1866 Hapsburg "Pruning": Alternative Congress of Berlin?

Without rambling on too long about the background, suffice to say the Austrian Empire was not in an enviable position near the end of 1866. Faced with a pair of disastrous wars against Prussia and the French-Piedmontese respectively, the lose of its influence in Italy and Germany as her allies/clients fell to her rivals, without allies after her refusal to come to Russia's aid in the Crimean War, a looming financial crisis, and simmering resentment on the part of her minor ethnicities there was a very real chance of the Hapsburg dynasty tumbling from Great Power status if this unbearable pressure continued much longer. It was only by reaching a compromise with Hungary and the (relatively) generous terms offered by Prussia following their brief Fraternal War that Vienna was able to find the breathing room to recover. However, this wasn't the only possibility: riding on a string of victories, King Wilhelm I had wanted to continue the Austro-Prussian war until he could have a triumphal march through Vienna, potentially annexing Austria or at least large parts of the Empire. Only Bismark's stringent resistance; up to and including a threat to resign, on the basis of keeping Germany acceptable in the eyes of the world and limiting Austrian desires for revenge allowed the war to be surprisingly short as it was; helping lead to Germany's unique unification and Federal structure later on.

While Wilhelm I completely ignoring the advise of as prestigious a man as Bismark is fairly unlikely... at least much less likely than his grandson, what if King Wilhelm had taken advantage of his chancellor's penchant for boosting/maintaining Prussia's reputation as a power broker abroad to reach a compromise with similar results to the Russian victory in the Russo-Turkish war of 1877: namely, that while Bismark would stay on while Whilhelm finished the war and created a provisional treaty, Prussia would partake in an international conference with the other Powers to discuss the future of the Hapsburg domains. For the sake of making this more believable/likely to be accepted by Vienna, let's say as the war drags on and Austria tries to raise taxes/conscripts to rebuild its shattered army, this triggers a crisis/revolts in Hungary Bohemia and smaller, less organized outbreaks of violence throughout the Empire as the local notables demand more autonomy, if not outright indepence, and resist Austrian attempts to take their men and materials to fuel what they see as a hopeless war over "German interests"

A few points to consider.

-Who gets to participate? Great Britain, France, and Russia are obvious, but what about Sardinia-Piedmont and the Ottoman Empire? Other German states like, say, Barvaria? Are their representatives of the Crown of St. Stephen and St. Wenceslas?

-What kinds of proposed divisions can we expect to see? I imagine they won't exactly decided mainly based on ethnic line, but partially on the interests the present parties have in the "Controlled breakdown". I personally don't think we'd see complete dissolution, but its a possability.

-With Austria broken down as a Great Power, how are British interests in the Ottomans affected? After all, there isen't any other potential check on Russian expansion; are the Brits going to be more dedicated to building up/propping up the Sultanate?

-How does this impact German unification?
 
I seem to recall Bismarck having been dead-set against Grossdeutschland, but there will be a sizeable German nationalist contingent that will want to annex Austria.

Russia will probably try to grab Galicia, but I don't know if Britain or France would let that happen.

Italy will push for Istria and Dalmatia.

Who knows, the Ottomans might get a little bit of breathing room with one of their main rivals removed and the other having Britain looking toward containing it, but in the 1860s-70s that might be too late to matter.

Edit: Removed an unnecessary word.
 
I seem to recall Bismarck having been dead-set against Grossdeutschland, but there will be a sizeable German nationalist contingent that will want to annex Austria.

Russia will probably try to grab Galicia, but I don't know if Britain or France would let that happen.

Italy will push for Istria and Dalmatia.

Who knows, the Ottomans might get a little bit of breathing room with one of their main rivals removed and the other having Britain and looking toward containing it, but in the 1860s-70s that might be too late to matter.

The Hapsburgs were aligned with the Ottomans in the 19th c, even if unfavorable circumstances prevented them from doing much together. The Hapsburg Empire falling apart would be very bad for the Ottomans.
 
