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OTL, President John Tyler formed a third party, the Democratic-Republican Party, to run for re-election in his own right in 1844 - mostly on the assumption that there wouldn't be a prominent pro-Texas annexation candidate in the race (Van Buren and Clay, the frontrunners, both opposed it). When the Democrats nominated Polk - a pro-annexation candidate, Tyler effectively withdrew his candidacy, because realistically he would only divide the pro-annexation vote.

But let's say he didn't withdraw. How would an active third-party candidacy of an incumbent President affect the outcome of the race?

There are a couple of questions that have to be asked before that one though -

1. Who is the Democratic nominee? Van Buren? Polk? Someone else entirely?
2. If the nominee is still Polk, could Tyler even be convinced to stay in?

We're going to assume that the answer to the latter question is no. Tyler primarily ran because he wanted Texas to be annexed, if there's a candidate that supports it and has a better shot - Tyler is going to back out - as he did OTL.

So for the first question, it is probably Van Buren. If there's another candidate that might convince Tyler to stay in - feel free to put it out there.

On to the next issue - Tyler was famously unpopular and ineffective - BUT - there was a fairly significant movement for him to run in 44 anyways, certainly nowhere near as strong as the Democrats or Whigs, but his Democratic-Republican Party had potential to grow stronger, at least for a little while.

So, just how well could Tyler do?

Keep in mind I am not an expert on this era - that's why I'm asking you lovely people. How much traction do you think his party could gain? I doubt it would be enough to straight up win the election, given his reputation, but against Clay and Van Buren, he'd likely perform quite well in the South - but how well? If he wins a state or two, or in a best-case scenario pulls out his home state of Virginia, he could possibly be kingmaker at the end.
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