1655 Chinese invasion of Japan

Your forecast for Chinese invasion to Japan:

  • Japanese will beat back the invasion and conquer China

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trurle

Banned
8 May 1644, Kanmon Straits, near Shimonoseki

The Combined Tokugawa Shogunate army have started ferry operations since early morning. The straight was dotted with multiple boats, junks and even rafts. The two lines of picket boats, each wielding a strange-looking device, a combination of the wheeled wagon and the cannon, were covering the flanks.
Finally a a boat carrying a Tokugawa Iemitsu departed the Honshu coast and lead to Moji camp, covered by a dense formation of the boats filled with bodyguards. Suddenly, a half-dozen falcons fly off from the top of the 150-meters high Moji hill overlooking the ferry route.
The man in left-most picket boat, with his face displaying a peculiar mix of Japanese and Chinese traits, turned briskly, to his obviously European-looking partner.
- We are in range, right? Even with buckshot..
- Half of rhumb to port..Fire!

The Tokugawa Iemitsu did not die easily. The buckshot balls have "just" penetrated his intestine, and he seen everything. The suicidal charge on the picket boats. Bodies blown apart by point-blank cannon shots. A plunging fire from siege mortars hidden on Moji hill. One after another wave of boat attacks against these "gunboats". The samurai hacking the gunboats crews (these Hizen traitors to stay in Naraka forever!) to pieces. Dispersed boats rushing to Moji coasts. A clanging of weapons, shouts and deafening blows of bombs thrown by siege mortars. The lights on the Chinese pirate vessels back in the straits. What he did not see (at least while he was alive) is the retreat of this shattered army back to Honshu island. Overall, out of 200,000 army, less than half have managed to return home. Enemy losses were just few thousands, and Shogunate did not manage to take that damned Moji hill. They took the Funa-jima, right..after twelve assaults. By the time Moji was outflanked, the Army was low on arrows, food, forage, gunpowder..on nearly everything. Even worse, the dysentery have started to take its toll.

Meanwhile, in Kagoshima Castle..
- I still suspect we are making an error. Recruiting a pirate Dutch-Ming alliance after they openly racketeered us..is not going to end well. What they need is our gold, not our well-being. Coastal fortifications are not going to save us. We need some high quality army and fleet, but where? Dutch will close on our throats and intercept all our communications. - the face of Mitsuhisa Shimazu was grim.
- We still can ask the Portuguese. They will be happy to restore their influence in Shimabara, and they have no other allies in the region. So less danger for us. Or send a mission to Joseon Korea for covert help. After all, we got dragged into war against Qing, right?
- Yes, definitely. I hope at least these "falconet" things in Kanmon straits will prove their worth. We chiefly need a few years to prepare the neutralization of the Shogunate threat. Too bad the Sadamasa Ise in no longer with us..i need his advice too much.

P.S. Falconet cannons were in use in Europe since at least 1547, but their adoption for the naval warfare was slow because of the low availability of smaller (~50mm caliber) models safe for wooden-hull ships. Wide adoption of falconets for pre-boarding "softening" volleys has happened only about 1680.

P.P.S. The Koxinga (a son of Zheng Zhilong), among with some Dutch military advisers, have died in the battle of Kanmon Straits. IOTL, he will expel Dutch from Taiwan, create Tungning Kingdom, and resist advancing Qing for years. In this ATL, will anybody take his place?
 
There were potentially more possible outcomes of a successful Qing invasion of Japan.

The Qing could stay, or it could get pushed out of the country after a few years of occupation.

The Qing could withdraw after a successful campaign, and keep a tamed Japan as a tributary state in the line of Korea and Vietnam. It might require the creation of a "King" of Japan and thus jeopardizing the position of the true monarch in Kyoto.

It could also, alternatively, try to impose the Tusi System and gradually integrate Japan into the Qing Empire.

Even if the conquest was successful and complete, Qing rule of Japan could still face the prospects of rising discontent in the coming age of nationalism.

But none of these were very likely, because the Qing had neither the resources nor the intention to wage a war against Japan.
 
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trurle

Banned
But none of these were very likely, because the Qing had neither the resources nor the intention to wage a war against Japan.

