1859: the second Napoleonic wars

this is an AATL inspired by the feedback to my earlier experimental attempt https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=263926

The premise of the timeline is that the period between the Crimean war to the Russo-Turkish war (1853-1878) punctuated the century of relative peace Europe enjoyed between the end of the Napoleonic wars and the first World war. This period witnessed six wars involving one or more of the great powers (Crimea, German-Danish, Franco-Austrian, Austro-Prussian, Franco-Prussian, Russo-Turkish) resulted in the consolidation of both Germany and Italy into great powers and thereby fundamentally changed the balance of power achieved at the first congress of Vienna- but without overturning it completely.

Concurrently with these European wars two massive civil wars were fought in the United states and China (American civil war 1861-1864, Taiping and Nian rebellion 1850-1867) which OTL very nearly drew the Europeans in (Trent affair, French invasion of Mexico, second Opium war) but in which their involvement was ultimately marginal.

in this time line a butterfly flaps it's wings, and one small change leads the various localized conflicts to be conflated into a single global conflict. The period leading up to the outbreak of the second Napleonic wars should be critiqued by the standards of plausibility rather than probability. I don't think that the most likely outcome of the POD I am proposing would be a global war that early (though a European war in the 1870s or 1890s is highly likely) but it's sufficiently plausible and interesting that I am interested in plotting it out.

So, having said that what is the POD?
 
#1 Only a heartbeat away



August 1857- Fredrick William IV, King of Prussia by the grace of god, paused in midstep. He felt a slight heaviness in his chest and stopped, taking a series of deep breaths until the dizziness stopped. He resolved to consult with his physician in the evening. Prussia could ill afford to lose his critical leadership at a time when the specter of revolution still threatened.


And… this is the POD. OTL Fredrick was incapacitated by a heart attack, de-facto rule of Prussia devolved to his brother a year later and he soon (November 1858) appointed a new cabinet which was less committed to suppressing German nationalism and more committed to riding it. TTL Fredrick WIlliam is going to hang on until July 1859.
 
#2 Vive la petite difference

French Italian border July 21, 1858

Cavour and Louis Napoleon were finalizing negotiations, Napoleon energetically gesticulating at the map. "It is absolutely critical", stressed Napoleon, "That your troops not cross the border into Lombardy before The Austrians invade Piedmont". "Furthermore, you must fall back as far as possible, while maintaining the morale of the troops, before the Austrians. The further they advance the farther they will be from their supply lines and the less my own troops will have to march when they cross the Alps".

Cavour nodded soberly. "We risk much to liberate the Patria. Should the Austrians concentrate all their forces against us we shall be hard pressed to hold them before your own armies arrive to aid us (1)".

Napoleon grinned. "As to that, I think I can say with some confidence that the Austrians will be unable to concentrate all of their forces against either you or us. Italy will be free- from the Alps to the Adriatic (2)!". Cavour's lip slightly twitched. "From the Alps", indeed- but not beyond them. The price for France's aid in adding Lombardy and Venetia to Piedmont were the small provinces of Savoy and Nice. To a pragmatic politician like him that was a small price to pay for the large and rich lands of Lombardia and Venetia but there would be hell to pay from firebrands like Garibaldi. Cavour consoled himself with the thought that war was a risky business and revolutionary war even more so. Perhaps fate would be kind enough to grant Gribaldi the glorious death he dreamed of.

Cavour tore himself from that not unpleasant possibility and back to the present. "Unable to concentrate their forces? Do you mean that…"

Napoleon nodded happily. His brilliant plan was, after all, coming together. "The Russians have indicated their acceptance with my…I mean our proposals (3)"

