1867: The Second Empire to the Rhine

Let's say the Luxembourg Crisis results in war.

In 1867 the Prussian Military Reforms that were formulated from the Prussian experience in 1866 were not yet implemented. Prussia will also lack as developed a rail network as it did in 1870. Thus, Prussia will not have the mobilization and transportation efficiency that it had in 1870 OTL which allowed Prussia to outnumber French forces 2-1 early on. For good measure,

France ends up victorious and annexing Luxembourg, the Left Bank of the Rhine, and Kehl. Short of marching on Berlin, I don't think France could undo the establishment of the North German Federation - however the treaty put in place forbids the South German states from forming any broader entity with the NGF. For good measure, Schleswig is returned to Denmark (let's say the Danes sided with France in the war).


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Most of the German Empire's industrial cores (the Westphalian Ruhr, Elbe-Saxony region, and Silesia) are still in the NGF here, so despite having less manpower the NGF should still be a force to be reckoned with. France, however, has the Gibraltar of the North (Luxembourg), the Saarland, a small bit of the Ruhr, and a larger population (although most likely something of a restive one, though the importation of Poles to the Ruhr which happened OTL might change things). Plus France has Alsace-Lorraine still.

Belgium will likely be very antsy, as will Britain. The Italians don't necessarily hate the French yet (the big disapproval-spike happened when they shot at Garibaldi in November of 1867 - if Napoleon leaves Rome unguarded for this war as he brings the garrison to France that problem more or less solves itself). Empress Eugénie and Queen Isabella wanted Napoleon IV to marry María del Pilar OTL, and the two were apparently quite in love historically (so much so that Maria may have killed herself when Napoleon IV died). I could see Spain becoming an ally/junior partner to the French Empire.

Other thoughts?
 
Can't see a french victory happening. Luxembourg alone was an incredibly strong fortress, apparently garrisoned by prussian troops at the time when the crisis was really looking like a war was going to start. The garde "mobile" is incapable of actually leaving france, halving french troops at the outset of an offensive war that is intended to assail a formidable fortress and overwhelm germany, which has a hell of an army.

Not to mention, britain will be supremely displeased with the possibility of france owning the rhineland, being allies with Spain, and effectively enveloping it's baby, belgium, and at a time before the entente cordiale, this could mean outright intervention, as fashoda showed that tensions could boil over very quickly over something that doesn't really matter (and this sure as hell does)

Additionally. Germany's railway system is not as advanced, sure, but you need to remember this is a war happening almost exclusively on german soil (until the french army is inevitably annihilated) at a time where war wouldn't really be a surprise, allowing them to begin moving troops into positions while the french army is busy moving to begin the attack in the first place, which would have to either stall or split up to manage the threat luxembourg poses.

With southern germany on-side (the wikipedia article I'm reading while I type up this response states that bismarck had made agreements with the southern german states on october tenth), austria effectively a non-entity militarily, britain possibly intervening against a blatantly expansionist france which threatens it's continental policy, and russia & france not on the best terms (remember, this is what, 11 years after crimea?), any timeline involving this would end in a united germany somewhat quicker at the least, and a german wank at the most.
 
OTL France had a total strength of 2 million men. They started off with 910,000 (420,000 of which were garde mobile).
OTL Germany had 1.5 million men. They started off with 938,000 (210,000 were landwehr).

So you started off with France having 490k vs Germany with 728k + 210k on German soil (so 490 vs 938, or the OTL 2-1 disadvantage France had).

However, Prussia won't have put in place its reforms yet TTL (whereas OTL France didn't yet put in place its reforms). France will have roughly the same number of soldiers, but the German numbers will be more reminiscent of 1866.

In the Austro-Prussian War...
Prussia had 437,000
Bavaria had 38,000
Saxony had 26,500
Hesse had 20,000
Hanover 18,400
Wurrtemburg had 7,000
Baden had 5,000

Total... 551,900 (not counting casualties) throughout the whole war.
Account for the soldiers who died during the Austro-Prussian war and the German States involved in this conflict have 500,000 men to start off with vs France's 490,000.

Also of note is that in the Second Schleswig War, Denmark had 38,000 men (1,600 died).


But I'd say that at the beginning of this conflict...