If the war continued France would get involved. Napoléon III was shocked by Austria's quick defeat and planned to intervene against Prussia. It was only the quick peace that stopped him from doing so. Then Prussia has a war on two fronts, potentially more if the other German states that sided with Austria re-enter the war. Now what Russia and Britain would do in such a scenario I'm not sure. This is a few years after the Polish uprising of 1863-64, so Russia runs the risk of another revolt beginning with their army distracted. Britain's hard to figure out; the royal court's sympathy would be with Prussia while the government would want to support the balance of power. So Britain is likely neutral.
 
I seem to recall Bismarck having been dead-set against Grossdeutschland, but there will be a sizeable German nationalist contingent that will want to annex Austria.

Russia will probably try to grab Galicia, but I don't know if Britain or France would let that happen.

Italy will push for Istria and Dalmatia.

Who knows, the Ottomans might get a little bit of breathing room with one of their main rivals removed and the other having Britain looking toward containing it, but in the 1860s-70s that might be too late to matter.

Edit: Removed an unnecessary word.

That's kind of the point: he knows that if he follows through on his threat to resign, the Kaiser is going to march in and (try to) annex Austria anyways... and ruin all the work he'd put into improving Prussia's position as well as creating the dreaded Grossdeutschland. However, if he can bring the issue to European arbitration, not only does Prussia look magnanimous, reasonable, and willing to play within the rules of international norms/balance of power, but it allows him to curb Kaiser Whilhelm's ambitions in a way he never could alone.

If the war continued France would get involved. Napoléon III was shocked by Austria's quick defeat and planned to intervene against Prussia. It was only the quick peace that stopped him from doing so. Then Prussia has a war on two fronts, potentially more if the other German states that sided with Austria re-enter the war. Now what Russia and Britain would do in such a scenario I'm not sure. This is a few years after the Polish uprising of 1863-64, so Russia runs the risk of another revolt beginning with their army distracted. Britain's hard to figure out; the royal court's sympathy would be with Prussia while the government would want to support the balance of power. So Britain is likely neutral.

This thread isen't discussing "What if France intervened in the Austro-Prussian War". For the sake of this being the POD, we'll presume France, Britain, and Russia all agree to the conference, giving it legitimacy and clout. While French intervention is certainly a timeline that deserves discussion, this thread is about if it takes a peaceful, Congress of Berlin-esque route.
 
Actually the war wouldn't necessarily have continued much longer.

Wilhelm never contemplated the wholesale dismemberment of Austria. His precise intentions are a bit vague, but he seems to have wanted either the province of Bohemia or the German bits of Bohemia/Moravia/Silesia (roughly was later called the Sudetenland. He would also have liked at least a part of Saxony, but OTOH would not have insisted on annexing Hanover or the Hesses, provided their current rulers agreed to abdicate. Franz Joseph wd probably have swallowed this once Vienna came under threat, and it wouldn't have upset the balance of power enough to worry Louis Napoleon.
 
Actually the war wouldn't necessarily have continued much longer.

Wilhelm never contemplated the wholesale dismemberment of Austria. His precise intentions are a bit vague, but he seems to have wanted either the province of Bohemia or the German bits of Bohemia/Moravia/Silesia (roughly was later called the Sudetenland. He would also have liked at least a part of Saxony, but OTOH would not have insisted on annexing Hanover or the Hesses, provided their current rulers agreed to abdicate. Franz Joseph wd probably have swallowed this once Vienna came under threat, and it wouldn't have upset the balance of power enough to worry Louis Napoleon.

Ok, I think everybody here is a little off track. I'm starting to regret having put in that off handed comment to avoid statements of "How did we get to the point of Austrian instability reaching that critical mass?". The question is what an international congress to discuss the controlled partial dismemberment of the Hapsburg Empire in the mid-19th century would have looked like and what its impact would have been, not on the Austro-Prussian/Fraternal War in and of itself.
 
