1860 Election goes to the House

[Desmond Hume]

Lots of alternate US Civil War scenarios out there, but I don't recall ever seeing this one.

By my calculations, a candidate in 1860 needed 152 EV's to win, and Lincoln won with 180. Now, most of the states he won in, he won by quite a lot, but he only won New York (35 EV's) by 7 points. Suppose, for some reason, Stephen Douglas does better nationwide, lessening Lincoln's margin of victory in many states and narrowly winning New York. Assuming everything else stays the same the final result is:
Lincoln: 145 EV's
Breckinridge: 72 EV's
Douglas: 47 EV's
Bell: 39 EV's

No one has a majority, and the election goes to the House. What happens next?

 

[DuQuense]

Senate Elects the VP

Hannibal Hamlin - Republican --- 145 EV's

Originally a “Jackson Democrat,” a follower of Andrew Jackson, Hannibal Hamlin joined the new Republican party in 1856. He was nominated by the Republicans for the Vice Presidency in 1860 to provide regional balance on the ticket (Presidential candidate Abraham Lincoln was from Illinois). As a strong antislavery voice, he also provided ideological balance to the more moderate Lincoln. As Vice President, Hamlin was closely associated with the radical wing of the Republican party in Congress, pressing its case with Lincoln and supporting congressional efforts to emancipate the slaves.

Joseph Lane - Southern Democrat--- 72 EV's

Lane was nominated for Vice President by the pro-slavery southern wing of the Democratic Party in 1860 alongside Presidential candidate John C. Breckinridge, the most ardently pro-slavery candidate in the election; thus the Breckinridge-Lane ticket was the only one to appear on the ballot in some Southern states.

With his defeat as Vice President and the beginning of the Civil War, Lane's pro-slavery and pro-secessionist sympathies effectively ended his political career.[2] However, Lane made headlines in his final day of proceedings as a U.S. Senator with an exchange of speeches between himself and Tennessee Senator and future president Andrew Johnson. In February 1861, Johnson made an ardent stand in favor of the Union and warned against the Southern states attempting to force his home state into secession; when a referendum on secession in Tennessee failed shortly thereafter, generally credited to Johnson's speech, Lane took the Senate floor on March 2 to accuse the southern Senator of having "sold his birthright." Johnson's response was to suggest that Lane was a hypocrite for accusing Johnson of betraying his heritage when Lane so staunchly supported a movement of active treason against the United States.[4]

Edward Everett - Constitutional Union--- 47 EV's

More interested in politics than in an academic career, Everett entered the U.S. House of Representatives in 1824, serving until 1835. A spokesman of the conservative Whig party, he was closely associated with Daniel Webster, the Whig senator from Massachusetts. Everett labored to preserve the Bank of the United States and adopted pro-Southern views on issues relating to slavery. In 1835 he was elected governor of Massachusetts by a coalition of Whigs and Anti-Masons; he served until 1839. During this time he aided in creating a state board of education and in establishing the first normal schools.

Appointed minister to Great Britain by President William Henry Harrison, Everett did much to improve diplomatic relations between the two countries. The British admired this elegant, cultured, and charming ambassador. Recalled by President James Polk in 1845, Everett became president of Harvard the next year, but he disliked the post and resigned in 1849. During the last 4 months of President Millard Fillmore's administration, Everett was secretary of state and gained momentary fame for his sharp note rejecting a proposal that France and the United States jointly guarantee Spain's possession of Cuba. In 1853 he entered the Senate but resigned 15 months later in the face of public protest over his failure (he was ill at the time) to vote against the Kansas-Nebraska Bill. This ended his political career, for many New Englanders doubted his integrity.

Everett began to lecture widely, raising $70,000 for the Mount Vernon Ladies Association, which sought to preserve George Washington's home. In 1860 he was vice-presidential candidate on the Constitutional Union ticket. During the Civil War he spoke extensively in support of the Union cause. His most famous wartime address, delivered at the dedication of the Gettysburg Cemetery on Nov. 19, 1863, was much admired but has been overshadowed by Lincoln's simpler and more moving phrases. Worn out by his activities in behalf of the Union, Everett died on Jan. 15, 1865.

Herschel Johnson - Democrat--- 39 EV's

He unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 1843 and for Governor in 1847, and was finally appointed to fill the United States Senate seat vacated by the resignation of Walter T. Colquitt. Johnson served in the Senate from February 4, 1848 to March 3, 1849, but was not a candidate for election to the seat. He returned to Georgia and served as a circuit court judge from 1849 to 1853. In 1853, he was elected Governor of Georgia, then re-elected in 1855. After he finished his term as governor in 1857, Johnson County, Georgia was named in his honor. In 1860, when the Democratic Party refused to add the support of extending slavery to the western territories, the party split. To try to recapture some southern votes, Johnson was chosen as the northern Democrats' nominee as the running mate of presidential candidate Stephen A. Douglas.