France + Denmark = 528,000
German States = 500,000

That's a big difference compared to OTL. We've gone from France being down 2-1 to a French coalition being up 1.06-1. If you account for mobilizations, OTL things got to 2 vs 1.4 but France lost too quickly for that to mean anything. Subtract the garde mobile and you're still at 1.6 to 1.4 (maybe 1.7 to 1.4 accounting for Denmark).






As for Spain, OTL Napoleon IV died in 1879 and was not yet married. I don't see why Spain wouldn't be pulled into the French orbit until that marriage happens, which would likely be after 1879 (ergo 8 years later) given how events OTL went. Even if the marriage happened sooner, it wouldn't be before 1874 when Napoleon IV turns 18 (and his father was planning on stepping down IIRC). That's a 7-year wait.
 
Britain might not like it, but I'm not sure they'd get involved. They'd need a continental ally to take on France. Prussia is the natural choice, but her army is still smaller than the French-Danish one. Austria's a military non-entity and not to mention that Austria just got the floor wiped with them (by Prussia) in the Seven Weeks War, so they'd probably be pro-French or neutral rather than join in. Same goes for the south German states - Württemberg and Bavaria are traditional French allies and Bismarck's scrap of paper might be as useful as Karl VI's Pragmatic Sanction. They've (as well as Hesse and Hannover) got their own issues with Berlin, hence might dither to respond. IIRC Russia might have it's differences with France but she's across Europe.

Ergo, IMHO, if Britain can't find a partner for an anti-French waltz (besides Prussia), she'd spew anti-Gallic sentiment but ultimately not be able to do much. I don't say that France would keep this region (it might spark German revanchism as much as the loss of Alsace-Lorraine sparked French revanchism), and there might be a new war over it in a few years.
 
Britain might not like it, but I'm not sure they'd get involved. They'd need a continental ally to take on France. Prussia is the natural choice, but her army is still smaller than the French-Danish one. Austria's a military non-entity and not to mention that Austria just got the floor wiped with them (by Prussia) in the Seven Weeks War, so they'd probably be pro-French or neutral rather than join in. Same goes for the south German states - Württemberg and Bavaria are traditional French allies and Bismarck's scrap of paper might be as useful as Karl VI's Pragmatic Sanction. They've (as well as Hesse and Hannover) got their own issues with Berlin, hence might dither to respond. IIRC Russia might have it's differences with France but she's across Europe.

Ergo, IMHO, if Britain can't find a partner for an anti-French waltz (besides Prussia), she'd spew anti-Gallic sentiment but ultimately not be able to do much. I don't say that France would keep this region (it might spark German revanchism as much as the loss of Alsace-Lorraine sparked French revanchism), and there might be a new war over it in a few years.

Hanover is part of Prussia and Hesse is in the NGF, so I don't think they really get a say.

I agree that the Rhineland will be France's Alsace-Lorraine, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose it (the French certainly weren't guaranteed to regain A-L OTL).


I think the big question will be the South German States. Bavaria will be very unhappy with France after losing Palatinate, but Bavaria also had a bit of its own Nationalistic streak (and even OTL retained its own army and diplomatic corps) and may not want to be part of a Prussian-dominated entity TTL if they just lost a war that Prussia took them in to. Wurrtemburg more or less marched in lockstep with Bavaria. Baden tried to join the NGC in 1866, but Bismarck rejected the country. I think they'd be the South German state most likely to try to join the NGF later on.

If France is taking Bavaria's Palatinate, might they perhaps try to give Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen to Bavaria as compensation and in order to try and force a diplomatic split?
 
The problem was, Nappy III had wasted lots of money and ammo in Mexico. And the organisation was horrible - read Zola's "The Debacle".
 
It's a possible scenario, but one that is unlikely to hold as Germany grows. Austria will still be brought into the Prussian alliance, and Britain will have soured against the French. France will have to support a huge army for the Rhine and its main benefit will be keeping the Germans from having it.
 
Why would Austria necessarily be brought into the Prussian alliance? I would think winning over Austria would be a top diplomatic goal of France.

I could see a South German Confederation forming here.
 
Yeah France could have be more sucessful in 1867, but even if they win i don't think that they would annex the Rhine, napoleon III want to avoid an antagonism with United Kingdom because it doesn't want to reapeat the coalition war, IMO they would ask to the Rhine and decrease their claims maybe Lower Rhine, Luxemburg and Palatinate (against Compensation) would be the maximum.