Well, this thread has evolved from the more broad AHC of invasion to Japan as the most plausible scenario.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...qing-china-invade-japan.391816/#post-12624379

Main challenge here is to create coalition of forces motivated and powerful enough to invade Japan. And to create a political momentum to keep invasion running well after initial reasons will expire. But i tend to agree. Long-term occupation of Japan by Qing is the least probable outcome due to lack of motivation and insufficient force projection.

By 1644, ATL major players in the area (by order of decreased strength):
Qing, Ming, Joseon Korea, Tokugawa shogunate, Dutch, Portugal, Spanish, Satsuma, Russia

The formation of wealthy yet vulnerable Satsuma state (and its unreliable allies in Northern Kyushu, Ming and Dutch) may act as a fuse to the powder charge.
 
Well, this thread has evolved from the more broad AHC of invasion to Japan as the most plausible scenario.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...qing-china-invade-japan.391816/#post-12624379

Main challenge here is to create coalition of forces motivated and powerful enough to invade Japan. And to create a political momentum to keep invasion running well after initial reasons will expire. But i tend to agree. Long-term occupation of Japan by Qing is the least probable outcome due to lack of motivation and insufficient force projection.

By 1644, ATL major players in the area (by order of decreased strength):
Qing, Ming, Joseon Korea, Tokugawa shogunate, Dutch, Portugal, Spanish, Satsuma, Russia

The formation of wealthy yet vulnerable Satsuma state (and its unreliable allies in Northern Kyushu, Ming and Dutch) may act as a fuse to the powder charge.
Why is Joseon considered stronger than Japan?
 
Iemitsu and Koxinga are dead. :eek:
Now here comes the butterflies.

I suspect Formosa will be divided between the Spanish and the Dutch (though I hope to see the island as part of the Spanish East Indies).

Why is Joseon considered stronger than Japan?

Military-wise, Japan is stronger. But they're still disunited while Joseon, while militarily weaker, has a united, centralized state. And a big ally.
 

trurle

Banned
21 November 1644, Beijing. The Shunzhi Emperor of Qing has been invested as the "Son of Heaven" (Emperor of China).

In the aftermath of the event, a long row of vassals wishing to submit to the ascending power. Now at the head of the row is Zheng Zhilong.

- Therefore, i submit my life, my fleet, my land in Fuzhou and Tungning, and tributary states of Ryukyu and Satsuma to your supreme power. Hope your reign will be long and peaceful.

Meanwhile, in swordsmanship academy near Sunpu Castle, Shizuoka

Yui Shosetsu is talking with his student,
- Fight for whom? Tokugawa Ietsuna is just 3 years old. Its the blood-thirsty, insane Elders who push to use us as cannon-fodder, again and again. And even if we win this time, no gratitude, no respect, no land, no work..just meager money to survive until next meat-grinder.

Meanwhile, in port Sasebo, Nagasaki.

The Portugese ambassador, translator, and the board of Satsuma Alliance leaders are on the board of Portugese galleon.

-Gentlemen, you should understand what our country is still in the middle of the Acclamation War. We can lend any moral support, few experts, may be even wheel-locks your are asking for..but not the insane amount of warships. Right now we fended off all major Spanish attacks, but still there is no indication the Spanish will is broken. Leaving our coast without sufficient protection at this stage would be silly.

-We can increase the amount of slaves sold to you by 30%. With the condition they will stay in Japan.

-For what? Goods they can manufacture here are not requested much in Europe.

-May be just to reduce your expenses. As the head of Satsuma Domain, I have the authority to offer your sailors a generous land lots on Amakusa island, where you can grow your own food, timber and other expendables, with already numerous Christian inhabitants.

-This makes a difference. Say, if you include Sarayama town on west coast, we can make a deal. Two galleons next time, one for gold and porcelain, and one to patrol our..err..your coasts. And we can bring a specialist for bronze die-casts you need.

P.S. IOTL, coronation of Qing has happened 3 weeks earlier, but Zheng Zhilong submitted to them only in 1646. And of course, he had no tributes gathered from Ryukyu and Satsuma. Death of strongly pro-Ming son Koxinga have led to Zheng Zhilong`s decreased threshold for "switching sides".