In 1861 he served as a delegate to the state secession convention, and opposed secession from the Union. When it became clear that Georgia would secede, however, he acquiesced out of loyalty to his state and served as a Senator of the Second Confederate Congress from 1862 to the end of the war in 1865. In the Confederate Senate, he opposed conscription and the suspension of habeas corpus. After the Civil War, Johnson was a leader in the Reconstruction and was named head of the Georgia constitutional convention. Upon Georgia's readmission to the Union in 1866, he was chosen as a U.S. Senator, but was disallowed from serving due to his involvement with the rebellion. He again became a circuit court judge in 1873 and served until his death in 1880 in Louisville, Georgia.

 

[Wolfpaw]

Wasn't there already a thread about this? It was worked out that Bell would probably have been chosen as a compromise candidate since the North hated Douglas and Breckinridge and the South hated Lincoln and both were okay with Bell.

 

[freivolk]

Wasn't there already a thread about this? It was worked out that Bell would probably have been chosen as a compromise candidate since the North hated Douglas and Breckinridge and the South hated Lincoln and both were okay with Bell.

Isn´t it so, that the house can just chose between the first three candidates. This would leave Bell out. We could end with President Breckinridge.

 

[robertp6165]

Wasn't there already a thread about this? It was worked out that Bell would probably have been chosen as a compromise candidate since the North hated Douglas and Breckinridge and the South hated Lincoln and both were okay with Bell.

Yes, there was. I posted one here.

 

[robertp6165]

Isn´t it so, that the house can just chose between the first three candidates. This would leave Bell out. We could end with President Breckinridge.

I doubt Breckingridge could win. As I said on the other thread...

Well, voting in the House would be done by States, with each State having one vote, and a majority of votes (50% +1) required to win. There were 15 Slave States and 18 Free States in the Union at that time. So at least 17 States would have to vote for a candidate for him to win the election in this case. If every Slave State went for Breckinridge, one of the other candidates could still win if he managed to unify 17 of 18 remaining States, and in the general election, Lincoln carried 18 States.

However, the interesting thing is that the votes in the House were not bound to be cast in accordance with the results of the general election, and the Democrats controlled the House votes of three of the 18 States which voted for Lincoln (Illinois, California, and Oregon) in the general election. So the question is, will they fall into line with the majority of their party, and vote for Breckinridge, or will they follow the popular vote in their States and go for Lincoln?

Now, if not all of States with Democratically controlled House delegations go for Breckinridge, but none of them go for Lincoln (say California, Oregon and Illinois go for Douglas), then neither Lincoln nor Breckinridge will win, and then the horsetrading begins. It would be interesting to see how that played out.

Another thing that could happen is the Northern Democratic leadership decide that the 3 States who went for Lincoln in OTL, but whose Congressional delegations are controlled by Democrats (Illinois, California, and Oregon) are to vote for Douglas and hold firm. Eventually, after several ballots produce a deadlock between Lincoln and Breckinridge, Douglas is offered as a compromise candidate to the Breckinridge camp by the Northern Democrats ("he's better than Lincoln!"). But I think the Southern Democrats were too adamantly against Douglas to accept such a compromise.

If that happens, it might actually prove impossible for the House to elect a President. The 12th amendment states that...

"And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President."

In that case, we may end up with President Herschel V. Johnson.

I think the Senate voting for Hannibal Hamlin and Joseph Lane (the Republican and Southern Democrat candidates for VP) basically deadlocks, just like the House voting for Lincoln and Breckinridge does on the Presidential side. However, unlike Stephen Douglas, Hershell V. Johnson is a Southerner (he was from Georgia) and not anathema to the Southern Democrats. So if Johnson is offered as a compromise candidate in the election for VP, the States voting for Lane probably switch to Johnson. And since the Presidential election remains deadlocked, with no resolution in this scenario, Herschel Vespasian Johnson becomes President on March 4, 1861.

 

[The Professor]

Ok, assuming Herschel V Johnson is President what happens next?
I assume there'll be a new amendment to make sure the House doesn't get deadlocked again?
And will there be a secession crisis with a southerner in the White House?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Breckenridge and the Southern Democrats have no choice in the matter. If they don't accept Douglas as a compromise candidate then as the Senate has chosen a vice president Hannibal Hamlin becomes president.

So the question is whether they want Douglas or Lincoln's running mate.

