Hundred Days' Reform.
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

It's at Nicholas's coronation, on November 1, 1894, about halfway through the Sino-Japanese War.

Yeah, it seems like the war would probably torpedo any plans for such a large expenditure of money. Could a swap instead of a purchase be arranged, possibly with spoils of war?
 

Namayan

Zmflavius said:
I recently read that in 1894, Yamagata Aritomo, one of the genro, made an offer to Spain to purchase the Philippines for 40 million pounds. Obviously, this deal did not go through.

My question is, is it likely at all that this deal goes through, and if so, what would be the consequences of the deal?
Click to expand...

For Japan and Philippines side, the consequence would be how to deal with the Philippines. If we go by history, much like World War 2, Japan will sponsor an independent Philippines under its protection.

If you also look at WW2 as the basis, Japan will make Philippines more industry dependent than agriculture dependent since the Americans and Spaniards favored an agriculture dependent Philippines.

If Japan plays it cards right, the Filipinos might treat the Japanese as liberators from the Spanish.

Another possibility is that Philippines might fuse to Japan especially if Jose Rizal supports it to become a province of Japan as long as Filipinos are given equal rights to all other Japanese. This can be based on what Jose Rizal was asking for from the Spaniards during his trial, give us equal treatment or give us autonomy/independence.
 

katchen

Banned
Japan may be likely to attempt to industrialize and settle the Philippines. Don't forget: The Philippines at this time has only 7 million people and Japan has 45 million people (over 6 times as many). And the Philippines has these minerals:
nswer:
The Philippines are rich in mineral resources. Here's a list of the more common minerals found there:



  • Pyrite
  • Quartz
  • Gypsum
  • Barite
  • Sphalerite
  • Galena
  • Epidote
  • Molybdenite
  • Actinolite
  • Magnetite
  • Hematite
  • Gold
  • Graphite
  • Cinnabar
  • Copper
  • Platinum
  • Malachite
  • Nickel
  • Salt
  • Cobalt
  • And there is copper, coal and more molybdenum in North Borneo, which is company owned if Japan can get it and more coal in Sarawak, also company owned , by "Rajah" Brooke.
  • If Japan is busy in the Philippines it may not be all that interested in fighting a war with China.
 

Namayan

katchen said:
The Philippines are rich in mineral resources.
Click to expand...

Philippines has more resources than you listed. You forgot to list the most important resource for this time period, iron(to produce steel). The world's biggest Iron ore deposit is in the Philippines.

So, you are correct in saying that Japan may not even go to China since there would be no reason to go there for resource/financial reasons.

Hetalia said:
That is ASB impossible. Unless some Japanese would Geass him, he wouldn't like Japan.
Click to expand...

It is highly difficult scenario that would require certain and correct POD but it is not ASB.

In OTL, Jose Rizal was not asking for direct Independence from Spain right at the beginning but equal treatment.
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

katchen said:
Japan may be likely to attempt to industrialize and settle the Philippines. Don't forget: The Philippines at this time has only 7 million people and Japan has 45 million people (over 6 times as many). And the Philippines has these minerals:
nswer:
The Philippines are rich in mineral resources. Here's a list of the more common minerals found there:



  • Pyrite
  • Quartz
  • Gypsum
  • Barite
  • Sphalerite
  • Galena
  • Epidote
  • Molybdenite
  • Actinolite
  • Magnetite
  • Hematite
  • Gold
  • Graphite
  • Cinnabar
  • Copper
  • Platinum
  • Malachite
  • Nickel
  • Salt
  • Cobalt
  • And there is copper, coal and more molybdenum in North Borneo, which is company owned if Japan can get it and more coal in Sarawak, also company owned , by "Rajah" Brooke.
  • If Japan is busy in the Philippines it may not be all that interested in fighting a war with China.
Click to expand...
China has more resources..
 
Julius Vogel

Julius Vogel

Assuming this happens, at that price and given Japan was in the midst of it's own crash development phase, this could make Japan quite different, as it will be almost certainly be massively distracted from other events by the time and effort it will take to integrate and develop the Phillipines.
 

