1778: The American Annus Mirabilis

In contrast to the British South, what about 1778 as an American Annus Mirabilis?

There were several possibilities for the French and Americans to inflict devastating blows on the British this year. A few near misses, which kept America from dealing death blows to the British. It's easy to see how each could lead to each other.

1) A victorious battle of Monmouth. This was damn close as it was, and with better leadership (Maybe General Lee dies in prison, and Lafayette leads American forces?) it’s easy to see a significant fraction of General Clinton’s troops captured.

2) Suppose Admiral D’Estaing’s fleet arrives in America a few days earlier? Mere days after Clinton’s army was carried from Sany Hook, New Jersey, to new York, Admiral D’estain’s fleet arrived on the scene. Had the French arrived only a few days earlier, they would have trapped Admiral Howe’s fleet, and General Clinton’s army. This could arguably be tied into a victorious battle of Monmouth, but it doesn’t have to be. You merely need the superior French fleet to make contact as Clinton tries to evacuate off of Sandy Hook.

3) Victory at Newport! Newport was garrisoned by 6,700 men under Colonel Robert Pigot. In July Washington and the French planned to trap the forces in the city, and the French managed to blockade the city. In OTL Washington left General Sullivan, who botched the Battle of Brayndywine in charge, despite pressure to appoint General Gates. General Sullivan promptly botched the assault. The original plan called for simultaneous landings by the Americans and the 4,000 Frenchmen under D’Estaing, but Sullivan landed a day early, and on August 9the British fleet under Admrial Howe, which had been reinforced by ships from Britain and the West Indies. But if Howe’s fleet had been destroyed off Sandy Hook, as almost happened….

In other words, we could see, by the end of August, 1778, approximately 17,000 British troops in North America killed or captured, with both Generals Clinton and Cornwallis captured.

Thoughts?
 
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I remember reading in Washington: A Life that the only reason several British ships destined to slice Washington's army in two at New York failed to do so was because the wind was blowing in the opposite direction, sending the ships off course.

The war could have been over at the point in the war. But the weather changed the entire outcome.




 
Well, the immediate questions would be:
[1] Is that enough to bring Parliament to a decision on the war in North America?
[2] How will Europe, uniformly hostile to British strength, respond to the perceived weakness?

It seems to me that there are two probable outcomes to the former question. This might be this TL's 1781, settling the national war for America, but not the colonial one for Britain. Alternately, it might simply demand an immediate change of strategy, likely resulting in an earlier attempt in the South.

To the latter question, it's hard to say, except that certainly advantage will be taken. In OTL virtually the entire continent was circling like a flock of vultures.
 
Interesting I am not knowledgeable on the ARW. But what do you think such outcome would change for France and the US?
 
Some thoughts, and I'm not familiar enough to specifically say these are undoable.


1) While you might see a real American victory here, I don't think you'd see Clinton's army bagged.

The day is too hot and the British fighting ability too tough to just be gobbled up.

Broken, yes. Destroyed, no. Still, even a mere rout is lovely.

2) Here's a question. How is Howe's fleet going to fare vs. D’Estaing?

3a) Gates is hardly a better tactician than Sullivan.

3b) This might be possible. It's the one I'd bet on, assuming D'Estaing was a capable admiral and cooperative with the Americans (two assumptions I'm not sure of the validity of).
 
Amusing how the board shortens this to "The American Annus..." and its not QUITE what you see when you just glance at the board!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Another event of note during this year is John Paul Jones' raid on Whitehaven. Might a more successful raid, on top of the events already mentioned, make the British seriously consider peace?
 
2) Here's a question. How is Howe's fleet going to fare vs. D’Estaing?

Howe had six sixty-four gun ships, three fifty guns, two forty-four gun frigates, and five smaller frigates. The French had one ninety gun, one eighty gun, six seventy-fours, three sixty-fours, one fifty, and five frigates whose armament I can't find. Some sources also indicate that Howe's ships were low on men, but take that FWIW. Total disparity in armaments: 834 French guns to 534 British guns.

The French navy of the Revolution performed quite capably, as Yorktown, Suffren's exploits in the east, and the Caribbean theater suggest. As Fox put it in the House of commons, Had teh French Fleet arrived but six days sooner, it would have destroyed the naval power adn glory of Britain.


What's with the Gates hate?
 
