1823 Independent Philippines Butterfly Effect

So I was thinking about a WI if Andres Novales succeeded in his revolt. This is all coming from the my head right now and thinking about it have severe butterfly effects in East Asia and maybe other parts of the world.

With an independent Philippines, the country would slowly grow and have its own Industrial Revolution in the late 1840s. By then the country would have a decently sized military to protect itself. The Philippines the only Western civilized nation in East Asia maintains good relations with the European and American powers as they trade. Having contacts with Europe and America allows the Philippines to continually bring in Western ideas into the country serving as the hub of all Western civilization in East Asia.

This affects East Asia in a different way. Pre colonial Asian societies curious of a successful nation in Asia utilizing Western governance, economics send students to study in Philippine universities. This in turn would lead to these students returning to their countries and bringing in Western ideas into the country.

By 1860 many of Asia pre colonial nations are on a path of industrialization or are already industrialized like maybe Thailand and Vietnam being industrialized or being in the process. China could have a form of limited democracy while it maintains a Western style military. Japan may follow OTL or may industrialize quicker and earlier. The Philippines being in the game since 1823 has expanded to North Borneo and Taiwan and also holding islands in the Pacific and is a regional power.

By the 1880s all of Asia civilized and with that the transmit of Eastern culture and ideas enter into Europe and America such as Buddhism and Confucianism. The Philippines will be a strong economic power with a large merchant fleet and Navy while China a large Partially Westernized country with massive resources for trade and a large military.

Other:

- Early Dutch East Indies revolt results it dividing into several different countries?

- Early revolt of India?

- The Ottoman Empire seeing the success of the East Asian nations successfully reforms under Tanzimat?

- Asian nations involved in scramble for Africa? (China, Japan?)

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So what do you guys think about all of this? Any thoughts on how this might affect the World? I plan to write this on the ALTHIST wiki and need your opinions and support?
 
I don't think philippines will have that effect on east Asia until Japan starts expanding southward and threatens Marianas and batanes.

It will have direct effect on south east Asia immediately.

The issue with philippines is stability after independence. Although it is smaller land area than Mexico during mexicos independence, it is still a Hispanic nation prone to civil war.

Industrialization is a high possibility even earlier than japan. The shipyards left by Spain is a plus until iron and steel navies are a norm.

Philippines only lacks oil as a natural resource. So getting north Borneo would not be a priority until oil is discovered in Borneo. There is no reason for philippines to expand and conquer when you got everything at home unless you are conquering for strategic purposes.

Taiwan is not a good idea to conquer since philippines won't get anything from it not unlike japan who has limited natural resources.

Scarborough shoal is more likely an immediate target for Novales since it just too near Manila compared to sulu, Borneo or Taiwan with a land area enough to build a base for your navy and strike Manila. Without a great power like otl Spain or otl USA patrolling those waters, it is something one nation secures from foreign encroachment.
 
I really like the idea of the Asian countries scrambling with the European countries for colonies, and maybe in India, too. Afterall, Goa was a Portugese colony and the rest of India British.

Maybe in the Phillipines the ethic develops that it is not fully honorable to pay your devoted workers a poverty wage while you live in splendor. Now, the capitalism in Europe has some advantages, too. Each side can have areas they're proud of, as well as partial moral blindspots.

And maybe it could kind of be like the competition between the U.S. and the Soviets, say, from the 1950s to the 80s, where each is competing with the other for the allegiance of people in the Third World. But not an exact template. There are some differences, and that's what makes it so interesting.

A Lot of Potential! :>)
 
Well, if Novales revolt succeeded and became the "emperor" (or monarch) of the Philippines, he and his new government (presumably his comrades in the military) should solve the common problems of an early 19th century Filipino, like polo y servicio, abusive friars, etc. If you counted intercommunication between ethnic groups in the archipelago, that's more or less of a problem.

Now, if this Imperio de las Islas Filipinas wanted to expand, Novales should convince both Moro sultans and indigenous chiefs in Mindanao (or even northern Borneo) to be his suzerains (by the way, I mean the second definition of the word "suzerainty" in the Merriam-Webster online dictionary).
 
Well, if Novales revolt succeeded and became the "emperor" (or monarch) of the Philippines, he and his new government (presumably his comrades in the military) should solve the common problems of an early 19th century Filipino, like polo y servicio, abusive friars, etc. If you counted intercommunication between ethnic groups in the archipelago, that's more or less of a problem.

Now, if this Imperio de las Islas Filipinas wanted to expand, Novales should convince both Moro sultans and indigenous chiefs in Mindanao (or even northern Borneo) to be his suzerains (by the way, I mean the second definition of the word "suzerainty" in the Merriam-Webster online dictionary).

I dont think Philippines would need Sulu and the remaining Mindanao still under the Islamic Sultanates. All the resources you need are abundant in the Philppines OTL 1820s minus Muslim Mindanao. The only time you would need to expand is by the time oil becomes necessary for the industry and military which is around 60-70 years from PoD.
 

