1787 - Prussia doesn't invade Netherlands

In OTL, Prussia invaded the Netherlands with the blessing of the Stadtholder to eject the Patriots from power. In general, the Patriots wanted to reform the government (although within the confines of the existing order), reduce the power of the Stadtholder (especially in the context of the Stadtholder's increased power since 1748), and were somewhat Francophilish.

In 1787, they controlled 4 out of 7 provinces in the Netherlands, with a largely stable front running between them and the Orangists. In OTL, Princess Wilhemina (?), Stadtholder William V's wife, decided to go to Hague on her own to raise the princely banner and reclaim the command of the city's garrison for William (which had been revoked). She was of course detained once she crossed the front, but newly crowned Frederick William of Prussia, who was related to her, took this as an insult and after much vacillating decided to invade the Netherlands.

Now, let's assume for whatever reason either Wilhemina doesn't try to go the Hague or Frederick William decides against intervention, the Netherlands remains untouched. At the point, the Patriots were beginning to talk of a National Assembly to represent the people (as opposed to the States-General) and were beginning to contemplate more radical ideas. Can the Patriots seize the rest of the country, and can they reinvigorate the Dutch Republic? Thoughts?
 
I htink they have a good shot; and the Dutch Revolution wasn't, and wouldn't, be as bloody as France's.

Hrmm. The butterflies are huge, but could see we Revolutionary Holland arrayed against Revolutionary France?
 
I htink they have a good shot; and the Dutch Revolution wasn't, and wouldn't, be as bloody as France's.

Hrmm. The butterflies are huge, but could see we Revolutionary Holland arrayed against Revolutionary France?

I don't think they would be enemies immediately. While certainly they don't have as much in common as would be first expected, the Patriots looked to France as their allies, and Revolutionary France at least sort of aided the Patriot exiles. They would at least remain friendly until the king is deposed, then the relationship will probably be reevaluated.
 
This thread is oddly apropos of the novel / TL I am planning now. :eek: But now for something completely productive:

Now, let's assume for whatever reason either Wilhemina doesn't try to go the Hague or Frederick William decides against intervention, the Netherlands remains untouched. At the point, the Patriots were beginning to talk of a National Assembly to represent the people (as opposed to the States-General) and were beginning to contemplate more radical ideas. Can the Patriots seize the rest of the country, and can they reinvigorate the Dutch Republic? Thoughts?
The problem is that this wasn't just a matter of invading to restore Wilhelmina's honor, the Prussians just used that as a pretext to invade. The Patriots had entered into a defensive alliance with France, and Britain was subsidizing a Prussian invasion to disrupt French designs on the area. Frederick William would have just found another casus beli to start the war.

But either if he somehow doesn't, or maybe if the French send men to defend the Netherlands and aid the Patriots, things could turn out differently. The Prussian military in this era was in a steep decline, and an easy victory over the weakened Dutch in OTL just led to more complacency. With French aid, there is the possibility of a Prussian defeat, in which case the Patriots will continue to rule. But they were weakened by internal fractions. IIRC the more radical Patriots wanted a Dutch republic similar to that of the United States, with equality and no nobility. This caused a rift with the moderate nobles and burghers, who merely didn't want William V on the throne.

Something interesting that occurred to me is: what would happen to the Dutch colonies with the Patriots continuing to rule. IIRC the Boers / Dutch in the Cape Colony were pro-Patriot, and later partisans of the Batavian Republic. The VOC would go bankrupt AIOTL and be nationalized by the Patriots. But I could see the British taking Ceylon ITTL to weaken Patriot influence in India.
 
This thread is oddly apropos of the novel / TL I am planning now. :eek: But now for something completely productive:


The problem is that this wasn't just a matter of invading to restore Wilhelmina's honor, the Prussians just used that as a pretext to invade. The Patriots had entered into a defensive alliance with France, and Britain was subsidizing a Prussian invasion to disrupt French designs on the area. Frederick William would have just found another casus beli to start the war.

But either if he somehow doesn't, or maybe if the French send men to defend the Netherlands and aid the Patriots, things could turn out differently. The Prussian military in this era was in a steep decline, and an easy victory over the weakened Dutch in OTL just led to more complacency. With French aid, there is the possibility of a Prussian defeat, in which case the Patriots will continue to rule. But they were weakened by internal fractions. IIRC the more radical Patriots wanted a Dutch republic similar to that of the United States, with equality and no nobility. This caused a rift with the moderate nobles and burghers, who merely didn't want William V on the throne.

