Assuming there is a situation where due to butterflies dating back to the 1780's the US is able to perform much better. It's summer of 1814 and the US has held Upper Canada and half of Lower Canada for about a year. An attempt by the British to attack Washington/Baltimore has just barely failed, and there is no eastern Maine or New Orleans campaign in the works. There is no prospect of a British campaign to recover Upper Canada in the immediate future, or elsewhere outside of Lower Canada
At this point there are peace negotiations going on. What is a more likely outcome? 1) Britain conceding the US position regarding impressment and naturalization 2) Britain ceding Upper Canada or 3) Continuation of the War
Edit: By Ceding Canada I mean Upper Canada only, messed up poll