Driftless

Donor
How does the multiple languages & dialects play into governance? Would you see this version of the Philippines as a single entity, or a confederation of some form?
 
This is my take had he succeeded :
1) Philippines will become an oddball Latin American country in Asia. I do think his regime will be more courting towards the Indios and their culture compared to New World Criollo states. And an independent Philippines at this time shouldn't have as much predisposition towards southern expansion as the Spanish regime would and did in OTL. Territorially at least. Sulu and Maguindanao are bound to fall into Manila's orbit and it will likely get involved in North Bornean affairs later on.
2) I think it will share similar relationships the Latin Americans had with European powers, especially Britain. I wonder if independent Philippines will benefit British power in Asia or if France will still plant their presence in Indochina regardless.
3) Related to #2, I think their economy and society will also be similar to standard Latin American countries. I don't expect anything like a Meiji out of them. In 19th century, their later possible fate can range from British protectorate to something of an Asian Brazil. On the longer term however they will likely to become much better then OTL.
4) This Philippines won't likely influence Indonesia/NEI much at least until 20th century nationalism, where she can provide potential refuge for Indonesian exiles. Don't think each other's history meant much for the other this period. Before then, I would think she and the Dutch will have similar perception in regards to the British.
5) Very likely that she will approach Japan as soon as the later shows signs of becoming a rising star in East Asia.
 
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How does the multiple languages & dialects play into governance? Would you see this version of the Philippines as a single entity, or a confederation of some form?

The only language common to them is Spanish. A new nation with multiple languages/dialects always have this issue which language to chose from. The Americans almost chose German as their official language. The Mexicans in otl 1820s had more people speaking local languages/dialect than Spanish. So if philippines go the Mexico route, philippines would be a Spanish speaking nation with almost dead or dying indigenous languages/dialects like Mexico.

With regards to government form, the pod is an empire. It will have that issue once it transforms into a republic. Being a republic as a standard government by nations won't be a norm until the British loses #1 superpower status from USA or another republican nation.

This is my take had he succeeded :

1), 2), 3) I agree to your points.
4) it would totally depend if the ATL British let philippines get northern Borneo and Brunei instead of the British in otl. Other than that, the closest nearest oil to Phil's are under the Dutch.
5) almost everyone approached japan during Meiji. The British even allied to japan in otl. No surprise here.
 
Could we have massive European immigration to the islands or would it be smaller? Maybe in the late 19th century?

Maybe Spanish is still dominant but through government encouragement of speaking the native languages so would could the Philippines be a multi-lingual country?

Also with the Philippines if they speak Spanish, could we see Filipinos in Latin America with a heavier population? With Mexico having the largest Philippine population.

How Wwll an independent Philippines affect Mexico and Latin America?
 
Could we have massive European immigration to the islands or would it be smaller? Maybe in the late 19th century?

The philippines is farther from Europe than Americas. Opportunities locally and Immigration policies would be factors. If there is ample reason to migrate, this is possible and probable.

Maybe Spanish is still dominant but through government encouragement of speaking the native languages so would could the Philippines be a multi-lingual country?

In order to have a nation to encourage multilingual language, it must have a significant population for each language. 19th century philippines meant that only Tagalog had the population to be significant. This means 19th century philippine linguistic divide should mirror otl 21st century philippines to have more languages significant. Other than that, there is no reason to encourage multiple languages in 19th century philippines. As a new nation your priority is to stabilize and unite, which multiple languages will not make a nation stable nor unite.

Also with the Philippines if they speak Spanish, could we see Filipinos in Latin America with a heavier population? With Mexico having the largest Philippine population.
It is probable and possible depending on the situation. There is no reason to leave a country unless you give them a reason.

How Wwll an independent Philippines affect Mexico and Latin America?
A continuation of the silver/galleon trade would help both economies in South America and philippines become richer than otl as trade with china would continue.

A lucrative trade like that means South America and philippines need to secure the pacific as mare nostrum and build a large navy. This will also affect how china deals with the west and the west deals with china. Will opium be forced by the British now that they can get Chinese goods in Manila? Which by this time an independent philippines and South America would under British influence or control. Does this mean Hong Kong will now be butterflied away as a British colony?

All these things are possible and probable.
 
Well I decided that I am going to start on this project but what would be a good pod for Novales to succeed?

Edit: Also I need some good links on Philippines history, in depth. Wikipedia is not that good of a source for the Philippines. :p
 
We tried to discuss this a while back.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=282463

Here's the link. Thank you guys who posted on that thread you guys are awesome.

on the side-note Novales' brother only needs to open the gate of Fort Santiago to turn the Novales revolt into a revolution. The next problem is the... spanish garrison in pampanga i think...

Grab Tarakan and North Borneo early... and we have a large coal deposit in Semirara... Iron and Tin not sure where you're going to dig them...
 
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