1878 Congress of Berlin creates different Balkan borders

Background:
In December 1876 and January 1877, the Great Powers (UK, Russia, France, A-H, Germany and Italy) held the Constantinople Conference as an attempt to create political reforms in Ottoman Bulgaria.
The Bulgarian people were to enjoy substantial autonomy in two new Ottoman Provinces, the Western with its capital in Sofia, the Eastern with its capital in Tarnovo.
Sultan Abdul Hamid II refused to accept the ultimative proposal and the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish War started.
Russia won and dictated a peace (the Treaty of San Stefano) that created a Bulgarian superstate under Russian control.
At the 1878 Congress of Berlin, Russia was forced to back down. OTL a much smaller Bulgaria was created, with an autonomous province of Eastern Rumelia as second Bulgarian polity.


But WI the Congress was determined to go back to the results of the Constantinople conference? Here are the borders (from Bulgarian wikipedia):

800px-Constantinople_conference.png


I assume that to honor the Russiabn military successes and sacrifices, Russia would receive controlling influence in the Eastern Province. The same time, for obvious geographical reasons, Austria-Hungary would receive controlling influence over the new province of Bosnia.
Western Bulgaria will remain under controlling influence of the Ottoman sultan.
What now? Serbia is neatly contained, and that will result in future unrest. If the OTL history of Bulgaria is a guide, than Russia will fumble its influence *and* the Bulgarian desire for reunification will be satisfied soon-ish. This will result is a Greater Bulgaria outside Russian control.
Meanwhile, once the Ottomans lose their remaining European possessions, the western border of Bulgaria really suggests a future Albania that includes the Kosovo.

Any comments or further ideas?
 
I'm wondering if this will result in Ottoman Turkey eventually being permanently expelled from Europe (Including Eastern Thrace) and Adrianople and Constantinople ending up either as part of Greece or Bulgaria?
 

Avskygod0

Banned
Serbs are still angry that there are Serbs in Ottoman state, and the fact that they considered Bosnia to be Serbian will be a big problem
 
Well, Serbia and Montenegro are going to be pissed off about Novi Pazar, and seeing Austria collude with the Ottomans is going to increase their Messianic panslavist ideology and their general inferiority complex. Maybe they swap their dynasties again. From memory, I think the Obrenovici were on the throne at that point, so the Karageorgevici will pull them back towards Russia, strengthening the polarisation of the Balkans between the two empires. Austria will feel encircled by Russian puppets (are these divisions spheres of influence, puppet states or integral parts of the country? I don't speak enough Bulgarian to work it out :p)

As to Bulgaria, they're pissed off about San Stefano, as OTL, and the Hohenzollerns probably don't get enthroned there. Would Alexander Ioan Cuza's regime survive any longer? If not, some Oldenburger or Beauharnais flunky would probably replace him.

Turkey would have to engage in major military reforms to stop Serbia and Bulgaria achieving a common border, but they were never much good at that, so little change would eventuate. Albania will become nationalist earlier due to their exposed position bordering A-H and Greece will definite go for the Aegean coast that is definitively not claimed by Bulgaria, but that would only really be relevant in a Versailles scenario where Bulgaria has to make territorial concessions - being a Russian puppet would prevent this.

These are just knee-jerk assumptions, obv. I'm happy to be wrong, but it seems like the Balkans are still going to be in a state of constant tension.
 
Would Alexander Ioan Cuza's regime survive any longer? If not, some Oldenburger or Beauharnais flunky would probably replace him.

Huh? Alexandru Ioan Cuza has been dead for at least five years at this point, and also replaced by the catholic branch of the Hohenzollerns since 1866. Also, what does he have to do with Bulgaria?

Anyway, in regards to the map, I doubt Dobruja will enter Bulgarian hands, since the Russians will still want Southern Bessarabia back, and their only way to have it is to trade it for Dobruja.
 
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