P.P.S. Keian uprising of 1651 (where Yui Shosetsu played a prominent role) has happened in 1651 IOTL, triggered by death of Iemitsu Tokugawa. In this ATL, Iemitsu died 7 years early..so would-be rebels will need some time to heat up and think out.

P.P.P.S. Tokugawa Shogunate already had galleon-building capability since 1613 IOTL . Unfortunately, problem was what Japanese goods were actually not needed abroad, and even slave trade was well into decline. Therefore, these expensive Japanese galleons were destroyed one after another, and it was too expensive to build a new ones. Also, in this ATL, technological chain for galleons production was split between Satsuma and Edo. Both sides will have a hard time to recover a skills necessary to build a large warships again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Juan_Bautista_(ship)
 
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Why is Joseon considered stronger than Japan?
Because the Japan is now divided.
Military-wise, Japan is stronger.
By the late 17th century, approximately three-fourths of provincial Choson armies (well, one army for which the records survive) were musketeers. This means that central armies (which receive more funding) would have been almost ubiquitously musketeers, in an era where only 30~40% of Qing armies were armed with firearms and only 10% of Burmese or Javanese troops had guns. As the Qing noticed, "the Koreans are incapable on horseback... [but] excel at infantry fighting, especially in musketeer tactics." Furthermore, their accuracy was almost unprecedented; one Korean commander during Qing campaigns against the Russians recorded the results of practice sessions which suggest that the average musketeer had a 66.2% chance of shooting an enemy 45 meters away and that the best musketeers had a 79.8% likelihood of shooting an enemy more than 70 meters away. More basically, Tokugawa Japan was demilitarized relatively early on, while Choson Korea remained militarized for most of the 17th century.

Man to man, the Choson army was at least equally effective - I would say more effective, although I don't know enough about the Tokugawa military to say that definitively - as the Tokugawa one by the 1640s OTL, even disregarding Japanese division ITTL. Don't confuse the 1592 Choson army with the 1644 one (also, the Manchu defeated the Choson mainly through their cavalry, especially the mobility advantage it gave them - the Koreans had a few days to really prepare for the 1636 invasion - while the Japanese do not have this advantage).
 

trurle

Banned
By the late 17th century, approximately three-fourths of provincial Choson armies (well, one army for which the records survive) were musketeers. This means that central armies (which receive more funding) would have been almost ubiquitously musketeers, in an era where only 30~40% of Qing armies were armed with firearms and only 10% of Burmese or Javanese troops had guns. As the Qing noticed, "the Koreans are incapable on horseback... [but] excel at infantry fighting, especially in musketeer tactics." Furthermore, their accuracy was almost unprecedented; one Korean commander during Qing campaigns against the Russians recorded the results of practice sessions which suggest that the average musketeer had a 66.2% chance of shooting an enemy 45 meters away and that the best musketeers had a 79.8% likelihood of shooting an enemy more than 70 meters away. More basically, Tokugawa Japan was demilitarized relatively early on, while Choson Korea remained militarized for most of the 17th century.

Man to man, the Choson army was at least equally effective - I would say more effective, although I don't know enough about the Tokugawa military to say that definitively - as the Tokugawa one by the 1640s OTL, even disregarding Japanese division ITTL. Don't confuse the 1592 Choson army with the 1644 one (also, the Manchu defeated the Choson mainly through their cavalry, especially the mobility advantage it gave them - the Koreans had a few days to really prepare for the 1636 invasion - while the Japanese do not have this advantage).
You also should not overlook the numerical disadvantage of Koreans. Japan in 1644 has 24 millions population, while Joseon had at most 15 millions. It mean less food, less supply, less standing army etc. Actually musketeers of period were the soldiers of the poor - needed less expensive training, equipment and supply compared to cavalry, but still can be adequate in the limited set of tactical situations (i.e. defensive in forts or in open together with pikemen).
 
