1814: Napoleon Commits Suicide

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Nekromans, Apr 18, 2008.

  1. Fearless Leader Donor

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    Hmm...

    Takes notes...

    How would the failure of the Congress of Vienna affect the South American and Mexican Wars of Independence? IIRC Spain and Austria (maybe) wanted to form some sort of "Holy League" and crush the insurrections but Britain stopped them. Would something similiar happen in TTL?
     
  2. mattep74 Well-Known Member

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    In 1974 ABBA dont win the eurovision with Waterloo
     
  3. Susano Banned

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    Maybe, but Britain can still stop them, its the primary naval power after all... as was said before, think of a "perpetual tension" scenario, so its even likely that it comes to near-war blows...
     
  4. Roberto FREE SUSAN O.

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    Not neccesarily a Brit-Wank. They'd have much less influence in Europe, and they'd be very much more focused on North America to colonize elsewhere for a while.
     
  5. Tocomocho My other car is a steam tank.

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    From what I've read the plan for Lousiana was actually to give it back to Spain, not sure in exchange of what. That would mean a Lousiana connected to Mexico for a while.
     
  6. Valdemar II Banned

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    Norway for Swedísh Pommerania for East Friesland for Lauenburg?
     
  7. Paul Spring Should avoid Chat, but doesn't

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    Even if the Congress of Vienna fails to reach a conclusive agreement, I think it's more likely that the European powers will work out some kind of shaky peace rather than go to war again. As other posters have suggested, it might end up being a series of separate bilateral treaties rather than one broad peace settlement.

    Britain might have a little less influence on the continent without the 100 days and Waterloo.

    Prussia and Russia might agree to give all of Saxony to Prussia in return for Russia getting more of western Poland. Austria probably wouldn't like this, but they're not likely to go to war over it. I'm pretty sure that Austria would not give Galicia to Russia, though - as far as they're concerned, Russia has already pushed its frontiers too far west.

    Belgium going to Prussia doesn't seem very likely - Prussia was already getting a lot of valuable new territory (more than OTL with all of Saxony being absorbed), and I doubt the Prussian elite wanted to absorb another Catholic area on top of the Ruhr and northern Rhineland. Most likely, Belgium either goes with the Netherlands as in OTL, or it is given to one of the smaller German princely dynasties. It could even be given to Austria, but I remember reading somewhere that Austria was not interested in taking it back since it was considered too separated from the rest of Austria and too close to France to effectively defend.

    If the Vienna conference breaks up, Metternich would have less influence and there would be no attempt to set up a "Concert of Europe" to enforce conservative political values and prevent revolution. There will also probably not be a Russian-Austrian-Prussian friendship based on common conservative principles.

    The stronger rivalries in Europe might make it easier for revolutionary movements in the future, since powers like Russia and Austria would be less likely to come to each others' aid against revolutionaries. If the rivalries are intense enough, you could even see Russia or Prussia secretly encouraging Hungarian or northern Italian revolutionaries or Austria supporting Polish or Saxon uprisings.

    In North America, Britain will almost certainly be in a stronger position against the USA. How things turn out depends on the fortunes of war - anything from the US losing a lot of territory from the old Northwest and Louisiana purchase and the New England states splitting off, to an outcome not too different from OTL. In OTL Wellington declined an offer to command British forces in Canada shortly after Napoleon's first abdication, saying that he believed the long distances and limited infrastructure there made it impossible for the British to concentrate a strong enough force to win a really decisive victory.

    If New England split from the USA, I really doubt that it would want to rejoin the British Empire, or that the British would want them. It would become a small, somewhat prosperous country that would be firmly in Britain's economic sphere of influence.
     
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  8. Geordie NAME OF OWNER

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    Sorry, but would somebody mind elaborating this? I can't quite get my head around this series of swaps. :eek:
     
  9. Valdemar II Banned

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    Sweden "traded" their part of Vorpommern (much better name) for Norway in 1814, at Vienna in 1815 Prussia traded East Fiesland for Lauenburg which they then traded with Denmark to get Vorpommern.
     
  10. Geordie NAME OF OWNER

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    Thanks. I didn't realise you were giving an OTL example! :eek:

    I realised Vorpommen for Norway did happen, and this is what confused me...
     
  11. Faeelin Lord of Ten Thousand Years

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    Is a bourbon restoration really ineveitable?

    I am sure Metternich would not weep at the thought of Napoleon's wife as regent for Napoleon II...
     
  12. Thande A special man who knows these things Donor

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    Only if the British and (IIRC) the Austrians and Spaniards get their way. I believe the Prussians and Russians wanted some sort of new Bonaparte leader, possibly some situation like you mention.


    A few people have said that they don't think a new outbreak of war is realistic. But bear in mind that this is not like the later World Wars: the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars had been going on almost continuously for a quarter of a century, and indeed the century before that had seen more years in which major European wars were being fought than years of peace. War was a way of life to many people, indeed the peace was rather unpopular in some sectors of British society (traders who had grown rich from the blockade of Europe, naval captains who wanted prize money, soldiers whose regiments would be disbanded, etc.) Perhaps less so in continental Europe, which had been more battered by armies criss-crossing over it for decades, but it's not like starting up WW1 again in 1919...
     
  13. Susano Banned

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    Well, that was not one large swap - that is, it was in the end, once the Treaty was established, but it were several steps. Besides, Sweden already had conquered Norway, that wasnt sokething the Conrgess decided - the Congress only looked for ways to at least symbolicalyl compensate Denmark.

