1812: WI Napoleon Crushes Russian Army at Smolensk?

Anaxagoras

Banned
During the fighting around Smolensk in early August of 1812, Napoleon had several fine opportunities to catch the two Russian armies of Barclay and Bagration in positions where they might have been smashed. The best chance may have been in the days before the battle on the north bank of the Dnieper, where Napoleon could have abandoned his plan to cross to the south side of the river and simply launched an all-out assault on the disorganized and divided Russian forces.

What if Napoleon had achieved a decisive victory against the Russians, on the scale of Austerlitz?

IOTL, Napoleon's decision to press on after taking Smolensk was due largely to the fact that hehad not yet brought the Russians to battle and inflicted a significant defeat. If he had achieved this, might he have halted to reorganize his forces, which were suffering unimaginable logistical problems? Could the defeatist elements in the Russian court have prevailed and forced Alexander to open negotiations with Napoleon? f so, what kind of peace might have resulted?
 
I rember reading this and he seemed to think that the French weren't in position to launch the attack until it was too late, incomputence on the Russian side is needed
 
Hrmm. Okay, let's play this out. Nappy wins. And then?

The Rusisans might not surrender. They have forces elsewhere. Sweden still won't join the war. But they have been bloodied, and bloodied bad.

He could try to restore Poland-Lithuania. But how viable would that be?

And then there's Wellington, who has won in Spain.
 
Well before the battle Napoleon had a chance to trap Bagration and about 45,000 men but Nappy's little brother Jerome screwed it all up. Afterwards Napoleon envisaged a grand movement against Barclay and Bagration that had it succeeded would have mirrored Jena-Austerdadt but this was foiled by the stiff resistance by a Russian division and bungling by I believe Eugene but can't be sure. Napoleon also stop for a day then reviewed his troops on his birthday wasting more time.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The Rusisans might not surrender. They have forces elsewhere. Sweden still won't join the war. But they have been bloodied, and bloodied bad.

There was a larger defeatist faction at court, ready to make peace with Napoleon, than many people realize. I agree that the Russians might not have made peace immediately after such a victory, but if Napoleon halts the campaign for the season, then moves on St. Petersburg in the spring of 1813, I think there's a good chance the Russians will throw in the towel.

He could try to restore Poland-Lithuania. But how viable would that be?

Napoleon was under considerable pressure to do just that, and the Polish aristocracy on both sides of the Russian Empire's border would have supported it. Napoleon didn't do it IOTL because he didn't want to give Alexander an excuse for continued war, but if Alexander refuses to make peace even after a victory at Smolensk, Napoleon might change his mind.

And then there's Wellington, who has won in Spain.

Not quite. At the end of 1812, remember, Wellington had to retreat back to Portugal.
 
Originally posted by Anaxagoras
Napoleon was under considerable pressure to do just that, and the Polish aristocracy on both sides of the Russian Empire's border would have supported it. Napoleon didn't do it IOTL because he didn't want to give Alexander an excuse for continued war, but if Alexander refuses to make peace even after a victory at Smolensk, Napoleon might change his mind.
OTOH among Polish aristocracy there was a signifinact group of conservatives who were affraid of Napoleon and considered him too liberal for their tastes. Anyway, I think there was a good chance for restored PLC, or perhaps Kingdom of Poland (Duchy of Warsaw + some gains in the east) as faithful French ally and watchdog in the east. DoW gave Napoleon the biggest non-French contingent in the Grand Army and for that could expect some reward, especially if it was in France's interest.
And after that - the great deathmatch: Napoleon with his army of experienced veterans against Wellington....
 
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