Ok, I think everybody here is a little off track. I'm starting to regret having put in that off handed comment to avoid statements of "How did we get to the point of Austrian instability reaching that critical mass?". The question is what an international congress to discuss the controlled partial dismemberment of the Hapsburg Empire in the mid-19th century would have looked like and what its impact would have been, not on the Austro-Prussian/Fraternal War in and of itself.
Fair enough. I wonder if the Ottomans would try for some territory, like Croatia? Would that be anywhere near the realm of plausibility? And would Hungary end up with pre-Trianon borders or would it get carved up too?
 
Fair enough. I wonder if the Ottomans would try for some territory, like Croatia? Would that be anywhere near the realm of plausibility? And would Hungary end up with pre-Trianon borders or would it get carved up too?

I was actually thinking the most likely place for an Ottoman gain (or at least protectorate) would be in Dalmatia: S-P would likely already be being compensated hugely in more valuble territories (Not to mention, it was just absorbing the territory of the 2nd Italian War of Independence/Austro-Italian war. The region wasen't traditionally part of the Kingdom of Hungary, and juts out somewhat... awkwardly next to Ottoman Bosnia.

As for Hungary, I imagine it'd get a solid chunk of territory: after all, Romania is an infant nation and Serb claims are likely going to be rejected by the Ottomans. Weather or not this would include Croatia... I'm not so sure. On one hand, its hard to imagine who'd be pushing that hard for an independent Croatia (France?) but on the other hand giving it to Hungary might make the Magyars TOO powerful for a new nation in the eyes of some. Perhaps the best option is to leave it in Austrian hands along with Slovenia.
 
My (rather uninformed) opinion would be this:

The countries that would be invited would be: Prussia, France, Britain, Italy, Russia, and potentially Austria.

Prussia is allowed to either have Austria or Bohemia from the Habsburg Empire. Given geography, they'd probably take Bohemia.
Russia is given Galicia.
Italy is given Venetia, Istria, and Sudtirol.
The Kingdom of Hanover remains independent under tight supervision of Britain. Prussia would be pissed.
The remaining German States go under Prussian influence.

Through a series of backdoor treaties between France, Britain, and Italy:
The rest of the Habsburg realm goes under French influence. Prussia and Italy would probably attempt to dispute this.
The Ottoman Empire would fall under the joint protection and watchful eye of these three (which would include potentially overthrowing the government if they feel necessary).

Alternatively: Britain and France agree to let Prussia have Austria and Bohemia if they agree to help contain Russia against future expansion into Ottoman territory. Not sure how likely France would agree to this, though.
 
Fair enough. I wonder if the Ottomans would try for some territory, like Croatia? Would that be anywhere near the realm of plausibility? And would Hungary end up with pre-Trianon borders or would it get carved up too?


No one is going to give the Turks a thing. Croatia goes with Hungary or stays with Austria. The Italians might try for Istria and Dalmatia but are unlikely to be strong enough to hold them.
 
The idea of a dismemberment of Austria[-Hungary] at this point in time and with such a late PoD is simply ASB for two principal reasons:
1. Dismemebering a Great Power was unprecedented and there was no will to do so outside of radical pan-germanists.
2. Destroying Austria absolutely destroys the Balance of Power(TM) in Europe, leaving an unwanted power vacuum that would make Prussia and Russia far too powerful since the other powers are arguably out of reach.

Seriously, the Austrian Empire was a geopolitical necessity in the post-Napoleonic system. When the Russians tried to dismember another Great Power, the declining Ottomans, they were met with strong enough opposition that half of Europe went to war to curb their ambitions. If Prussia was to do something alike with another, stronger and much better-respected Power, you can bet that the other powers wouldn't let it happen. If the Prussians called a Congress to push that objective, they would be utterly ridiculed. There is absolutely nothing reasonable about the proposal.