Since Douglas and Bell will certainly throw their support to each other, depending on which one came in fourth and is out of the contest, Breckenridge's position isn't as strong as it appears.

 

[robertp6165]

Breckenridge and the Southern Democrats have no choice in the matter. If they don't accept Douglas as a compromise candidate then as the Senate has chosen a vice president Hannibal Hamlin becomes president.

What makes you think the Senate is going to choose Hamlin as VP? He is in no better position to clinch victory in the Senate voting than Lincoln is in the House voting. Indeed, he is in a worse position. Hamlin can be sure of the votes of 6 States whose Senate delegations are controlled by the Republicans...Massachussets, Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, New York, and Iowa. For the remaining 12 States which voted for the Lincoln/Hamlin ticket in the general election, 3 of them have Senate Delegations which are controlled by the Democrats, and the other nine are split between the two parties and could swing either way.

I think, as stated in a previous post, that the Senate voting will deadlock between Hamlin and Lane, and that Herschel V. Johnson comes out as the compromise candidate.

 

[robertp6165]

Ok, assuming Herschel V Johnson is President what happens next?
I assume there'll be a new amendment to make sure the House doesn't get deadlocked again?
And will there be a secession crisis with a southerner in the White House?

As for whether there will be a new amendment proposed to make sure the House doesn't get deadlocked again (maybe change the 12th amendment so only the top 2 candidates get considered, instead of the top 3), that is very possible. Whether that will get ratified, I am not sure, but it may very well.

As for whether there will be a secession crisis, I think not, at least not before 1865, unless it's a case of the Northern States leaving the Union. Johnson will be fully acceptable to the vast majority of Southerners, and the South won't leave.

As for what a Herschel V. Johnson Presidency would look like, that's kind of hard to say. He was a supporter of the right to hold slaves, like all successful Southern politicians of the day, and had been one of those who advocated secession during the crisis of 1850. But by 1860 he had reversed his opinion on secession, believing that slavery was safer inside the Union than it was outside it. What his positions were on such issues as popular sovereignty, and other burning issues of the day, I have not been able to find...none of the articles about him I have seen talk much about that.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

robert, the north won't be leaving the Union since time is on their side, and I don't think the Senate votes as the House does, one vote per state as decided solely by the majority party on each state delegation, although I could be wrong. Of course, if it does then either one party has 100% of the Senate seats in a state or a deadlock.

This will still leave the Democratic Party divided and substantial bitterness between the northern and southern wings, while delaying secession by at least four years.

Since time is against the South some may remember this as a disastrous development, thinking that a clean break after Lincoln won in 1860 might have left secession a better chance. In 1864, they face a Union with @800,000 new immigrants, a dramatically improved navy with enough ships already scheduled to increase the USN by 50%, probably the first ironclads in service and a real chance that one or more slave states has voted to end slavery(Missouri most likely). Oh, and the British have further increased the percentage of cotton they can get from Egypt and India.

 

[robertp6165]

robert, the north won't be leaving the Union since time is on their side, and I don't think the Senate votes as the House does, one vote per state as decided solely by the majority party on each state delegation, although I could be wrong. Of course, if it does then either one party has 100% of the Senate seats in a state or a deadlock.

The State Legislature would break the deadlock for any Senate delegation which was deadlocked by instructing it's delegation how to vote. And as how THAT would go, is just about impossible to say, without looking at the composition of every single State legislature involved...assuming such data is even available...which is a task for someone with a lot more energy than I have at this moment.

EDIT...upon checking the procedures in the 12th Amendment again, I find that, unlike in the Presidential polling by the House, where the voting is done by State, with each getting one vote, all the Senators are allowed to vote for VP. And where the House can choose between the three highest vote getters in the electoral vote, the Senate is only allowed to choose between the top two. So it would be a contest between Hamlin and Lane, and Johnson won't be an option after all. So the Northern Democratic Senators have a choice between going for Hamlin, or Lane. Depending on how that splits up, it's hard to say which would come out on top. What is certain is that Hamlin is in the weaker position.

We probably end up with President Joseph Lane. Too bad...I rather liked the idea of Herschel V. Johnson.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

robert, robert, I wuz just starting to have respect for ya...

Get with the state legislature breakdown!



Given how Douglas felt about the election being thrown by the Deep South it's likely if he has the influence that he throws the election to Hamlin over his hated enemy's running mate(Breckenridge, NOT Lincoln), and the GOP may not even need votes in the Senate to begin with. What was the party breakdown at the time?

To Northern Democrats Bell's running mate might be seen as a compromise and Johnson more so but Lane would be considered a complete surrender to the people who split the party in the first place.