1823: A Question of Philippine Independence and its effect

katchen

Banned
The Sultans of Brunei and Sulu are neighbors and might move into political vacuums. Sulu especially, especially in Mindanao.
 
The Sultans of Brunei and Sulu are neighbors and might move into political vacuums. Sulu especially, especially in Mindanao.

This is highly possible. There are certain possibilities that Novales can take. Abandon Mindanao, retake later. Or if Novales develops a Navy at par with the First Chilean Navy immediately, he can repel any Sulu or Brunei invasion. He can also buy the First Rate ships from the British which the British confiscated from the Spanish during Trafalgar. Or if the author permits, the Spanish East Indies Navy rebels along Novales' side.

I see; nevertheless, even though Novales and the rebels won in TTL, they still confront the problems of the Philippines at that time.
And I see a problem; it was 1823, and most Filipinos are still consider themselves as members of their ethnolinguistic groups. Also, the surnames issue.

TTL, Yes this is an issue which Novales has to resolve. Difficult this may be, these are the same issues that Spanish America also had to resolve in OTL after independence from Spain.

Just because Luzon falls doesn't necessarily mean the other islands fall. At the very least it would take them a few years to acquire the navy necessary to take over Palawan and Mindanao. My feeling is that Spain might eventually reconquer Luzon so long as they keep hold of the Southern islands- if Spain tried that in the Americas the neighbouring revolutionary states would rally to kick them back out, but Luzon doesn't have any neighbours.

This is a possibility. Since Novales is from the Spanish Army, the Spanish East Indies Navy may also rebel.
 
1841 - Kingdom of Sarawak is established by James Brooke. At the same time formed an alliance with the Philippines. James Brooke later married a daughter of Andres Novales.
If earlier events don't butterfly-away the creation of the Brookes' Sarawak anyway -- for example, by James Brooke going to work directly for the new Philippines government in some way -- then this alliance seems unlikely to me. Even if his Sarawak wasn't at least nominally a vassal of Brunei in the early days, which I think was the case, he'd have favoured (and almost certainly have received) an alliance with Britain instead.

Since Novales is from the Spanish Army, the Spanish East Indies Navy may also rebel.
Or maybe the fact that he's from the Army makes the Navy less likely to support him? :cool:
 
If it does modernize within the time frame, it will start absorbing the moro sultanates, buy up north borneo, merge with White rajahs in sarawak and become the protector of Brunei which are still independent from Europe by this time. After that, freeing up the nations under the Dutch Colonies will probably be the top priority and absorbing what is modern day indonesia.
What if Novales decided he's contended with the northern part of Borneo (Sarawak, Sabah and even Brunei)?
 
The Philippines will definitely need to come up with ways to maintain its territories since the issue of ethnicity and language might go unresolved in this scenario.
 

katchen

Banned
The Sultan of Brunei might find Novales a more impressive White Rajah for his purposes than Brooke. Especially if Novales has a navy at his disposal. And for his part, Novales could find Brunei very useful.
 
What if Novales decided he's contended with the northern part of Borneo (Sarawak, Sabah and even Brunei)?

This is a possibility. All of the resources Philippines need until the 21st century are already within OTL Philippines, Sarawak, Sabah and Brunei. Sarawak/Sabah/Brunei for Petrol/Rubber, Philippines for the rest of the resources, Philippine trench for Deuterium.

If so, what will be his style of leadership?

From what I know, Novales was born 1800 came from a military family, enlisted as a cadet at age 9. Lieutenant at age 14. Enlisted for the Napoleonic wars. Demoted to Cadet because of race and age once in Spain. Came back to Philippines as Captain.

In my opinion, he was a very capable military man and experienced Napoleonic wars first hand. He was very passionate. He was envied by all peninsulares soldiers probably due to his success both locally and the Napoleonic wars. However, he was politically naive like how Bonifacio was in OTL. His story however is good and very dramatic way to start a POD or an alternate timeline for the Philippines.

For more info:
1) “Twenty Years in the Philippines” written by the Frenchman Paul P. de la Gironiere published in 1854 which mentioned Novales. Gironiere was a friend of Novales.
2) John Scott, John Taylor. The London Magazine, Volume 14. pp. 512–516.
 
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In my opinion, he was a very capable military man and experienced Napoleonic wars first hand. He was very passionate. He was envied by all peninsulares soldiers probably due to his success both locally and the Napoleonic wars. However, he was politically naive like how Bonifacio was in OTL. His story however is good and very dramatic way to start a POD or an alternate timeline for the Philippines.
Well, if he succeeded in liberating the Philippines, he's still caught in the conflict between liberals and conservatives (and their friar allies) in the government.
About the possibility of Brooke marrying Novales' daughter, what if this daughter is his only child?
 
An appropriate choice, given the fact that Mexico, like the Philippines, had a ton of diverse ethnic groups that speak languages like Nahuatl, Totonac, and many other Mesoamerican languages, and Spanish was like the lingua franca.
 
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