1860 Election Deadlock

As we all know, the 1860 Election was a key one for the US. While Lincoln won a majority of the vote in enough states to ensure victory, I'd like to consider the possibilities of a deadlocked election along the lines of 1824.

Here's the scenario: Breckenridge adds OR to his tally. Douglas picks off CA, the 4 remaining electors in NJ, as well as IL and (the biggest stretch) IN. The result with these changes is as follows:
Lincoln 145
Breckinridge 67
Bell 39
Douglas 44

Under these results, the election would proceed to Congress between Lincoln, Breckinridge, and Douglas; assuming that no secessions took place, the breakdown in the House, as to number of delegations held, would be 12 Republican, 12 Democrat, 4 Unionist, 1 Split (Conn. split 2R/2D), and 3 either Dem or Unionist (those are VA, TN, and LA, which retained House delegations following secession). Of the non-slave states, CT is split while IL, OR, and NJ are Dem, and RI is "Unionist".

The Senate would be Democratic-controlled, but with the complication of the VP choice being between a Republican (Hamlin) and a Southern Democrat (Joseph Lane) and 7 Dems being from non-slave states (one of those being from NJ, which was part-slave and part-free; some slaves existed in Southern NJ, but not many) while the makeup is 36-29-1; doing a sectional breakout, it's 29 Slave State Dems, 29 Republicans, 7 Free State Dems, and 1 Unionist from MD.

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As an added bonus, for discussion fodder, it is entirely possible for Bell to pick off Maryland from Breckinridge, swapping Bell into the House voting at Douglas's expense. However, both being the arguably "moderate" candidate, the result is probably similar.

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Under either circumstance, however, the Republicans lack a majority in either the House or the Senate. Simply put, what happens from here assuming that all secession is held back until at least the vote in Congress (though talk is probably running hot on all sides)?
 
A disturbing possibility, to say the least. I can see a couple potential paths:

1) The Anarchy created by the scenario leads to some kind of separation between North and South, rather than Civil War.

2) As states secede, Lincoln finally cobbles together a victory, which makes more states secede.

2b) More time, however, may let Douglas cobble together a coalition instead. Coopeartion between the Border states might allow this as well as Douglas' influence in Congress. However, at least the Deep South will have already seceded. And of course, the Republicans will be rabid that the election has been stolen from them. Another potential for anarchy.


It's hard to be more specific because you haven't suggest why the votes would split different than they did OTL. Your tally seems fairly implausible, IMO, particularly with Lincoln losing IL and IN. You might begin with a different nominee, either Seward or Salmon Chase being more succesfull because of different maneuvers at the Republican convention.
 
Well, IL is a plausible flip. As it was, it went for Lincoln by 4% (51-47 or so); it was Douglas's home state as well, after all. CA and OR are as well; Lincoln won them by relatively narrow margins, and largely due to badly split opposition (the two Dems ran decently close to one another, especially in CA). And as it was, NJ split its electors. Literally all that requires is more Dems checking off all of the boxes for Douglas electors.

Indiana is the stretch here, since the GOP margin was wider.

As to why, my first thought would be that the Republican campaign stumbles and/or Douglas's campaign is more aggressive. This could easily be aided by some of the handful of Bell/Breckinridge supporters voting for him and/or those two being kept off the ballot in IN. Support for those two was thin enough in large parts of the North that missing the ballot is entirely plausible. Also possible would be the fusion deals in NY, NJ, and RI getting expanded into the Midwest. Under either circumstance, you'd really only need a swing of about 2-3% (or, in other words, about 6,000 voters in two states to switch from Lincoln to Douglas; I'm not sure how bad voter fraud was in the Midwest at the time, but at least in Chicago, which was already over 100,000 residents at the time, I can see it happening).

Therefore, let us assume that Republican efforts are just a bit weaker in these states against an agreed-upon fusion deal like that in NY and so forth resulting in Douglas doing a tad better, and throw in some old-fashioned voter fraud to boot. Douglas's people (not him personally; Breckinridge allies under this scenario are a -very- good option here, too, since they'd be from Kentucky) stuff some ballot boxes along the Ohio River. In short, amid ballot access issues for Bell and Breckinridge, a little tactical voting in the West, and some old fashioned voter fraud, Lincoln loses just enough ground to Douglas to drop IN and IL on top of the others.

Edit: Yes, I'm basing a timeline on more voter fraud in Indiana It was rampant later in the century; considering that there were people getting killed in Kansas over this, though, I think it's not unreasonable.
 
