16th Century Hapsburg Empire Without New World Gold/Silver

Anaxagoras

Banned
How would the Hapsburg Empire have fared in the 16th Century had it not had access to the gold and silver it obtained from the conquest of the Aztec and Inca Empires in the New World?
 
It's quite possible that there would have been no "Hapsburg" empire. Only two Hapsburgs had sat on the Imperial throne prior to the discovery of the New World, and it was their continued wealth, among other factors, that allowed them to marry into various dominions, acquire their crowns, and dominate the Electoral College. Take away that wealth and the Imperial diadem might circulate to other great families of Germany.
 
Actually, better than it seems at first : while the american metals went straight to italian banks to guarantee and pay for large armies and din't improved that much their possibilities, it benefitied as well their ennemies eventually while ruining local mines.

So, it would be a metal lack situation (Late Medieval Europe was on the edge of monetary starvation, which have been an economical collapse), that would have been likely compensated with African gold (while not at the same scale, of course), whom trade roads were controlled by Portugal, Spain and Venice.

You would end with a poorer Habsburg dominion, not able to finance huge armies and fleets, but their opponents would lack capacities as well.
 
You've also probably butterflied away the death of Juan of Asturias and possibly the marriage of Katherine of Aragon to Arthur of Wales. This might mean that England could stay Catholic, with the end result that the Protestants of northern Germany lack a strong patron state throughout the 16th century, which might see their movement become marginalized, thus ending a lot of headaches for the Holy Roman Emperors, whoever they might be.
 
You've also probably butterflied away the death of Juan of Asturias and possibly the marriage of Katherine of Aragon to Arthur of Wales. This might mean that England could stay Catholic, with the end result that the Protestants of northern Germany lack a strong patron state throughout the 16th century, which might see their movement become marginalized, thus ending a lot of headaches for the Holy Roman Emperors, whoever they might be.
Surely the North German Protestants will still be able to rely on their main historical supporter, France. Even without New World gold, the French are going to feel threatened by being surrounded by Hapsburg powers, and want to take action to weaken them. Later on the Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden may get involved as well.

England's importance in the German Wars of Religion was far less significant than it was in France or the Netherlands, and even there it was quite probably replaceable. Between the death of Henry V and the Glorious Revolution (with a brief revival under Cromwell), the English Army was generally a joke by continental standards, and English finances were far less able to support the massive foreign subsidies that it would use in later centuries.
 
Surely the North German Protestants will still be able to rely on their main historical supporter, France. Even without New World gold, the French are going to feel threatened by being surrounded by Hapsburg powers, and want to take action to weaken them. Later on the Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden may get involved as well.

England's importance in the German Wars of Religion was far less significant than it was in France or the Netherlands, and even there it was quite probably replaceable. Between the death of Henry V and the Glorious Revolution (with a brief revival under Cromwell), the English Army was generally a joke by continental standards, and English finances were far less able to support the massive foreign subsidies that it would use in later centuries.

Well, it's very probable that the threat of Hapsburg encirclement will not exist ITTL, because there will be no Charles V. The religious situation is going to be entirely different, because the geopolitical alliance network predicated on Hapsburg marriages, which were largely fueled by New World gold, is not going to happen. John of Asturias is probably not going to contract TB and die, even assuming Joanna does marry Philip the Handsome, their child will not be King of a united Spain, which means no Spanish repression of the Dutch Protestants...everything is going to be very different.
 
Well, it's very probable that the threat of Hapsburg encirclement will not exist ITTL, because there will be no Charles V.

Why? Yes Hapsburghs definitely benefited from american gold for military and diplomatic expenses (actually, they had such needs of gold they reopened peninsular mines in the middle of XVI century), but in the same time, they fueled a run to expense with opponents.

While the valor considered would have been lowered, a Spain controlling Sudan ways, a Germany controlling the most important european mines under Christian sphere...I don't think it would prevent them to search to reach such importance (even if OTL hegemony is unlikely)

For John of Asturias, I don't see any good reason on why he would avoid tuberculosis. Admitting that a PoD would require no Spanish presence in Americas, what changed so much in Europe that he magically avoid it. In 1497, he's dead, unless the PoD manage to both prevent this and american gold.
 
For John of Asturias, I don't see any good reason on why he would avoid tuberculosis.

