1892: Lethal Otsu incident reprecussions

In 1892, while the future Nicholas II of Russia was engaging in his world tour/ Trans-Siberian railway inaguration ceremony he stopped in Kyoto- where one of his official police escorts, one Tsuda Sanzō, had a bout of xenophobic patriotism and tried to chop Nicholas up with a sabre.

Fortunately for Nicholas and Japan, and unfortunately for Russia, the first blow was only glancing and the second blow was parried by his cousin prince George of Greece.

So let's suppose that Tsuda is more successful and kills both Nicholas and George before being apprehended.

What is the realistic/plausible short term outcome?

The Transsiberian Railway is not yet built so Russia has a very limited ability to project land power to East Asia. I think it's garrison in the Transbaikal and TranAmur amounts to perhaps 60,000 regular and Cossack troops- perhaps a quarter of what the Japanese army can raise. They can be reinforced, of course, but marching from Chelyabinsk on the Ural mountains to the Pacific is quite a Trek.

On the other hand, the Russian navy, even the far east flotilla, ridiculously outmasses the Japanese fleet. 1892-1894 is precisely when the Japanese navy underwent massive expansion (and the navy it used during the first sino Japanese war was still miniscule by European standards).

So the Russians can’t exactly invade the Japanese home isles, Probably not even Hokaido, but they can prevent the Japanese from invading the Asian mainland (maybe not Sakhlain). They can probably capture the Kuriles, and perhaps Tsunshima and Okinawa.

They can also try to impose a blockade on Japan, or at least on it's primary ports and they can launch terror bombardments on coastal settlements lacking strong defenses (most of them). They might even be able to force the defences of Yokohoma bay and shell Tokyo. They would be running short of shells, and coal, pretty quickly though and would find it difficult to operate exclusively out of Vladivostok.

Operating out of Korea's and China's treaty ports would eventually raise international eyebrows but I can’t really see any of the Colonial powers, or even the United States, openly intervening on Japan's behalf. On the other hand, long-term interdection of Japanese trade is going to make some capitalists in San-Francisco very unhappy- at some point the United states is going to try to mediate and settlement.

There's also the question of what Russia can possibly hope to achieve, realisticly, besides revenge and upholding their sacred honor. I mean, occupying and Ruling Japan is obviously out.

So way I see it it could go one of six ways:

1. Tsar Alexander takes a deep breath, realizes he can’t really gain much out of a war and presents Japan with a list of demands they can probably accept. The Kurile islands and a massive indemmity, enough to cripple the Japanese military buildup until the Trans-Siberian railway is completed.
1a. When the Tonghak rebellion breaks out and China sends troops to put it down the Japanese government lacks the ships or confidence to credibly challenge China for naval dominance of the Yellow sea. China transforms Korea into a de-facto protectorate and may yet undergo sufficiently successful reform by the time a WWI analog breaks out to evade
1b. Japan goes to war with inadequate resources and the war in Korea grinds down into a stalemate similliar to Japan's first invasion of Korea under Hideyoshi. 1c. Japan still goes to war, (possibly it waits a few more years), and still wins, though less spectacularly than OTL. When it does, however, it faces an unpleasant surprise- Russia intervenes on China's side and forces them to withdraw to the home isles sans any territorial gains or an indemmity.

2. Alexander demands too much (Tsunshima, Okinawa or even Hokaido), or the faction ridden Japanese government is unwilling to submit to gunboat diplomacy. War ensues.
2a. The war is expensive for Russia and the small Japanese fleet surprisingly adroit at raiding Russian colliers. Japan is devastated but preserves independence and all of it's territory save the Kuriles.
2b. Russian marines kick ass- Japan loses not only the Kuriles but Tsunshima, sado, and the Ryukus as well. Japan desprately seeks allies which will aid (and subsidise) a future war of revanche, and does not need to seek far.
2c. With his coastal cities in ruins and his people starving (1892 Japan did not depend on rice imports as much as 1942 Japan but was not self reliant) Meiji has no choice but to surrender. Japan loses the Kuriles, Tsunshima, the Ryukus and even Hokaido outright and the rest becomes a defacto protectorate, with it’s army relegated to internal policing (which is badly needed. Defeat leads to many revolts), it's navy permanently dismantled and it’s foreign affairs conducted exclusively through Russia. Russia realizes, however, that Japan is a permanent achiless heel. It reorients it's foreign policy away from the Balkans, The Middle East and Central Asia, and seeks to reach an entente with Britain while simultaneously seeking greater political control over lands lying between Japan and the Russian mainland (Like Korea. And Manchuria)

Which outcome seems most likely?
 
More than likely 1, question is what does this do too Russian Succession, now that Nicholas and Alexandra, and all the problems with a healthy heir an unpopular Tsarina are now thrown out the window.
 

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Maybe that incident will allow Alexander III to live longer, maybe his train accident don't happen here. On the other hand, his brother and new Tsarevich George has a tubercolosis and will not live too long, so the throne goes to the Michael.
 
This not ensure yet survival of the empire but make things bit easier. George Alexandrovich's reign will be very short if he ever rise to the thrnoe. Michael was conservative but smarter than Nicholas so he might accept some reforms and perhaps constitution but he might still keep much power himself. So the empire needs still much luck. One issue is that Michael should find suitable consort and get healthy male heir.
 
Maybe that incident will allow Alexander III to live longer, maybe his train accident don't happen here. On the other hand, his brother and new Tsarevich George has a tubercolosis and will not live too long, so the throne goes to the Michael.

The train incident occured prior to the Otsu incident- if anything Alexander III will not live as long due to grief.

