1850s Franco-American War over Hawaii

After France started interfering in Hawaii's politics with hopes of eventual annexation, Millard Fillmore sent a letter to the France saying the United States would not permit a foreign power owning the islands.

What if Napoleon III called the bluff? Who would have won at that time?
 
After France started interfering in Hawaii's politics with hopes of eventual annexation, Millard Fillmore sent a letter to the France saying the United States would not permit a foreign power owning the islands.

What if Napoleon III called the bluff? Who would have won at that time?
Would America go to war with France over Hawaii?
 
Maybe not a war, but it's quite possible for the Hawaiians to seize this opportunity to play the two off each other, maintain their independence.
 
Maybe not a war, but it's quite possible for the Hawaiians to seize this opportunity to play the two off each other, maintain their independence.

It'd be quite funny in an ironic sort of way if this diplomatic issue became a scramble for Hawaii of sorts, where France invaded from the west, and the US from the east, and Hawaii ended up even less sovereign than if one power annexed it.
 
It'd be quite funny in an ironic sort of way if this diplomatic issue became a scramble for Hawaii of sorts, where France invaded from the west, and the US from the east, and Hawaii ended up even less sovereign than if one power annexed it.

Exactly how much more sovereignty does Hawaii have now that it has been annexed by one power.

A division of the Hawaiian islands by France and the US would end still with an American economic domination of the whole chain. The proximity to the US guarantees that it will be in the American sphere of influence.
 

MrP

Banned
Without bothering to check the numbers for the decade preceding the ACW, I think the French probably have a vastly superior fleet. That's probably a bit handy when considering an island. However, Hawaii is ridiculously far from anywhere, so logistics would be a problem. Where is the closest French possession - Vietnam or something? :confused:
 
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