I'm thinking that in this case, Douglas has the best shot given his Congressional connections. This is ironic, since he has the fewest electoral votes, but I think he'd be able to wrange the support of the Unionst delegations, since Bell won't be a candidate in the House (only the top 3 there). This is heavily influenced by the timing of secession, I think (which may also be delayed by the confusion of the election going to the new House). I think South Carolina happens on time, in December 1860; as does the lower South. The Upper South and Border states are the big question marks.

I think there's probably a big difference if Douglas is a candidate in the House or not, since it will effect his ability to marshall votes as Clay did in 1824. I'm not sure which way this tilts. And of course, all of this is probably stressful enough that Douglas might die on schedule in 1861!

This will make the outcome of the Senate choice very important and may further compound the chaos.

I almost like the idea of Douglas winning in the House but then dying in the next summer.
 
*nods*
That sounds like a reasonable conclusion to me. Douglas has connections, and he's probably someone that most of the concerned parties could at least swallow. Granted, I've heard opinions that Lincoln would have preferred Breckenridge (at least he stood for something, while Douglas didn't stand for much), but I'll go with some of the Republican Congressmen supporting him along with some of the Southerners on about the 30th ballot to try and work something out of the mess.

One point: The House votes in early January. Only SC pulled out ahead of the formal announcement of the vote, I believe; the others would probably hold out until the vote resolved, and I don't know if you'd get a large-scale pullout under Douglas. SC? Sure. But the other ten states? Probably not all ten, and quite possibly only 5 or 6. To the rest, Douglas would have been a stomachable compromise; he got respectable votes in the South. He was in third place there, yes, but at the same time he was running fourth with about 8-20% in most of the states rather than being locked off the ballot or knocked into a weak fourth as Lincoln was everywhere but DE amongst the slave states.

One humorous result would, of course, be for SC to pull out...and then have Breckinridge win.

Finally, I goofed on the electoral tally by ommitting SC. It should be:
Lincoln 145
Breckinridge 75
Bell 39
Douglas 44

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When the matter comes to the House, there's likely a messy split between Breckinridge and Douglas among the Dems. Douglas gets most of the Northern ones, letting him pick up IL; OR probably flips between them.

The border states are trickier; a bunch of these went for Bell, and much of the South -was- a close match between those two. Bell's supporters are probably more inclined towards Douglas, putting odd pressure on the relevant House delegations; a Bell-Breckenridge-Lincoln fight is made all the more interesting as a result. As it stands, though, the mixed pressure probably causes some odd splits.

The contest is almost assuredly going to run many ballots absent a "first ballot miracle" like happened in 1824; it is very possible that several of the border delegations end up splitting between Douglas and Breckenridge on several occasions, while Lincoln might pick up IL on some ballots due to the narrow split in the delegation.

The key is that there are 15 delegations out of 33 that Lincoln will -not- be winning (14 if SC secedes -and- all the Congressmen withdraw; one or two might stay a while for the voting, simply to wield their power...after all, it -did- take a while for many of the Confederate Senators to be pushed out). This requires him to basically sweep the rest of the country, which is going to be no small feat if war will be the result.
 
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OK, what happens here, I believe, is that the #4 choice throws his support to a number of his choosing, to try to get half of the votes.

Now, this might result in Lincoln simply grabbing the Presidency, but suppose that Breckinridge offers to play kingmaker for either Douglas or Bell--and Douglas and Bell form a coalition Union ticket, with Breckinridge tipping his support for the 'Union Party'.

So, now you have a Douglas- Bell Coalition moving into office. They are a minority government and owing to politics, they are weaker than any president since John Tyler. The Unionists might be able to grab some support in the congressional elections, but history will forever judge these moderates on whether they are able to solve the crisis of their times--the splintering of the Union.

By 1860, the Deep South is ready for a fight, and Kansas is a terrible mess and might well expand out of the territory and beyond. Politically, only one nation-Russia-is truly friendly with the Union. France and the United Kingdom look opportunistically at the weakness of the United States.

Stephen Douglas is hardly the man to handle this situation--he's pretty much water--takes the shape of his container. Still, one would hope that his cabinet was capable; logical choices would include John Bell (Obviously, got to reward the coalition partner), John Crittenden (author of the proposed compromise to avert the Civil War), Horatio Seymour (NY Governor) and James Guthrie, another Unionist Leader.