1- This is OTL. The franco-Piedmont plans hinged upon Piedmont baiting Austira into declaring war and invading by sending Gribaldi to raise hell in Lombardia. This was done not for the sake of military advantage but so Napoleon would have a diplomatic excuse to intervene. In many ways Napoleon III is the mirror image of Bismark. Machievalian plots, reliance on public opinion and grand schemes. The difference is that Napoleon actually believes that Public opinion matters as an end in and of itself rather than as a means to an end. He also believes in honor, national self determination, the sancity of international treaties and quite possibly santa claus. Which is one reason why OTL his schemes repeatedly flopped.
2- Napoleon is fixated with restoring France's "Natural" fronties on the Rhine and the Alps. And is willing to aid German and Itallian national unification in order to gain those rather trivial border territories. Never mind that from a point of view of sheer national interest having a border on the Alps with a unified Italy which is your colonial rival (AND lusting after the territories you took) and a border on the Rhine with a unified Germany (ALSO lusting after any territory you may have gained) seems like a very bad trade in comparision with the current situation.
3- OTL the Russians were concerned with upheavals in the Prussian court. They were'nt willing to commit to war. TTL, Alexander II is less concerned with going-on's in Germany and see a chance for, in no particular order:
a. revenge on Austria whose betrayal "lost" Russia the Crimean war
b. Showing the people that his reforms are made as an act of strength rather than weakness
c. Breaking up the Anglo-French alliance.
d. Reversing Russia's losses and limitations in the Crimean war (North Bank of Danube and naval limitations in black sea).
e. Gaining some strategic territory (Galicia. Poland is much easier to defend from the Carpathians. Especially if you have an independent Hungary on the other side rather than imperial Austria linked to the whole bloody German confederation).
f. Conciliating the Poles by uniting Congress Poland with Galicia.
g. Restroing the prestige of the regime and staving off revolution.
h. Eliminating Habsburg interference to Russian ambitions in the Balkans.
 
The Den of the Bear


St Petersburg, Russia Febuary 1859

The Tsar of all Russia stands, deep in thought, hands behind back, facing the snowstorm engulfing the city. The future of that city, and the entire nation, was as obscure as the view from his window. Russia, semi-Asiatic, rural, separated by religion and culture from the rest of Europe, had been spared the wave of revolution that swept the continent in 1848. His father, Nicholas I, had thought Russia was Immune to revolution from within. He thought that Russia, with the largest army in Europe, and endless territory, was invincible to any external enemy.

Nicholas I was dead, his heart broken by betrayal and defeat. His mighty empire was defeated, on it's own soil, by soldiers who had to be landed and supplied by sea from over a thousand miles away. The Holy alliance, guaranteeing Russia's Hegemony on the continent, was shattered, with those whom Russia had saved a decade earlier from revolution and destruction had turned against her in her hour of need (1).

Reports of Unrest from the Countryside were up. The Russian army was demoralized and STILL held up in fighting against the Circassians, though Shamil had sworn fealty to the Tsar (2), freeing up troops to finish off the Circassians (3). The nobility opposed him at every turn in making the necessary reforms. The Poles were sniffing for any sign of weakness looking for a chance to rebel and restore their independence. The Finances of the empire had largely recovered but the reforms necessary for the army, for building new railways, and above all to compensate the nobles for emancipating the serfs would demand staggering taxes- which might themselves lead to rebellion.

He was perched on the edge of a blade. Move too quickly and the nobles would rebel and replace him as tsar. Move too slowly and the serfs would rebel and plunge the country into chaos- if the other nations of Europe did not smell Russia's weakness and fall upon the Rodina like wolves. Which was certain to happen eventually if Russia failed to reform and modernize.

This was no time for foreign adventures. Especially since another failure WOULD lead to his replacement. But success… revenge upon the hated Austrians. Lower costs in the long run with the need to maintain a force in readiness against Austria gone. A near unification of Poland under his rule and with it a chance to turn a new leaf with the most troublesome of his subjects. Political capital that would enable him to push his reforms through. Financial capital from France to help pay for the reforms.

The Tsar turns. Before him are two grim faced advisers. One is a man of war who is tasked with simultaneously reducing military expenses and reforming the deficiencies the last war revealed in the Russian army (4). The other is a man who has attempted, repeatedly, to prevent the last war from occurring (5). "Well?" asks Alexander III, Tsar of all Russians.

Gorchakov speaks first. " The details are finalized. And I dickered like a Zhid to get every last Franc you demanded". "How long do we have?" asked the minister of war Sukhozanet. "May. Is the time sufficient?". "Barely. If I can draw on the necessary supplies. If we starve the Circassian front of supplies".