Because he's a member of a family whose fortunes were enormously transformed by the discovery of the New World. None of these people are going to be in the same place as OTL in this 1497. Their travel arrangements, the rooms they stay in over the course of the previous five years, the paths they take when they go out for their evening strolls or whatever--all of these things are going to be totally different. His contracting tuberculosis in that particular place and time is something that can, with almost total certainty, be said to be butterflied away by this POD. So unless you think he's somehow "fated" to die of tuberculosis in 1497, he'll die at a different point and time. That might be earlier, it might be later, but it's going to be different.
 
Because he's a member of a family whose fortunes were enormously transformed by the discovery of the New World. None of these people are going to be in the same place as OTL in this 1497.

Before the opening of peruvian mines, the discovery of Americas means almost nothing regarding the ammount of gold in Europe, even with mexican gold. The OP considering nothing outside a PoD without american Gold (that would likely mean no Spanish conquest of Mexico in 1519, no conquest of Peru in 1530's) I don't see how it could affect retroactivly John's death in 1497.

Considering as the title of the thread is "16th" (aka 1501-1600) "Hapsburg" (aka not only Spain), I think we can avoid pointless discussion about this, and assume that the author wanted to talk about a PoD happening after 1501 and with a background where Habsburg dominion is a thing or more less "fated" to happen.

And even if a change could happen sooner, the butterfly effect isn't an excuse for "everything can happen for no reason whatsoever". The most likely outcome, is that everything happen as OTL if not touched directly or indirectly by the change.

A TL where both Jonh lives on and Spain doiesn't get a hand on American gold could be, thanks to a common PoD, yes. It's not what the OP asked for.
 
I think you're right in that the lack of a firm POD makes debate on this topic difficult. Perhaps Anaxagoras could firm it up for us, and propose a specific POD? Because the only ways I can see to have the Hapsburg Empire not get the New World gold are to a) have them not conquer Mexico and Peru (something that given the massive depopulation due to infectious disease seems so unlikely as to stretch the boundaries of plausibility), b) for there to be no gold there in the first place (in which case this should be in ASB), or c) for Europeans not to discover the New World at that particular time, but have it pushed back by a few decades. And if that last one happens, then there will be no Hapsburg empire, because the Hapsburgs won't marry into the Spanish line.

But I agree, not having an actual POD makes debate largely pointless and at cross-purposes.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I think you're right in that the lack of a firm POD makes debate on this topic difficult. Perhaps Anaxagoras could firm it up for us, and propose a specific POD? Because the only ways I can see to have the Hapsburg Empire not get the New World gold are to a) have them not conquer Mexico and Peru (something that given the massive depopulation due to infectious disease seems so unlikely as to stretch the boundaries of plausibility), b) for there to be no gold there in the first place (in which case this should be in ASB), or c) for Europeans not to discover the New World at that particular time, but have it pushed back by a few decades. And if that last one happens, then there will be no Hapsburg empire, because the Hapsburgs won't marry into the Spanish line.

But I agree, not having an actual POD makes debate largely pointless and at cross-purposes.

Well, for the sake of discussion, assume that the POD is no Spanish conquest of the Aztecs and Incas.
 
Then, most probably, you'll have Spain controlling one of the roads towards Sudanese gold and silver, competing with Portugal (that would benefit from having access to Indias) and Venice.

Having control of german silver mines would help, and could actually give Hapsburg a clearer advantage as it's probable that gold wouldn't replace silver as monetary metal (possible more affirmed prevalance of thaler).

Now, without american gold, Hapsburg diplomacy would have to be more seletcive, and they couldn't afford such big armies : while their other western opponents would be eventually touched by this (not that quickly however, and Valois could be even more of a pain in Imperial ass), Ottomans are going to have a better deal.

Without Lepante-scale fleet in Christian side, you'll likely have a more important Ottoman domination of Mediterranea that could actually challenge enough Venice to replace its decline due to the arrival of american metals.
However, if Spain and Portugal continues their efforts to control western African roads including terrestrial ones, it could end with an ingoing Reconquista in Morocco.
 
Another thing to Consider: Who does end up with the American Gold?
If it isn't the Habsburgs, who is it? Is it because the Aztek/Incan Empires aren't conquered at all? Conquered by someone else? Are they still conquered by Spain but Spain isn't part of the Habsburg Empire which would fulfill the question in technicality but probably not in spirit?

Is this the followup thread to that thread that happened a couple days ago wondering about who Columbus would sail for if not for Spain?

After all, if it's not the Habsburgs, but one of their major enemies like France, then they'll probably do worse. If it is someone like England who might actually be willing to ally with them against France they may manage to get the Economic Benefits of massive amounts of Native Gold without the eventual drawbacks, or both to a lower degree.
 
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