1812 Peace Concessions Plausibility Check?

Which outcome seems more likely given the situation described?

  • Britain conceding on Impressment and Naturalization

  • Britain Ceding Canada

  • War Continues

  • Obiligatory Thande Option


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Assuming there is a situation where due to butterflies dating back to the 1780's the US is able to perform much better. It's summer of 1814 and the US has held Upper Canada and half of Lower Canada for about a year. An attempt by the British to attack Washington/Baltimore has just barely failed, and there is no eastern Maine or New Orleans campaign in the works. There is no prospect of a British campaign to recover Upper Canada in the immediate future, or elsewhere outside of Lower Canada

At this point there are peace negotiations going on. What is a more likely outcome? 1) Britain conceding the US position regarding impressment and naturalization 2) Britain ceding Upper Canada or 3) Continuation of the War

Edit: By Ceding Canada I mean Upper Canada only, messed up poll
 
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I think the first option is more desirable for both parties, ceding Canada creates further hostilities between the two countries and wasn't really the point of the war.
 
With the Napoleonic Wars winding down impressment is less necessary so giving up on it isn't a major concession on Britain's part, the question is if this more successful US would accept such a peace. I suspect it wouldn't and would press for territorial concessions that Britain wouldn't be eager to give.

EDIT: That's assuming Napoleon is on the ropes, if not then the circumstances in Europe will determine everything.
 
The British OTL conceded the Orders in Council, which they felt enough of a concession, but never touched the object of impressment, and I don't think they would even be willing to talk about it if the War in Europe is still concluding on time, since all the negotiators understood the end of the war in Europe ended the practice. I doubt you could get a Naturalization as part of a peace treaty since its a pretty thorny issue. If the American invasions of 1813 are less of a shambles and they managed to push on to Montreal. By 'half of Lower Canada' I'm assuming that you mean they've taken Montreal, but Quebec is still in British hands. Without the campaigns in Maine and New Orleans you've got what I assume is Pakenham's historical force available for a thrust south along the St. Lawrence, even if the attacks on Washington and Baltimore barely fail, the attack up the St. Lawrence will be one of the major axis here. If the US doesn't hold Quebec, the war continues.
 
Question: What's happened with Nappy in Europe? That's really going to be the determinant of British reactions.
As OTL more or less
The British OTL conceded the Orders in Council, which they felt enough of a concession, but never touched the object of impressment, and I don't think they would even be willing to talk about it if the War in Europe is still concluding on time, since all the negotiators understood the end of the war in Europe ended the practice. I doubt you could get a Naturalization as part of a peace treaty since its a pretty thorny issue. If the American invasions of 1813 are less of a shambles and they managed to push on to Montreal. By 'half of Lower Canada' I'm assuming that you mean they've taken Montreal, but Quebec is still in British hands. Without the campaigns in Maine and New Orleans you've got what I assume is Pakenham's historical force available for a thrust south along the St. Lawrence, even if the attacks on Washington and Baltimore barely fail, the attack up the St. Lawrence will be one of the major axis here. If the US doesn't hold Quebec, the war continues.
More or less The Americans hold Montreal, and have since early 1813 and have been forced to call off a siege of Quebec by Pakenham's reinforcements
 
As OTL more or less
More or less The Americans hold Montreal, and have since early 1813 and have been forced to call off a siege of Quebec by Pakenham's reinforcements

That sounds about right for a continued war scenario then. So long as the British have an avenue to hit back they will, and I don't see the Liverpool government (if it still is the Liverpool government) being as forgiving in TTL when they've just beaten Napoleon and have a lot of ships and soldiers to throw around. Wellington might feel compelled to intervene in North America this time, or Liverpool would be more insistent.
 

Lusitania

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By stating that US with a POD in 1780 does somehow better in 1812 that would of meant a different US with a much stronger Federal Government and an actual army and navy to both take on the British and be in the position you are indicating. That implies a huge different USA and one cannot help but feel that this US would not of been dragged into war by the War Hawks in Congress. It would of also meant that a stronger military US would of resulted in British having increased its military in North America in response to a more stronger and more aggressive US prior to 1812. Therefore I find it hard to think we would of been in same situation in 1812.

Now while British maybe occupied in Europe it would not of looked kindly to the American attempt to annex British North America. It would of been a huge slap in the face from a upstart little country in the New World. Therefore it would of continued to fight the Americans and bring its navy on the American coasts bombarding additional coastal cities. Think more Washington DC. Till Europe was resolved and tens of thousand of troops available to be deployed to America.
 
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