Something interesting that occurred to me is: what would happen to the Dutch colonies with the Patriots continuing to rule. IIRC the Boers / Dutch in the Cape Colony were pro-Patriot, and later partisans of the Batavian Republic. The VOC would go bankrupt AIOTL and be nationalized by the Patriots. But I could see the British taking Ceylon ITTL to weaken Patriot influence in India.

That's not the impression I got from what I was reading. Frederick William vacillated for quite a while, even after he heard of what had happened to Wilhemina before deciding to intervene. I certainly don't think he was looking for a reason to intervene. Besides, for the most part they were still under the impression that the French would protect the patriots, so they were risking general war (or so they thought).

As to the Boers, I know that there were tensions between the company and the farmers. If there weren't revolts going on right now, there had been in the past, as the company was not giving much representation to the residents.
 

Thande

Donor
This is an oft-overlooked WI and well done for bringing it up.

It has repercussions for British politics as well. OTL William Pitt the Younger was lauded for his foreign policy triumph for setting up an alliance with Prussia and facilitating this as part of a broader strategy to safeguard Hanover. If it doesn't happen, and the Nootka Sound Crisis still happens (where Pitt badly miscalculated the Russians' response and was criticised) this might lead to an upheaval in British politics and perhaps even a new PM.

If one wants to be optimistic, this could also either delay the French Revolution (if one takes what Napoleon said about Marshal Saxe to be true) or alternatively provide a more moderate revolutionary model in the Netherlands for the French to emulate and avoid Jacobin extremism.
 
This is an oft-overlooked WI and well done for bringing it up.

It has repercussions for British politics as well. OTL William Pitt the Younger was lauded for his foreign policy triumph for setting up an alliance with Prussia and facilitating this as part of a broader strategy to safeguard Hanover. If it doesn't happen, and the Nootka Sound Crisis still happens (where Pitt badly miscalculated the Russians' response and was criticised) this might lead to an upheaval in British politics and perhaps even a new PM.

If one wants to be optimistic, this could also either delay the French Revolution (if one takes what Napoleon said about Marshal Saxe to be true) or alternatively provide a more moderate revolutionary model in the Netherlands for the French to emulate and avoid Jacobin extremism.

As to the British, I'm not well-versed in the politics at this time, who would replace Pitt?

I do not think that the French Revolution will be delayed though. The French are already trying to deal with the financial crisis that will send them to oblivion at this point, and there is nothing here that will directly solve that crisis. The Estates-General will be convened if the crisis is not resolved, and if the Estates-General are convened, that starts the whole chain reaction.
 
Nice toppic.
There will be some trouble in the republic, even up to the scale of civil war.
Not between the Patriots and the Regenten, they were easy to tople. Since they were detoriated in a knid of over corrupt oliargy. The troubles would come between the Patriots and the Orangist/ decentralist.
The Patriots would like to make the next step, in nation building, they saw that the confedration, as the republic was, need some centralisation. Only this centralisation was denied by the Regenten and the Orangist.
Prusia does not invade the Republic. The Patriots win a small civil war like of war.
I think there first acts will make some uniform mint, and some standardisation in all sort of things and taxes of course.
When all interior is more or less centralised and settled the almost bankrupt VOC and total bust WIC possesion will be subject of a centralised rule.
I gues despite the clouds of Revolution and civil unrest the Republic would emerge stronger, maybe even finaly united with the Austrian Netherlands in a kind of Union after the Brabant revolt.
If they can stand a dictator as Napoleon remains a question, suposing this kind of figure emerge from a French revolution.
 
Nice toppic.
There will be some trouble in the republic, even up to the scale of civil war.
Not between the Patriots and the Regenten, they were easy to tople. Since they were detoriated in a knid of over corrupt oliargy. The troubles would come between the Patriots and the Orangist/ decentralist.
The Patriots would like to make the next step, in nation building, they saw that the confedration, as the republic was, need some centralisation. Only this centralisation was denied by the Regenten and the Orangist.
Prusia does not invade the Republic. The Patriots win a small civil war like of war.
I think there first acts will make some uniform mint, and some standardisation in all sort of things and taxes of course.
When all interior is more or less centralised and settled the almost bankrupt VOC and total bust WIC possesion will be subject of a centralised rule.
I gues despite the clouds of Revolution and civil unrest the Republic would emerge stronger, maybe even finaly united with the Austrian Netherlands in a kind of Union after the Brabant revolt.
If they can stand a dictator as Napoleon remains a question, suposing this kind of figure emerge from a French revolution.

Considering that the Orangists are supported by the under-class who work the docks and other types of intensive labor, we could see the Orangists mobilizing the mobs to overthrow the Patriots. The Free Shooters will probably be able to protect the Patriots, but there could be a lot of bloodshed if the Orangists wish it.
 
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