1831: Poland wins!

Actually, Kingdom of Poland was only a part of Polish areas. Southern part of Little Poland (Małopolska) belonged to Austria, Cracow was formally a free city and Greater Poland (Wielkopolska), Kuyavia and Pomerelia were occuped by Prussia. And that is the problem. A fully independent Kingdom of Poland would be considered a threat by Prussia and Austria, worried about their Poles trying to join their countrymen - after all, if Poles had succeeded against Russia, then perhaps it would work against other oppressors.
Which is why any help for Poland from Prussia and/or Austria is completely impossible. While Holly Alliance was crumbling, in Poland's case interests of Russian tsar, Austrian emperor and Prussian king were identical - keep them under yoke. IIRC, Poles mostly hoped for French help (after the July Revolution).
Not to mention it would be pretty much ASB for tiny Kingdom of Poland to defeat enormious Russian Empire. While Polish Army was surprisingly good, it was very small and hastily formed new units were usually much worse than regular troops, not to mention KoP had really small arms industry. Even with better and more determined leaders Poles eventually had to loose. To put it simply, masses of Russian soldiers would have eventually trampled Polish troops.
 
What POD could give Poland (I believe it was just a Polish area at the time) victory over Russia? ASBs don't need to apply.

It was still a separate kingdom at the time, with its own army (whichwas the reason any hope existed in the first place) and laws (although the Russians respected these less and less). It fought surprisingly well at first, so if Russia starts having some sort of serious internal problems which weaken its ability to fight, and the Poles themselves do somewhat better, the uprising just might succeed. Austria and Prussia would not have wanted to help the Polish genie escape its jar by opposing Russia.
 
The Austrians have to support them. Or the Prussians. Or any other European power (except France).

The king of Prussia and the Czar of Russia couldn't even support their relative, the king of the Netherlands during the Belgian Revolt. I doubt they will support as seraphim74 a potential future threat as an independent Poland might be.
 
Look up 1922 war between Poland and USSR and think again...

...That is really why Germany had to batter the Poles before Stalin stabbed them in the back in the Second World War. And Germany had a hellish time with the Poles - the biggest resistance movement in Europe.
 
...That is really why Germany had to batter the Poles before Stalin stabbed them in the back in the Second World War. And Germany had a hellish time with the Poles - the biggest resistance movement in Europe.

The fighting between Poland and the Soviets in 1919-1920 happened under specific circumstances due to the prior collapse of the Russian Empire. In 1939 the Red Army would have needed many months and huge casualties to defeat Poland, but it was exceptionally weak at the time due to the purges*. (Besides, Stalin knew Germany wanted immediate war more than he did and could be expected to do his work for him).

*Hmm. Could something make the Tsar to conduct a series of massive purges in the Russian Army before 1830, while simultaneously not subjecting the Polish army to the same treatment ("it's too small to be a threat anyway","I must concentrate on deling with the Russian Army first", etc)?
 
Given the technical complexity of the armies of that era it probably wouldnt mean much,the red armies tactics between 1939-1940 would fit in perfectly with that era actually.

Besides the tsar was already approved by god so i dont see why he would see any general as a threat to his position,especially since no general could hope to replace him.
 

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
The king of Prussia and the Czar of Russia couldn't even support their relative, the king of the Netherlands during the Belgian Revolt. I doubt they will support as seraphim74 a potential future threat as an independent Poland might be.

They couldn't help him because of the threat of a British intervention and French help for Belgium.

Poland in 1831 is another case. There is no danger of a war with the British Empire, but I doubt that Prussia or Austria, the two possessing lare chunks of what is Poland today wanted to risk a revolt in their own empires by helping the Polish.

Like if you help the fried of your biggest enemy. So better stay calm and watch how the Russian kills your enemy's best friend.

(This is the whole problem: with their own large minorities, Austria and Prussia would be silly if they tried to liberate an oppressed minority in anouther country).
 
You would need a PoD to convince both Prussia And Austria that Russia was a bigger threat to them than an Independent Poland And potential internal nationalism would be. This would be difficult but probably could be done.

Prussia is probably easiest. Just have Russo-Prussian relations worsen and have Russia start talking about wanting Danzig and there you go. Prussia doesn't really need to worry about Polish Minorities, they are still a very German State.

Austria is harder because they actually need to worry about Minorities and in particular a large Polish Minority. However it could be done. If Russia really started going hard for Balkan Influence, then Austria could be brought in against them and may be willing to support a Polish State. If Austria can be suitable compensated in the final Dust-Up they may be willing to cede Galicia-Lodomeria, especially if they wind up with a Habsburg on the Polish Throne.

But in 1831 this would be difficult to achieve.
 
They couldn't help him because of the threat of a British intervention and French help for Belgium.