You also should not overlook the numerical disadvantage of Koreans.
Certainly, that's why I said "Man to man, the Choson army was at least equally effective." In a long war the superiority of the Japanese in manpower and resources will make them increasingly more formidable. On the other hand, if you pick 10,000 Choson troops from Hanyang and 10,000 Tokugawa troops from Edo in 1650 and put them on an empty field, I find it plausible that the Choson would win. Additionally, population in itself is not everything - the Choson most likely had a larger proportion of its population in active military service (unlike the rather demilitarized bushi of the Tokugawa era).

On the other hand, it's not true that musketeers in Choson Korea were universally soldiers of the poor. The musketeers of the capital were elite troops, extremely rigorously trained (they were much more accurate than European musketeers, and it's said the Russians would "sigh in fear" after seeing the Koreans) and - as mentioned - making up the vast majority of the Choson army, which did not have very much cavalry. Additionally, the Korean technique of using swordsmen and archers in rotating positions to support musketeers gave them much versatility.

EDIT: But I'm diverting the timeline, so I'll stop here.
 

trurle

Banned
27 March 1646, Edo.

The fire was raging. Sparks leaped from building to building, on the terraces around castle, across riverlets and channels. The explosions, which initially hurled flaming debris blocks ahead, were long subsided.

- Here they are! - a group of soot-covered warriors, majority of them unmounted, appeared on the street where efforts to demolish a mansion to make a firebreak were underway - It is the Elder!
The the demolition team, lead by Nobutsuna Matsudaira, bristled with swords in response. A chaotic scene ensues. Clanging of swords, musket shots from the attics, war shouts, screams of wounded forgotten and now slowly burning. Slowly, shouts gave way to cought and screams, as people tried to escape..to no avail. The fire has already encircled combatants, burning everybody regardless of political affiliations. Few men escaped suffocating smoke and crisping heat by hiding in the cellars, but Nobutsuna Matsudaira was not that lucky. His body was never identified, as well the reason for his death.

30 March 1646, Edo Castle

-Now let`s summarise. Were were in the serious jeopardy. - Abe Tadaaki spoke - The arson was widespread though poorly planned. The ronin conspirators have severely underestimated the strength of the wind, together with the initial spread of debris from gunpowder charges. Also, the idea of decimating the ruling elite by riding along the front of fire and shooting..was unwise at best. Horses were scared to death, and dismounted soldiers were unable to advance as far as they hoped. Also, at least one rebel party was killed off when they were stuck fighting Matsudaira`s escorts in the middle of the fire. The subsequent assault on Edo castle was poorly coordinated and severely understrength. But even understrength, our men were outnumbered 5 to 1. The fact what we were able to hold the central building until reinforcements from Tanzawa area arrived, is mostly luck.

P.S. IOTL Keian Uprising of 1651 (which failed before initiation) was one of the several related incidents across the world using the still unfixed security breeches related to the black powder control. Most famous of these was Gunpowder Plot in 1605. Of course, chances for successful Keian uprising in Japan were nil as the assailants of the Shogunate lacked a legitimacy (with no major Edo-based land-owners supporting a rebels cause)
 
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trurle

Banned
After thinking this timeline out, i decided what the developments are going to be very long, therefore better to place a timeline instead of narrative.