Douglas and Bell are going to be discredited--they simply don't have enough political clout to do much. Their election is a boon, however, for the North and the pending civil war. Should the South Secede during the Douglas-Bell Presidency, it will only be the Deep South that does so and the war would be swift. More likely, the South will attempt to increase its hand, utterly paralyzing the Moderates, while the Republicans do the same.

Kansas continues to burn. After 4 years of continued violence, Missouri and Arkansas face repeated raids as well. While the US Army can quell the violence in neighboring states, attempts to restore order can not stop widespread fighting in all fronts.

By 1864, Douglas and Bell run for re-election. But Lincoln's runs again, and this time Lincoln's strength is so strong as to win the Presidency outright (much of the moderates have been polarized as a result of the Douglas-Bell). Two things are sure though, even if their presidency was a total waste of time and a true failure to avert the civil war that was to come, it was both shorter and had more support because the strength of the union was ironically greater.
 
Well, there's a catch here: Bell can't become VP. Only Hannibal Hamlin and Joseph Lane can. Bell might get a seat in the cabinet, but he can't get the number two slot. Blame the (poorly designed) twelfth amendment. Heck, even Douglas's VP isn't eligible for the slot.
 
Timeline worked out thus far:

November 7, 1860

The Union woke up the day following the 1860 election expecting to hear of a Lincoln victory. Most sources had expected this for most of the election season; what came out of the election, however, was far different.

Lincoln had lost every single slave state. This was not surprising in the least. He'd also managed to lose California and Oregon, again hardly surprising in retrospect. New Jersey and Illinois also fell: New Jersey by approximately four points, and Illinois by two. The biggest surprises were in Indiana and Ohio: Lincoln won Ohio by less than a thousand votes over Douglas, but lost Indiana by half that margin.

The election returns were marred by widespread rumors of ballot boxes being stuffed along the Ohio River and in Chicago, as the Breckinridge-Douglas-Bell fusion ticket saw a number of Kentuckians cross the river around the time of the election. Similar rumors of fraud were heard in Missouri and Iowa, and voter intimidation was undoubtedly rampant on both sides of the Ohio.[FONT=&quot][1][/FONT]

As the final votes were counted, and in many cases re-counted, over the next week it was clear that Lincoln had failed to secure an outright victory in the Electoral College by the official tallies. Rumors persist to this day what the actual counts were in the states along the Ohio River, but it is worth noting that in several border counties the number of votes cast exceeded not only the number of registered voters, but in one case also the number of residents.


December, 1860
Charleston, South Carolina

In an overcrowded meeting hall, delegates to the South Carolina Convention met, arguing for hours over whether or not South Carolina should secede from the Union. Tension had been building for several years towards secession, waiting for a spark to trigger it. Now, with the threat of the Republicans winning the Presidency, many of the so-called Fire Eaters were pushing openly for it.

In spite of strong secessionist sentiment in the room, the possibility that Breckinridge would triumph was enough to split the delegates almost evenly. A slim majority in favor of immediate secession could be found; an attempt to table the Ordinance of Secession until after Congress selected a President failed after much heated debate by a vote of 75 in favor to 77 opposed on December 24th[FONT=&quot][2][/FONT]; a motion to adjourn prior to a vote on the Ordinance until after Christmas failed by the same.

In the end, the vote was probably never in doubt; Harper's Weekly records that the atmosphere in the convention was not particularly condusive to dissent. Even still, the vote showed substantial opposition, with 31 of the 152 delegates either voting against the Ordinance or abstaining.[FONT=&quot][3][/FONT]


January, 1861
When Congress met for the formal announcement of the electoral votes, the atmosphere was anything but cordial. Before the voting even began, the Sergeant at Arms was forced to break up a fistfight in the House between two members with long-standing grievances were seated next to each other.

Things did not improve much when the reading of the votes began. When Indiana was called out, shouts of “Fraud!” roared through the chamber from the Republican side. A motion was made by a member from Massachusetts to reject the votes of Indiana as fraudulent, but it failed by a substantial margin. A similar ritual was carried out when Ohio was called, as many Southerners took the occasion of voting irregularities in both states to charge Republicans with attempting to steal Ohio as an excuse for discounting Ohio’s votes. (In retrospect, both parties quite possibly attempted to steal several states in the Midwest, and the Democrats were just more successful…and more blatant…at it than the Republicans.)