Alexander sighed. "We have been fighting the mountaineers for fifty years. It is over. We have won. They know they have lost, And I'm not going to spend the lives of our soldiers and the coins of our coffers just so we can depopulate their valleys and resettle Cossacks and Muzhniks in them who will take years to raise as many crops and pay as many taxes as they will if they accept our rule." (6)

Sukhozanet sighs.. "If offered your terms then most of them will submit… until they revolt again". "If I can draw on the freed up forces and supplies then I will have 250,000 troops ready for action in Poland by May". And if we begin shifting the army of the Caucaus westward and have it gather additional forces from the Ukraine on their march then we can have another 200,000 facing the Austrians by June (7).

"And to command the campaign?" Asks Alexander.

"Milyutin and Baryatinsky have performed magnificiently against the Caucasians. And it is my understanding that his majesty is considering Milyutin to replace me when the time comes. Let them therefore try their strength against the Austrian as well. Should they succeed they will have an easier time at it in undertaking those reforms I have endevoured to carry out (8). And if they fail… well, better that they fail now rather than when they hold a higher position"

Gorchakov spoke again- "Your highness- is the risk worth it? If we fail…"

Alexander Nods. He would not be the first Tsar to be replaced in a coup. But still…

"Such an opportunity is unlikely to reoccur in my reign. And my reign is unlikely to be very effective unless I can give the people a victory. A victory against a great power. Not against savages. Sign the treaty".

(1) This interpretation of the Austrian role in the Crimean war is Bollocks of course. Russia intervened in Hungary too late to make a difference and their occupation of the Danubian principalities had threated Austrian interests with no compensation offered. Austrian occupation of the Principalities probably saved Russia from a far worse defeat and their threat to enter the war actually was in Russia's best interest since it gave them a way out. Another year of Warfare and Russia would have been hurt far worse, possibly loosing the Caucaus.
(2) A butterfly. OTL Imam Shamil would surrender three months later. TTL the less turbulent situation in Prussia means Russia has more resources to spare in putting an end to the Caucasian war and is also more willing to offer better terms to a more desperate Shamil in order to free forces for the Galician campaign. Shamil basically agrees to rule the Daghestan Guberniya in the Tsar's name as civil administrator and to provide troops who will fight under their own banners and customs. He also agrees to give up a large chunk of Northern Daghestan and Chechneya (Avaristan and other tribes who fought for the Russians, All land north of Tarek river), leave the military highways under exclusive Russian administration, etc, etc, etc. It leaves him very little. But by this point OTL he was willing to surrender to keep his life and that of his family. This is a better deal and he remains titular ruler.
(3) The Caucasian war lasted for nearly 50 years and soaked up nearly a third of Russia's annual military budget. You might have thought Nicholas I would try to end this war before engaging in a major war elsewhere, right? Wrong.
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolay_Sukhozanet
(5) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Mikhailovich_Gorchakov
(6) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_ethnic_cleansing It's a bit more complicated than that. By this point the Russians have been fighting the Circassians for so long and has spent so much doing so and have had so many truces blow up that ending the problem once and for all through ethnic cleansing seems to make sense on the long run. What tilts Alexander away from this is the need to free up troops for the West (his father did the same during the Crimean war). On the short-medium run leaving the 1,000,000 circasians who were killed or driven off in place means less military expenditures for Russia between 1859-1864, a slightly better reputation in the west, higher tax revenues, a redirection of immigration from the south to the East, a lower Muslim population base in the Ottoman empire and especially in the Balkans and Armenia (Also probably a later but more successful rebellion against Ottoman rule- the Circassian refugees were a large part of the cause for the rebellion but also a major force in putting it down). Long-term? It means a headache. The Circassians are NOT going to convert and subjecting them to direct rule is going to be difficult. On the other hand Daghestan DID remain fairly quiet between 1859-1917 in spite of not being ethnically cleansed like the circassians. On the third hand Circassia has better communications with the Ottoman empire. And in 1877 the Abkhaz revolted and were ethnically cleansed relatively easily (railroads. Wonderful social engineering tools). The bottom line is that I think that Russia benefits by an earlier peace treaty. By the time a new generation of Circassians/Chchens is ready to rise up again Russia has railroads going to the Caucaus and the Kuban is much more densely settled. Ethnic cleansing, if it occurs is into Siberia, central Russia and Kazahkstan, not Anatolia and the Balkans. And maybe a show of mercy at this point means long(er) term peace.
(7) OTL the Russians concentrated 150,000 troops on the Galician border in return for various minor (and mostly unfulfilled) French concessions.
(8) In other words completely failed to carry out.
 
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