I Invoke
@Paradox-less to help me to give a Answer.
Well as we wait he arrived I give my answer
Well the situation is Fucked
The Chilean navy is the more powerful Navy in the Pacific hands downs, there is no other country with pacific ports that could dispute this situation, Chile have control of the Magellan strait and the drake passage, the only know passage from the Atlantic to the pacific until 1915(panama canal opening) vital for the USA, and well everyone else, Pacific Shipping, and also Have control of the principal port of the Pacific, Valparaiso(remember that Peru was occupied by Chilean Forces until 1883), Ecuador and Colombia are Allies of Chile and in case of war Caused by The panama crisis, Colombia is a Chilean co-belligerent.
Brasil and Chile have a really cordial Relations, only Argentina could be a problem, but in this age they are inward looking and consolidating his Desert conquest (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquest_of_the_Desert)
Chile is still in war footing, they are taking Peruvian and Bolivian territory and until 1883 they still have forces in Lima, the process of soldier demobilization was ended, but still have a pool of veterans readily available to recruit in case of war
they still Have a strong pacific fleet,the ships, from weakest to strongest
CORBETA "O'HIGGINS
Year 1866
Despl. 1101 tons
Weapons
4 de 40 lbs.
3 cannons of 7"
2 de 70 lbs.
machine power
1.200 HP.
Max Speed
9 knots
CORBETA/CAÑONERA "PILCOMAYO"
Year 1864
Despl. 600 toneladas.
Weapons
4 cannon de 12 lbs.
4 cannon de 40 lbs.
2 cannon de 70 lbs.
machine power
1.080 IHP. a 10 knots
Max Speed
11 knots.
BLINDADO "COCHRANE"
Year 1873
Despl. 3.560 tons
Weapons
2 torpedo tube 14" above water line
2 torpedo tube 14"under water line .
3 Gatling de 1".
4 cannons de 1 pdr.
4 cannons de 6 pdr.
4 cannons de 4.7".
6 cannons de 8".
machine power
2.920 HP.
Max Speed
12.75 knots
lenght 210 pies
BLINDADO "BLANCO ENCALADA
Year 1875
Despl. 3.560 tons
Weapons
2 torpedo tube 14" above water line
2 torpedo tube 14"under water line .
3 Gatling de 1".
4 cannons de 1 pdr.
4 cannons de 6 pdr.
4 cannons de 4.7".
6 cannons de 8".
machine power
2.920 HP.
Max Speed
12.75 knots
lenght 210 pies
MONITOR "HUÁSCAR"
year 1865
Despl. 1.180 tons (B.O.M).
Weapons
1 Gatling .44.
1 Cannon 12 pounds
2 Cannon de 40 pounds
2 Cannon de 300 pounds (custom made to shore bombardment)
machine power
300 HP.
Max Speed
11 knots
lenght 195 foot
PROTECTED CRUISER "ESMERALDA"( the one send to Colombia)
you know the Izumi(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_cruiser_Izumi) is the same ship
Type:
Protected cruiser
Displacement: 2,930
long tons (2,977 t)
Length: 82.29 m (270 ft)
w/l
Beam: 12.8 m (42 ft)
Draught: 5.64 m (18 ft 6 in)
Propulsion:
- Horizontal double expansion steam engines, 6,083 hp (4,536 kW)
- 12 boilers
- 2 shafts
- 600 tons coal
Speed: 18.25 knots (21.0 mph; 33.8 km/h)
Complement: 300
Armament:
Armour:
- 25 mm (0.98 in) deck armor (slope)
- 12 mm (0.47 in) deck armor (flat)
Plus a series of minor ship for coastal defense and support
For USA I can´t find his pacific fleet composition or strength in this period. The Atlantic USA fleet is irrelevant, they don´t have how arrive to Chile, as I say Chile control all the passages from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the would have to operate from the other side of the world, without friendly ports and the long road (Atlantic-Indian ocean-Pacific) it´s not feasible.
Saltpeter, the principal exporting good of Chile representing 30% of the national exports, only have a tax of around 2% of the value of the export total, so in case of war they could easily be go up to pay the necessities of the war, and if the companies question this they would be refereed to make his complaints against the USA, as the USA aggression war is the culprit. Remember Chile are intervening on Behalf of Colombia being invaded by USA Troops, that are trying to annex Panama.
Chilean Saltpeter are also vital to the agricultural sectors of the UK, France, Germany and Scandinavia, an only really important to the economies of Europe in general
And to complicate more the USA situation most of the Shipping is in English hands, so they Couldn´t implement and embargo against Chile, well they could try but it ´s a embargo against the Royal Navy.
Chile have in this year a Defense Budget of US$4.300.000 (US 77,994,483.30 as 2005 Dollar) VS the little more than US 100.000.000 AS 2005 that USA spend the same years (source 1
http://www.saladehistoria.com/PSU/Preuniversitario/2013/GM814.pdf source 2
https://www.usgovernmentspending.co...0USm_19s2li011mcn_30f_Defense_Spending_Spikes), So in theory there is not a mayor economical difference.
Most of the Chilean weapons are imported, but Chile could produce Bullets and Cannonballs for the weapons that they have.
Chile could send ships to bombardment California, San Francisco, an even disembark troops, but don´t have the logistical means to maintain a occupation, so they only could do is pillage, and the associate tropes.
In Case the Chileans use the the Colombian Docks of the Atlantic side as base to continue the war I don´t know how the war would develop, In theory Chile have the upper hand but are far from his base and supply train and i doubt they could touch the Atlantic cost of USA, Is feasible that a Chilean navy Presence on the Atlantic disrupt enough the USA influence on the Central America, that we could see a end of the Banana republic funding by USA interest but again i´don´t know enough of the political situation in this age.
In conclusion is a situation that Chile could theoretically project force until California and San Francisco without problem, send troops to reinforce the Colombian situation, an even burn San Francisco, but can´t touch the Atlantic side of USA, and USA can´t touch Chile, or enter in the Pacific, and couldn´t disrupt the Chilean commerce because more of the commerce was done by English and German ships.
So all in all a lose for the USA. if the war takes longer, the industrial and sheer size advantages of the USA take hold, but i doubt the war last this long