1866: Greater Germany triumphant!

General Zod

Banned
I'm not aware that the Iron Chancellor was a believer in the "Gross Deutschland" idea for an alternate reason ...

He was not a believer in the sense that he did not aggressively pushed for the breakup of A-H (his one glaring mistake) on his own initiative, but he was supremely talented to acknowledge and exploit an opportunity, or react to an emerging necessity, when he saw it. He well knew that the supreme interest of Prussia is best served by making Germany as strong as he can without triggering a general European war. Likewise, a collapsing Hapsburg empire is a serious threat to the safety of Prussia and Germany and the only best remedy is to partition it with Russia, Hungary, and Italy, which strengthens Prussia and Germany in many important ways. His mindfulness of the geopolitical issues involved were utterly unclouded by idiotic bygone notions of romantic solidarity between conservative monarchies or Protestant nations, only fit for 16th-17th Century Europe. To make Germany and Prussia strong he would have happily allied with the Pope or Karl Marx if need be. Therefore, my PoD stands.

Prussia had always seen herself as champion of the Protestant Cause in continental Europe. And in fact, it was the Prussian King, Frederick William III who in 1829 forced a consolidation of the Reformed (Calvinist) and Lutheran churches in Prussia, partly to present a more unite front to the power of the Roman church in Europe and Germany (as well as Prussia).

Former generation lousy Prussian statemanship and their terrible failures of 1848-50. To assume Bismarck is going to follow their own pathetic scale of priorities is to make a terrible injustice to the man. It's like giving Lincoln the priorities of GWB. Bismarck well knows that the interest of Prussia in mid-late 19th century Europe is one alone, to take the lead of German unification and make it as successful as possible. Either that or be a) swept away by national-liberal revolution b) swallowed up by France or Russia c) both.

The creation of a Gross Deutschland would seriously compromise that ability and create an almost 50/50 religious split among the resulting political entity.

That might be a concern in his agenda but only as something that is going to be addressed with the right political countermeasures. OTL he was exceedingly able to manipulate, bribe, and bully the German Catholic states and parties to do pretty much everything important he wanted. Adding Austria and Czechia does not radically change the equation, a 45% Catholic minority is something he can deal with and no exceeding effort. Again, thinking otherwise is to make an injustice to the man. That speaking about the need to keep the political leadership of united Grossdeutschland Empire strictly in the hands of himself and the Prussian elite, which is going to be his only real concern here. Anyway, if Bismarck would concern about containing the power of the Pope, his only real strong friend left in Europe is Napoleon III and he's going to have a reckoning with him anyway for far more pressing reasons. Killing the Hapsburg Empire and bringing Austrian catholics under the control of the Junkers strenghtens the interests of Protestants in Europe far much better than otherwise.


I believe research will uncover this issue as one of the reasons the redeemed Reichsland Elsass-Lothringen was treated almost like a colony rather than a new Land in the Reich between 1870 and 1919.

Only if such research is made from the writings of religious crackpots (no offense intended). :eek: Elsass-Lothringen got the deal it did for political (its loyalty to the German state was questionable, especially just after annexation, albeit nowhere as much as fanatical French revanchism thought) and military reasons (Bismarck and the generals wanted a border area with France that was under the direct control of the central government, since Bavaria kept partial control of her army in peacetime).
 
But what if it had been different? What if King William, Bismarck, and the Prussian military had gone on to march into Vienna and conquer Austria? What if Austria was then partitioned with the German states annexed to Germany and the creation of a subserviant and allied Kingdom of Hungary? What if, instead of a KleinDeutschland, they had created a powerful GrossDeutschland? What would be the future outcome of Europe and the world then?

There would have been a gigantic war that would have rent Europe and ruined the continent. Just try to imagine for a moment Austria-Hungary dissappearing, with Germany annexing the most productive areas. That would horrendously upset the balance of power and send the other powers scrambling for compensation, and/or to cut Germany down to size.
 
21st Centrury thinking has no place in the 19th century.

I must disagree with the General's offhand dismissal of the religious angle offered by my post.

The 30 Years War (a largely religious conflict) decimated central Europe's infrastructure and population (German lands mostly) and the impact of the "Frieden von Wesphalen" shaped much of the geopolitics of the next 200 years. (Think Mutter Courage - B. Brecht).

In fact the French wrested Alsace away during the twilight of the conflict when they entered on the Protestant side, adding to the string of French encroachments in the northeast boundary..

Those impacts, ideas and entrenched hostilitites were (and were until WW 11) just under the surface.

BEP
 

General Zod

Banned
There would have been a gigantic war that would have rent Europe and ruined the continent. Just try to imagine for a moment Austria-Hungary dissappearing, with Germany annexing the most productive areas. That would horrendously upset the balance of power and send the other powers scrambling for compensation, and/or to cut Germany down to size.