King Helü of Wu

Banned
Namayan said:
So, you are correct in saying that Japan may not even go to China since there would be no reason to go there for resource/financial reasons.
Click to expand...

Hurrah!
Good luck Japan, continue buying islands elsewhere, Indonesia and Hawaii are your next choices, maybe even a slice of Africa, PLEASE, just stay out of China's business.

When the Japanese Army struggles to combat malaria and dengue in the tropical jungles, Zhang Zhidong and Yuan Shikai silently build up China' new military and industrial capacities.

Thousands of Chinese students goes to Imperial Russia, USA, and France, bringing back scientific knowledge and moderate political views, not the political radicalism they have acquired in Japan, this would severely weaken the intellectual foundation of Marxism in China.

Most importantly, without devastation and humiliation brought by the Japanese, China is NEVER going to turn communist.

I remember starting one thread about the Largest Japanese Empire OUTSIDE China. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=263370
 

Mutzi

King Helü of Wu said:
Hurrah!

Thousands of Chinese students goes to Imperial Russia, USA, and France, bringing back scientific knowledge and moderate political views, not the political radicalism they have acquired in Japan, this would severely weaken the intellectual foundation of Marxism in China.
Click to expand...

I am not so sure about that. Where do you think the political radicalism in Japan came from? Marxism can enter China from the West as well, in certain places and times it was fairly popular.

The first Afghan communist for instance were nearly all educated in the US, in a particularly leftist university. And they had a chance too try it out once they were home. To the Soviets they turned later.
 

nikkythegreat

This would actually be a great timeline. ^_^
A Japan more focused on the pacific and asian islands.
A China that might actually reform (abiet a slower pace).
 
Vingilótë

Vingilótë

nikkythegreat said:
This would actually be a great timeline. ^_^
A Japan more focused on the pacific and asian islands.
A China that might actually reform (abiet a slower pace).
Click to expand...

Faster, I think, without Japan's active meddling. OTL, despite the warlord era, the ROC could have within 5-10 years well become a modern powerful nation.
 

katchen

Banned
Namayan said:
Philippines has more resources than you listed. You forgot to list the most important resource for this time period, iron(to produce steel). The world's biggest Iron ore deposit is in the Philippines.

So, you are correct in saying that Japan may not even go to China since there would be no reason to go there for resource/financial reasons.



It is highly difficult scenario that would require certain and correct POD but it is not ASB.

In OTL, Jose Rizal was not asking for direct Independence from Spain right at the beginning but equal treatment.
Click to expand...

No I didn't, actually. Hematite (Iron Ore) is on the list. And coal can be found at North Borneo. As can oil.
 

theelf234

Zmflavius said:
Faster, I think, without Japan's active meddling. OTL, despite the warlord era, the ROC could have within 5-10 years well become a modern powerful nation.
Click to expand...

The question is what the response of the Chinese Empire to a Japanese takeover of the Philippines. Of course, since it's not a Japanese annexation of Korea as in OTL which, from the Chinese POV, is a threat to security, the Chinese may be content with this (or even letting the Japanese have similar rights in the Philippines as the Portuguese and British did in Taiwan and Hong Kong/Macau). A possible Sino-Japanese alliance?

As a side note, I find this ironic:
"So by an extraordinary twist of history, the exploits of the Spanish conquistadores in America contributed to the health and survival of the Chinese Empire for the next two centuries."
Source: http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=7813

Also, even though this is a much earlier POD (in the 16th century to be specific), it presents an interesting case scenario:

http://www.samuelhawley.com/imjinarticle3.html (A Spanish proposal to conquer China)
 

thekingsguard

I think it's an interesting idea to explore for a TL - a Japan mostly content with integrating the Phillipines/Taiwan and the like into part of the national whole.
 

Tripwire

thekingsguard said:
I think it's an interesting idea to explore for a TL - a Japan mostly content with integrating the Phillipines/Taiwan and the like into part of the national whole.
Click to expand...

Integration of disparate areas into a national whole is one of those things that sounds good in theory but in reality is only accomplished with major ethnic cleansing or flooding with settlers.
 

DValdron

This actually strikes me as an interesting timeline with far reaching consequences. I'd like to see someone take a serious run at it.
 
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