Anyways, for the of the argument as OP insists, the idea of Prussia taking Bohemia as Wilhelm wanted is definitely interesting and, in my opinion, might completely change the other German States' relationship with Prussia depending on how they handle the new land. Is it directly annexed into Prussia or is it admitted into the North German Federation as a 'separate' state? The direct and obivious consequence of either is a lot of very angry Czechs. After all, the Bohemian elite wanted autonomy in Austria in part to avoid becoming part of Prussia/Germany or Russia. The status of the Czechs is now likely in danger depending on how the Prussians deal with the situation and Czech national development.

If Bohemia is annexed as Prussian provinces (Silesia is reunited, likely separate provinces for Bohemia and Moravia in order to keep the transition of provincial government simple), then the south German states would feel incredibly anxious about this development; annexation into Prussia was definitely not a welcome thing in southern Germany and by directly annexing Bohemia, they show little consideration to traditional autonomy of former crownlands.

So, of course, a semi-independent Kingdom of Bohemia within the NGF is the reasonable choice so to avoid alienating the other German states. The question becomes: who rules this new state? There is hardly any legitimate choice here. Is a cadet Habsburg-Lorraine crowned? It's unlikely that a Bohemian magnate would be elevated to the spot without causing issues within the Bohemian nobility and a native Czech may be undesirable with the Prussians and Pangermans that would support the takeover. Is a member of another German house put in place? That won't be a popular move either.

Either way, the Prussian/German presence will cause severe issues in the long term (hindsight, though). This is, of course, ignoring the fact that Prussia is snatching Austria's richest and most developped crownland...

Finally, I want to point out the issues related to the seemingly-obvious/'natural' Russian annexation of Galicia into Congress Poland. It seems obvious that the Russians would want to unite Poland under their protection, but it might not be as obvious as you might think: Annexing Galicia dismantles the post-Partitions system and destroys it completely. One of the reasons why Polish uprisings were unsuccessful was because they always had to fight three Great Powers that had no intentions to give in. The reason is simple: Stability. The Polish situation ensured that neither of partitioners had an upper hand in the region, reducing the likelyhood of them going to war. It was a precarious balance none of them wanted to destroy. If Russia takes Galicia, then nothing stops Russia from taking Prussia's partition as well, reuniting Poland under their protection and, at least in theory, unrevocably tilting the balance towards Russia in Central Europe. At least, until Russia trips and Poland takes advantage of a reversal, but it doesn't change the fact that the stability of the region is going to be shattered for a long time. In short, Prussia would lose too much in letting Russia take Galicia and puts them at a severe geopolitical disadvantage.
 
The idea of a dismemberment of Austria[-Hungary] at this point in time and with such a late PoD is simply ASB for two principal reasons:
1. Dismemebering a Great Power was unprecedented and there was no will to do so outside of radical pan-germanists.
2. Destroying Austria absolutely destroys the Balance of Power(TM) in Europe, leaving an unwanted power vacuum that would make Prussia and Russia far too powerful since the other powers are arguably out of reach.

Seriously, the Austrian Empire was a geopolitical necessity in the post-Napoleonic system. When the Russians tried to dismember another Great Power, the declining Ottomans, they were met with strong enough opposition that half of Europe went to war to curb their ambitions. If Prussia was to do something alike with another, stronger and much better-respected Power, you can bet that the other powers wouldn't let it happen. If the Prussians called a Congress to push that objective, they would be utterly ridiculed. There is absolutely nothing reasonable about the proposal.

Anyways, for the of the argument as OP insists, the idea of Prussia taking Bohemia as Wilhelm wanted is definitely interesting and, in my opinion, might completely change the other German States' relationship with Prussia depending on how they handle the new land. Is it directly annexed into Prussia or is it admitted into the North German Federation as a 'separate' state? The direct and obivious consequence of either is a lot of very angry Czechs. After all, the Bohemian elite wanted autonomy in Austria in part to avoid becoming part of Prussia/Germany or Russia. The status of the Czechs is now likely in danger depending on how the Prussians deal with the situation and Czech national development.