Only if Prussia tries to do it by march into Vienna and brutish force. Not by following my PoD. Please check the following facts: the government of A-H has largely collapsed on its own so Prussia has the justification of restoring order; it acts on the invitation of the governments of Austria and Hungary and with the support of the majority of the population of the former Habsburg Empire; it has the full diplomatic support of two other medium powers (Italy and Hungary) and another great power (Russia); German reunification is proceeding in a largely orderly way with the consent of the German states and the enthused assent of the German people, currently in a flag-waving sweep of nationalistic fervor.

A declaration of war by a third power not only lacks a casus belli but it is also quite foolhardy since it would mean fighting a coalition by Russia (besides their share of the partition, Bismarck can buy the alliance of Russia by supporting her denunciation of the Crimean War peace treaties), Greater Germany, Hungary, and Italy. France tried to do something similar in 1813-15 and was crushed like pulp. Great Britain was fairly sympathetic to the German and Italian unifications anyway, is currently in her "splendid isolation" pahse and focused on building her colonial empire rather more than continental Europe. They are currently little interested in picking fights in Europe unless it involves a threat to their Middle East communications with India and certainly is not going to pick a losing fight just for the sake of preventing various Germans, Hungarians, and Italians from going where they want to go instead of the anarchy of a failed dynastic state. Plus the balance of power is radically shifted, not destroyed, by the creation of Greater Germany. France and Russia are not going to evaporate any time soon.
 
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This just can't happen. Russia's acquisition of Galicia and Austrian Poland is irrelevant in the balance of power to the Germans gaining a gigantic population and most of the economic and industrial resources of the Hapsburg state. This is suicide for Russia, and there is no chance in Hell France will sit by while BOTH Germany and Italy greatly magnify their power by swallowing up territory, nor is Britain going to remain aloof from such a massive rearrangement of Europe. Upsetting the balance of power like this is absolutely a very strong casus belli for all the other powers.

The reason Hungary remained in the monarchy in the first place is that they had no chance of holding onto the non-Magyar portons of their Kingdom without the empire.

In OTL, it was Russia that came to the Hapsburgs' aid by subduing Hungary - surely there was a reason for this. One reason was surely the knowledge that the German Hapsburg territories would fall to Germany and give the Germans hegemony over Europe.

Also, the total dismemberment of a massive empire like that is not going to be so simple as "you get this, we get that". The Balkans are still reeling from the impact of the much more limited and orderly dismemberment of Ottoman possessions in Europe, and this led directly to WWI.

In this case, you will have to deal with Slav nationalism, Rumanian aspirations, the Czechs, etc., or in short, oy, vey!

Only if Prussia tries to do it by brutish force. Not by following my PoD. Please check the following facts: the government of A-H has largely collapsed on its own so Prussia has the justification of restoring order; it acts on the invitation of the governments of Austria and Hungary and with the support of the majority of the population of the former Habsburg Empire; it has the full diplomatic support of two other medium powers (Italy and Hungary) and another great power (Russia); German reunification is proceeding in a largely orderly way with the consent of the German states and the enthused assent of the German people, currently in a flag-waving sweep of nationalistic fervor.

A declaration of war by a third power not only lacks a casus belli but it is also quite foolhardy since it would mean fighting a coalition by Russia (besides their share of the partition, Bismarck can buy the alliance of Russia by supporting her denunciation of the Crimean War peace treaties), Greater Germany, Hungary, and Italy. France tried to do something similar in 1813-15 and was crushed like pulp. Great Britain was fairly sympathetic to the German and Italian unifications anyway and is not going to pick a losing fight just for the sake of preventing various Germans, Hungarians, and Italians from going where they want to go instead of the anarchy of failed dynastic state.
 

General Zod

Banned
Russia's acquisition of Galicia and Austrian Poland is irrelevant in the balance of power to the Germans gaining a gigantic population and most of the economic and industrial resources of the Hapsburg state. This is suicide for Russia,

Russia also removes one of her two main rivals for control of the Balkans, something that Prussian-led Greater Germany would be less interested to mess in than the Hapsburg.

and there is no chance in Hell France will sit by while BOTH Germany and Italy greatly magnify their power by swallowing up territory,

France is welcome to have their proud Napoleonic butts handed over on a plate by fighting the Germany/Italy/Hungary/Russia coalition.

nor is Britain going to remain aloof from such a massive rearrangement of Europe.

Which does not impinge on their main strategic interest in Europe, control on the Straits. OTOH, if they force the partition coalition to war, they will be swiftly kicked out of continental Europe when the colation marches into Paris and the Russo-German-Italian coalition free to dismember the Ottoman Empire as they fancy. They really don't want Russia be given a free hand in the Balkans with the blessing of outraged German/Hungarian/Italian nationalists. Balance of power does not mean the UK picking hopeless fights in Europe which indirectly threaten the Empire for the sake of unsustainable status quo.

