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Grover Cleveland won the Election of 1892 with only 3% of the popular vote, but 62% of the Electoral Vote (277 votes). In many northern states with high EV counts, he won by only two or three percent. If John Bidwell of the Prohibition Party hadn't been able to get on the ballot in California, Illinois, New York, or Wisconsin then those close states probably would have gone for Republican Benjamin Harrison.

This map shows what would have happened if Bidwell's vote in these states had, in effect, been given to Harris.



Still not a huge change. Harrison only picked up California and Wisconsin. Now watch what happens when, on top of that switch, Harrison gains another one percent in these four states, either by more Harrison supporters or less Cleveland supporters turning out to vote.



This allows Harrison to pick up Illinois and New York, giving him 231 EV's, nine more then necessary for a majority. So, in this scenario Harrison wins a second term. One thing I want to know is how Harrison's second term would pan out.

There is, however, one more variable; the Populist Party. The populist party was a coalition of western farmers and laborers who supported the silver standard, among other things. They picked up five states, winning 8% of the popular vote and 22 Electoral Votes. They were within two percentage points of winning Nebraska also. If they had won Nebraska, would that have any effect on the party? With a POD of the 1892 Election, could the Populist Party be made to stay around, possibly joining with moderate Socialists or Democrats?
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