    Hannover was to swap land with Prussia, Lauenburg for East Frisia. Meanwhile, Denmark was to be compensated with Swedish Pommerania. Only when both was agreed on did Denmark and Prussia agree to swap Lauenburg and Swedish Pommerania.

    But no conclusive series. Some powers are too opposed, also ideologically, and some just have a grudge with current arrangments.

    There IS no more western Poland. At that point, Prussian Poland directly borders the Neumark, which is part of Brandenburg already. And I doubt Prussia would give up West Prussia, it is its landbrigde to East Prussia, after all.

    Im not so sure. They seemed ready to do so IOTL 1815, and 1866 again. They like to have their buffer against Prussia...

    For what? Prussia will NOT simply gift Belgium away. In 1814 they occupied and administred Belgium, it was theirs. Without a conclusive reordering of Europe, theyll want to have something in return for it. And what could the Netherlands offer? And in 1815 the Rhineland was NOT valuable. It was quite a lucky happenstance for Prussia that it then became so valuable wth the Ruhr or whatnot, but this is 1815 - the Rhineland is rural, and comparably backwards (after suffering for centuries by all the tariff barriers of the ministates there). Sure, other powers might grumble about Prussia gaining valuable Belgium, but I doubt they will go to war over that.

    They gained Lombardo-Venetia in compensatiom for it in Vienna... of course, in 1814, they already hold that. But then again, they can consider the Platainate and Fulda, which they also hold, as compensation.

    On the contrary. Without a conclusive agreement at Vienna, the porgressive western Great Powers will stand even more opposed to the conservative eastern Great Powers. The result will at the very leats be closer Russian-Prussian ties, and maybe even closer Russian-Prussian-Austrian ties (if Austria can get over Saxonys fate).

    Really? They wanted a Bonaparte? How... odd.

    I agree. In the 18th and 17th century there were by far more wartimes than
    peacetimes. But since the late 17th century, those wars did not really devastate the lands anymore (with exceptions, like what the French did to the Palatinate...). War was a fatc of life, but one that hardly touched the civilian population. Of course, one has to say that changed a lot in the French revolution, with the levee en masse, which basically all German states adapted, too, in in the reforms of the Rhine Cofnederation era. And the Revolutionary and Naoleonic Wars were devastating, in how they, well, depleted the manpower ressoruces, if not the land (or even that, in Russia).

    Still, OTOH, the Coalition Wars were won more or less in the fashion of the old 18th century cabinet wars, so the states might simply operate on that assumption. I dont think war weariness will be any factor, in any case.
     
  14. Olmeka Banned

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    In OTL Russia wanted to take whole Duchy of Warsaw.
    Britain was opposed to this.
    It got smaller area from which Congress Poland was made.
    If it gets whole Duchy then there is small possibility of Kosciuszko coming back to Poland as leader.
     
  15. pompejus Hertog van Gelre

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    About Belgium:
    I think that there were actually only 2 reasonable option for Belgium. Whatever happened belgian going to France is not going to happen, nobody, except France (and maybe parts of the Belgian population, but who will listen to what they want), wants belgium to remain French. After beating France nobody wanted France to keep that rich part of Europe. Austria didn't want to get it back. It was I believe generally decided that they wanted a strong country north of France, so an independent Belgium is extremly unlikely, as is a Belgium in the hands of some minor German power. So there only two options left: the Netherlands and Prussia.
    Susano is probably right that if Prussia wanted to keep them they would be able to. And in the worst case scenario for the Dutch they only got their old territories (Maastricht, Zeeuws vlaanderen, etc.) restored. Still I think that they have a good chance to get more.
    It seems to me that Prussia was never interested in the Belgian territories; at least I have never heard about Prussia trying to keep them, I have only heard about Prussia wanting to trade the rhineland for Saxony. This seems to suggest was more interested in lands east, closer to Prussia and Brandenburg then in the west (if someone has some source they weren't, please correct me). Also Willem I of the Netherlands was married to the sister of the ruler of Prussia (and his mother was also related to them), so relations between the Netherlands and Prussia were good (as they historical always have been).
    Therefore I could see the Netherlands getting at least part of Belgium. Maybe all of it, maybe Prussia keeps (the current Belgian provinces of) Liege and Luxembourg, maybe only some land connections to the Dutch exclaves, but I suspect they would get something.
     
  16. Gonzaga Well-Known Member

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    Then could maybe Prussia give to the Russian some parts of Silesia in exchange for Saxony? Although I agree with you, the idea of a "Tsar of All Russias and King of Saxony" is too fun to not be used!
     
  17. Susano Banned

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    Well, seeing as the Tsar internally (as oppsoed to the diplomatic level) calle dhimself Tsar of Poland hed probably call himself Tsar of Saxony, too.:D

    But yes, Silesia for Saxony might atcually work. Silesias not bad, but Saxony is more prosperous - while Russia certainly would go for the land directly bordering its possessions. The Russian Imperial Governate of Silesia... *shudders* Poor Silesians!
     
  18. Hapsburg Robrotrenominator

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    Now that's an interesting idea. A Bonapartist France that's a puppet of Austria?
    If that became the case, and they orchestrated more cousin-marriages, could the Imperial Crown of Austria and France merge in the next hundred or so years?
     
  19. Grand_Panjandrum Nattering Nabob of Negativism

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    The House of Hapsburg-Lorraine-Bonaparte? That sounds delectable!
     
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  20. fortyseven Mastermind

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    The Duke of Burgundy can actually hold Burgundy :D