This not ensure yet survival of the empire but make things bit easier. George Alexandrovich's reign will be very short if he ever rise to the thrnoe. Michael was conservative but smarter than Nicholas so he might accept some reforms and perhaps constitution but he might still keep much power himself. So the empire needs still much luck. One issue is that Michael should find suitable consort and get healthy male heir.

Well, one possible POD is that George never gets Tuberculosis and joins Nicholas on his trip. He might or might not survive the Otsu incident- I suppose if one is inclined to give the Russian monarchy as much of a advantage as possible he could survive- he seems to have been the son showing the greatest signs of future competence and besides, an underage Tsar (Michael would only be 15-16 when Alexander III dies), or one who was not trained to the Job would probably result in the Russian Bueacracy getting proceeding by inertia at best or getting deadlocked in faction fights even worse than OTL. OTOH, maybe Witte would have more of a free hand to reform the Russian empire without backseat driving by a Tsar with delusions of Autocratic competence.

More than likely 1, question is what does this do too Russian Succession, now that Nicholas and Alexandra, and all the problems with a healthy heir an unpopular Tsarina are now thrown out the window.

The Russian Monarchy can only benefit by the absence of ALexandra and her pathological relationship with the Tsar.

I wonder, however, whether an inhouse marriage by George or Michael to a member of the Russian nobility, or better yet, a daughter of the Noveau rich industrialists might not be better for the Monarchy.

But all that being said, and assuming That Tsar Alexander III "the peacemaker" settles for the Kuriles and an indemmity I'm more intersted in the reprecussions for international relations in the immediate aftermath of the assasination.

Two/three major events coming up-
1. Tonghak rebellion and Sino-Japanese war in 1894-1895 (and following rebellions in Inner Mongolia and Gansu).
2. Hamidian massacres of the Armenians and the Greek-Ottoman war.

OTL, Russia chose to sit both conflicts out. But with less financial trouble and a Tsar who is either weaker (Michael, due to youth) or more pro-active (George) Russia might seek more of an advantage from the situation.
 
If Japan proves conclusively that this was a rogue actor, apologizes and hands over the guy (and maybe some 'co-conspirators' see: people they'd like to get rid of that they can get the Russians to believe were involved) I don't think Russia would do much more than bluster, especially since the succession is going to lead to internal issues and any form of war with Japan would be to taxing for the country at the time.
 
It is possible that Russia may demand trade concessions on top of money. If Japan does try to bluff their way through negotiations, then they lose some of their fleet and civilian fishing ships ans well as other merchant vessels.
 
If Japan proves conclusively that this was a rogue actor, apologizes and hands over the guy (and maybe some 'co-conspirators' see: people they'd like to get rid of that they can get the Russians to believe were involved) I don't think Russia would do much more than bluster, especially since the succession is going to lead to internal issues and any form of war with Japan would be to taxing for the country at the time.

Don’t really see that as being plausible. First, there is no way to prove a negative, certainly not conclusively. Second, if the Assassin is successful he may well be killed on the spot making providing proof problematic- and the whole incident look even more suspicious. Third, the assassin is a member of the official police escort of the heir. Who is murdered on Japanese soil on an official visit. By *Insert racist expletive*.

There isn't going to be any time for an official investigation before the shit hits the fan- while the Japanese government is, in fact, far less complicit in this murder than the Serbs were in the murder of FF, their responsibility, in world and Russian opinion (and even Japanese opinion), looks several orders of magnitude worse.

For reasons of international prestige and domestic public opinion alone, never mind his own personal feelings, Alexander can't let this pass.

And I can’t see the succession being all that disputed. Alexander has two living sons. He either chooses George in spite of his health issues (Assuming I don’t POD that away) or he chooses Michael. Since his own health issues are not apparent at this point, so Michael is not viewed as too young, I guess he probably chooses Michael, and the choice is probably not very controversial. Older heirs have been passed over in the past for various reasons after all.
If it is controversial "a short victorious war" may well be viewed as the best way to paper over any controversy.

I don't think the racial/racist angle can be overlooked either. Japan is not, yet, a member of the family of the nations. An assassination by *insert racist expletive* is going to arouse far more passions, and far less rational analysis, than an assassination by an occidental. And browbeating an Asian state is going to arouse far less international opposition than doing the same to a European state.

Unfair, but that's life in the high age of colonialism.

Furthermore, if Alexander IIIs response to his father's assassination is the yardstick to go by he seems to have the potential to go over the top. On the other hand, he was also relatively cautious in his foreign, as opposed to Domestic, policy. Other than Pandjeb he did not seek any foreign advance during his reign even when the opportunity presented itself (Hamidian massacres, Greek-Ottoman war).

So I think that he is likely to settle for demanding the Kuriles and an Indemnity.

Do you think The Meiji government will cave in to this demand or will it choose to fight?
 
If this war is sparked by a public assassination of a head of state, then not only will Japan not find any international support, but Russia will. (Think of the Boxer war). The most friendly to the Japanese would be the English, and this will only be out of general defiance from the Bear (the Anglo-Japanese treaty is still 10 years away). On the contrary, the Americans and the French (in Indochina) will be heavily pro-Russian and happy to supply the Russian fleet if needed. The Dutch could probably also be persuaded to give a hand.

So, most likely case is: the Emperor apologizes on the spot, the family of the assassin commits seppuku, trade concessions to Russia. Else: the Russian fleet does a force demonstration in a Japanese port, a few warning shots fired, trade concessions to Russia.

In both situations, expect the work on the Transsiberian to be put at top priority, or even more!
 
So, most likely case is: the Emperor apologizes on the spot, the family of the assassin commits seppuku, trade concessions to Russia. Else: the Russian fleet does a force demonstration in a Japanese port, a few warning shots fired, trade concessions to Russia.

I am not sure about seppuku, but the rest agrees with how I see the things might develop.
 
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