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Howe had six sixty-four gun ships, three fifty guns, two forty-four gun frigates, and five smaller frigates. The French had one ninety gun, one eighty gun, six seventy-fours, three sixty-fours, one fifty, and five frigates whose armament I can't find. Some sources also indicate that Howe's ships were low on men, but take that FWIW. Total disparity in armaments: 834 French guns to 534 British guns.

The French navy of the Revolution performed quite capably, as Yorktown, Suffren's exploits in the east, and the Caribbean theater suggest. As Fox put it in the House of commons, Had teh French Fleet arrived but six days sooner, it would have destroyed the naval power adn glory of Britain.


What's with the Gates hate?

The French navy under other admirals, but not necessarily this one.

Gates hate?

This will do: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Camden

The battle itself, and what lead up to.

Does that make him one of the worst generals of the 18th century? Maybe not. But all I said was "No better than John Sullivan" as a tactician.

"In OTL Washington left General Sullivan, who botched the Battle of Brayndywine in charge, despite pressure to appoint General Gates. General Sullivan promptly botched the assault." you said. Well, Gates's record of botching is at least as disasterous than Sullivan's and probably worse.

Whatever else can be said to his credit, tactics were not Gates's strength.
 
I don't know, you have to balance Saratoga against Camden. What does Sullivan have?

Howe isn't exactly Nelson either.
 
Another event of note during this year is John Paul Jones' raid on Whitehaven. Might a more successful raid, on top of the events already mentioned, make the British seriously consider peace?
As it was, or so I've heard, that raid resulted in Britain deciding to keep rather more warships back for home defence and commerce protection than had previously been the case and thus meant that there were then fewer vessels available for operations along the American coast.


The French navy of the Revolution performed quite capably, as Yorktown, Suffren's exploits in the east, and the Caribbean theater suggest.
At times, yes, in fact at one stage a combined Franco-Spanish force actually managed to push the Royal Navy out of the English Channel! However the French navy of that period (and, for that matter, the Spanish one too) was notoriously less hygienic than the British -- even by the relatively low standards, as we would see them today, of that period -- and thus more prone to losing manpower through sickness... In fact, that's what happened to their fleet in the Channel that I just mentioned: Before it could escort any French invasion force across, as I gather might have been hoped-for by the French leadership, an epidemic of some kind broke out on shipboard and caused such heavy losses that it had to retreat back to its harbours while there were still enough sailors left fit to carry out that operation...
 
Another event of note during this year is John Paul Jones' raid on Whitehaven. Might a more successful raid, on top of the events already mentioned, make the British seriously consider peace?

All it would take is JPJ's men waiting to get drunk until AFTER they set the fires and making sure someone brings extra lamp oil or, barring that, they take the oil from somewhere other than a pub. Even if they fail to take out all or even a majority of the 200-400 ships anchored in Whitehaven that's going to be a HUGE blow to the British merchant fleet, morale, and means to supply operations in America. You can also bet the emphasis on coastal and commercial defense would be doubled or even tripled, making life harder for troops in the colonies and giving the French fleet more of a free hand.
 

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Let's say option # 2 or option # 3 happens -

My betting is that this would turn out to be, as Admiral Matt phrased it, this TL's 1781, settling the American national war for independence.

Fighting may continue at a low-level in America, but mostly around the edges.

Meanwhile, the colonial war continues.

For the ensuing five years, and the outcome of this war, is this more likely to turn out to the advantage of Britain, or the Bourbon powers?

What kind of treaty would the Americans be likely to get from Britain? As good as 1783 or not? Better than 1783?
 
The political ramifications in Parliament are huge. Lord Germain is sacked for this, and a new SecState Colonies is needed. It is possible that North will be forced out of the PM's chair - Yorktown did for him OTL, this might do it here. If Parliament revolts against North, that puts it at odds with George III (whose confidence in North is unshaken).

My money's on Lord Shelburne for PM and Welbore Ellis for SSC. They'll put forth bills to raise taxes and recruit more men to put down the rebellion (it's much too early for independence to seriously be considered), which will be incredibly divisive and unpopular. Shelburne may favor a direct attack on France, the so-far-only foreign power supporting the rebels, which would be...exciting (and even more unpopular than a tax increase, I suspect). Between wildly unpopular bills and a lack of active support from the King, I expect this administration to last less than a year. That's enough time for Spain and Holland to jump in; peace (with independence) may be possible in late 1780.
 
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