1783 POD: what's inevitable by this point?

hey, all. alot of you have probably noticed that most of my threads reference one of my two big TL projects--either my ASB ATL or the more plausible Anglo-American Rivalry--so some of you might have an inkling as to what some of each TL might look like

now, for this thread, i wanted to ask what everyone thinks is inevitable by the POD in Anglo-American Rivalry--that being September 3 1783 (though its really more just "when the events of the TL begin" rather than "some big event takes place which defines this as being an ATL"). from the second the Treaty of Paris is signed by the US, Britain, and the other powers involved, the butterfly effect commences, but because no actual change is made then, i personally assume that no exceptionally huge changes will take place until much later (to the effect of "Hamilton is elected in 1808" rather than "Jefferson and Hemming's lovechild becomes president")

that said, one thing i want to make sure of before i go much further in actually writing the damned timeline is figuring out exactly what effects would happen anyway considering the POD. i doubt the Americans and British having some antipathy between them would have any effects on Africa at least until the Europeans start investing heavily in the continent, for instance, so succession of monarchs as far away as Persia or keep Emperor Meiji from being born.

basically, what events had already been set in motion by September of 1783 and what subsequent events caused by those would thus happen anyway? another thing is what events would likely not be hit by the butterfly effect soon enough to be affected all that greatly? you could probably imagine the butterfly effect not kicking in until the mid- to late-19th century depending on how far away someplace is from the US and/or UK
 
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Thande

Donor
The obvious one is the French Revolution. Maybe not happening in EXACTLY the same way as OTL, but French finances are definitely going to blow up within a decade by that point.
 
The obvious one is the French Revolution. Maybe not happening in EXACTLY the same way as OTL, but French finances are definitely going to blow up within a decade by that point.

Yes, indeed. You would need major well-thought out additional POD's to preserve the French monarchy. Although, Marie Antoinette dying in childbed could help already.

Other ideas:
- take-off of the Industrial Revolution on the British Isles; too far underway to actually being stopped
- invention of steamboat and railroad - are hanging in the air already -> Cugnot 1769 and others
- partition of Poland (I do not see a possibility for them to stop their neighbours)
- decline / crisis of Prussia (Prussia has reached a certain "ceiling" of its internal development, only a major push from inside or outside can bring them to reform at this point of time)
- changes in the Holy Roman Empire (doesn't need to be as unceremoniously dissolved, but reform was in the air during the late enlightenment, if any kind of popular patriotism appears, changes are bound to happen)
- next Franco-British War (Revolution and Nappy hid that, but the English will take revenge on the frogs for 1783!)
- dissolution of the Dutch empire (Holland more and more lacks the economical basis for such widespread possessions, England or France will mob them up once the other is not looking; or during the next Franco-British war)
- fashion: I would say that the trend towards less wigs, longer pants and rather wearable women's clothing is underway already in 1783.
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Thande

Donor
- dissolution of the Dutch empire (Holland more and more lacks the economical basis for such widespread possessions, England or France will mob them up once the other is not looking; or during the next Franco-British war)
That's a strange thing to call 'inevitable' when it didn't happen in OTL... ;)

(Well, the British did occupy the Dutch Empire in the Napoleonic Wars, but most of it except the Cape got returned).

- fashion: I would say that the trend towards less wigs, longer pants and rather wearable women's clothing is underway already in 1783.
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Those trends were indeed already in motion but some of them were accelerated by William Pitt the Younger's economic policies when he became Prime Minister in 1784, he recouped the national debt by a series of luxury taxes on things like wig powder that was the last nail in the coffin of what was already a declining fashion.
 
Yes, indeed. You would need major well-thought out additional POD's to preserve the French monarchy. Although, Marie Antoinette dying in childbed could help already.

I don't see a possibility to avoid the French Revolution at this point. France is heavily indebted, the nobles will never agree to new taxations so the Etats Généraux would have to be called, Louis XVI (and his brothers) personnality is already what it will be 6 years later, so they will oppose the revolution with all their power. Marie-Antoinette is often cited but she is totally irrevelant to the situation.
 
Marie-Antoinette is often cited but she is totally irrevelant to the situation.

As to what she did or did not, absolutely.

As to what she came to represent, she is a millstone around her husband's neck in the 1780s. She was basically tailor-made to fulfil the needs of Anti-monarchical agitation.

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Concerning the Dutch, Ceylon also got lost during that time.

I could put it another way: the Dutch Empire won't make a true comeback after 1783.
 
As to what she did or did not, absolutely.

As to what she came to represent, she is a millstone around her husband's neck in the 1780s. She was basically tailor-made to fulfil the needs of Anti-monarchical agitation.

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Concerning the Dutch, Ceylon also got lost during that time.

I could put it another way: the Dutch Empire won't make a true comeback after 1783.

Perhaps the best way to phrase it: The Dutch are doomed to be a second tier Colonial Power at best.
 
The obvious one is the French Revolution. Maybe not happening in EXACTLY the same way as OTL, but French finances are definitely going to blow up within a decade by that point.
Perhaps having Lafayette being more successful in ensuring the survival of a constitutional monarchy as opposed to Napoleon rising to power.
 
Perhaps having Lafayette being more successful in ensuring the survival of a constitutional monarchy as opposed to Napoleon rising to power.

That require changes in Louis XVI's personality and behavior. The Flight to Varennes did much to discredit any idea that the King was willing to cooperate with reforms. Plus the radicalism was pretty much unleashed at that point, with Anti-Clericalism being one of the major issues that alienated the king.