When South Carolina came for a vote, the rancor in the chamber was audible outside of the cloakrooms as a number of Republicans sought to discount the votes of that state in light of its secession. Although the vote was largely a technicality (which it was not in the case of Indiana; voiding both sets could conceivably have permitted Lincoln to be elected anyway), it was seen by many as a “test vote”. Slave states voted en masse to retain South Carolina’s delegation, as did most other Democrats along with Unionist Congressmen. The vote failed by 139 to 100, and the House dissolved into angry protests and shouting by many Republicans from New England, as well as the Ohio delegation.[FONT=&quot][4][/FONT]

Once the ritual of counting the votes was finished, it was officially announced that no candidate had a majority of the electoral votes; the count was Lincoln 145, Breckinridge 75, Douglas 44, and Bell 39. Therefore, the House would have to vote to select the President themselves from among Breckinridge, Douglas, and Lincoln.

The early voting went surprisingly smoothly; the first ballot yielded 14 states for Lincoln, 11 for Breckinridge, 5 for Douglas, with 3 split.[FONT=&quot][5][/FONT] The results continued, with only a handful of votes shifting in close states to try and work towards a compromise; through the twentieth ballot, the voting was completely inconclusive. Before the twenty-first ballot could be called, however, the House was forced to adjourn, ostensibly due to a fight between a member from South Carolina and one from Massachusetts.[FONT=&quot][6][/FONT]

Voting resumed with the twenty-first ballot when Congress came back from its recess. Though the twenty-first ballot was virtually identical to the twentieth, the twenty second ballot saw Rhode Island, Georgia, Louisiana, Kentucky, and North Carolina all go for Douglas; although three of these states had been evenly divided, and though one was Douglas’s Vice President’s home state, the stampede of closely-split states caught the House off guard.

The twenty-third ballot was, in many ways, decisive. Although only Florida and Arkansas changed allegiances (Florida from Breckinridge to Douglas, and Arkansas from Breckinridge to “Split”), the momentum stayed with Douglas and vigorous negotiations began. Also important was the defection of several Democrats in the Virginia delegation. Though not enough to change the delegation’s vote, it showed increasing weakness on Breckinridge’s part outside the Deep South. Republican discipline in Pennsylvania and several other states, in spite of the hot tempers earlier in the session, began to break down, and Douglas had more raw votes on this ballot than either Lincoln or Breckinridge.

On the twenty-fourth ballot, Oregon fell into line with the building Douglas push; Arkansas came in line as well, as did Connecticut amid extreme pressure on the Congressmen in those delegations. Texas flipped to split on the twenty-fifth ballot, and Virginia shifted to Douglas on the same; the twenty-sixth ballot finally yielded a victory for Stephen Douglas as Texas’s delegation was dragged, almost literally kicking and screaming, along with the Douglas steamroller amid rumors of a backroom deal.

The Senate’s job proved much easier. By a vote of 35 to 29, Joseph Lane of Oregon was elected Vice President of the United States over Hannibal Hamlin.[FONT=&quot][7][/FONT] The vote split was perfectly partisan; the only quirk was the absence of the two South Carolina Senators. Where much of the South Carolina House delegation had declined to absent themselves, the Senators had followed the directives of the State Convention and remained in South Carolina.

[FONT=&quot][1][/FONT] Historically, Lincoln managed to win all of these states save New Jersey; in the case of New Jersey, he lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. The POD here is that Breckinridge, Bell, and Douglas united their tickets in parts of the Midwest as they did in New York and several other states, and that Breckinridge followed this up with stuffed ballot boxes in the states north of Kentucky.

[FONT=&quot][2][/FONT] This vote historically failed by a vote of 31 to 121

[FONT=&quot][3][/FONT] And this vote historically passed nearly unanimously. More delegates than this are inclined to hold off, but few are willing to stand up and vote against it. Most of the 31 are in fact abstentions.

[FONT=&quot][4][/FONT] Most of the Dems are pressured into supporting SC’s position; ten, mainly in New York , Pennsylvania, and Connecticut break, as do the three Unionist/Constitutional Unionist Congressmen from New England. Twenty Republicans, almost all in New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey break the other way in favor of keeping SC’s votes in. Also, most of these votes are theatrical, as extremists on both sides are making theatre for the press.