The reason Hungary remained in the monarchy in the first place is that they had no chance of holding onto the non-Magyar portons of their Kingdom without the empire.

With a strong German and Italian alliance, and as long as Russia stays true to the deal, this is very questionable.

In OTL, it was Russia that came to the Hapsburgs' aid by subduing Hungary - surely there was a reason for this. One reason was surely the knowledge that the German Hapsburg territories would fall to Germany and give the Germans hegemony over Europe.

1848 Russia still believed in international legitimist monarchical solidarity as the main prop for her post-1815 hegemony over Europe. The Crimean War (and lack of Hapsburg aid to them in their hour of need) showed them that legitimist solidarity was dead and forever disllusioned them from having any stake in the survival of the Hapsburg Empire.

Also, the total dismemberment of a massive empire like that is not going to be so simple as "you get this, we get that".

Yes, but this is about long-term ATL trends, not the short-term success of the diplomatic settlement. IOW, hindsight, not a concern for the diplomats of 1867 Europe. "you get this, we get that" is exactly how they addressed resettlements of the balance of power.

The Balkans are still reeling from the impact of the much more limited and orderly dismemberment of Ottoman possessions in Europe, and this led directly to WWI.

Who said that TTL is not going to have their Balkan troubles, and eventually WWI, further down the line ?? But in the short term, the partition settlement stabilizes the area much better than the collapsing Hapsburg could ever do. The settlement can only destabilize if either Russia starts supporting Slav/Rumanian nationalism in Greater Hungary, or Hungary starts expanding in the Balkans, or both.

In this case, you will have to deal with Slav nationalism, Rumanian aspirations, the Czechs, etc., or in short, oy, vey!

The Czech are not a problem, really. The German Empire is infinitely more able to keep them into line than the doddering Hapsburg construction. "Congrats, now you are a proud member of the new and improved Holy Roman Empire, as in days of yore, only now it's a real, functional state. Polish your German and be a productive, loyal citizen and you too can have a fair share in the most prosperous and powerful nation of Europe. It's where you were meant to belong all the time since Charlemagne, anyway. Just don't get any uppity, foolish ideas like the world really needs one such thing as the Czech language or you will learn how efficient and ruthless German police and army can really be". Barring total defeat of Grossdeutchsland in a general European war, they will stay into line, like Posen Poles, and Germanization of both may eventually occur to some extent if Grossdeutchsland most likely wins the World Wars. Ditto for Romania, they are far too weak to pick a fight with Greater Hungary supported by Greater Germany and Italy, so they will behave. Serbia... well, by 1867 they have far more pressing deals, like getting independence from the Ottomans, as nationalistic aspirations go. They will be a problem down the line, although, they always do.

Oh yes, the moment Russia breaks the partition deal by giving support for South Slav and Rumanian nationalists in Hungary, their alliance with Germany dissolves and Europe starts the path to WWI. Isn't it how WWI always starts ?
 
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"The Czech are not a problem, really. The German Empire is infinitely more able to keep them into line than the doddering Hapsburg construction. "Congrats, now you are a proud member of the new and improved Holy Roman Empire, as in days of yore, only now it's a real, functional state. Polish your German and be a productive, loyal citizen and you too can have a fair share in the most prosperous and powerful nation of Europe. It's where you were meant to belong all the time since Charlemagne, anyway. Just don't get any uppity, foolish ideas like the world really needs one such thing as the Czech language or you will learn how efficient and ruthless German police and army can really be". Barring total defeat of Grossdeutchsland in a general European war, they will stay into line, like Posen Poles, and Germanization of both may eventually occur to some extent if Grossdeutchsland most likely wins the World Wars. Ditto for Romania, they are far too weak to pick a fight with Greater Hungary supported by Greater Germany and Italy, so they will behave. Serbia... well, by 1867 they have far more pressing deals, like getting independence from the Ottomans, as nationalistic aspirations go. They will be a problem down the line, although, they always do.

Oh yes, the moment Russia breaks the partition deal by giving support for South Slav and Rumanian nationalists in Hungary, their alliance with Germany dissolves and Europe starts the path to WWI. Isn't it how WWI always starts?"

Well, except for Bohemia, most of the Czechs would be part of a Greater Hungary allied to Germany.
Russia would have to be appeased with a little land to keep them content.:D
 

General Zod

Banned
Well, except for Bohemia, most of the Czechs would be part of a Greater Hungary allied to Germany.

I suppose you mean Slovaks, here. There are not that many Czechs outside of Bohemia and Moravia, in Europe. And yes, Slovakia would end up in Greater Hungary.

Russia would have to be appeased with a little land to keep them content.:D

Oh, yes, they would get their fair slice in the Habsburg Partition. Galicia, Ruthenia, Bukovina.
 
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