1855, The Tokugawa Triumph

NapoleonXIV

Banned
WI the Japanese decide to resist Perry to the full degree and win? The US was, ironically, one of the few nations in the world the Japanese might still have fought off enough that the US would judge it not worth their while to continue, but then what would happen? Would the other Western powers step in? Would the Tokugawa modernise anyway? or would they try to keep the isolation going into the 20thc?
 

Sargon

Donor
Monthly Donor
It's pretty likely it will just be a matter of time before someone forces Japan open. Don't forget that the British and Russians are already knocking on the door. The Russian expeditions in particular have already had an effect. There was growing pressure for change within Japan even before Perry turned up due to that and other reasons. The Japanese were well aware of what was going on in China, and elements within the country knew that if they didn't do something, they'd be next on the plate. Change would probably follow roughly the same path as OTL, but may be delayed by a few years.

As for the point of beating off the US, well, it's true the US would have trouble at this time implementing and sustaining power projection so far away sufficient to beat Japan. Still, Americans are a tenacious lot, so I don't expect them to let it rest easily, and I'd expect another bunch of ships sent to mount some retaliation raids if nothing else. If all else fails they could make alliances with European powers if they really wished to give Japan a bloody nose, but as you say, would it be worth it? Probably not at that time. However, expect them to be back later before the Europeans eat too much of the pie.


Sargon
 
The only wasy the Japanese can win is thru treachury, They don't have any cannons capable of hurting the US ships.

So while Admiral Perry and his Captians are ashore attending a evening festive.
Dozens of small boats carrying hundreds of Samuri swarm the ships.

Two years later 2 dozen US warships enter Toyko bay and open fire.
 
The only wasy the Japanese can win is thru treachury, They don't have any cannons capable of hurting the US ships.

So while Admiral Perry and his Captians are ashore attending a evening festive.
Dozens of small boats carrying hundreds of Samuri swarm the ships.

That's not treachery, that's called a 'cutting-out action'.

Also, I'm pretty sure Japanese cannon were capable of hurting the 'black ships' if massed enough. The advantage of land-based batteries still cancels out the technological edge enjoyed by the US Navy at the time. None of the vessels were armoured or equipped for serious bombardment.

Two years later 2 dozen US warships enter Toyko bay and open fire.

Which two dozen warships would that be? The US Navy isn't all that large, and I very much doubt congress will allow most of its forces be sent across the Pacific to salve wounded pride.
 
The only wasy the Japanese can win is thru treachury, They don't have any cannons capable of hurting the US ships.

So while Admiral Perry and his Captians are ashore attending a evening festive.
Dozens of small boats carrying hundreds of Samuri swarm the ships.

Two years later 2 dozen US warships enter Toyko bay and open fire.

what would capturing the ships accomplish, in the eyes of the Tokugawa ?
 
The only wasy the Japanese can win is thru treachury, They don't have any cannons capable of hurting the US ships..

Do what?

The Japanese had plenty of cannon. They weren't very good cannon, but they had them.

Basically the Tokugawa Shogunate still had everything Ieyasu had the morning after Sekigahara. Including hundreds of cast-iron muzzle-loading round shot cannon. State of the art for the early 1600s.

Totally obsolete by the 1800s, and of course most of them were scattered all over Japan... but they still worked, and enough of them could have sunk the Black Ships with no trouble at all.

Note that just a few years later, in the Satsuma War, the Royal Navy would engage in a gun duel with the Japanese on shore at Kagoshima. The Japanese still had those same crude cannon... but they had assembled a lot of them, including some very large guns, in batteries all aroud the harbor.

The range of the Japanese guns was very short, so if the Brits had been patient they could methodically have silenced them from a distance. But the Royal Navy wasn't there for a long-drawn-out gun duel; they were on a punitive expedition. Their goal was to trash the town and, if possible, land Marines and show the flag.

Result: the fight was a draw. The Brits wreaked havoc on the town and the ships in the harbor, but they couldn't silence the enemy batteries. Because they got in close, they took some casualties, including the captain of one British ship. The Japanese actually claimed the action as a victory; despite the massive property damage, the Brits were unable to land their Marines and take the town, and eventually sailed away with the Japanese still firing after them.

Anyway, point being: they had cannon.

(Could the Japane have sunk the American ships? Probably. But they were bright enough to see that this would be difficult, and would lead to immense further complications. And, as noted, they were seriously considering opening up already.)


Doug M.
 
That's not treachery, that's called a 'cutting-out action'..
Maybe to the Japanese, but treachery is what the Americans would call it back Home.
Which two dozen warships would that be?
The US Navy isn't all that large, and I very much doubt congress will allow most of its forces be sent across the Pacific to salve wounded pride.
The two dozen Warships built to avenge the Japanese treachery.
what would capturing the ships accomplish, in the eyes of the Tokugawa ?
No Idea, but it sloves the problem of The Tokugawa being Triumphant at something.
 
Ok, so lets say that (amazingly) the Japanese take control of the ships and force the Americans to surrender, or something. The Americans are sent home on whatever ships they are allowed to keep and returned home embarrassed but alive. Would that be enough to escape retaliation? Its possible I suppose.
 
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