[FONT=&quot][5][/FONT] Lincoln carries all of New England except for Connecticut, which splits evenly; he carries all of the remaining Free states except NJ (Douglas), IL (Douglas), and OR (Breckinridge). However, NC and LA split between Breckinridge and Douglas, while TN, MO, and MD vote for Douglas among the slave states, making Douglas the only candidate with substantial cross-sectional support; on a numerical vote, Lincoln is sitting at 108, Breckinridge at 58 (all in the South, except for 1 in OR and 1 in OH), and Douglas is at 73 (34 in the South, 39 in the North)

[FONT=&quot][6][/FONT] The “fight” was relatively minor; it consisted of a single punch being thrown at a South Carolina Congressman on the opposite side of the chamber from his delegation, and there have been rumors that the confrontation was not wholly spontaneous.

[FONT=&quot][7][/FONT] Douglas and Breckinridge cut a deal after the 22nd Ballot; when Douglas was able to pull as many votes together as he did, Breckinridge knew that Douglas was in a strong enough position and came to terms.
 

bard32

Banned
The Democrats had two conventions. The second one was in Baltimore. However, no matter who won, the Union would have still broken up because South Carolina would have sceceeded anyway.
 
The Democrats had two conventions. The second one was in Baltimore. However, no matter who won, the Union would have still broken up because South Carolina would have seceded anyway.

So far it sounds pretty plausible, I think. The break up of the country is far from uncertain, since you only have South Carolina seceding before the House meets to elect Douglas. Given the differing votes at the secession convention, I'd imagine that there's similar dissension in Mississippi and Alabama. Delay the proceedings in these three states and they don't start sending out "secession commissioners," which might blunt the transformation of the secessionist movement into the CSA. Plus, Douglas may be able to work with Buchanan to halt the secession movement by some kind of compromise.
 
As an added bonus, for discussion fodder, it is entirely possible for Bell to pick off Maryland from Breckinridge, swapping Bell into the House voting at Douglas's expense. However, both being the arguably "moderate" candidate, the result is probably similar.

Bell has an even better chance of picking off Missouri from Douglas, which guarantees he makes it into the house voting instead. To a certain extent, Bell's Constitutional Unionists were heirs to the southern branch of the Whigs, much like the Republicans were heirs to the northern branch.

If Bell doesn't make it into the House voting, I'd expect some of his support to go to the fellow southerner, Breckinridge, and some to go the Douglas as the most moderate candidate.

Which leaves Douglas as the Kingmaker - neither Lincoln or Breckinridge can win without at least some of his support. Douglas is very unlikely as a compromise between the others. He'll never get the Breckinridge supporters behind him; they fractured the Democratic Party rather than support him. That same split would leave him reluctant to support Breckenridge as well.

Douglas could swing his support behind Lincoln. Less likely, the Republicans cut a deal and support Douglas for a share of the cabinet. In both cases, I'd expect the South to be at least as disgruntled about the election as they were in OTL. There's a good chance more states would attempt to secede. Union Republicans and Democrats could be drawn closer because they had to cooperate to get a northern President elected.

Of course, if Douglas does get the Presidency, his health probably means he dies before the end of the war, leaving Lane (southern Democratic VP candidate from a western state) to become President. At which point, I'd expect Lane to end the War, shattering the Republican-northern Democratic alliance. This will likely doom his political career and perhaps the Union Democrats, though Lane would probably be welcomed into the Confederacy.

Alternatively, the House could deadlock, which is rather likely. This leaves the Senate's choice of Vice-President (probably Lane) to become President. No secession occurs, but tensions continue to rise. In 1864, you probably get a Republican (triggering secession) or a northern Democrat (still likely triggering secession.) By this point, the border South is less likely to support attempts at secession, so the Confederacy is at more of a disadvantage than in OTL.

Things play differently if the House has to decide between Bell, Breckinridge, and Lincoln. Douglas’ support will probably go partially to Lincoln as a fellow northerner and Bell as the most moderate. While the house could still deadlock between Lincoln and Breckinridge, Bell is an acceptable compromise candidate for much of the south.

And Douglas may get a chance to play Kingmaker again, swinging his support towards Bell. Bell could start the House vote with Arkansas, California, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Maryland, Missouri, Oregon, and Tennessee with New Jersey and Virginia leaning his way. With momentum he could add Delaware, Louisiana, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Texas with one more state needed for Bell to win.

If Bell does get the position, Douglas will be remembered as the man who worked himself to death to save the Union. Chances for secession would be low, though the Fire-Eaters would agitate for it if anyone but their candidate won. If they do try to break away, the Confederacy would probably be only Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina.
 
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