Concerning the south Germany if i remember some baden priest pray for a french victory. So in case of french victory people would be divided OTL some Luxemburg people manifested to be annexed by France because it was an opportunity for them many worked here i could see some people in the Rhineland accept a french rule not all but some of them especially the elit.

In this case Prussia didn't get the same succes that originally so it would be less succesfful for the German cause they are too warmonger and it was that caused their end, some liberal would want to avoid to be part of a millitarist state that would bring back a lot of conflict.

Concerning south Germany many people would be scared but divided Prussia was weak and loose and they are protestant many south German state could try to join Austrian sphere of inluence becuause they los against Prussia but are still catholic and closer of them culturally some could try to join the north cnofeeration again because a Germany united would still have more chance and some could try to join the french zone of influence because theywere really powerfull in term of cultural and political impact and people want to be part of the winner and get a part of the cake and France is really well see by the catholic, Napoleon III protected the pope and try to restore the glory of a christian nation in Mexico (at least european would see it like this). So it would be a cultural fight, during tthe next year the second empire would wallk on a tightrope and would try to avoid a major conflict, so i don't see the second empire fall at least not now because the second empire would be more sucesfull and the rhineland ressource would help french developpement.

I would see Bismarck blame the warmonger parliament and claiming that if the Prussian parliament didn't oppose to the french purchase, Prussia could have formed a german union powerfull enough to beat France and even have them as allies instead of opponent.
 
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would see Bismarck blame the warmonger parliament and claiming that if the Prussian parliament didn't oppose to the french purchase, Prussia could have formed a german union powerfull enough to beat France and even have them as allies instead of opponent.

Oh the irony in Bismarck BLAMING a war by saying what they wanted could've been achieved by peaceful means. ;) Could've had a major impact on Prussia's militarism. Wonder if the fact that his beloved army had lost would cause Wilhelm I to abdicate as he had threatened before Bismarck came on the scene.
 
Oh the irony in Bismarck BLAMING a war by saying what they wanted could've been achieved by peaceful means. ;) Could've had a major impact on Prussia's militarism. Wonder if the fact that his beloved army had lost would cause Wilhelm I to abdicate as he had threatened before Bismarck came on the scene.

Exactly but he's too smart to take the blame and since he played with the idea of a deal with Napoleon III he would say that he wanted to respect his accord but the parliament refused to deal with the french.

I don't think that he would blame the king too risky, he was a conservative and could be see as a traitor if he does that. Also it would srve the liberal and socialist and I don't see Bismarck accept it. Wihlem could personally take a party of the blame to avoid too many concession with the libearal, they would ask for blood and if Wihlem think that the monarchy would be weaknen he could agree to abdicate to his heir to kept a strong monarchy and loosen the volounty of reform.

Prussia would reform itself deeply especially the army i think that you would see the idea of a common millitary in the north of Germany to form a new nation (Northern Germany ? ) and claim for other german country to join them and would try to form Germany. IMO they would try to goes in war againstr Austria when it would be weaken to form a strong and powerfull Germany, in the purpose to goe in war against France after. Prussia would seek an alliance with Austria, Russia and England, USA.
But the problem is that Austria would want to profit of this event to became the major german power, Russia would be interested to wotrk with the french , since they are succesfull and could help them to modernize, UK is still a naval power and still have cordial relation with France, USa is too far away to play a big role.

French and Denmark relation would be pretty good and i could see a lot of cooperation between both power. Napoleon III would be really well seen, he could play the liberal card with the rhineland, the clergical card (liberate catholic territories), the nationalsit card (pretty obvious), the buisness card (same), ... so he would gain in popularity, the french armies would reform in the same rythm between 1867 and 1870, yeah Napoleon III would be more popular to implent his reform but n the same time te french would be more arrogant and a weak will of military reform, but you could see french army elvove differently play less on the number (they are again one of the most populus realm in Europa) and play more with the idea of a professional army.

Napoleon III would also try to content Austria-Hungary with some minor concession, just to avoid a coalition, concerning Spain other power would try to support another candidate but i'm pretty sure that Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen would accept the crown (he's the kind of guy that want to avoid a big conflit) but in thesametime other power would not accept a french interference in the spanish land, so Amedee would surely become the king like OTL.
 
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