If Bohemia is annexed as Prussian provinces (Silesia is reunited, likely separate provinces for Bohemia and Moravia in order to keep the transition of provincial government simple), then the south German states would feel incredibly anxious about this development; annexation into Prussia was definitely not a welcome thing in southern Germany and by directly annexing Bohemia, they show little consideration to traditional autonomy of former crownlands.

So, of course, a semi-independent Kingdom of Bohemia within the NGF is the reasonable choice so to avoid alienating the other German states. The question becomes: who rules this new state? There is hardly any legitimate choice here. Is a cadet Habsburg-Lorraine crowned? It's unlikely that a Bohemian magnate would be elevated to the spot without causing issues within the Bohemian nobility and a native Czech may be undesirable with the Prussians and Pangermans that would support the takeover. Is a member of another German house put in place? That won't be a popular move either.

Either way, the Prussian/German presence will cause severe issues in the long term (hindsight, though). This is, of course, ignoring the fact that Prussia is snatching Austria's richest and most developped crownland...

Finally, I want to point out the issues related to the seemingly-obvious/'natural' Russian annexation of Galicia into Congress Poland. It seems obvious that the Russians would want to unite Poland under their protection, but it might not be as obvious as you might think: Annexing Galicia dismantles the post-Partitions system and destroys it completely. One of the reasons why Polish uprisings were unsuccessful was because they always had to fight three Great Powers that had no intentions to give in. The reason is simple: Stability. The Polish situation ensured that neither of partitioners had an upper hand in the region, reducing the likelyhood of them going to war. It was a precarious balance none of them wanted to destroy. If Russia takes Galicia, then nothing stops Russia from taking Prussia's partition as well, reuniting Poland under their protection and, at least in theory, unrevocably tilting the balance towards Russia in Central Europe. At least, until Russia trips and Poland takes advantage of a reversal, but it doesn't change the fact that the stability of the region is going to be shattered for a long time. In short, Prussia would lose too much in letting Russia take Galicia and puts them at a severe geopolitical disadvantage.


Honestly I think a Prussian annexation of Sudetenland/North Bohemia would benefit the Habsburgs in the long term. With this annexation the German speakers dominance of Bohemia is over. This remove a source of conflict between the Czechs and Vienna. Next the loss of the industries of this area, means the Austrian state are forced to adopt policies to spread industries elsewhere in the empire.
 
Honestly I think a Prussian annexation of Sudetenland/North Bohemia would benefit the Habsburgs in the long term. With this annexation the German speakers dominance of Bohemia is over. This remove a source of conflict between the Czechs and Vienna. Next the loss of the industries of this area, means the Austrian state are forced to adopt policies to spread industries elsewhere in the empire.
Agree entirely with you on this.
 
Honestly I think a Prussian annexation of Sudetenland/North Bohemia would benefit the Habsburgs in the long term. With this annexation the German speakers dominance of Bohemia is over. This remove a source of conflict between the Czechs and Vienna. Next the loss of the industries of this area, means the Austrian state are forced to adopt policies to spread industries elsewhere in the empire.
If the Prussians only take parts of Bohemia, then it's not too bad. Prague and Moravia are the important industrial bits of the crownland. The worst they lose is a lot of manpower. You're correct otherwise.
 
Anyways, for the of the argument as OP insists, the idea of Prussia taking Bohemia as Wilhelm wanted is definitely interesting and, in my opinion, might completely change the other German States' relationship with Prussia depending on how they handle the new land. Is it directly annexed into Prussia or is it admitted into the North German Federation as a 'separate' state? The direct and obivious consequence of either is a lot of very angry Czechs. After all, the Bohemian elite wanted autonomy in Austria in part to avoid becoming part of Prussia/Germany or Russia. The status of the Czechs is now likely in danger depending on how the Prussians deal with the situation and Czech national development.

One point. Iirc, in 1866 the Bohemian Diet still had a German majority. Only after falling out with his German Liberal ministry did FJ bring in count Taafe, who rearranged it electoral system to give a Czech majority.

So a separate Bohemia could be a little bit like Belgium, where the Walloons ran things despite being outnumbered by the Flemings.
 
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