23 March, 1638: early death of Tadatsune Shimazu
12 April, 1638: Mitsuhisa Shimazu (lord of Satsuma domain) participate in the suppression of Shimabara rebellion
1 September, 1640: A gold rush in Kagoshima
15 March 1642: Dutch pirates/traders based on Taiwan have decided to racket Kagoshima (Satsuma) instead of campaign against Spanish Formosa.
Sometimes 1643: Satsuma domain formally declares independence from Tokugawa Shogunate
8 May 1644: Naval battle of Kanmon Straits between shogunate on one side and Satsuma-Ming (Zheng Zhelong)-Dutch-Saga (Hizen) alliance. Koxinga and Tokugawa Iemitsu are killed in action, and Shogunate invasion to Kyushu is stalled.
21 November 1644: Ascension of Qing to Chinese throne. Zheng Zhilong defects from Ming to Qing. Therefore, Longwu Emperor did not even exist. The Ryukyu and Satsuma are claimed as Qing tributary states. Satsuma Domain strike a cooperation deal with Portugese. Li Zicheng is killed in July 1644 instead of escaping. Overall, Ming positions are much weakened compared to OTL.
27 March 1646: Keian Uprising in Edo (unsuccessful, but highly damaging). With Nobutsuna Matsudaira killed in uprising, the Shogunate took a hard stance against rebels, resulting in severe marginalization of ronins in Japanese society.
21 August 1646: The last Ming claimant to throne (prince of Lu) is killed in Zhejiang.
18 February 1647: Battle of the Seto Inland Sea between Shogunate-Dutch and Satsuma-Portugese forces. Satsuma wins, resulting in naval bombardment of Hiroshima. The Christian Japanese are firmly entrenched in Western Kyushu with Portuguese support.
1648: Due to heavy losses to Portuguese and Dutch forces in region, Spanish Formosa colony is still surviving. (destroyed in 1642 IOTL)
1649-1652: Escalating arms race in the region. All states (except for collapsing Ming) are heavily building European-inspired warships. Galleons and galleon-junks are becoming the norm. A lot of castle-building in Kyushu, with Satsuma leaders slowly switching from Ming to Qing support.
3 March 1652: the collapse of the Ming organized resistance (has happened in 1662 IOTL).
16 March 1652: Second battle of the Kanmon Straits. Satsuma-Portuguese fleet is thoroughly routed by huge (over 500,000) Shogunate army. Sieges of the Kitakyushu, Karatsu, Hakata and Dazaifu by Shogunate forces. First recorded usage of Joseon Korean "mercenary" musketeers on the Satsuma side.
1653: Qing has started to supply mercenaries to Satsuma-Portuguese cause. Extensive gold mining in Kagoshima as several new gold deposits are discovered. Nearly all gold is used to pay for foreign weapons and mercenaries.
1654: Heavy fighting in Mount Aso and Amakusa regions threatens to collapse Satsuma alliance defenses. Christian Japanese guerrilla are active across Northern Kyushu.
1 April 1655: The Qing formally declares war to the Shogunate with a casus belli stated as "protection of our tributary states of Satsuma and Ryukyu islands".
24 May 1655: Joseon Korea strike a formal alliance with a Russian Empire against Qing. Qing is nearing bankruptcy as fleet expenses are becoming unbearable. Only Satsuma gold keeps the Qing finances afloat.
17 June 1655: Qing Chinese fleet lands at Himeji, starting a Siege of Himeji Castle. Breakdown of Dutch-Portuguese-Qing-Satsuma alliance. Christian rebellion in Amakusa. Mobs are razing Dutch concessions in shogunate-controlled Nagasaki and Fukuoka.
29 June 1655: Joseon Korean forces with Russian support wins against Qing at Mudanjiang.
6 December 1655: Qing army routed by Shogunate at Himeji. Many are killed by storms during retreat to Kyushu bases.
9 February 1656: Further setbacks for Qing in Jilin province against Russian-Korean forces.
15 March 1656: Spanish launch a campaign against Dutch Formosa.
7 July 1656: The "Tanabata Phoney Battle": after a tense stand-off, Dutch-Satsuma-Qing transport fleet is turned back by Shogunate after the attempt to pass by Sadamisaki Peninsula unnoticed fails.
1657: The Qing sign a series of peace treaties, abandoning territorial claims in Ryukyu and Satsuma.
24 May 1657: Satsuma Alliance, now have lost all the European partners and with gold mines severely depleted, officially surrenders to the Tokugawa Shogunate in exchange for prosecution immunity for the rebellion leaders. The war is over.

Net difference with the OTL:
1) Taiwan is thoroughly Spanish (Chinese IOTL)
2) Goto islands and Amakusa are Portugese Protectorate and Catholic Christian (Japanese IOTL)
3) Parts of Eastern Manchuria (especially Jilin provinces) are divided between Russia and Korea.
4) The Sakoku (seclusion) policy of Japan is reverted. Most likely, the Japanese future will resemble more that of Ethiopian Empire.

Conclusion: in the fight between Japan and Qing China both have lost, making a territorial concessions to the foreign powers only peripherally related to the conflict. Most winning party was the Spanish who just exploited the attrition of the more active combatants.
 
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