Louis XVI has to be a different person instead of the timid and reserved man that he was. Not impossible, but he needs a different upbringing than OTL.
 

Thande

Donor
Perhaps having Lafayette being more successful in ensuring the survival of a constitutional monarchy as opposed to Napoleon rising to power.

Yes, I was going to say that 'the fall of the monarchy' is not completely inevitable (though likely) because there is some possibility of a constitutional settlement, but it's certainly inevitable that there have got to be big changes--"the French Revolution" did not start with Louis XVI's head being cut off, in the early part it was about constitutional monarchy, so I think it's fair to say that "the French Revolution is inevitable by 1783".
 

Thande

Donor
The organisation of the First Fleet, which iirc, was sent to New South Wales sometime around 1787-8

I suppose I could see that being averted if was broke out at an inconvenient time, but 'the use of Australia as a penal colony' seems inevitable considering its recent discovery and the loss of the American colonies as a dumping ground for convicts.
 
I'd say Romanticism is unavoidable as well, even if the French Revolution manages to be a lot less violent than it was OTL. Ultimately the utopian excesses of the Enlightenment are going to ring hollow, and there's going to be a reaction to it.
 
I suppose I could see that being averted if was broke out at an inconvenient time, but 'the use of Australia as a penal colony' seems inevitable considering its recent discovery and the loss of the American colonies as a dumping ground for convicts.

Sure, but it is a very long ways away and a reasonable effort to establish, maintain and support. I could see it very easily being put in the "maybe later bucket", that gets thrown overboard with other slop.
 
I'd say Romanticism is unavoidable as well, even if the French Revolution manages to be a lot less violent than it was OTL. Ultimately the utopian excesses of the Enlightenment are going to ring hollow, and there's going to be a reaction to it.
I feel like we're going to see a split between the more licked, academic, and high-flown in subject neoclassicism and the more emotive and painterly(for lack of a better word) "Romantic" painters as well; David was well at work by now and would paint the Oath of The Horatii in a year, Fuseli was already working, and the Reynolds/Gainsbourogh split foreshadowed this. Other things I see as very likely culturally:
1) There will probably be luddites in any Industrial Revolution TL and there is a good chance of a turn to the handcrafted and the antique(recall that the Gothic Revival started in the mid-18th century).
2) Cultural exchange with Japan, and its massive consequences, will happen TTL reasonably soon. At this point, Japan is getting more and more interested in Western technology and material products and is consolidating as a power; also I suspect that "Opening" Japan is now a when and not an if.
3) Something very much like the Impressionists will emerge-that is, a painting built around the new industrial and urban order with a novel means of depiction, quite possibly using the "flattening" of the impressionists. It seems to me that somehow the tensions within late 18th-19th century painting need to be resolved and the challenged posed by photography will have a serious effect
4) Photography will be invented soon-ish. We already have the camera obscura, photosensitive chemicals, and substantial interest in automatic drawing(c.f. the shlihouette process) Several people were converging on the solution as well, like Niepce, Daguerre, and Fox-Talbot, which is always a a good sign. And this will matter enormously-scientifically and culturally.
 

Thande

Donor
I'd say Romanticism is unavoidable as well, even if the French Revolution manages to be a lot less violent than it was OTL. Ultimately the utopian excesses of the Enlightenment are going to ring hollow, and there's going to be a reaction to it.
Most probably true, although the precise form Romanticism takes may be different. In terms of broad sweeping trends in cultural movements I agree.

Sure, but it is a very long ways away and a reasonable effort to establish, maintain and support. I could see it very easily being put in the "maybe later bucket", that gets thrown overboard with other slop.
But at this point there aren't really any other options for a penal colony...
 
Perhaps the best way to phrase it: The Dutch are doomed to be a second tier Colonial Power at best.
That's certainly true, but it is hardly unavoidable that they lose the Cape colony or Ceylon. With a no or even a different French revolution it is actually pretty likely. The Netherlands was slowly moving towards (armed) neutrality. See for example the Netherlands not fighting in the 7-years war. If the Netherlands avoids going to war with Britain they will probably keep the OTL lost colonies. Even fighting a small scale war would work, the Dutch merely lost a small Indian outpost during the 4th Anglo-Dutch war after all.

But you are right. What the Dutch had in the late 18th century is more or less the maximum the Dutch can keep (even if they manage to gain more territory like for example Flanders somehow). Sure some small enlargement can happen (like control of all of Indonesia as OTL) is certainly possible, but no big swats of Dutch Africa or Dutch Indo-China etc.
 
Most probably true, although the precise form Romanticism takes may be different. In terms of broad sweeping trends in cultural movements I agree.


But at this point there aren't really any other options for a penal colony...

Aside from not having one at all?
 
Sure, but it is a very long ways away and a reasonable effort to establish, maintain and support. I could see it very easily being put in the "maybe later bucket", that gets thrown overboard with other slop.
British policy could go in the opposite direction, maybe garner more support and perhaps an increase of ships and people/convicts to Australia in 1787-1788 and even in later fleets.
 
I don't see a possibility to avoid the French Revolution at this point. France is heavily indebted, the nobles will never agree to new taxations so the Etats Généraux would have to be called, Louis XVI (and his brothers) personnality is already what it will be 6 years later, so they will oppose the revolution with all their power. Marie-Antoinette is often cited but she is totally irrevelant to the situation.

Marie Antoinette was important if only because she was incredibly unpopular and dragged down the monarchies reputation because of that.
 
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