Poland in 1831 is another case. There is no danger of a war with the British Empire, but I doubt that Prussia or Austria, the two possessing lare chunks of what is Poland today wanted to risk a revolt in their own empires by helping the Polish.

Like if you help the fried of your biggest enemy. So better stay calm and watch how the Russian kills your enemy's best friend.

(This is the whole problem: with their own large minorities, Austria and Prussia would be silly if they tried to liberate an oppressed minority in anouther country).

I don't think that's entirely true. If Prussia and/or Russia would have sided with William I, then the whole Belgian Revolt might be treated as an internal matter.
France might have been actively helping the Belgian rebels, however Britain only guaranteed Belgium after the conflict was finally settled in 1839 (the Netherlands is forced to recognize Belgium (1830)). They probably didn't care whether there was a Belgium or a United Netherlands, as long as the Southern Netherlands did not become French.

Prussia and Russia with good ties to the Royal House of the Netherlands (Orange-Nassau) formally denied to help, due to the Polish Revolt.
 
Originally posted by JCVocke
Prussia is probably easiest. Just have Russo-Prussian relations worsen and have Russia start talking about wanting Danzig and there you go. Prussia doesn't really need to worry about Polish Minorities, they are still a very German State.

I'm not so sure about Polish minorites not being a problem for Prussia. Poles were quite troublesome later even for united Germany. Prussia alone was much smaller than whole Germany and all Polish regions under German occupation belonged to Prussia, therefore percentage of Poles in Prussian population was much higher than in whole Germany.

Austria is harder because they actually need to worry about Minorities and in particular a large Polish Minority. However it could be done. If Russia really started going hard for Balkan Influence, then Austria could be brought in against them and may be willing to support a Polish State. If Austria can be suitable compensated in the final Dust-Up they may be willing to cede Galicia-Lodomeria, especially if they wind up with a Habsburg on the Polish Throne.

I have my doubts about it too. I never heard about a ruler willing to give up his territories unless he is forced to do it.

But in 1831 this would be difficult to achieve.
Absolutely
 
A stronger Decembrist revolt maybe? One that is powerfull enough to not be crushed quickly, but still too weak to enforce it's demands on the Czar causing a Civil War/ Instability?

KoP could then attempt to opportunistically secede under the guise of keeping that region stable.
 
Prussia is probably easiest. Just have Russo-Prussian relations worsen and have Russia start talking about wanting Danzig and there you go. Prussia doesn't really need to worry about Polish Minorities, they are still a very German State.
If Russia plans a war with Prussia, instead of pacyfying the Belgians, the whole uprising may be buterflied away. I dont think that Poles would have any problems with participating in invasion of Prussia as long as they are promised Poznań and Pomeriania.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Having the Czar not be the ultra conservative that he was might help. He was an upholder of the Metternich order, and having a reformer would threaten that. For one thing, it might make whoever turns out to be Czar, likely Constantine, more willing to give the Poles what they want, but it would also mean that Prussia and Austria are less cozy with the Russians, and therefore willing to strike back at them, especially if the Polish leadership can be suborned away from liberalism.
 
Poland winning on its own merits is not going to happen, Poland winning because of instability in russia thats doable. Simply put have russia go through a few bad harvests. Have the nobility act worse and then have a peaceful demonstration for food be slaughtered. Now have the peasants snap.

The russians now must put down an enraged peasant uprising and the poles, if the chaos is bad enough the russians will decide to cut their losses and deal with their internal problems first. Leaving Poland the victor by default.
 
Poland winning on its own merits is not going to happen, Poland winning because of instability in russia thats doable. Simply put have russia go through a few bad harvests. Have the nobility act worse and then have a peaceful demonstration for food be slaughtered. Now have the peasants snap.

The russians now must put down an enraged peasant uprising and the poles, if the chaos is bad enough the russians will decide to cut their losses and deal with their internal problems first. Leaving Poland the victor by default.

Possible.

One distraction one could use is the Russo-Ottoman war lasting longer. OTL, it ended 1828, iirc, and that let the Russians concentrate all their efforts on Poland.

The other thing is that, to realistically have a chance of winning, the Poles probably need the (at least tacit) support of one of their major European neighbors. Which means Prussia or Austria. Since neither Prussia nor Austria was interested in letting uppity peasants revolt, nor were they interested in encouraging their OWN POLISH minorities, this is very hard.

If you have an earlier PoD, like Russia getting all of Polish lands, in exchange for Prussia getting Saxony and Austria getting ???, probably at the Council of Vienna, AND if there were significant political divisions between Prussia and Austria, then MAYBE you could get one of them to ally with Russia - and the other to allow their territory as a conduit for arms to spite the other.
 
Who would be interested in helping the poles? Austria and Prussia both have polish territories and minorities that would be troublesome if a polish states emerge.
 
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