The Den of the Bear
St Petersburg, Russia Febuary 1859
The Tsar of all Russia stands, deep in thought, hands behind back, facing the snowstorm engulfing the city. The future of that city, and the entire nation, was as obscure as the view from his window. Russia, semi-Asiatic, rural, separated by religion and culture from the rest of Europe, had been spared the wave of revolution that swept the continent in 1848. His father, Nicholas I, had thought Russia was Immune to revolution from within. He thought that Russia, with the largest army in Europe, and endless territory, was invincible to any external enemy.
Nicholas I was dead, his heart broken by betrayal and defeat. His mighty empire was defeated, on it's own soil, by soldiers who had to be landed and supplied by sea from over a thousand miles away. The Holy alliance, guaranteeing Russia's Hegemony on the continent, was shattered, with those whom Russia had saved a decade earlier from revolution and destruction had turned against her in her hour of need (1).
Reports of Unrest from the Countryside were up. The Russian army was demoralized and STILL held up in fighting against the Circassians, though Shamil had sworn fealty to the Tsar (2), freeing up troops to finish off the Circassians (3). The nobility opposed him at every turn in making the necessary reforms. The Poles were sniffing for any sign of weakness looking for a chance to rebel and restore their independence. The Finances of the empire had largely recovered but the reforms necessary for the army, for building new railways, and above all to compensate the nobles for emancipating the serfs would demand staggering taxes- which might themselves lead to rebellion.
He was perched on the edge of a blade. Move too quickly and the nobles would rebel and replace him as tsar. Move too slowly and the serfs would rebel and plunge the country into chaos- if the other nations of Europe did not smell Russia's weakness and fall upon the Rodina like wolves. Which was certain to happen eventually if Russia failed to reform and modernize.
This was no time for foreign adventures. Especially since another failure WOULD lead to his replacement. But success… revenge upon the hated Austrians. Lower costs in the long run with the need to maintain a force in readiness against Austria gone. A near unification of Poland under his rule and with it a chance to turn a new leaf with the most troublesome of his subjects. Political capital that would enable him to push his reforms through. Financial capital from France to help pay for the reforms.
The Tsar turns. Before him are two grim faced advisers. One is a man of war who is tasked with simultaneously reducing military expenses and reforming the deficiencies the last war revealed in the Russian army (4). The other is a man who has attempted, repeatedly, to prevent the last war from occurring (5). "Well?" asks Alexander III, Tsar of all Russians.
Gorchakov speaks first. " The details are finalized. And I dickered like a Zhid to get every last Franc you demanded". "How long do we have?" asked the minister of war Sukhozanet. "May. Is the time sufficient?". "Barely. If I can draw on the necessary supplies. If we starve the Circassian front of supplies".
Alexander sighed. "We have been fighting the mountaineers for fifty years. It is over. We have won. They know they have lost, And I'm not going to spend the lives of our soldiers and the coins of our coffers just so we can depopulate their valleys and resettle Cossacks and Muzhniks in them who will take years to raise as many crops and pay as many taxes as they will if they accept our rule." (6)
Sukhozanet sighs.. "If offered your terms then most of them will submit… until they revolt again". "If I can draw on the freed up forces and supplies then I will have 250,000 troops ready for action in Poland by May". And if we begin shifting the army of the Caucaus westward and have it gather additional forces from the Ukraine on their march then we can have another 200,000 facing the Austrians by June (7).
"And to command the campaign?" Asks Alexander.
"Milyutin and Baryatinsky have performed magnificiently against the Caucasians. And it is my understanding that his majesty is considering Milyutin to replace me when the time comes. Let them therefore try their strength against the Austrian as well. Should they succeed they will have an easier time at it in undertaking those reforms I have endevoured to carry out (8). And if they fail… well, better that they fail now rather than when they hold a higher position"
Gorchakov spoke again- "Your highness- is the risk worth it? If we fail…"
Alexander Nods. He would not be the first Tsar to be replaced in a coup. But still…
"Such an opportunity is unlikely to reoccur in my reign. And my reign is unlikely to be very effective unless I can give the people a victory. A victory against a great power. Not against savages. Sign the treaty".
(1) This interpretation of the Austrian role in the Crimean war is Bollocks of course. Russia intervened in Hungary too late to make a difference and their occupation of the Danubian principalities had threated Austrian interests with no compensation offered. Austrian occupation of the Principalities probably saved Russia from a far worse defeat and their threat to enter the war actually was in Russia's best interest since it gave them a way out. Another year of Warfare and Russia would have been hurt far worse, possibly loosing the Caucaus.
(2) A butterfly. OTL Imam Shamil would surrender three months later. TTL the less turbulent situation in Prussia means Russia has more resources to spare in putting an end to the Caucasian war and is also more willing to offer better terms to a more desperate Shamil in order to free forces for the Galician campaign. Shamil basically agrees to rule the Daghestan Guberniya in the Tsar's name as civil administrator and to provide troops who will fight under their own banners and customs. He also agrees to give up a large chunk of Northern Daghestan and Chechneya (Avaristan and other tribes who fought for the Russians, All land north of Tarek river), leave the military highways under exclusive Russian administration, etc, etc, etc. It leaves him very little. But by this point OTL he was willing to surrender to keep his life and that of his family. This is a better deal and he remains titular ruler.
(3) The Caucasian war lasted for nearly 50 years and soaked up nearly a third of Russia's annual military budget. You might have thought Nicholas I would try to end this war before engaging in a major war elsewhere, right? Wrong.
(4)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolay_Sukhozanet
(5)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Mikhailovich_Gorchakov
(6)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_ethnic_cleansing It's a bit more complicated than that. By this point the Russians have been fighting the Circassians for so long and has spent so much doing so and have had so many truces blow up that ending the problem once and for all through ethnic cleansing seems to make sense on the long run. What tilts Alexander away from this is the need to free up troops for the West (his father did the same during the Crimean war). On the short-medium run leaving the 1,000,000 circasians who were killed or driven off in place means less military expenditures for Russia between 1859-1864, a slightly better reputation in the west, higher tax revenues, a redirection of immigration from the south to the East, a lower Muslim population base in the Ottoman empire and especially in the Balkans and Armenia (Also probably a later but more successful rebellion against Ottoman rule- the Circassian refugees were a large part of the cause for the rebellion but also a major force in putting it down). Long-term? It means a headache. The Circassians are NOT going to convert and subjecting them to direct rule is going to be difficult. On the other hand Daghestan DID remain fairly quiet between 1859-1917 in spite of not being ethnically cleansed like the circassians. On the third hand Circassia has better communications with the Ottoman empire. And in 1877 the Abkhaz revolted and were ethnically cleansed relatively easily (railroads. Wonderful social engineering tools). The bottom line is that I think that Russia benefits by an earlier peace treaty. By the time a new generation of Circassians/Chchens is ready to rise up again Russia has railroads going to the Caucaus and the Kuban is much more densely settled. Ethnic cleansing, if it occurs is into Siberia, central Russia and Kazahkstan, not Anatolia and the Balkans. And maybe a show of mercy at this point means long(er) term peace.
(7) OTL the Russians concentrated 150,000 troops on the Galician border in return for various minor (and mostly unfulfilled) French concessions.
(8) In other words completely failed to carry out.